[RAR] the damp apocalypse

[madd0ct0r]

Last Monday, it was raining when you woke up. It has not stopped since. And you not alone. All over the world, from the Artic to the Sarhara, clouds cloak the sky and rain is falling at a steady rate of 1.5mm of liquid per hour. It's light rain, but IT DOES NOT STOP. Sometimes it's whipped into a mist by wind, sometimes its snow but mostly it is a constant, drifting, unpleasantly wet rain. Conspiracy theories abound, from a Chinese cloud seeding experiment gone wrong, to divine punishment by the God of Noah or the Gods of the hippies. Nobody knows, nothing has been said, and the rain keeps falling.

All players are considered to live in the same town in Launceton, Tasmania. What do you do?




(Latitude: -41.51794, Longitude: 146.97638 - chosen using https://www.random.org/geographic-coordinates/ and it was the first landfall the pin made.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launceston,_Tasmania
http://wiki.sandaysoft.com/a/Rain_measurement

[Zixinus]

Feel sorry for people in Hungary and people in my home town. Almost the entirety of Hungary is in a valley. My town used to be a swamp. Flooding in Hungary is a problem.

Off-hand, pack up more essential and important things I own and head for some nicer place in higher ground. Failing that, get as a big and good raft I can get with some supplies and equipment. Definitely a water filter.

[madd0ct0r]

Which higher ground? Looks like Launceton's in a wide glacial river valley:




incidentally, googling 'map of tasmania is NSFW. who knew?

[Solauren]

Head to higher ground.

Eventually, the rain will let up. It's a question of riding it out/surviving until the rain has stopped.

[Zixinus]

If the rain never lets up, then the only hope is in getting a big boat and welcome the new world of Waterworld. Until the planet's weather permanently changes until it can't support human life anymore, at which point what you can do is irrelevant.

[madd0ct0r]

It will become clear after a few months that global sea levels aren't rising. If anything they'be dropped a bit on average.

[phred]

1:Invest in a company that makes raincoats.
2:Take my newfound wealth and buy a house in Alaska.
3:Profit!! Or at least live out my life in a nice, cold, sparsely populated place.

[madd0ct0r]

Why Alaska?

[The_Saint]

...incidentally, googling 'map of tasmania is NSFW. who knew?

You picked Launceston so I assume you should have known...



I move back to Hobart and don't notice any change in local news as Launceston gets flooded ... again.

[Simon_Jester]

Can plants grow (in various ecosystems) under conditions of permanent rain? They're not getting much sun. In the tropics that's manageable, and there are such things as temperate rainforests, but there may be areas where all this rain ironically makes the land much less agriculturally productive.

[Starglider]

Can plants grow (in various ecosystems) under conditions of permanent rain? They're not getting much sun. In the tropics that's manageable, and there are such things as temperate rainforests, but there may be areas where all this rain ironically makes the land much less agriculturally productive.

Yes given adequate light and drainage. Of course light and drainage will be inadequate in many areas resulting in a fairly rapid and disruptive shift in biomes and species distribution. Global warming will be reversed and more. Sea level change is unclear; is the rain being drawn up from oceans or created from nothing.

[Khaat]

incidentally, googling 'map of tasmania is NSFW. who knew?

*raises hand* I knew, something like 18 years ago.

(Second the) acquisition of water filter and canned/jarred or otherwise durable foodstuffs.

Acquisition of non-food-grade 55-gallon plastic barrels and enough ply (7 4'x8' sheets?) to make a floating step-sided vardo. [Sorry, but design of one has been on my mind for the last couple of weeks, and I've worked out almost all the questions I had on construction and durability.] (Motive) power to be provided by sculling or poling, additional food-grade barrels filled with fresh-water stores (mounted underneath). If time and materials allow, additional floating decks. Lots of rope. Or nip off and acquire (under questionable circumstances) someone's untended large boat, relocate it, then stock-up.

Fishing pole, hooks, line, possibly nets. Acquire taste for lots of fish, prepare to lose my layer of fat.

Wind-up radio and flashlights. Fuel and small pot-belly stove (cooking/heating.)

Boy Scout Field Book. I have it on my shelf right now.

Wool. Lots of wool clothing. With that much rainfall, temperatures are going to drop on land (as long as it lasts), and if it runs to "catastrophic/total flood (Biblical)", ocean currents are going to get wonky, and temperatures are going to follow.

[Simon_Jester]

Can plants grow (in various ecosystems) under conditions of permanent rain? They're not getting much sun. In the tropics that's manageable, and there are such things as temperate rainforests, but there may be areas where all this rain ironically makes the land much less agriculturally productive.

Yes given adequate light and drainage. Of course light and drainage will be inadequate in many areas resulting in a fairly rapid and disruptive shift in biomes and species distribution. Global warming will be reversed and more. Sea level change is unclear; is the rain being drawn up from oceans or created from nothing.

Maddoc said that (mysteriously) sea levels are not rising, despite the fact that 1.5 mm/hr rainfall over the entire globe should cause sea levels to rise by an average of about 1.8 or 1.9 inches a day* in the long run.

That said, the continuous rainfall may be a metaphorical blight on agricultural productivity in the temperate zones because the light loss from continuous overcast offsets the benefits of getting constant, steady rain. On the other hand, areas that are naturally arid but have lots of sun (e.g. California's agricultural regions) have just become natural breadbaskets, instead of being artificial ones we cultivate by non-sustainably diverting water into them from elsewhere.

At least we won't have to worry about farmers drawing down aquifers. No point in it.

Hm. Another issue that arises here is that even the wettest areas of the world are getting 2-3 times more rainfall than normal, and a lot of places are getting an order of magnitude more- or more! 1.5 mm/hr translates as thirteen meters of rain a year; the global average on land is less than one meter. Runoff and erosion is going to be a problem.
_________

*Since the oceans cover roughly 3/4 of the world, I figure that the sea level rise would be equal to 1.5mm added to the ocean every hour, times 24 hours in a day... Times a factor of 4/3, because there are four units of area catching rainfall for every three units of ocean area to put it in. In the short run, water filling inland basins or soaking into the ground would affect that, which is why I emphasized the long run.

[Elheru Aran]

Runoff and erosion is going to be a problem.

Yeah, I would foresee a sudden, steep rise in prices on hilly/mountainous land (as well as an adjustment in construction methods to allow for erosion), and a corresponding dive in waterfront property.

Living on boats or other floating structures may become a rather more appealing option to a lot of people-- cheaper than houses (more or less), fairly mobile... etc.

[Simon_Jester]

Honestly, I suspect that the rain would cause massive landslides in hills and mountains everywhere in the world well before civil engineering technology could catch up. If you live in a region dominated by mountain valleys, you may be screwed, because even if you personally don't get killed in a landslide, the roads that bring you supplies are probably blocked, on a scale that it would take an army months to dig out of. And this is happening everywhere at once, all over the world.

I can think of large areas of the United States where this would be absolutely crippling. The combination of low sunlight interfering with local agriculture, highways and rail lines being constantly cut by landslides as the topsoil cover of entire hills and mountains slumps into valleys, incidentally creating mud dams that result in flooding by interfering with drainage, and possibly raging flash floods downstream when the mud dams predictably overflow... It'd be overwhelming. The lucky people would be the ones who evacuated before the plague of landslides started.

There are a lot of places where people could survive and even thrive under these conditions. But the 'uniform' constant rainfall would have much worse effects on some places than on others. As with any other global climate change, even one much less drastic than "planet gets thirteen times as much rainfall, forever," there would be winners and losers.

...

Another thought.

Depending on exactly why sea levels aren't rising, ocean salinity may be affected. Is the new water spontaneously vanishing into nothingness as soon as it reaches the ocean? Is the seawater being "drained" from some unknown location(s) in the ocean as fast as the new rain pours it in?

In the former case, what happens to the sediments and mineral salts carried by the rain? Do they gradually make the oceans more salty and muddy, or do they disappear too?

In the latter case, do the oceans increase in salinity and solute concentration (due to all the runoff)? Or do they decrease in salinity and solute concentration (due to relatively fresh water being poured on the top due to rainfall hitting the oceans, while salty water is flushed out the bottom of the sea or wherever?) I mean, the total planetary rainfall is enough to add up to a little less than two inches of sea level rise a day. Rounding that up to two inches (one day per six feet), and noting that the average depth of the oceans is 12000 feet, that means it would take roughly 72000 days (something like 200 years) for the cumulative amount of rain to equal the total volume of the oceans.

On the one hand, WOW THE SEA IS HUGE. On the other hand, that's not a large amount of time on climate scales.

[Elheru Aran]

Fair enough, I forgot about the potential of landslips and such. I was thinking more rocky locations and such. But yes, this is going to completely change civil infrastructure in big ways, including quite possibly making boats as socially mandatory as cars except in the most arid/well drained areas.

[Zeropoint]

Hmm, in rainworld, hydro power, of both the mechanical and electric variety, would be plentiful. That's the one up-side, I guess. It would be horrible and lots of people would die, but it would be possible to settle down into a sustainable life. Even if you couldn't grow crops in the rain, you could put up fabric roofs and hydro-powered grow lights for the crops.

[Terralthra]

My assumption was that the RAR invoked the power of Q to cause the evaporation rate of seawater to increase, causing higher water vapor levels, resulting in constant rain. The sea levels don't rise because it evaporates from wherever else at roughly the same rate it falls as rain. So, the Earth's still a closed system.

[madd0ct0r]

My assumption was that the RAR invoked the power of Q to cause the evaporation rate of seawater to increase, causing higher water vapor levels, resulting in constant rain. The sea levels don't rise because it evaporates from wherever else at roughly the same rate it falls as rain. So, the Earth's still a closed system.

This is my assumption. Please don't poke the question of how evaporation increases despite it being raining. Magic. But the earth is not gaining mass its the same water and watercycle.


Cropwise, I think fungus and literal blight will be issues. Harvesting rice will be easier then wheat, but even rice needs drying. Wind pollinators and flyers will be hit too.


Most river's shouldn't flood. But those with big catchements tgat never see rain across all of its area at once might. The rest run like winter rivers full time, meaning erosion as they wriggle until they are long enough for their bed slope to become shallow enough they stop eroding.

I wonder if there's an issue with nutrients leaching out of the soil?

[Simon_Jester]

My assumption was that the RAR invoked the power of Q to cause the evaporation rate of seawater to increase, causing higher water vapor levels, resulting in constant rain. The sea levels don't rise because it evaporates from wherever else at roughly the same rate it falls as rain. So, the Earth's still a closed system.

This is my assumption. Please don't poke the question of how evaporation increases despite it being raining. Magic. But the earth is not gaining mass its the same water and watercycle.

The question is, what does this water soak into, and what does it not soak into?

The excess rain isn't being added to the sea, but is it added to rivers and lakes? Is it added to the dirt? Does it just magically vanish as soon as it hits the ground? You haven't said, and the question is in doubt depending on how we interpret what you have said.

Cropwise, I think fungus and literal blight will be issues. Harvesting rice will be easier then wheat, but even rice needs drying. Wind pollinators and flyers will be hit too.

This is, yes, an issue. You can't store wet grain and expect it to last, even if it does survive to harvest.

Most river's shouldn't flood. But those with big catchements tgat never see rain across all of its area at once might. The rest run like winter rivers full time, meaning erosion as they wriggle until they are long enough for their bed slope to become shallow enough they stop eroding.

The problem is that most rivers only have rain falling across their whole catchment (or even most of it) for a matter of hours at a time, every few days. The water soaks into the ground and gradually trickles back out.

You've increased the average rainfall on most land areas by about a factor of ten. That means that eventually, rivers are going to be carrying roughly ten times as much water to the sea, as measured in cubic meters per second.

Almost every river can potentially flood if it rains for long enough. We see this on a regular basis throughout the world. If it never stops raining, eventually the ground is saturated and water starts running into the river at a vastly increased rate. And it keeps doing so, and doing so, and a channel that was cut to handle X cubic meters of water a second just plain isn't going to be able to handle 10X cubic meters. The river will overfill its current banks.

Normally that doesn't happen except under extreme conditions. But both large and small rivers, in flatland and mountains alike, can and will flood if heavy rains persist long enough that the ground becomes saturated and the full volume of the rainfall is soaking into the river in real time.

I wonder if there's an issue with nutrients leaching out of the soil?

Bet you a dollar there would be, eventually.

[madd0ct0r]

My assumption was that the RAR invoked the power of Q to cause the evaporation rate of seawater to increase, causing higher water vapor levels, resulting in constant rain. The sea levels don't rise because it evaporates from wherever else at roughly the same rate it falls as rain. So, the Earth's still a closed system.

This is my assumption. Please don't poke the question of how evaporation increases despite it being raining. Magic. But the earth is not gaining mass its the same water and watercycle.

The question is, what does this water soak into, and what does it not soak into?

The excess rain isn't being added to the sea, but is it added to rivers and lakes? Is it added to the dirt? Does it just magically vanish as soon as it hits the ground? You haven't said, and the question is in doubt depending on how we interpret what you have said.

To make this clear.

1) it is raining everywhere all the time
2) this rain falls from clouds made from water vapour
3) this water vapour is recharged by super powered evaporation of seas, rivers puddles and surface water ect.
4) otherwise the water cycle is the same. Local rates of evaporation will vary according to temperature, wind ect but averages out across the globe as 1.5mm per hour. This only kicks in once water is on the ground, no rain evaporating in mid air (even though that does happen in real life)

[Simon_Jester]

Hm.

In that case, polar regions end up buried in utterly insane amounts of snow and ice. We may see an Ice Age begin, because clouds will reduce insolation sharply, and large amounts of snow are being deposited in the polar regions without any corresponding increase in the tendency of that snow and ice to melt.

[phred]

How would this hit the rainforests? A quick google result tells me this would be about the same for the Amazon, for instance. Unless I'm reading that chart wrong.

Why Alaska?

See #3. Ideally I would like to live somewhere where it doesn't get over 30 degrees Celcius, like ever. And I have issues dealing with people, so living somewhere that aren't many around would be nice. Also, it's still America so my money is good and most people that I do have to deal with will probably speak English.

[madd0ct0r]

Alaska's going to have real issues due to the volume of snow building up.

The artic itself will be fine, its a floating ice cube. Antarctica can only build up to certain size before the ice starts to flow under its own weight. By that time the Sarhara is probably gone green.

[Simon_Jester]

Alaska's going to have real issues due to the volume of snow building up.

The artic itself will be fine, its a floating ice cube. Antarctica can only build up to certain size before the ice starts to flow under its own weight. By that time the Sarhara is probably gone green.

1.5 millimeters of rain an hour translates to about 20 millimeters of snow, or an accumulation of roughly 18 inches or half a meter of snow every day. That's not just "volume of snow," that's "Snowpocalyptic blizzard." Vehicle traffic has extreme difficulty moving under such conditions, and the plowing infrastructure may not even exist to keep roads clear over extended distances in a place like Alaska. Especially when fuel and spare parts for the snowplows is coming in along the same roads that are being crushed under this much snow.

Don't get me wrong, a lot of places are well prepared to cope with eighteen inches of snow in a day, or 36 inches in two days. But I don't think anyone really plans for what happens if you get twenty feet of snow in two weeks... or eighty feet in two months.

Any area where it is consistently cold enough to snow all the time for a period of a few weeks, as opposed to a daily freeze-thaw cycle, is going to be crushingly buried under so much snow that it will effectively wipe the place out. This is why I'm anticipating an Ice Age, remember. Even places where there is a regular freeze-thaw cycle will suffer massively from slush and ice, plus of course a very overcharged freeze-thaw cycle eroding roads and buildings in the usual way.

Ultimately, I'm not sure any place on Earth where temperatures don't stay above freezing most of the day all year round will even remain habitable.