The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

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The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby Zor » 2017-01-08 01:02am

In this scenario in 2017 an unexpected development happens. The first stage of this is several space launches out of China. Some of which involve the assembly of vehicle out of modules in earth orbit, others are payloads which fly to the moon (specifically the Sea of Nectar). They also test out a reusable space plane with seating for twenty four people to earth orbit. Then in early 2018 this plan enters it's final stage as said vehicle makes a week long flight from earth orbit to lunar orbit and back again, depositing several Taikonauts onto the lunar surface where they (and a number of robots) finish work on a base, test some things out and send some messages back to earth saying that everything is working just fine. Shortly afterwards the Moon Hauler returns with some additional supplies and a staff of some 24 people (among them a some scientists, engineers, technicians, as well as a doctor, a Bureaucrat and a couple of People's Liberation Army soldiers). This is broadcasted around the world, showing the base, it's hydroponic farms, its labs, it's mining and manufacturing facilities and so forth.

This statement goes out along with a press release from Xi Jinping who commemorates the foundation of Yuèqiúshi-I, the capital of the Lunar Special Administration Region of the People's Republic of China. The Lunar SAR is currently an area which currently encompasses a circle kilometers in diameter around the base. They also say that China has plans to continue expansion of it's lunar borders based on the principle that anywhere that they can establish a settlement with 30 people everything within 25km of the center of said colony belongs to china, but will also respect the territorial claims made by other states based around this principle. They will continue to work to expand Yuèqiúshi-I, bringing up more people and equipment.

What happens and what is your response now that China has, and will continue to Grown Larger?

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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby Broomstick » 2017-01-08 01:35am

The US gets off its ass and gets back to the Moon. It's the second space race!
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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby Simon_Jester » 2017-01-08 02:10am

Yays because the moon isn't lonely any more, followed by serious misgivings about the Trump administration's ability to run an adequate space program while working with a Teaist Congress.
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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby madd0ct0r » 2017-01-08 09:26am

Well, it's clear contravention of the first three clauses of Article 11 of the Moon Agreement: ... ement.html

1. The moon and its natural resources are the common heritage of mankind, which finds its expression in the provisions of this Agreement, in particular in paragraph 5 of this article.

2. The moon is not subject to national appropriation by any claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.

3. Neither the surface nor the subsurface of the moon, nor any part thereof or natural resources in place, shall become property of any State, international intergovernmental or non- governmental organization, national organization or non-governmental entity or of any natural person. The placement of personnel, space vehicles, equipment, facilities, stations and installations on or below the surface of the moon, including structures connected with its surface or subsurface, shall not create a right of ownership over the surface or the subsurface of the moon or any areas thereof. The foregoing provisions are without prejudice to the international regime referred to in paragraph 5 of this article.

4. States Parties have the right to exploration and use of the moon without discrimination of any kind, on the basis of equality and in accordance with international law and the terms of this Agreement.

5. States Parties to this Agreement hereby undertake to establish an international regime, including appropriate procedures, to govern the exploitation of the natural resources of the moon as such exploitation is about to become feasible. This provision shall be implemented in accordance with article 18 of this Agreement.

6. In order to facilitate the establishment of the international regime referred to in paragraph 5 of this article, States Parties shall inform the Secretary-General of the United Nations as well as the public and the international scientific community, to the greatest extent feasible and practicable, of any natural resources they may discover on the moon.

7. The main purposes of the international regime to be established shall include:

(a) The orderly and safe development of the natural resources of the moon;

(b) The rational management of those resources;

(c) The expansion of opportunities in the use of those resources;

(d) An equitable sharing by all States Parties in the benefits derived from those resources, whereby the interests and needs of the developing countries, as well as the efforts of those countries which have contributed either directly or indirectly to the exploration of the moon, shall be given special consideration.

8. All the activities with respect to the natural resources of the moon shall be carried out in a manner compatible with the purposes specified in paragraph 7 of this article and the provisions of article 6, paragraph 2, of this Agreement.

Unfortunately, since China, America, India, Japan, Russia and most of Europe are not signatories, there is no real muscle behind the treaty to enforce it.

The frenzy is going to make the South China Sea situation look like a tropical holiday.
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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby Simon_Jester » 2017-01-08 01:01pm

Honestly, in this situation it is very likely that the US and China will work out some kind of bilateral arrangement, possibly bringing in other space 'powers' like Russia, the EU, and maybe even Japan or some other wild cards.

The big nations didn't sign the Moon Treaty because they didn't need to. Now, they need a treaty framework, or there's a risk of "no peace beyond the Line" becoming the rule, resulting in opportunistic acts of sabotage and piracy on the Moon to protect various nations' attempt to secure tenuous claims to its resources.

And China has to know that its advantage is temporary- at least two or three other power blocs will be building moon bases soon, and China can't magically lay claim to or meaningfully exploit or even sporadically cover with bases all the lunar territory they might want.

Although this may have to wait until 2020 or later because of Trumpolini being a posturing fuckwit.

Also, I would like to note that the Moon Treaty as written is sensible in the context of exploration of the moon, but breaks down in the context of a serious attempt to use the moon for its resources. Because "nobody can claim control of anything except their own equipment and buildings" isn't a very good legal framework for questions like "okay, so who gets to mine this vein of ice?"

Paragraph 5 and on claim to cover that, but basically they do so by agreeing in advance to form an international body to regulate access to lunar resources, without actually creating a framework. It's not an agreement, it's an agreement to have an agreement. And to not do anything meaningful without having made the agreement you agree to eventually make, at some indefinite future time, with undefined and uncertain provisions to handle numerous completely unknown complications.

Such a treaty was, honestly, never really going to work.
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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby TimothyC » 2017-01-11 08:31pm

Oh, this is fun.

In pseudo-random order:
  • Every last pro-space American regrets not having PRESIDENT GINGRICH in 2012
  • Remove Bezos, Musk, Bruno, Mahoney, Ozmen, Bigelow, and others (CEOs of Blue Origin, SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, Masten, Sierra Nevada Corp & Bigelow Aerospace) from their respective ceilings.
  • Realize that any serious response will result in FULL AEROSPACE EMPLOYMENT
  • Lots of construction jobs too as ground infrastructure is built to support a space-buildout
  • Oddly, I think this is the one thing where Trump can actually push as a part of MAGA - responding to a Chinese leap is a great way to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
  • You'd need to sideline the Mars and robotic factions in NASA for the most part, although a first person on Mars being an American is still a possibility, but a remote one. If China has a base on the moon, they are a lot closer to a Mars mission than the US is.
  • Shackleton Crater. That's where you want your first US base. The water there will prove vital to making CISLUNAR SPACE pay for itself
  • Speaking of which, ULA's CISLUNAR 1000 is the baseline approach.
  • An updated version of the Rockwell INTEGRATED SPACE PLAN is the high end.
  • Lunar outposts can pay for themselves over the long term because they have the raw materials for both propellant (Hydrolox engines burn 6 times more oxygen by mass than they do Hydrogen, and even using chemical rockets to trans-ship Lunar Liquid Oxygen (LLOx) from the moon to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is less expensive than bringing it up from Earth), and SOLAR POWER SATELLITES.
  • Who wouldn't want to see this across the southern sky?
  • Each of those dots being a Manhattan sized solar power plant beaming gigawatts of electricity to earth for all but minutes per year, rain or shine.
  • No, seriously, you regret not voting for Speaker Dr. Gingrich. We might still get NASA ADMINISTRATOR GINGRICH, which would be good too. Hello SUPER USA SPACE MODE.
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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby FedRebel » 2017-01-12 04:55pm

US backs out of Limited Test Ban and Outer Space Treaties, vowing to completely abolish it's 'terrestrial' nuclear arsenal in 30 years.

NASA gets funds for Ares V to be put into production, General Atomics/USAF resume work on Project: Orion

Deal is hashed out between US China, EU, and Russia that a 12 mi radi of colony perimeter is identified as belonging to the patron nation of the colony.

The EU's efforts to establish colonies get compromised by bureaucracy
Russia is trying to allocate resources and finances, but having difficulty, extensive delays.

The US has Ares V launches establish a small colony designated 'Armstrong' in the mid 2020's

Then...Project: Orion bears fruit. The first (no poop) 4,000,000 ton payload Cargo Orion is launched. In the early 2030's the US breaks ground on a Lunar city to be named 'Dyson'.

Both Armstrong and Dyson (plus a dozen more cities) grow enormously thanks to cargo Orion launches and by 2045 the US vastly overtakes China in territory control and population.

By 2049 the US announces that the first "Aerospace Wing (Heavy)" of Project: Orion Space Battleships is fully Operational and decommissions the last of it's missle silos and SSBN's as promised.

In the early 2050's China, Russia and the EU form a bloc to counter the US. By this point the US has snuffed out any hopes of Russian or European Lunar settlements and is in a position to encroach on Chinese Lunar territory.

By 2060 the US is establishing it's first Martian city, has research posts and military bases on the gas giant moons. The bloc have managed to create their own Orion's by this point. While the US has a numerical advantage, those assets are spread across the whole solar system.

By 2070, war. The alliance scores early victories, with the US space fleet spread out in the outer solar system. American Luna is overrun as is Mars. The alliance fleet tries to engage the US fleet on their terms but is eventually overwhelmed and out maneuvered.

The US fleet bypasses Luna and Mars and guns straight for Earth. Alliance territory is wiped out in orbital bombardment, to a point where "Nuclear Autumn" dominates the next decade. The alliance fleet impulsively withdrew from Luna and Mars to attempt to aid their homelands, marooning their occupation forces.

The final engagement would be the 'Second Battle of Luna" remnants of the Alliance fleet are racing to fall back to Luna to evacuate their occupation forces and proceed to glass American Luna in retaliation. The alliance fleet is destroyed and alliance forces on the surface are routed, Chinese Lunar is conquered by the US, alliance occupation forces surrender.

CONUS was untouched by the Alliance, the invasion of Lunar and Mars was a desperation gambit, the Alliance was betting that the US would be in a position to negotiate after losing control of Luna and Mars, accepting a greater share of Alliance territorial control on Luna and the rest of the solar system. The Alliance threw pretty much everything they had into the specific campaign, the only means to balance out America's space supremacy.

By 2080 'Luna (LN)' is made a state, 'Mars (MR)' is made a commonwealth with statehood expected within a decade. And obviously consisting of the moons, 'Jupiter (JR)' and 'Saturn (SN)' are declared incorporated territories.

By 2100, 'Proxima One' a manned antimatter Orion Drive ship operated by USAF/NASA leaves it's base on Triton to explore Proxima b and chart Alpha Centauri. Five such missions are planned, and work is starting on the follow up "O'Neil One" which is intended to be complete by the time 'Proxima V' completes it's survey. The O'Neil program is to transit a colony of 100,000 to Proxima b and hopefully Alpha Centauri proper, in obviously O'Neil Type colony cylinders.

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Re: The Lunar Special Administrative Region (RAR!)

Postby Simon_Jester » 2017-01-15 09:59pm

The Orion drive ship concepts are frankly kind of stupid; there are a lot of reasons to doubt the concept can be made to work, or that you'd want it to. Among other things, any attempt to use the main drive fries most of the satellites in Earth orbit, which hurts the US more than it hurts the US's rivals.

Furthermore, it is profoundly doubtful that the US would actually have a sensible desire to move its nuclear arsenal into space. Space-based weapons are no more resistant to a first strike (by a powerful opponent) than ballistic missile submarines. In some ways they are MORE vulnerable, because they can be deniably put out of action by, say, a convenient "space accident" that triggers a Kessler cascade in Earth orbit.

And I love the handwave "the EU's efforts to establish colonies get compromised by bureaucracy," followed by effectively forgetting they exist in the entire narrative.

These "four million ton cargo Orions" :wanker: would require enough nuclear explosions in the Earth's atmosphere to cause serious issues; poking around Wikipedia and multiplying suggests each one would release fallout on the same order of magnitude as the combined set of all nuclear tests on Earth combined. Plus, unlike smaller Orion drive plans that NASA has actually talked about semi-seriously, your wankship plans would require nuclear groundbursts to get off the ground; no way are you lofting a ship with a four million ton payload on SRBs or other such lift sources.

Plus you're portraying a massive nuclear war on Earth, which means we're all screwed.

Please stop typing one-handed.
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