Has McCain actually already LOST?(Yes he has)

[Patrick Degan]

Just read another MSNBC story about the Gimp's little Two-Minutes Hate rallies against Obama. Day by day, bit by bit, the GOP becomes more Nazi-like in its essential attitude toward the rest of the country and the world.

[Qwerty 42]

RCP is showing Missouri back on the other side of the toss-up line, in McCain's hands. Although it's still well within margin of error, it's the first rightward shift in a while.

[CmdrWilkens]

RCP is showing Missouri back on the other side of the toss-up line, in McCain's hands. Although it's still well within margin of error, it's the first rightward shift in a while.

The other side of that coin being that if we are worrying about whether Obama wins Missouri or not then he already has the election.

[Jon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8F9rzKW_bY

^What a sorry bunch of people. Whatever happens McCain is going to regret these last few months of campaigning I'm certain.

[Civil War Man]

Just read another MSNBC story about the Gimp's little Two-Minutes Hate rallies against Obama. Day by day, bit by bit, the GOP becomes more Nazi-like in its essential attitude toward the rest of the country and the world.

It gets better.
MSNBC

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, Obama remarked on recent outbursts of "Traitor!" "Terrorist!" and "Kill him!" at McCain campaign events. "It's easy to rile up a crowd," Obama said. "Nothing's easier than riling up a crowd by stoking anger and division. But that's not what we need right now in the United States."

In response, McCain senior adviser Nicolle Wallace released this statement, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. "Barack Obama's assault on our supporters is insulting and unsurprising. These are the same people obama called 'bitter' and attacked for 'clinging to guns' and faith. He fails to understand that people are angry at corrupt practices in Washington and Wall Street and he fails to understand that America's working families are not 'clinging' to anything other than the sincere hope that Washington will be reformed from top to bottom."

"Attacking our supporters is a new low for the campaign that's run more millions of dollars of negative ads than any other in history."

*** UPDATE *** McCain campaign spokesman Brian Rogers adds in another statement: “Barack Obama’s attacks on Americans who support John McCain reveal far more about him than they do about John McCain. It is clear that Barack Obama just doesn’t understand regular people and the issues they care about. He dismisses hardworking middle class Americans as clinging to guns and religion, while at the same time attacking average Americans at McCain rallies who are angry at Washington, Wall Street and the status quo."

Wow. Just wow.

[Darth Fanboy]

Thought some of you guys might find this interesting. Looking at this article on reuters about the Palin abuse scandal revealed that McCain's approach might be changing somewhat, and that some polls are not as close as they were a month ago. I'll post the full article per forum rules, but I will highlight the relevant portions.

By Caren Bohan

CHILLICOTHE, Ohio (Reuters) - An Alaska ethics inquiry found on Friday that Gov. Sarah Palin, the U.S. Republican vice presidential candidate, abused her authority by pressuring subordinates to fire a state trooper involved in a feud with her family.

The finding cast a cloud over John McCain's controversial choice of running mate for the November 4 election. On the day it was published he reined in an aggressive strategy against Barack Obama that had failed to cut into his Democratic rival's lead.

After a week in which he and Palin fiercely attacked Obama and inflamed supporters by urging them to question his fitness to be president, McCain switched to a milder tone, calling on frustrated loyalists to respect the Illinois senator.

Supporters appeared surprised by his conciliatory approach, booing at a Minneapolis rally when he told a skeptical backer that Obama was a "decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared (of) as president of the United States."

The Alaska inquiry centered on whether Palin's dismissal of the state's public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, was linked to her personal feud with a state trooper who was involved in a contentious divorce with the governor's sister.

The inquiry found that while it was within the governor's authority to dismiss Monegan, Palin violated the public trust by pressuring those who worked for her in a way that advanced her personal wishes.

"Governor Palin knowingly permitted a situation to continue where impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda, to wit: to get Trooper Michael Wooten fired," the report said.

The investigation was commissioned in July by Alaska's Legislative Council composed of 10 Republican lawmakers and four Democrats.

ALASKAN SCANDAL

The scandal gained national attention after Palin, 44, who was little known outside of Alaska and has virtually no national or international experience, was selected to be McCain's running mate in August.

The McCain-Palin campaign dismissed the report, saying it was a "partisan-led inquiry run by Obama supporters," and Palin and her family had been justified to be concerned about the behavior of the trooper.

Palin "acted within her proper and lawful authority in the reassignment of Walt Monegan," a campaign statement said.

McCain, 72, made clear the shift in his approach during a rally in Lakeville, Minnesota, when supporters frustrated by his drop in the polls urged him to be a fighter at the next debate with Obama.

"We want to fight and I will fight. But we will be respectful. I admire Senator Obama and his accomplishments," McCain said.

While a number of questioners expressed concerns about Obama, one woman went further. "I don't trust Obama. I have read about him. He's an Arab," she said, echoing a false assertion that has crept into some right-wing Internet blogs.

McCain shook his head in disagreement and cut her off, grabbing the microphone back. "No, ma'am. He's a decent family man, (a) citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues," he said.

On Monday, Palin had told a joint rally with McCain in Florida: "I am just so fearful that (Obama) is not a man who sees America the way you and I see America."

"FEAR MONGERING"

Critics say that line was especially pointed because of its potential subtext. Obama, 47, would be the first black president and his background, including part of a childhood spent in Indonesia, is different from that of most Americans.

He has accused the Republicans of fear-mongering.

The attacks by McCain and Palin have failed to stop a gradual increase in Obama's lead in polls as he focused on policies to cope with the international financial crisis.

A Newsweek poll published on Friday gave Obama an 11-point lead over McCain at 52-41 percent. A month ago this poll had the two candidates tied at 46 percent. Other polls in the most contested states have also shown a swing toward Obama.

The election campaign has been overshadowed by the escalating international financial crisis, partly driven by the collapse of the U.S. housing market. Stock markets around the world plummeted again Friday.

A majority of Americans tell pollsters they trust Obama more than McCain to handle economic issues.

Campaigning in battleground states key to the election, both candidates offered proposals to try to ease the strain on Americans from the market meltdown that has cost investment portfolios billions of dollars.

I can't tell if McCain is trying to pander to people who dislike the negativity of his campaign so far, if he is being a hypocrite, or if he is trying to look "mavericky" by distancing himfrom what other right wingers are saying. For all I know he's being genuine, not that it matters since even if I did agree with him more than Obama I still wouldn't vote for him based on his atrocious VP choice.

[Covenant]

I can't tell either, but I saw the moments on TV, and they seemed more genuine than anything he's done this year. I think it may have finally gotten too vile for him to stomach, and he just had to hit some breaks, knowing that it's basically his soul on the line. And for McCain, his soul means his reputation and legacy. He doesn't want to go down in history as one of the worst, most feeble and hateful old men of America, especially not against one of the most successful insurgency campaigns seen by one of the most charismatic young American leaders yet.

[The Spartan]

Hmmm, I wonder if it could be that he realizes that he's probably going to lose, but since he can't give up wants to begin mending bridges so that when he goes back to being a leading Senator he's able to work with President Obama.

Or perhaps he's just flipped his lid again and needs to retire so that senility can take hold fully.

[CmdrWilkens]

Who knows if it will stick around is the question. If he is still concilliatory after the Monday debate THEN I think we can call it a change of heart but until that point we've seen the McCain campaign lurch between so many different narratives and campaign talking points that I just don't know if this one will stick with us for more than a few days. The other obvious question is whether Palin is capable of being concilliatory. She already has serious issues with staying in message (e.g. Michigan) and now with Troopergate stainign her credentials even further I don't know if she will be inclined to actually reel it in. Everything about her history suggests that she is likely to use the old Gingrich playbook and start attacking everybody and try to play the victim card.

That aside it might be an honest switch with mcCain realizing he has so little of a chance, or at least that he absolutely has to have a game changer on Monday night. Without something which dramatically shifts the narrative next week there just isn't enough time left for him to make an impact. We have three weeks worth of narrative left. The sunday talk shows on Nov 2nd will be all expectation shows and Monday won't matter except to set expectations on news broadcasts for Tuesday. Simply put the campaigns have until Nov 1st to make their case to the public after which their ground game is all that is left to tweak. Within the three weeks let this next will be driven by troopergate and the debate while the final week very likely will be driven by Obama's massive ad buy. That means McCain has to nullify the debate and make it enough of a positive to outweigh the troopergate report and then use next week to launch a 6-7 point national comeback just to have a chance.

[Tribun]

After seeing the latest RCP Average, I can conclude, that McCain's tactic has blown up in his face. The latest RCP Average is 7.1 in Obama's favor, and it propably will become even higher, since the new Rasmussen poll hadn't been worked into it yet.

I guess my fears were wrong, McCain actually reduced his chance to win with the dirt.

[The Spartan]

After seeing the latest RCP Average, I can conclude, that McCain's tactic has blown up in his face. The latest RCP Average is 7.1 in Obama's favor, and it propably will become even higher, since the new Rasmussen poll hadn't been worked into it yet.

I guess my fears were wrong, McCain actually reduced his chance to win with the dirt.

Not surprising to me in retrospect. I've been panicking lately, too, that he'd somehow pull it off, but with the economy tanking and him switching into "RAR! LIBERALZ!" mode to play the various cards that come with that and deciding to play the racist dog-whistle one at that instead of just sticking with how he'd save everyone turned off enough of the independents that might have voted for him. And since he was already falling behind at that point because of his retarded VP pick, well, he all but guaranteed an Obama victory.

I've heard it said that people ultimately vote for their pocketbook; looks to be holding true in this case.

[RedImperator]

McCain's reaction Friday afternoon seemed genuine, especially if you remember how he reacted the first time someone called Obama a terrorist at one of his rallies: he actually recoiled, and looked as if he was about to say something. But then, of course, he pressed on, and of course, Governor Demagogue was full steam ahead for the entire week.

Why did McCain back it off? I suspect there's a number of things happening. First, his concept of personal honor is very important to him, and he may have realized he's been irrevocably damaging it running this kind of campaign. Second, it's possible the hate and anger he's been ginning up has started to scare him; McCain is smart enough to understand that you can't keep a tiger on a leash. Third--and I wouldn't count this out, McCain being a politician--the attacks weren't working. His negatives are going up (and Palin now stands at -18 favorability; between this nasty campaign and Troopergate, she may well have squandered her future in national politics if her ticket loses this year), Obama's poll numbers are going up, independents are fleeing the Republican column in droves, and the whole campaign looks desperate and out of touch--the Dow plunges 18% and the best they have is pointless bullshit about Bill Ayers.

[Tribun]

Update: They now did factor in Rasmussen. Now it is an even more damning 7.4 in Obama's favor.

Now, I ask you guys honestly: is there any chance McCain can still turn this into his favor, apart from the Apocalyse hitting the U.S.?

[Duckie]

After seeing the latest RCP Average, I can conclude, that McCain's tactic has blown up in his face. The latest RCP Average is 7.1 in Obama's favor, and it propably will become even higher, since the new Rasmussen poll hadn't been worked into it yet.

I guess my fears were wrong, McCain actually reduced his chance to win with the dirt.

It's now up to 7.4 today. This is also Obama's second highest day ever- he gained a 7.5 during the height of the Berlin trip one day, which fluctuated around the high sixes for a bit before dropping back down. 538 concurs, giving a 9.1% chance that McCain will manage to surge back from his defecit with either some extraordinarily aggressive campaigning or an act of random chance or an october surprise.

McCain needs either a huge scandal, a major gaffe, or something amazing to happen, and he's probably going to try to cause one of these on the debate this Wednesday. If he doesn't, I'd question whether he actually is trying to win.

Certainly the election is not decided yet, but we can at minimum say that nothing bad has happened yet and that if nothing bad happens Obama wins.

Why? I'd have to say that no matter McCain's attempts to cast himself as experienced, Obama is the economy candidate. People associate McCain and Republicans (especially as he is a veteran) with foreign policy, national defense, and toughness all around. People associate Obama with economic reform and different-ness.

With Wall Street currently in freefall, Obama's definitely gaining momentum- it was mentioned in this thread before, but here's 538's Nate Silver's post on this type of thing:

This post is going to seem slightly less relevant now that Gallup has come in showing an 11-point lead for Obama. But the other five daily tracking polls (yes, there are now that many trackers) all showed movement toward John McCain.

Between the Gallup result and Obama's very strong state polling, I am inclined to think that this particular ebb in the tracking polls is mostly statistical noise. That notwithstanding, it's worth considering Chris Bowers' point at Open Left. What, realistically, is Obama's ceiling in this election?

The better a candidate's standing in the polls, the harder it ought to be pick up additional support. In part, this is simply because the more voters that you have in your column, the fewer there are available to convert. But this is still a highly partisan country, we tend to have close elections, and things certainly aren't going to be any easier for a black candidate.

If Obama is ahead by something like 7-8 points ahead nationally, that means that he has persuaded just about all of the persuadables, and he's left looking to covert people like those in Ben Smith's anecdote.

An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks.

"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."

If those sorts of people are the undecideds -- and when Obama is winning Pennsylvania by 12 points or something, that's probably what we're looking at -- then Obama really is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Further gains are going to be difficult to come by, which means that his polls are more likely to go down than to continue going up. (Indeed, our model assumes that the race will tighten some).

Then again, when six out of ten Americans thinks we're headed for a depression, perhaps the ordinary rules go out the window.

So while it's good news that even these people are the undecided, it's going to be hard to go up for Obama unless the stock market's wheels literally fall out and there are bank runs. That said, holding straight or even a minor downturn should still keep it nicely decided.

I'm more worried about how the dead economy means that Obama is going to be remembered as a one-term president who presided during a depression. In the long run he'll be remembered as being unable to do anything to stop it, but the Republicans will probably brand him as just making it worse or doing nothing effective.

[The Spartan]

Update: They now did factor in Rasmussen. Now it is an even more damning 7.4 in Obama's favor.

Now, I ask you guys honestly: is there any chance McCain can still turn this into his favor, apart from the Apocalyse hitting the U.S.?

I have to admit I'm awfully paranoid that he will, but if I set that aside for a moment, no, I don't think he can.

Stay tuned...

[Guardsman Bass]

So the Troopergate Report finally came out, and said she abused her powers? That's no surprise, but I wonder how much of an effect it will have. The bad economic news seems to have shouted down a lot of other political news, including the McCain campaign's use of Ayers as a point of attack - I wonder if the flipside is true?

[Guardsman Bass]

McCain needs either a huge scandal, a major gaffe, or something amazing to happen, and he's probably going to try to cause one of these on the debate this Wednesday. If he doesn't, I'd question whether he actually is trying to win.

Keep in mind that people were saying the same thing about the last debate, and it didn't happen. The final debate usually just doesn't mean much in the scheme of things.

[Guardsman Bass]

Quick Edit: " . . .ethically abused . . . "

[Big Phil]

Update: They now did factor in Rasmussen. Now it is an even more damning 7.4 in Obama's favor.

Now, I ask you guys honestly: is there any chance McCain can still turn this into his favor, apart from the Apocalyse hitting the U.S.?

Weren't you about to shit a brick just a few days ago because you were convinced McCain's negative attacks were working and he was going to win? Now you're absolutely convinced Obama's got in in the bag. Just relax; unless you're going to do The Great Schlep, there's not much you or I or anyone else here can do about the election.

[CaptJodan]

I've been expecting a bounce back to McCain for a while now, mostly because the US can't hold on to support for one candidate or the next for more than a few days before switching back, at least in terms of the independents. I still expect one to be soon, but with Troopergate's results I would hope that it isn't TOO soon. That should keep them low for the next few days.

My guess is he might have a bounce of some kind after the final debate. Sort of like the Palin "hey, she didn't start speaking in tongues, so she must not be THAT bad" bounce she got. One thing I hope comes from the scandal is that they stop hitting the Ares button. It makes them look retarded, and I worry about the kind of fear they've been inciting amongst the die hard redneck morons that want him dead.

[SirNitram]

At the risk of sounding like a total ass... Fuck McCain. Yes, even if he's sorry or didn't mean it to get as bad as it has, where the Secret Service is now involved. Even if he now fears it and wants to put it back. Even if he was physically repulsed.

Because despite all that.. He still helped this along. I do not play the stupid game of 'Well, poor McCain is just FORCED into this position!'. He decided to go back to the stuff that is the equivalent of pouring gunpowder everywhere, and then start playing with matches. The fire just doesn't dance to his tune, and that scares him. He had chances to stop this before it got here. And if it burns him badly while he tries to stop it now, well, he decided this was a good enough idea to run with. Unfortunately, if there's a physical harm cost to it, it's not going to be to him. Because in a just world, when you start down this road, you should be the one getting burned.

[ArcturusMengsk]

Chris Matthews brought up a damn fine point in the last few shows: the Republicans invariably attempt to 'de-Americanize' their opponent in the General Election. Dukakis was a 'card-carrying member of the ACLU' and a 'furriner'; Clinton went to Moscow and protested against Vietnam; Gore was a habitual liar (their words, not mine); and Kerry was effete and 'French'. The slightest connection with alien interests is thrown into the light by them - though, of course, the fact that much of Prescott Bush's (and hence George Herbert Walker's) wealth came from business doings with Nazi Germany, for instance, is never considered. Why should this latest spate of condoned xenophobia out of the G.O.P. be seen as anything less than the logical extension of this history of abuse?

[SirNitram]

It shouldn't. Nor should the attack ads about ACORN be considered different than every other attempt to purge voter rolls on the slightest pretense, or the rage to be anything different than what's always been there.

The stupidest part is Matthews and the rest will go back to pretending this isn't so before too long.

[ArcturusMengsk]

Actually, now that I think of it, this has been the Republican modus operandi for a very long time: George McGovern was painted as the "amnesty, acid, and abortion" candidate; a generation before him, Adlai Stevenson was an "egghead"; and before him even William Jennings Bryan was seen as somehow a radical (though this one might have had a point: though he was right on a great many monetary issues, Bryan was a moralistic tyrant in his social outlook). In a way, the Republicans are the direct inheritors of the fine Federalist tradition of painting Jeffersonian Democrats as revolutionaries, of whom one "could as soon scrub the blackamoor white, as to change the principles of a profest Democrat". The only difference being that the Federalists and their Whiggish children were self-admittedly the defenders of the monied establishment, and prided themselves on that, whereas many working class individuals still seem to accept the Republicans as "their party", this despite the influence of neo-conservative lumpenintellectuals that lingers on in the G.O.P. The challenge for Democrats in this election cycle and the few to come is to pry at the relationship between socially conservative low-wage workers and the fiscally conservative bosses of the intellectual Party establishment.

[ray245]

After seeing the latest RCP Average, I can conclude, that McCain's tactic has blown up in his face. The latest RCP Average is 7.1 in Obama's favor, and it propably will become even higher, since the new Rasmussen poll hadn't been worked into it yet.

I guess my fears were wrong, McCain actually reduced his chance to win with the dirt.

It's now up to 7.4 today. This is also Obama's second highest day ever- he gained a 7.5 during the height of the Berlin trip one day, which fluctuated around the high sixes for a bit before dropping back down. 538 concurs, giving a 9.1% chance that McCain will manage to surge back from his defecit with either some extraordinarily aggressive campaigning or an act of random chance or an october surprise.

McCain needs either a huge scandal, a major gaffe, or something amazing to happen, and he's probably going to try to cause one of these on the debate this Wednesday. If he doesn't, I'd question whether he actually is trying to win.

Certainly the election is not decided yet, but we can at minimum say that nothing bad has happened yet and that if nothing bad happens Obama wins.

Why? I'd have to say that no matter McCain's attempts to cast himself as experienced, Obama is the economy candidate. People associate McCain and Republicans (especially as he is a veteran) with foreign policy, national defense, and toughness all around. People associate Obama with economic reform and different-ness.

With Wall Street currently in freefall, Obama's definitely gaining momentum- it was mentioned in this thread before, but here's 538's Nate Silver's post on this type of thing:

This post is going to seem slightly less relevant now that Gallup has come in showing an 11-point lead for Obama. But the other five daily tracking polls (yes, there are now that many trackers) all showed movement toward John McCain.

Between the Gallup result and Obama's very strong state polling, I am inclined to think that this particular ebb in the tracking polls is mostly statistical noise. That notwithstanding, it's worth considering Chris Bowers' point at Open Left. What, realistically, is Obama's ceiling in this election?

The better a candidate's standing in the polls, the harder it ought to be pick up additional support. In part, this is simply because the more voters that you have in your column, the fewer there are available to convert. But this is still a highly partisan country, we tend to have close elections, and things certainly aren't going to be any easier for a black candidate.

If Obama is ahead by something like 7-8 points ahead nationally, that means that he has persuaded just about all of the persuadables, and he's left looking to covert people like those in Ben Smith's anecdote.

An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks.

"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."

If those sorts of people are the undecideds -- and when Obama is winning Pennsylvania by 12 points or something, that's probably what we're looking at -- then Obama really is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Further gains are going to be difficult to come by, which means that his polls are more likely to go down than to continue going up. (Indeed, our model assumes that the race will tighten some).

Then again, when six out of ten Americans thinks we're headed for a depression, perhaps the ordinary rules go out the window.

So while it's good news that even these people are the undecided, it's going to be hard to go up for Obama unless the stock market's wheels literally fall out and there are bank runs. That said, holding straight or even a minor downturn should still keep it nicely decided.

I'm more worried about how the dead economy means that Obama is going to be remembered as a one-term president who presided during a depression. In the long run he'll be remembered as being unable to do anything to stop it, but the Republicans will probably brand him as just making it worse or doing nothing effective.

It takes Roosevelt almost 3 terms for his economic policy to feel the full effect. Frankly speaking a term limit is really harming a good president of being able to plan a long term solution, that will take two or more terms to feel the full effect.

In essence, the voting public needs to be smart.