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DarthShady
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Post by DarthShady »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:
DarthShady wrote:I have committed suicide. :lol:

Now I shall begin preparations for the new one.
Well, I always knew you'd go off with a bang...
There wasn't much left for me to do so I decided to end it, with a bang. :lol:

I am now preparing my country for the next one, although I still have to wait for the rest of you guys to work out the details about us little guys. :wink:
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

I always thought the intermixing of awesome but different language names was awesome.

Such as Huang Di Beowulf.



And Ronald von Reagan.
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Post by The Yosemite Bear »

besides I want to help those AIs, after all we can't create the God Machine without more AIs.
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Post by Shinn Langley Soryu »

Just a minor heads-up for PeZook, RogueIce, and Fingolfin: Lelouch and his guys are also gonna be heading to PeZookia. Just make sure to send the limo back out when their 707 arrives.

We can still deal with Shroom later. For now, let's just...talk. :D
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Post by Mr Bean »

I am now up to date!
Maybe I'll even post something

*Edit, has anyone set a date when Sheppard nuked the planet? I liked August 6th so that's the date I'm using in my post. Plus for those history buffs it would be just like him to nuke the world on the 6th.

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Post by PeZook »

You know what just occured to me?

The UAR did not act rationally, or even within their own interest here.

I mean, their pre-emptive strike did not prevent the total destruction of the UAR. They may never be allowed to recover now, out of pure spite.

Furthermore, even if they did win the nuclear war, they'd become the international pariah forever, meaning they'd be setting themselves up for another round in fifty years, therefore preventing any real growth from occuring in the future. Therefore, the rational way to use the information about "MESS wargames" was to use it diplomatically, and use their gigantic nuclear arsenals as a bargain card in negotiations about demilitarization of space. It would've ensured the UARs security far better than actual nuclear war.
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

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Post by phongn »

In this case, the UAR believed they were under imminent attack by the MESS, in which a first strike could cripple them before they could respond; add in a healthy dose of paranoia which would make them disbelieve any MESS overtures of peace and I could see why they launched.

Any war between the major power blocs would go nuclear, at any rate. Given a UAR-MESS war, a massive pre-emptive attack probably would've favored whoever shot first, possibly to the point of a major victory. The UAR's miscalculation was that the FUN could get involved.

As it happens, found that a bit bizarre that the FUN entered at that point. In a postwar environment the FUN would've had a commanding position over the UAR (no matter the outcome). Failing that, you could've simply waited until the exchange was completed, Shepnukistan was damaged and its weapons expended and then launch your raid against them.

Finally, as for my IRT, I made a mistake in my targetting. I should've persuaded the Bear to break off the alliance due to the actions of the rest of FUN and then swamped the RT in my vengeance raid. Instead, I spent most of my nukes flattening his northern region - which was already dead. What a waste of nuclear firepower :(
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Post by PeZook »

phongn wrote:In this case, the UAR believed they were under imminent attack by the MESS, in which a first strike could cripple them before they could respond; add in a healthy dose of paranoia which would make them disbelieve any MESS overtures of peace and I could see why they launched.
Well, yeah. It was not a rational response, which is exactly my point :D

The "imminent attack" wasn't, though, since it would need the non-existent MES KKV constellation, so there was plenty of time to talk about space demilitarization.
phongn wrote:Any war between the major power blocs would go nuclear, at any rate. Given a UAR-MESS war, a massive pre-emptive attack probably would've favored whoever shot first, possibly to the point of a major victory. The UAR's miscalculation was that the FUN could get involved.

As it happens, found that a bit bizarre that the FUN entered at that point. In a postwar environment the FUN would've had a commanding position over the UAR (no matter the outcome). Failing that, you could've simply waited until the exchange was completed, Shepnukistan was damaged and its weapons expended and then launch your raid against them.
That would've been ruthless and probably scored us a better victory, yeah. Then again, the ties between the FUN and MESS have been growing very close for the last year or so, so hanging them out to dry as nuke sponges wasn't really an option.
phongn wrote:Finally, as for my IRT, I made a mistake in my targetting. I should've persuaded the Bear to break off the alliance due to the actions of the rest of FUN and then swamped the RT in my vengeance raid. Instead, I spent most of my nukes flattening his northern region - which was already dead. What a waste of nuclear firepower :(
I guess global thermonuclear war causes people to make mistakes that cause below-optimal results :P
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- NEIL ARMSTRONG, MISSION COMMANDER, APOLLO 11

Signature dedicated to the greatest achievement of mankind.

MILDLY DERANGED PHYSICIST does not mind BREAKING the SOUND BARRIER, because it is INSURED. - Simon_Jester considering the problems of hypersonic flight for Team L.A.M.E.
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Post by phongn »

PeZook wrote:The "imminent attack" wasn't, though, since it would need the non-existent MES KKV constellation, so there was plenty of time to talk about space demilitarization.
No, it wouldn't. MESS SSN assets could launch nuclear cruise missile raids fast, along with their rocketplane programme. Warning times would be minimal and could feasibly end up decapitating Shepnukistani C&C. Remember, he knows they have missiles with 300 mi range and Mach 5 speed - that's virtually no time to react, and furthermore they could be launched from carrier-borne aircraft.

When nuclear weapons are added to the game, everything changes.
That would've been ruthless and probably scored us a better victory, yeah. Then again, the ties between the FUN and MESS have been growing very close for the last year or so, so hanging them out to dry as nuke sponges wasn't really an option.
I'll be blunt and say it damn well should've been one. You weren't formally allied yet, and you had an excuse wrt Byzantium to stay out for the moment. Postwar you could help rebuild, etc.
I guess global thermonuclear war causes people to make mistakes that cause below-optimal results :P
* grumble * As it happens I had various nuclear attack plans drawn up for the game, and the anti-FUN one was the primary one I selected. I didn't have a contingency for "FUN irradiates northern part of ally"
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Post by PeZook »

phongn wrote: No, it wouldn't. MESS SSN assets could launch nuclear cruise missile raids fast, along with their rocketplane programme. Warning times would be minimal and could feasibly end up decapitating Shepnukistani C&C. Remember, he knows they have missiles with 300 mi range and Mach 5 speed - that's virtually no time to react, and furthermore they could be launched from carrier-borne aircraft.
Except Shep bitched they had a real-world date set, which was years away in-game.

Though I guess when you start an arms-race with weapons that have literally zero warning times, it's inevitable that one side will try to kill the other in a surprise attack sooner or later.

After all, historically the US and USSR signed the SSBN agreement precisely to avoid this sort of tension - even a few minutes of warning time make people much more comfortable with the "we do not launch first" option.
I'll be blunt and say it damn well should've been one. You weren't formally allied yet, and you had an excuse wrt Byzantium to stay out for the moment. Postwar you could help rebuild, etc.
In hindsight, it might've been for the best, but back then, we had no way of knowing who would come out on top, especially since the UAR kept boasting how much better prepared they were than the MESS, and they could've nuked us anyway as a "spread the love" kind of thing.

It probably was a suboptimal option, yeah, all things considered.
* grumble * As it happens I had various nuclear attack plans drawn up for the game, and the anti-FUN one was the primary one I selected. I didn't have a contingency for "FUN irradiates northern part of ally"
:D
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- NEIL ARMSTRONG, MISSION COMMANDER, APOLLO 11

Signature dedicated to the greatest achievement of mankind.

MILDLY DERANGED PHYSICIST does not mind BREAKING the SOUND BARRIER, because it is INSURED. - Simon_Jester considering the problems of hypersonic flight for Team L.A.M.E.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

Oh, Shep would hardly let another conglomerate to come out on top. He'd either have the attack against the MESS curtailed to save nukes, or something.

Since our attack only kills after a time (in at least a day, most humans in his nation are still alive), Shep would have the time to launch a retaliation strike anyway. Even if his bombers were irradiated.

Maximizing the number of targets he had to hit in a surprise move, extended his nuclear forces and per nation, the damage was less than if he was gearing separately for each war.
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Post by phongn »

PeZook wrote:Except Shep bitched they had a real-world date set, which was years away in-game.
IIRC, he based it off a leaked chat log indicating that there may have been plans for a first-strike in the near (game) future, not the space-based weapons systems they were considering.
Though I guess when you start an arms-race with weapons that have literally zero warning times, it's inevitable that one side will try to kill the other in a surprise attack sooner or later.
Yes. And what Bean did was very dangerous, too. Should the UKB gone to war, it would've immediately gone nuclear no matter who was involved.
In hindsight, it might've been for the best, but back then, we had no way of knowing who would come out on top, especially since the UAR kept boasting how much better prepared they were than the MESS, and they could've nuked us anyway as a "spread the love" kind of thing.
There is that, and the attack the FUN did was understandable, but Shep's avoidance of Byzantium made things a bit clearer. At the least you had time to prepare your defenses (unlike the MESS, who were caught with their pants down)
:D
I don't think Stas wouldn't been happy with me if I had properly thought things through - he would've been virtually unable to defend himself and I would be going for a counter-population and area-denial attack by that point.
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Post by phongn »

Stas Bush wrote:Oh, Shep would hardly let another conglomerate to come out on top. He'd either have the attack against the MESS curtailed to save nukes, or something.
This is all OOC, but I did talk with him and he didn't actually have any intention to hit the FUN until you intervened. And in a war, I don't think he really had a choice, and the MESS counterattack would've messed him up quite badly.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

By and far, Shep was regarded as a threat to humanity, and even if we couldn't haul him up in chains to a War Crimes Court, we could always nuke him to submission. From FUN's perspective, anyone who's flippant enough to use Nukes the first time round ought to be removed immediately lest somehow later Shep decided to go crazy and nuke FUN anyhow.
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Post by phongn »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:By and far, Shep was regarded as a threat to humanity, and even if we couldn't haul him up in chains to a War Crimes Court, we could always nuke him to submission.
Hence my note to wait until the UAR-MESS exchange was through (probably a few days in-game time) in order to minimize the risk to the FUN. By that point, UAR command-and-control would be wrecked, their air-defenses un-coordinated (if not destroyed), etc.
From FUN's perspective, anyone who's flippant enough to use Nukes the first time round ought to be removed immediately lest somehow later Shep decided to go crazy and nuke FUN anyhow.
You see, this part I don't understand at all. Nuclear first-use isn't absurd at all. Any war between the major power blocs that didn't end quick would've gone nuclear at some point, something shown repeatedly in conflict simulations between NATO and the WARPAC, and probably in less a day. Shep is just making it absolutely explicit that'll happen instead of dealing with that short intermediary phase. It's ridiculous to think that nuclear weapons (or chemical) would be a "last-resort" one.

And, as it happened, the IRT also had a nuclear first-use policy, explicitly to counter the massive conventional inferiority the unaligned IRT had with regard to any other power bloc.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

phongn wrote:You see, this part I don't understand at all. Nuclear first-use isn't absurd at all. Any war between the major power blocs that didn't end quick would've gone nuclear at some point, something shown repeatedly in conflict simulations between NATO and the WARPAC, and probably in less a day. Shep is just making it absolutely explicit that'll happen instead of dealing with that short intermediary phase. It's ridiculous to think that nuclear weapons (or chemical) would be a "last-resort" one.

And, as it happened, the IRT also had a nuclear first-use policy, explicitly to counter the massive conventional inferiority the unaligned IRT had with regard to any other power bloc.
But FUN and the MESS do not share the same policy of "nuke first, ask questions later". Sure, it would have gone nuclear eventually, but we would never have pushed the trigger first. We never even intended to go to war in the first place until Shep went all apeshit and screamed bloody murder.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

I would be going for a counter-population and area-denial attack by that point
None of you were ruthless enough to create permanently irradiating devices like salted bombs, so I could've lived with that of course ;) Besides, you attacked after you got the call that your nation had, well, occasionally stumped into a 100% deadly fallout cloud, not immediately ;)
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Post by PeZook »

It would've probably been optimal from a damage-causing perspective to hit the UAR once the dust has settled and their people started to leave shelters, gut-punching them with nerve gas and nukes at the same time.
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

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- NEIL ARMSTRONG, MISSION COMMANDER, APOLLO 11

Signature dedicated to the greatest achievement of mankind.

MILDLY DERANGED PHYSICIST does not mind BREAKING the SOUND BARRIER, because it is INSURED. - Simon_Jester considering the problems of hypersonic flight for Team L.A.M.E.
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

And you people wonder why Shroom turned into a madman :P
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Post by CmdrWilkens »

The problem in general with how the war came about I see as multi-threaded:

1) Shep took OOC speculaiton as if it were in game statements as a justification. Simply put everything which was related to "The MESS may nuke me soon" was information that his in game agencies had no means of collecting. Sure Shepnukistan has always been paranoid but there was NO in-game reason for them to suddenly ratchet up to nuclear war.

2) Of the two nations only Skimmer has an effective quick-launch system. For Shep he has to spool all of his bombers and fighters up, get them airborne, form them up and then somehow launch them in co-ordinated waves against the MESS...all of that takes time. If he simply launches every bomber as it is ready then he is just spitting targets at us and every singleone would getshot down. Even if he was maintiaing an above paranoia level of ground alert he would still have to spend time in air refueling and co-ordinating where his bombers are going otherwise he just gives the MESS the chance to concentrate our defenses against one group then another.

3) I'm still working through exactly what the numbers work towards but here are some problems. For the RB-73s there was no chance for a response which ignores that we've spent the last several years, and as Ipointed out, billions in creating a sucessor system for C$I to AEGIS and our current ground setup. I've already shown we can track the RB-73s and we've got mr than enough SM-3s to hit them. With 5 units I'd estimate Shep as being lucky if he hit 1 though he might get a nukedet prior to impact since all of his are n detonate on contact it seems. For the conventional follow-on forces has at bes 1 wing of bombers per major nation he was attacking this means fewer than 35 bombers per naiton...against WIlkonia alone that means penetrating through 96 F-14Ds in my shiborne CVBG, the associated SAMs onboard, and then getting through my ground alert units. At a minimum I'm figuring that's 104 fighters against 35 bombers (even before the SAM calculations come into play) AND we've been working the new detection system specifically to go against Shep. In other words his inital RB-73 strike was unlikely to get through, his follow on bombers should have been massacred since we would have anywhere from half an hour to an hour to setup airdefenses before they came in range and the MGM-191s would have had to come through the exact same hell only more units would be on alert. So long story short I would have him outnumbered and easily engaged several hundred miles from the Wilkonia coastline. That's just ME, add in air defense units from LSR and TX who would be available and Shep simply doesn't have the numbers to penetrate.

3) On the bio-war front they went with an Ebola derived agent...only problem is that I announced back in year one that I was working towards treatment and vaccination...so I've got plenty of experience with it and the best available public health resposne. I'm not saying that a magic vaccine is popping into play but that the public health crisis for the MESS would be much reduced due to the longtime study and planning with regards to the disease (especially since if the research labs are playing with it the Ministry has, of course, built in massive contingency plans in case of outbreak).
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Post by MKSheppard »

2) Of the two nations only Skimmer has an effective quick-launch system. For Shep he has to spool all of his bombers and fighters up, get them airborne, form them up and then somehow launch them in co-ordinated waves against the MESS...all of that takes time.
That's the advantage of a pre-emptive first strike. I can disguise it as leadup to an exercise; and once they're in the air, I can then redirect them as necessary from orbiting command posts -- if I had based my entire force around missiles, I wouldn't have been able to respond near instantly to the FUN's attack against me by retasking some bombers from the attack on Canissia.

Also, I could have launched quite a few early and had them orbiting their fail safe points; once again an advantage of manned bombers.
CmdrWilkens wrote:3) I'm still working through exactly what the numbers work towards but here are some problems. For the RB-73s there was no chance for a response which ignores that we've spent the last several years, and as Ipointed out, billions in creating a sucessor system for C$I to AEGIS and our current ground setup. I've already shown we can track the RB-73s and we've got mr than enough SM-3s to hit them.
:lol:

The RB-73 is not a simple ballistic missile coming in on a predictive track. It is a manned manouvering orbital bomber. Ballistic missiles don't suddenly accelerate or make unpredictable dives. To intercept an incoming orbital bomber which can detect enemy SAM/ABMs coming up towards it; and can change it's angle of dive and speed in response to cause the SAM/ABMs to miss, you need a really really really big missile; far more energetic than SM-3s. You don't have that. SM-3s are actually quite very marginal as far as ABM goes; there's a reason the Navy is looking into dedicated ABM VLS cells for CG(X) which are freaking huge.

In fact, I'd probably say the only feasible defense against the RB-73 was Stas' own SPIRALs, armed with Space to Space missiles instead of Space to Ground Missiles, which is what I had the one lost fall to; a R-900 Space Interception Missile by NPO Vympel fired by a MiG-105 SPIRAL.
At a minimum I'm figuring that's 104 fighters against 35 bombers
Wrong. Even the mighty Soviet Union could only afford about 2 to 4 active-duty interceptors per regiment of 25-40 interceptors ready to go in five minutes. Same thing with carriers - only a few aircraft are actually ready in alert five, ten, or fifteen status at any one moment.

The B-1C and RB-1D cruise at Mach 2 at 50,000 feet; that's 1320 MPH, or 22 miles a minute.

The deep reaches of Canissia are only 500-700 miles away from bombers based in lower Shepnukistan; that's a trip of 23 to 32 minutes.

A circular route from North-Eastern Shepnukistan which circles around the IRT and approaches Wilkonia's Northeastern coastline is 2,000~ miles; and my bombers fly that in ninety minutes.

To reach the LSR while avoiding Wilkonia means a trip of 2,500~ miles -- as a bonus; this flightpath also ends up being able to hit northern Tian Xia at the same time they hit the LSR -- that's in 114 minutes. Hitting Tian Xia's middle needs a 3,000 mile trip; that's 136 minutes.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the fact that I might have ordered my bombers to violate the Bear Republic's (FUN) airspace to save time after the RT's attack on Shepnukistan with hypersonic missiles.

So you have in the best case (Tian Xia), a mere 2 hours and 16 minutes to generate all of your aircraft and get them into the air; which means you won't be able to get them all into the air; you'll have to pull AIM-120s, etc from weapons storage bunkers, load them onto pylons, and fuel the planes up -- and this is where things hit the little snags -- what happens if you don't have enough weapons loading carts to handle all your planes at once? Do you have enough fuel tankers to load all your planes at once? Do you even have enough personnel on duty or recallable on rapid order to fuel them all at once?

And so on.
the MGM-191s would have had to come through the exact same hell only more units would be on alert.
Actually, no. The MGM-191s are programmed to come in well after the initial destruction of your air defenses by the RB-1Ds and B-1Cs as they penetrate.

The UAR, like Slade's US in the TBOverse and Phong's IRT defeats enemy air defenses by nuking them with long range nuclear tipped stand-off missiles. Did you spend a lot of expensive money on burying hardened landlines and in multiply redunant C3I complexes and radars? Because if not, your system will begin to fall apart as node after node go up in mushroom clouds.

There's a good reason I didn't spend much on air defenses -- I looked at the amount of money I would have to spend to defeat an equivalent attack from SAC; decided that it would cost so much that I'd be reduced to just a semi-defensive role like Phong's IRT; which did go for a heavy IADS route.
3) On the bio-war front they went with an Ebola derived agent...only problem is that I announced back in year one that I was working towards treatment and vaccination.
Are your hospitals at least 30 miles from any major urban area and superhardened bunkers? No? Then by the end of the day, you'll have millions of casualties and only 44,000 hospital beds to deal with it.

The other hospital beds in Wilkonia will be blasted, charred rubble from nuclear strikes; along with the various things such as sanitation plants, meaning that clean water supplies will be scarce to get, leading to outbreaks of cholera, etc.
For the conventional follow-on forces has at bes 1 wing of bombers per major nation he was attacking this means fewer than 35 bombers per naiton
You forget that unlike ballistic missiles, manned bombers can be refuelled and rearmed after a mission. Which means that the bombers which dropped their loads on Canissia 15 minutes into the attack can fly back to their alternate landing points in Shepnukistan, and be refuelled and rearmed by dispersal teams from such places as civil aviation airfields or particularly long stretches of highway, and sent back to strike other targets.

In fact, teh last Shepnukistani SAC mission was flown 48 hours after hostilities began by a three-ship group carrying chemical and biological weapons, which were dropped five minutes before the "stand down" order was given by GEN O'Leary, Acting CINCSAC, who you'll be hearing from in the SDN World thread later today. :twisted:
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MKSheppard
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Post by MKSheppard »

PeZook wrote:The "imminent attack" wasn't, though, since it would need the non-existent MES KKV constellation, so there was plenty of time to talk about space demilitarization.
That would still lead to nuclear war.

1.) UAR reaffirms it's "infinity plus 1" declaration from earlier.

2.) MESS refuses to abide by this, and puts a satellite full of KKVs over UAR; and the UKB refuses to de-orbit the KKVs it has over UAR already.

3.) ???

4.) Global Thermonuclear War.
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"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

Goddamn I think this nukophile thing is contaminating me like the purluent body-fluids of a smallbola patient.

I mean, goddamn it, I wonder what goes on Shep's body and mind when he discusses stuff like this! :lol:
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Post by MKSheppard »

Shroom Man 777 wrote:I mean, goddamn it, I wonder what goes on Shep's body and mind when he discusses stuff like this! :lol:
The ethereal voice of the Seer saying "You have learnt well, my son."

:lol:

Seriously, I don't think anyone here understands how much dramatically different a nuclear attack is compared to a conventional attack.

If you shoot down 30% of the incoming bombers in a conventional attack, you've won by inflicting unsustainable losses onto the attacker (three attacks would inflict 90% casualties on the attacker).

Shooting down 30% of the incoming bombers in a nuclear attack is a complete disaster however.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

MKSheppard wrote:
Shroom Man 777 wrote:I mean, goddamn it, I wonder what goes on Shep's body and mind when he discusses stuff like this! :lol:
The ethereal voice of the Seer saying "You have learnt well, my son."
I was thinking 'raging erection'.
:lol:
Image "DO YOU WORSHIP HOMOSEXUALS?" - Curtis Saxton (source)
shroom is a lovely boy and i wont hear a bad word against him - LUSY-CHAN!
Shit! Man, I didn't think of that! It took Shroom to properly interpret the screams of dying people :D - PeZook
Shroom, I read out the stuff you write about us. You are an endless supply of morale down here. :p - an OWS street medic
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