[Official Thread] OBAMA WINS RE-ELECTION

[Instant Sunrise]

The real danger, as I read somewhere (likely Slate) is that self-professed 'conservatives' will now ditch Gingrich for Frothy because they want to back the winner. I can see that happening, and Mitt would be worried now as this would cause Santorum to start picking up delegates in the deep south without Newt being a spoiler. The article even speculated that, for the first time since '68, California's primary would be crucial in deciding the nominee - and while on average California is neutral, the R side apparently is batshit crazy (especially in the OC area).

Not really, the OC after all is demographically speaking Romney paradise (ie rich suburbs) not Dixie-In-the-West.

No doubt. But the local republican party, especially at the local level, has a decidedly large number of lolbertarians. And Paul does very well in university areas, and do I have to mention the Ayn Rand foundation? We could also point to the high number of evangelicals in south county.

I don't recall claiming that Gingrich (the "Dixie" candidate) would be viable in OC, nor do I recall Paul doing particularly well in the south.

To restate: If California is so close that the melange of nuttieness that is OC is a deciding factor, Ron Paul has done significantly better than expected. Santorum's share of the vote is most likely capped around 30-40%. Which means that in order for a three way race (and CA is a three way race, Gingrich is a non-entity here), both of the other candidates need to be pushing 30%ish numbers.

There are a lot of different conservative enclaves in Orange County so I don't know which way OC will vote.

You have the campus libertarians around UCI and CSUF, there's also a contingent of libertarians here WRT the Ayn Rand Foundation, which will likely trend towards Paul.

But we also have Saddleback Church, Calvary Chapel and the former Crystal Cathedral, which will likely trend towards Santorum.

I do think that the bootstraps mentality of a lot of the people here will probably trend towards Romney because there are a LOT of the Prop 13/Howard Jarvis diehards, and Mittens' message of lower taxes and less government spending will likely resonate here in a place where the voters literally chose bankruptcy over raising taxes.

As for which candidate will win here, I really don't know.

[General Mung Beans]

The real danger, as I read somewhere (likely Slate) is that self-professed 'conservatives' will now ditch Gingrich for Frothy because they want to back the winner. I can see that happening, and Mitt would be worried now as this would cause Santorum to start picking up delegates in the deep south without Newt being a spoiler. The article even speculated that, for the first time since '68, California's primary would be crucial in deciding the nominee - and while on average California is neutral, the R side apparently is batshit crazy (especially in the OC area).

Not really, the OC after all is demographically speaking Romney paradise (ie rich suburbs) not Dixie-In-the-West.

No doubt. But the local republican party, especially at the local level, has a decidedly large number of lolbertarians. And Paul does very well in university areas, and do I have to mention the Ayn Rand foundation? We could also point to the high number of evangelicals in south county.

I don't recall claiming that Gingrich (the "Dixie" candidate) would be viable in OC, nor do I recall Paul doing particularly well in the south.

To restate: If California is so close that the melange of nuttieness that is OC is a deciding factor, Ron Paul has done significantly better than expected. Santorum's share of the vote is most likely capped around 30-40%. Which means that in order for a three way race (and CA is a three way race, Gingrich is a non-entity here), both of the other candidates need to be pushing 30%ish numbers.

Sorry by "Dixie in the West" I meant Santorum whose the candidate of both Southern and Midwestern soccons now that Gingrich is pretty much doomed.

BTW here's CA's poll numbers from 2008: Link

Considering Paul in recent contests hasn't improved much from his 2008 numbers I don't think he'll be much of a factor.

How will Indiana and North Carolina turn out? Indiana's the most Republican of the Industrial Midwest states and North Carolina is a fairly moderate Southern state.

[Questor]

Sorry by "Dixie in the West" I meant Santorum whose the candidate of both Southern and Midwestern soccons now that Gingrich is pretty much doomed.

BTW here's CA's poll numbers from 2008: Link

Considering Paul in recent contests hasn't improved much from his 2008 numbers I don't think he'll be much of a factor.

How will Indiana and North Carolina turn out? Indiana's the most Republican of the Industrial Midwest states and North Carolina is a fairly moderate Southern state.

And you yet again prove my point. Are you just incapable of reading? To say again: FOR ORANGE COUNTY TO MATTER (I.E. FOR ROMNEY TO NOT HAVE AT LEAST A PLURALITY OF SUPPORT IN CALIFORNIA AND THE RACE TO COME DOWN TO ANY SINGLE COUNTY, MUCH LESS NUTLAND), RON PAUL WILL HAVE TO DO MUCH BETTER, BECAUSE SANTORUM HAS A REALISTIC CAP ON HIS VOTES, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT ARE NOT EVANGELICAL.

[Mr Bean]

Speaking of the Republican election results, looks like Romney will pick up some delegates from tonight race in Louisiana. Two percent less and he would have gotten nothing since you need to at least cross the 25% threshold to qualify and Mittens is in there with 26.6% total to Santorum's 49%. Sad to see Gingrich pick up 20% of the vote that should have gone to Santorum.

OAN backasswards rules explained

Louisiana has 46 delegates, but only 20 will be allocated on Saturday. The state awards these 20 delegates proportionally to any candidate who garners 25 percent or more of the vote, according to The Green Papers. Of the remaining 26 delegates, 23 will be chosen at the state convention but will technically be uncommitted to any candidate. The final three delegates are unpledged party officials.

Makes...perfect...sense
Democracy!

[Dalton]

As of right now NBC has awarded 10 delegates to Santorum and 5 to Romney. No idea where the other 5 are going. According to the Parish map, Santorum won in every Parish except for Orleans (not surprising; urban dwellers tend to be more moderate).

[Questor]

Part of me is sad Bachmann's not still in the race. I'd be curious to see if a state can award negative delegates after her statements about Hurricane Irene.

The cognitive dissonance of the French Quarter and Santorum was probably too much even for Republicans.

[Dalton]

As of right now NBC has awarded 10 delegates to Santorum and 5 to Romney. No idea where the other 5 are going. According to the Parish map, Santorum won in every Parish except for Orleans (not surprising; urban dwellers tend to be more moderate).

Looks like my conjecture was inaccurate; Romney did well among people making over $200k, but it turns out pretty much everyone else voted Santorum.

Linky

[Instant Sunrise]

Well, I think that Rick Santorum is fucked

[Panzersharkcat]

On one hand, I hope somebody messed with the teleprompter as a prank. On the other, I'm hoping that Ol' Frothy really did slip up.

[Dalton]

Mittens sweeps DC, WI, MD...Santorum will likely doggedly hang on, as will Newt

[Aasharu]

As a resident of Wisconsin, I've been seeing a lot of Pro-Mitt ads these last few weeks. I've also been hearing a lot of attack ads on the radio, directed at Santorum. Is Wisconsin important in some way, that Mitt was willing to dedicate effort into winning it, or did Santorum just decide to abandon it?

[Mr Bean]

As a resident of Wisconsin, I've been seeing a lot of Pro-Mitt ads these last few weeks. I've also been hearing a lot of attack ads on the radio, directed at Santorum. Is Wisconsin important in some way, that Mitt was willing to dedicate effort into winning it, or did Santorum just decide to abandon it?

Mittens just has that much money

[Darth Yan]

I heard that gingrich acknowledged that romney is the most likely candidate

[Dalton]

BREAKING: NBC NEWS: RICK SANTORUM TO SUSPEND 2012 CAMPAIGN

[Skgoa]

So that means Mittens is in and Obama has won? Can we get back to interesting topics on TRMS, please? *puppydogeyes*

[Dalton]

This fight is long from over. Santorum has not pledged to support Romney and still has his delegates bound. I think he'd be smart enough to realize that Romney is pretty much guaranteed to be the nominee, so releasing his delegates to Romney would pretty well solidify Romney's candidacy. Then again, he may pledge to Gingrich instead, which would prolong Gingrich's downwards spiral.

[wautd]

So that means Mittens is in and Obama has won?

We'll see. Money is a big factor when buying America's presidency. Romney has a lot of it and if he's also backed by Wall Street and Corporate America...

[Crossroads Inc.]

So that means Mittens is in and Obama has won?

We'll see. Money is a big factor when buying America's presidency. Romney has a lot of it and if he's also backed by Wall Street and Corporate America...

Obama has been good to Wall Street... The question is weather the "1%" think Romney will be better.
For me what I am worried about is how much the mindless middle will be effected by him. A vast amount of people who have currently paid no attention to the race will be given a "clean" start with Mittens. I can see him, with little to no effort, suddenly going as moderate as possible since the real right wackos will vote for him no matter what. So he can court the mindless middle.

[Raw Shark]

Obama has been good to Wall Street... The question is weather the "1%" think Romney will be better.
For me what I am worried about is how much the mindless middle will be effected by him. A vast amount of people who have currently paid no attention to the race will be given a "clean" start with Mittens. I can see him, with little to no effort, suddenly going as moderate as possible since the real right wackos will vote for him no matter what. So he can court the mindless middle.

Every Presidential candidate courts the mindless middle. Things are more complicated for Mittens, because he's the wrong religion for a lot of them (and an even greater percentage of the Far Right). Having the wrong identity will totally fuck him with the group that, more than anybody, votes along the lines of identity politics.

[Dalton]

Hmm. I just had an odd thought.

Mitt Romney wants to institute the Tarkin Doctrine.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

So that means Mittens is in and Obama has won?

We'll see. Money is a big factor when buying America's presidency. Romney has a lot of it and if he's also backed by Wall Street and Corporate America...

Obama has been good to Wall Street... The question is weather the "1%" think Romney will be better.
For me what I am worried about is how much the mindless middle will be effected by him. A vast amount of people who have currently paid no attention to the race will be given a "clean" start with Mittens. I can see him, with little to no effort, suddenly going as moderate as possible since the real right wackos will vote for him no matter what. So he can court the mindless middle.

That's not necessarily the case. GOP primary voters, the "real right wackos" that you are referring to; are, by polling data, really unimpressed with all the GOP hopefuls this time around. The "clean slate" approach might've been Romney's ultimate strategy . . . but since his loose-lipped staffer blew it open with the Etch-a-Sketch remark . . . Romney's going to have to convince the GOP faithful to not decide that he's no better than Obama and stay home.

That's not as easy as you'd think. Romney isn't going to get the nomination because he firmed up the support of the GOP faithful. He did it by burying his opponents under a mountain of money and negative advertising . . . ergo, he created just enough doubt among voters in the GOP far-right that they stayed home instead of voting for Santorum or Gingrich. He doesn't have the same fraction of the vote guaranteed for him that Dubya did. The GOP faithful have, by supporting people like Santorum and Gingrich, made the point that they're not going to have much appetite for a "centrist" candidate.

Worse for Romney, if he does try to jog back to center, guess who's waiting for him? Obama. Remember, Obama can actually use Romney's liberal accomplishments against him. They're going to milk his record as Governor of Massachussets for all it's worth. Obama knows that the GOP base and the Teabaggers are pretty disaffected right now. If it weren't for Romney's weakness among socially-conservative voters in his own party, he could use his economic and business experience to draw in economy-minded swing voters, he could use his record as Governor of Massachussets to create disaffection among the moderates who turned out for Obama the last time, and he could focus on closing the 20 point gap he has with women voters.

But, instead, he has to get his own party to actually turn out for him. Which probably involves terrifying them with the prospect of four more years of the "fiscally irresponsible" Obama. It also means he's going to have to select a socially-conservative Tea Party type for his running mate, and he's going to have to stay firmly right-of-center. Which will seal his fate among women and minority voters ... which his SuperPACs will compensate for by flooding the airwaves with lots and lots of negative advertising meant to encourage people to/scare them into stay home instead of voting for Obama.

[Crossroads Inc.]

But, instead, he has to get his own party to actually turn out for him. Which probably involves terrifying them with the prospect of four more years of the "fiscally irresponsible" Obama. It also means he's going to have to select a socially-conservative Tea Party type for his running mate, and he's going to have to stay firmly right-of-center. Which will seal his fate among women and minority voters ... which his SuperPACs will compensate for by flooding the airwaves with lots and lots of negative advertising meant to encourage people to/scare them into stay home instead of voting for Obama.

The irony here is that Mitt is basically back in Mc Cains shoes from 2008 and I am betting will make the exact same mistakes.
Rather then try and move to the center, which is really his only hope of winning, he is going to, or be told he has to move further to the right to "shore up the base"
McCain made that mistake in 2008, exit polls showed much of "The base" would have voted for him even if he has run more center. ESPECIALLY if he had NOT picked Sarah Palin.
Mittens I hear may be picking Santorum as VP for the exact same backward thinking. Thinking he has to pick someone super far right to "shore up the base"

What it comes down to is just how much the GOP base will vote for Mittens no matter what. One would think by now, his people would simply assume that the far right will vote for him come what may, and focus on getting to the middle. My Big Prediction, is he will continue ot move to the right and go down in flames.
And if he picks Santorum for VP, he will REALLY go down in flames.

[Dalton]

Hah, he may give the nod to his wife at this point (not serious). Mommy Wars was a gift to a bumbling, inept campaign.

[SirNitram]

35 days since Romney took a question from the press. Seems kinda long, in my poor memory of presidential campaigns.

[Crossroads Inc.]

35 days since Romney took a question from the press. Seems kinda long, in my poor memory of presidential campaigns.

Just drives home the fact that at this point, Mittens is in "do no wrong" mode. IE don't put himself in ANY situation where he has to actually Explain his positions. Stay vague, muddled, and general, speak in platitudes, and fool everyone long enough till election day.