13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

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Bluewolf
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13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

Post by Bluewolf » 2008-10-09 06:24pm

Ok, lets say that Abaddon's 13th Black Crusade was a crushing victory for the forces of Chaos. The crusade breaks Cadia and wipes out all Space Marines sent as well as the IG forces there, then spreading on to take the surrounding systems with ease winning against other races as well. The forces of Chaos as a whole have 40% of their forces available to move on and attack other systems or bunker up as well as 50% of their fleet left.

1. What would the effects be of such a victory on both local and galactic levels for the IOM and other races?

2. Would Abaddon be able to hold the area around Cadia from any attacking IOM fleet and armies?

3. Is there any realistic chance of Abaddon taking on the IOM and winning in the end?

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Re: 13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

Post by Teleros » 2008-10-09 07:45pm

1. What would the effects be of such a victory on both local and galactic levels for the IOM and other races?
Locally, the IoM is obviously screwed. Galactically, other races get a nice long respite from the Imperium, who'll have lost a hell of a lot of troops at the Eye. So expect more Tau expansionism, Waaaghs and whatnot elsewhere.
2. Would Abaddon be able to hold the area around Cadia from any attacking IOM fleet and armies?
At the end of the EoT campaign, whilst Chaos was dug in on Cadia et al, space was dominated by the Imperium and its "allies". As you specified only ground forces in your post (well plus SM ships I suppose, but they're not really ships of the line usually), I guess they'd be boxed in pretty good.
3. Is there any realistic chance of Abaddon taking on the IOM and winning in the end?
You can bet that whilst the Imperium may have weakened its defences elsewhere, it would not have forgotten the idea of "defence in depth". With almost 2/3 of Abaddon's forces unable to attack elsewhere / wiped out, the only way I can realistically see him winning is if the new, weakened Imperium is too overstretched, and loses through attrition.

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Re: 13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

Post by Stormbringer » 2008-10-09 08:19pm

1. What would the effects be of such a victory on both local and galactic levels for the IOM and other races?
Locally, it would inflict a crushing defeat and expose the areas around the Eye to much increased levels of raids, uprisings, and other mischief. The loss of the blockade would have a major impact of drawing Imperial attention, which means that fringes of the Imperium also are less protected but the Gate would be swamped.

In short, the usual but turned up to eleven.

Of course, an interesting possibility is if the Necron pylons are destroyed, they might be forced to take on the Chaos power head on. That would be incredibly messy for both sides. But that possibility is remote in the extreme. The Necrons would rather act cryptically badass yet strangely ineffective than admit that the only thing left in life is running the occasional cog-boy off the front lawn.
2. Would Abaddon be able to hold the area around Cadia from any attacking IOM fleet and armies?
In the near term, probably provided the worlds aren't pulverized. In the long term, it would be extremely dicey. Divided as it is, this would provoke the largest response since the Great Crusade. I doubt that the Chaos Legions would be able to hold together long enough. Abbadon is a shadow of Horus and got the job almost by default. He's not even a Primarch for Emperor's sake! The alliance will crack some how, especially with losses of around 60%, and if it does then the Imperium will exploit it.
3. Is there any realistic chance of Abaddon taking on the IOM and winning in the end?
With the kind of losses you posit, almost certainly not. Sixty percent losses are going to reduce the Legions to a shadow of themselves and fracture any alliance. I wouldn't be surprised if Abbadon is done in by a subordinate on the spot.

The Imperium is free to recruit a huge mass of Imperial Guard, the actual recruitment levels for the Guard make Canada look downright militant. Add in that the Imperium can replace Space Marine losses far more readily and far sooner and it doesn't look good for Chaos. As I said for point two, this is going to provoke an almighty response by the Imperium and they still swing a mighty big stick.

And that's barring anything funky like the Primarchs returning or reincarnating, the Imperium reforming, or the Emperor directly intervening.
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Re: 13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

Post by Bob the Gunslinger » 2008-10-11 03:40am

Bluewolf wrote:*snip*

1. What would the effects be of such a victory on both local and galactic levels for the IOM and other races?

2. Would Abaddon be able to hold the area around Cadia from any attacking IOM fleet and armies?

3. Is there any realistic chance of Abaddon taking on the IOM and winning in the end?
1. I'm pretty sure that Abbadon with set a crew to begin dismantling the Cadian Pylons and allow the Eye if Terror to spread all over the Galaxy, which would be bad for everyone but Chaos.
The IOM would probably go apeshit and assemble the most hugenormous fleet ever seen since the Great Crusade even if it means abandoning 10,000 fringe worlds to the Tyranids. Then they'd wreck Abbadon's shit for good. Considering the huge amount of resources that the IoM is currently sitting on without using, this might actually light a fire under their butt and get them to fully mobilize. Rest assured however that as soon as the Imperium pushes the Abaddon the Fuckup back into the Eye, some Grimdark will come along and batter them back down into their status quo numbers.
The Eldar will probably step in at some point after all their farseers shit a collective wraithbrick. Expect the return of Maughan Ra.
The Necrons will probably mobilize, too, until they can repair the Cadian pylons and keep the warp from ruing their precious, precious physics.
The Tau will have no idea anything's even going on until the newly freed-up Hive Fleet Cthulhu goes NOM NOM NOM!

2. No. If the Imperium were ever to engage his forces outside of the Eye of Terror, where the warped laws of physics give him an advantage, with even a fraction of their might they would annihilate him. Imagine if the Mechanicus explorator fleet or the Inquisition black ships, or even a third of Battlefleet Solar were to decide they couldn't sit this one out...

3. No.
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Re: 13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

Post by NecronLord » 2008-10-11 05:21am

Bob the Gunslinger wrote: 1. I'm pretty sure that Abbadon with set a crew to begin dismantling the Cadian Pylons and allow the Eye if Terror to spread all over the Galaxy, which would be bad for everyone but Chaos.
They protect the region around Cadia. There's no suggestion that they stop it covering the galaxy. The Emperor does that, supposedly.
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Re: 13th Black Crusade Hypothetical Question (40K)

Post by Raxmei » 2008-10-12 03:09am

Destroying the pylons would destroy the strategic significance of Cadia. The region is called the Cadian Gate and takes so many Chaos raids because it is the easiest way out of the Eye of Terror. It is implied that the pylons are responsible for creating the Cadian Gate, so destroying them would ultimately hurt Chaos by making it harder to mount an offensive out of the Eye. Chaos is better off leaving them in place so they can use the Cadian sector as a stable staging point for further attacks into Imperial space.

Strategically it's now a bit like a player in Risk breaking out of Australia. He was previously limited to attacking only one sector, but now can hit everything bordering Cadia. No more convenient kill zone for the Imperium to plug, and more vulnerable sectors to spread the surviving Imperial armies across. Of course the Imperium still has way more territories, so Chaos is still screwed in the long run. I predict a long inconclusive back and forth grind through Segmentum Tempestus. The Imperium's lost a bit of ground, but is simply too big to lose decisively. Chaos is going to be really obnoxious for the next few centuries, but ultimately isn't powerful enough to win. Orks and Nids profit in the confusion, Necrons and Eldar make themselves even more obnoxiously inscrutable, and Tau don't notice anything has happened.
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