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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 08:16pm
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For the record, and I'm going to say this to everyone, if you don't have a treaty of defensive military assistance with the Low Countries then any action to take part in the war as a matter of state policy would be HORRIBLY out of character. This time period is marked by the universal theory of absolute sovereignty. Engaging in a naked land grab by joining in the attack on the Dutch would be tacitly endorsing any other power engaging in naked land grabs against you. Now Germany and France have at least presented an argument for justification of war and Mexico will not intercede, what I can say is that if folks look to go fishing in the Dutch possessions where Mexico has interests (i.e. the Caribbean) then be prepared for a response. In this era folks might not look askance at the Dutch being swallowed whole but they WOULD look askance at a fourth power looking to grab up Dutch possessions without a true cause for war.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 08:22pm
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Steve wrote:


Yes, but at the same time he shouldn't be allowed to stall for time and leave the game hung up. And he did visit SDN earlier today, he's had time to at least post "I'm rejecting the ultimatum" or "I see what's happening, will post tonight", etc.


Unless, like me, he leaves his computer on 24/7 with a tab open to SDN.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 08:26pm
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Thanas wrote:
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:
Hmm.. I need to check with Shady about his response. He watches Germany with weariness.


Shady's nation and mine have signed a non-aggression treaty pregame and Germany honours her treaties. And in case he does not intend to, we agreed on a simultaneous demobilization of the frontier making any attack both ways very difficult. Shady need not worry. Also, I have got about 800.000 men on that border plus the forces of my Italian allies.

For that matter, neither do you for a) germany will gladly sign a non-aggression treaty with you and b) Germany has no way to get to you anyway.

He has, but that doesn't stop his suspicions.

But I am willing to sign a treaty as well.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 08:31pm
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CmdrWilkens wrote:
For the record, and I'm going to say this to everyone, if you don't have a treaty of defensive military assistance with the Low Countries then any action to take part in the war as a matter of state policy would be HORRIBLY out of character. This time period is marked by the universal theory of absolute sovereignty. Engaging in a naked land grab by joining in the attack on the Dutch would be tacitly endorsing any other power engaging in naked land grabs against you. Now Germany and France have at least presented an argument for justification of war and Mexico will not intercede, what I can say is that if folks look to go fishing in the Dutch possessions where Mexico has interests (i.e. the Caribbean) then be prepared for a response. In this era folks might not look askance at the Dutch being swallowed whole but they WOULD look askance at a fourth power looking to grab up Dutch possessions without a true cause for war.

I don't think that is going to work as neat in nations that do not share classical European thought about wars. Certainly Neither Sultan is going to care as much about the Historical thoughts of Europeans, besides the fact that that the Low lands Colony on the horn is Formerly Ethiopian and only conquered in the last 60 years. I do think that there is enough reason for Sudan to move into the last bit of Somalia. And Siege is concerned about have anymore hands in his monopoly on the Suez and in the Red Sea.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 08:37pm
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Lascaris wrote:
Quote:
Navy:

7 Aoba class Heavy Cruisers (7100t), 49.7 IBP's. Complete Janaury 1926.


And to continue on the spoilsport path. Raj the 7100t figure for the Aobas was pure fantasy. The actual figure was 8300t (Conways 1922-46 page 188) Not that this affect you much beyond changing the number of ships from 7 to 6...

Wikipedia says 7100t standard and gives a source (Whitley, M J (1995). Cruisers of World War Two: An International Encyclopedia. London: Arms and Armour Press. pp. 104 & 109. ISBN 1-85409-225-1). I can talk with Steve and TimothyC, but while we all know Wiki is not the most reliable, it is easy. And we're not all going to have nifty naval history books readily on hand.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 08:44pm
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Hrm, the higher tonnage might be for full, not standard.

Wilkens does have a point. I actually have more justification to get involved since I hold a legal claim to all Australia and Karmic has acknowledged it; the Sumatran ports are more dicey but I'm just kinda demanding to garrison them to protect them from blatant landgrabs, since I only tolerate Karmic's positions in Sumatra. And note that Cascadia is not declaring war or getting involved, we're making preparations solely to protect territories either vital to us or which we have legal cause to consider our's.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 09:11pm
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Lascaris wrote:
Quote:
Navy:

7 Aoba class Heavy Cruisers (7100t), 49.7 IBP's. Complete Janaury 1926.


And to continue on the spoilsport path. Raj the 7100t figure for the Aobas was pure fantasy. The actual figure was 8300t (Conways 1922-46 page 188) Not that this affect you much beyond changing the number of ships from 7 to 6...


Well when the best you have is wikipedia, shit gets fucked up I suppose.

Edit: Though the mods may have something to say on this I suppose. I'll go them for judgment on this matter.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 09:22pm
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Hmm. Would the increasing Afghani deployment to Russia count as a state of war, or am I still a few 'incidents' shy of those extra IBPs?



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 09:26pm
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loomer wrote:
Hmm. Would the increasing Afghani deployment to Russia count as a state of war, or am I still a few 'incidents' shy of those extra IBPs?


I think the assumption is that you need to go on a full blown mobilization.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 09:40pm
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Yes. You only get the wartime IBP boost when your country mobilizes, and at that point a ticker starts; when you run out of years as determined by Econ score (Econ 3 being 3 years) your economy can no longer take the strain of wartime mobilization



”A Radical is a man with both feet planted firmly in the air.” – Franklin Delano Roosevelt

"No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism." - Sir Winston L. S. Churchill, Princips Britannia

American Conservatism is about the exercise of personal responsibility without state interference in the lives of the citizenry..... unless, of course, it involves using the bludgeon of state power to suppress things Conservatives do not like.

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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 10:17pm
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Stas Bush wrote:
It would be best if Beowulf took care to draw just where his divisions are. Even if just putting them as dots or circles on the map. I'm having trouble visualizing his attack. The "big fat arrows" are not even close to the real disposition of forces and hardly demonstrate anything...

A good battle advance tempo for a usual rifle division, without heavy resistance is around 10-15 km per day (meaning 24 hour day with all the time procedures of a division in combat). On march it can reach 20-30 km per day - 30 km per day is the absolute top speed of a rifle division marching over plain territory, no water obstacles and no resistance or very little resistance offered. That's what I gathered from history.

So, to get my forward units to Hailar over around 90 km of distance, it took 10 days, with a low advance tempo (1 km per day) during the breach phase and probably higher (10 to 15 km per day) during later days, marching over the plain that offers a path from the breach at Starotsurukhaitui to Hailar.

Meanwhile, Beowulf concentrated a force of 12 (?) divisions on my Western flank, but simultaneously left the Hulun salient with nigh zero guarding forces? Or? If he attacked along a 50 km front, then he reached no numerical superiority anyhow - I have roughly the same density of divisions along the supply line to Hailar, and the three reservist divisions attacking from the North don't change the picture much, since there's 3 infantry divisions securing the breach and another 11 standing as reinforcements in the Soviet territories. If he attacked on a smaller front, he exposed his territories and the rear of the attacking forces. That hardly makes any sense too.

He's "encircling" my 200 000 troops with 180 000 + 45 000 troops, or 225 000 his troops in total - but he exposed the salient which . Most of the forces in combat are infantry, fighting over plain terrain without significant populated urban objects like cities, etc. There's 150 000 reserves in the Soviet territory ready to reinforce that front and augment them till the very moment his forces actually break through.

That doesn't look like much of an encirclement, anyhow. The Manchurian forces at Hailar wouldn't be able to resume offensive so quickly after the Soviets disengage from the city - and there's like what, ~160 000 worthy troops in Hailar itself, or are they spread around the regions next to the city? They will have to advance at a similar tempo, which is not much faster than the tempo of the Soviet units - and while retreating Soviet divisions from Hailar will march through territory controlled by Soviet forces, the Manchurians will have to march engaging in combat, slowing down the advance.

~400 000 Manchurian troops versus the same ~400 000 Soviet troops in the area doesn't look like much of a superiority.


The following assumptions of yours are false, and why:
The Chinese Divisions have 15k troops. They are square, and contain 20k troops each. This has been stated repeatedly, and effects all the rest of your calculations.

The 5 divisions (and two brigades(3 cavalry and 2 rifle divisions+ tank brigades)) you have actually assaulting Hailar would be enough to actually enter the city. What's worse, the forces you have on the south side of the river don't even match the 40k troops you'd specified earlier. You're around 10k troops short. You'd need at least twice the force to actually enter the city, given that there are some 185 thousand effective troops (plus another 15 thousand or so troops reforming from the break at the Hailar He). Heck, even twice as many only gets you to a 2:3 disadvantage in troops at Hailar. Some of the defenders are spread out a bit outside the city, to avoid a Soviet attempt to outflank them.

That it's easy to turn around a large force to then go back the way it came. Such actions are incredibly confusing, as it's inevitable that some units fail to recieve orders, disregard orders, or are in contact and unable to effectively disengage. This is in contrast to the defenders of Hailar, who have been warned that the Soviets may attempt a retreat in order to protect their supply lines. It'll probably be on the order of two days before you can successfully move the bulk of your forces to the attack.

That the encircling force is 225k troops. It's 225k on the south-western side alone. The northern force is a Corps, and as such includes corps artillery, adding an extra 5k men. Total is 50k more men than you think.

Thus, it's not 400k Manchurian and allied troops versus 400k Soviet troops, but rather 460k troops versus 400k troops. And there's still 3 full chinese divisions guarding the salient, plus an additional one that lost one of it's brigades. Which comes out to another 72k men. Plus another 44k men guarding the area between the river and Lake Hulun. And the corps or so that's now on the east side keeping the soviets from making an easy break to the east.

That said, the two Manchurian Corps attacked the southern portion of the Soviet salient, as corps, with the six Chinese divisions attacking as three corps at the northern portion, recapturing Line Yat. The northern force also attacked down line Yat. Thus, your reinforcement divisions would be on the wrong side of the river when they managed to get into position to counter attack.

Lastly, I'll give and say your counter attack to the north succeeded. IT did however achieve a vital objective: you now have to march all those troops back down to Hailar, and that will take additional days, especially since you've now got to have troops both advancing and retreating along the same line (yay more confusion!).



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 10:27pm
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20 k division from China? Hey, you're copping out, right? That's 180 k troops in 9 divisions. Should I just grant you them all suddenly arriving at the salient? I'm calling for mod judgement on that.

End of story.

Draw where your divisions are, or at least say which drawing of mine is more or less correct. As for me having to march over to Hailar again, well, them's the cards - I never thought you'd be cheating by using overstrength allied units.

Beowulf wrote:
The 5 divisions (and two brigades(3 cavalry and 2 rifle divisions+ tank brigades)) you have actually assaulting Hailar would be enough to actually enter the city.

I've only started shelling it and the cavalry, infantry and tanks started moving into the rubble when you decided to strike against my supply lines. Perhaps you should've waited longer for the attack, nes pa?
Beowulf wrote:
What's worse, the forces you have on the south side of the river don't even match the 40k troops you'd specified earlier. You're around 10k troops short. You'd need at least twice the force to actually enter the city

Because you're magicking troops out of thin air, I know. I can't run a war when you've basically created a 500 000 man strong group in what, fifteen days since you've started actually moving forces? That requires at the very least a month, running a division into the fray each coming day. Moreover, you're moving troops from China, not even your own - logistic difficulties X2.
Beowulf wrote:
Heck, even twice as many only gets you to a 2:3 disadvantage in troops at Hailar. Some of the defenders are spread out a bit outside the city, to avoid a Soviet attempt to outflank them.

Well, then I guess the storming of Hailar fails and I'll have to try again - that is all.
Beowulf wrote:
That it's easy to turn around a large force to then go back the way it came.

I never said that's easy. I said that's flat out impossible to do, and that's why I didn't accept the "evacuate troops" offer because it made no sense. I merely noted that the intensity of attack is nowhere close for a decisive superiority in density; you're attacking a front which is defended roughly by the same density of troops with mainly infantry units.
Beowulf wrote:
This is in contrast to the defenders of Hailar, who have been warned that the Soviets may attempt a retreat in order to protect their supply lines.

Yeah, yeah - you're keeping perfect communications with your troops everywhere at every possible time. I know. You haven't even drawn just where are your railroads. An assault which leaves Hailar shelled by heavy artillery will result in major disruptions.
Beowulf wrote:
It'll probably be on the order of two days before you can successfully move the bulk of your forces to the attack.

The supply lines have a density of 6-7 km per division, and nearby divisions can easily concentrate that to 2-3 km per division at the points where protection is needed.
Beowulf wrote:
The northern force is a Corps, and as such includes corps artillery, adding an extra 5k men

Well if we go that way, probably my forces also have extra 5000 men per every 3 or 4 divisions. Given there's like, 22 divisions, that's another 20 000 to 35 000 men. Two can play at this game, Beowulf.
Beowulf wrote:
That said, the two Manchurian Corps attacked the southern portion of the Soviet salient, as corps, with the six Chinese divisions attacking as three corps at the northern portion, recapturing Line Yat.

You're attacking at the border breach? You'll face all the breach divisions plus all the reinforcements. No way in hell for that to succeed.
Beowulf wrote:
Thus, your reinforcement divisions would be on the wrong side of the river when they managed to get into position to counter attack.

What a load of bullshit. The reinforcements are constantly arriving and streaming down the supply lines to participate in widening the offensive. Therefore, they would be trickling down the channel formed by the Soviet divisions moved into Manchuria, and quite certainly some of them would be on the right side of the river.
Beowulf wrote:
IT did however achieve a vital objective: you now have to march all those troops back down to Hailar, and that will take additional days, especially since you've now got to have troops both advancing and retreating along the same line (yay more confusion!).

I see. There's no way you'd be sensible about anything, so I'm quitting the game.

Sayonara.



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Last edited by Stas Bush on 2009-12-07 11:44pm, edited 1 time in total.
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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 10:48pm
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Norade, are you launching that attack before the ultimatum is answered?



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American Conservatism is about the exercise of personal responsibility without state interference in the lives of the citizenry..... unless, of course, it involves using the bludgeon of state power to suppress things Conservatives do not like.

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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:18pm
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Given that the deadline has come and passed in game, 3.6 hours equaling 1 day and the ultimatum being for the same day, I see no reason not to. However given IRL constraints on playing the game, and unreal time I suppose I will delay my attack until tomorrow.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:26pm
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Norseman wrote:
Ryan Thunder wrote:
Well I can't be ignorant of what's going on in my own back yard. There's alot of important stuff along those shores.

What about radar?


No radar, but the fact that the departure of the Spanish *and* the German navies coincide with you getting a night ultimatum... now *that* should legitimately make people go "Hang on... this isn't right." Even if his spies can't tell him I can assure you that this is the sort of thing the MSE might ask their socialist allies about, especially when it coincides with Chiletina mobilizing their forces for no reason whatsoever! I mean Mexican nigh ultimatum, Spanish and German fleets out to see, CHilatinan mobilization (or at least moving to the borders), all at the same time? Sorry but that's way too much for coincidence... Incidentally it'd take time for the fleets to muster as well and there's no way you could hide that sort of thing, unless you're a paranoid Communist dictatorship that is, which Spain and Germany aren't, so we'd even have early warning that they were heading out.

Now you could argue that Brazil would herself freak out, given Chilatinas intervention, but at this stage I predict that the suggested mutual defence treaty would be rushed through before anything more could happen... in an attempt to discourage aggression.



I think it likely that an alert would be issued, I think it likely that orders might be sent to keep an eye out for suspicious activity. However even though the departure of the Spanish and German fleets (as well as the leave cancellation for the Mexican fleet and army) are all things that would be easy enough to find out the destination of those forces after they leave harbor is harder to figure. The Germans at a minimum, prior to the ultimatum, had little reason to be in the Caribbean. So sort of as a brief summar:
Yes an alert is likely to be called
Yes troops are on the lookout but
No there should be no clue about who is going where when


On an unrelated note:
Norade wrote:
Given that the deadline has come and passed in game, 3.6 hours equaling 1 day and the ultimatum being for the same day, I see no reason not to. However given IRL constraints on playing the game, and unreal time I suppose I will delay my attack until tomorrow.


I sent a 72 hour note with a deadline and have only gotten a "lets kick it around" response so far. I could probably escalate but I'm not because IRL considerations should grant some leeway.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:31pm
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CmdrWilkens wrote:
Norade wrote:
Given that the deadline has come and passed in game, 3.6 hours equaling 1 day and the ultimatum being for the same day, I see no reason not to. However given IRL constraints on playing the game, and unreal time I suppose I will delay my attack until tomorrow.


I sent a 72 hour note with a deadline and have only gotten a "lets kick it around" response so far. I could probably escalate but I'm not because IRL considerations should grant some leeway.


I tend to agree and was a bit over hasty in my attack, and while it can be justified in game by my government being the one to escalate things past the point of notes after the ultimatum expires I'll give him another day and will likely post it before I head to work in 16 hours or there about IRL time.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:34pm
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Norade wrote:
I tend to agree and was a bit over hasty in my attack, and while it can be justified in game by my government being the one to escalate things past the point of notes after the ultimatum expires I'll give him another day and will likely post it before I head to work in 16 hours or there about IRL time.


Actually when did you send an ultimatum? Near as I can tell Germany and France sent declarations but I never saw one from Portugal. Did I miss something?



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"I put no stock in religion. By the word religion I have seen the lunacy of fanatics of every denomination be called the will of god. I have seen too much religion in the eyes of too many murderers. Holiness is in right action, and courage on behalf of those who cannot defend themselves, and goodness. "
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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:39pm
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CmdrWilkens wrote:
Norade wrote:
I tend to agree and was a bit over hasty in my attack, and while it can be justified in game by my government being the one to escalate things past the point of notes after the ultimatum expires I'll give him another day and will likely post it before I head to work in 16 hours or there about IRL time.


Actually when did you send an ultimatum? Near as I can tell Germany and France sent declarations but I never saw one from Portugal. Did I miss something?


I didn't send one actually. This was more of a go in under somebody else ultimatum and make a land grab than anything else. I was basing my attack of the expiration of the ultimatum sent Germany, an nation I can be considered close with. I expect political fallout from it, but so long as I don't piss off my allies too bad I figured this would give my soldiers some ground combat experience and might be lost as the first attack of a larger battle.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:43pm
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Norade wrote:
CmdrWilkens wrote:
Norade wrote:
I tend to agree and was a bit over hasty in my attack, and while it can be justified in game by my government being the one to escalate things past the point of notes after the ultimatum expires I'll give him another day and will likely post it before I head to work in 16 hours or there about IRL time.


Actually when did you send an ultimatum? Near as I can tell Germany and France sent declarations but I never saw one from Portugal. Did I miss something?


I didn't send one actually. This was more of a go in under somebody else ultimatum and make a land grab than anything else. I was basing my attack of the expiration of the ultimatum sent Germany, an nation I can be considered close with. I expect political fallout from it, but so long as I don't piss off my allies too bad I figured this would give my soldiers some ground combat experience and might be lost as the first attack of a larger battle.


Okay then, I'll be blunt with a repeat of my previous statement. If for no other reason than because countries with their roots in the European Enlightenment which would mean all of Europe and most of the nations of the Western Hemisphere would find base land grabs to be base thievery...if you attack the Dutch without warning and for no other cause than that of aiding the French and German Empire you WILL receive and ultimatum from Mexico and I will blow every merchant ship flying your flag out of the Panama Canal straight to the bottom of the sea (after giving fair time to abandon ship)...In other words absolute sovereignty is worth defending.

Such behavior out of a European nation would have the intellectual class in a state of near revolt, energize any latent socialist movement AND piss off everyone. I'll let you know right now it'll piss me off that much. I'd much rather trade with Portugal but I also won't allow naked land grabs in so far as I can help it.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:45pm
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I quit the game. Too much bother trying to keep it realistic, when someone's just inventing copouts.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:47pm
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You sound shocked that a division could be as large as 20k men:
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source: http://www.history.army.mil/books/linea ... apter4.htm

As for transporting them, you've already been informed as to how they were transported: narrow gauge rail constructed to support the defense line.

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The Chinese and Manchu forces at the beginning of the encirclement, using standard(ish) NATO symbology. A Manchu Corps is typically 3 divisions plus attachements, a Chinese Corps is currently 2 divisions.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:48pm
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I claim Russia.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-07 11:51pm
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I don't sound fucking shocked. Divisions counted as 15 000 men per the rules, because they are formed by the same industrial costs. So you get to form 20 000 man divisions for every X points, whereas someone with 15 000 divisions gets that for the same IPs. I thought everyone's playing roughly by the same rules.

Actually, you're just fucking cheating because I declared war on you; that's all. Bluewolf hasn't even posted China's fucking OOB, or? He said nothing about 20 000 divisions, right? So that's why I quit. To hell with that.
Beowulf wrote:
As for transporting them, you've already been informed as to how they were transported: narrow gauge rail constructed to support the defense line.

So you're facing the three breach holding divisions plus the reinforcements - you're attacking the breach itself. Neither can such a movement be concealed because you're moving them right along the border.

You're attacking with insufficient forces, as your map shows. Ditto, like I expected.

loomer's first bid is accepted. Other bids are awaited.



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-08 12:00am
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Well, I won't mind Sevastopol and parts of the Ukraine....

Are you sure you are quiting Russia, Stas?



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 Post subject: Re: SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I PostPosted: 2009-12-08 12:02am
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Stas Bush wrote:
I don't sound fucking shocked. Divisions counted as 15 000 men per the rules, because they are formed by the same industrial costs. So you get to form 20 000 man divisions for every X points, whereas someone with 15 000 divisions gets that for the same IPs. I thought everyone's playing roughly by the same rules.


Divisions of different sizes are allowed underneath the rules. They do require different point costs for raising and upgrading. Such is something for Bluewolf and the mods to hash out (though most likely a 33% increase in cost is to be expected).

Quote:
Beowulf wrote:
As for transporting them, you've already been informed as to how they were transported: narrow gauge rail constructed to support the defense line.

So you're facing the three breach holding divisions plus the reinforcements - you're attacking the breach itself. Neither can such a movement be concealed because you're moving them right along the border.

You're attacking with insufficient forces, as your map shows. Ditto, like I expected.


Nice, teleporting reinforcements into the breach specifically to stop the breach from getting recaptured. The divisions were specified as moving at night, specifically to avoid detection by troops at least 5 miles away on the other side of the border. And you're attacking Hailar with insufficient forces. My forces are not insufficient if you've got enough troops to be able to start entering Hailar.



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