The race for Epsilon Eridani (RAR!)

[Zor]

In this scenario in the near future NASA, ESA, CNSA, JAXA and Roscosmos make a startling discovery, which they cross confirm. In orbit of Episilon Iridani is a terrestrial planet with about 1.08 the mass of earth in the goldilocks zone with lots of liquid water and an oxygen/nitrogen rich atmosphere. In short, a world that looks like like it would be prime for colonization. As such Trump, Xi Jinping, Putin, Juncker (with the support of Merkel, the President of France and some other EU groups) and Shinzo declare that they're each putting a lot of money into projects with the following goals...

1. Expanding orbital launch capacity.
2. The construction of infrastructure in earth orbit and the moon.
3. Developing (among other things) improved launch vehicles, life support systems, space manufacturing systems, cryogenic hybernation technology and drive systems.
4. The construction of at least one spacecraft capable of making the 10.5 light year journey to Episilon Iridani, decelerating, entering a stable orbit around said planet and depositing a viable population of colonists (at least 512) with enough supplies to seed the US/China/Russia/Japan/Europe onto this alien world.

Basically what they want to do is this before the shit hits the fan.

What do you have to say about this development and how do you think it will unfold?

Zor

[madd0ct0r]

10.5 light years and we'be barely made it past the moon.

Assuming constant 1g acceleration we're looking at about twelve years to cross that. Biosphere 2 lasted two years and was fairly horrific.

[Simon_Jester]

It's going to be a generation ship; the best propulsion ideas we have that might actually work would take 50-100 years to get there, maybe more.

Realistically we'd want to build and launch multiple ships, with populations much larger than 512, which isn't really a genetically viable population unless there are outside groups to intermarry with now and then. Bigger is probably better here, for a lot of reasons, chief among them that we have no idea how to build a very small, self-sustaining population that can maintain and operate high-tech equipment for centuries.

The more ships we send, the more people and redundant equipment we send, the better the odds of the colony expedition not all dying out because the last fission reactor technician died without training a competent replacement or whatever.

[The_Saint]

Would be throwing money at that EM drive that NASA has to once and for all determine whether a) the technology truly works and b) whether it scales up.


Still keep an eye on other technology so we don't end up with a 'Far Centaurus' situation.

[Simon_Jester]

I suspect that throwing the first million dollars at the EMDrive would very quickly reveal that it does not, in point of fact, work.

The main reason it hasn't been proved not to work conclusively is that nobody wants to be the poor idiot who wasted a million dollars to do so.

[FedRebel]

US backs out of Limited Test Ban, goes for an Orion Nuclear Pulse Drive

first step is lunar colonization and the establishment of spaceborne infrastructure, so the hippies will stop crying over earth launches

Second step is the establishment of massive antimatter production (thinking, a spaceborne raw solar powered particle accelerator that makes Large Hadron look like a silly straw)

Third step is a massive O'Neil type habitat cylinder propelled by an antimatter variant of Orion, Dyson's low end calculations are that we could make 50% of c.

Fourth step is we set foot on the planet and nerds start debating on whether to name it Vulcan or Reach

Fifth step is just rinse and repeat

An Orion Drive is not subject to "every gram counts" in fact more mass improves performance, screw 512, we could send ^51,200 and have room/resources to spare for offspring conceived en-route

Favorably each step would be a 20 year interval, USAF already did most of the hard stuff in the 50's, we can speed round development cycle to get a jump on step 1.

a 20 year trip at the minimum is manageable. And again mass is our friend, so "Babylon 5" gunning toward Epsilon at half the speed of light is more than comfortable for the colonists.

[Broomstick]

10.5 light years and we'be barely made it past the moon.

Assuming constant 1g acceleration we're looking at about twelve years to cross that. Biosphere 2 lasted two years and was fairly horrific.

The people behind Biosphere 2 pretty much expected to find problems, that was sort of the whole point - you can't build and troubleshoot an enclosed long-term biosphere without actually trying to build one and discovering the road blocks. People don't get that that sort of failure is actually a success from the standpoint of solving problems and moving forward.

Now, the fact that funding and follow up did not occur after that is a failure.

There have been plenty of on-going problems with what we have for space stations, too, from issues with astronaut food and bodily wastes in the earliest orbital missions through the Skylab chili rebellion through mold problems on MIR through... well, you get the idea. You can't just pull a complex system like that out of box without a LOT of experience and problem solving from prior attempts.

[Knife]

Before you launch any manned mission, you take the handful of best ideas for propulsion and 'throw money at them' and launch each with a probe to the system. You can then at least see the problems with each engine, the benefits of each engine, verify travel times, and get some initial recon on the target, as well as some recon on the route and obstacles.

I've never understood the love for the Orion drive and find the EM drive silly since even if it does work, no one knows why and that's hardly encouraging. I'd rather toss money into things like VASIMIR and other ION like engines with some going into things like mag sails and other tech like that.

Anyway:
Expanding orbital launch capacity.

One of the first things is to put a station up with a rotating section. No one has actually done this, we know that it would work, more or less, and some of the problems and how to counter them, but have never actually done it so this would be important.

The construction of infrastructure in earth orbit and the moon.

Meh, not sure why we need the moon. If anything a good test for equipment and space flight would be a Mars mission. 3 days to the moon, people can pretty much just gut any problem. 3-7 months is long enough not to gut problems.

Developing (among other things) improved launch vehicles, life support systems, space manufacturing systems, cryogenic hybernation technology and drive systems.

Sure.

The construction of at least one spacecraft capable of making the 10.5 light year journey to Episilon Iridani, decelerating, entering a stable orbit around said planet and depositing a viable population of colonists (at least 512) with enough supplies to seed the US/China/Russia/Japan/Europe onto this alien world.

Yeah, probes, robot probes, prelaunched equipment and supplies, then small manned missions, then larger.

[Zixinus]

It will take a hundred years or far more of careful, consistent long-term planning, funding and creating infrastructure to even consider making a one-way trip. If that happens, you should set a large drone ship that explores and studies the planet to see whether it really is suitable for life. Which would be a good idea before anyone has any ideas about colonising. Just because the place might support life, it does not necessarily mean it will support OUR kind of life specifically.

Unless technological miracles like a FTL drive come up, the existence of the world is mostly academic interest. By that time, the space agencies and the powers backing them might not exist as they do today.

[The_Saint]

10.5 light years away I feel will easily blow out to near 100 years... so first 'anything' arrives and we get a message back in ~2116...

Conservatively 25+ years development, 40+ years of travel to include acceleration and deceleration and then 10 years for a signal to get back

I change my original suggestion: go for long haul and look at anti matter and alcubierre drives. Try for a Far Centaurus situation where longer planning nets you faster travel...