Tyrion dances for the children (RAR)

[Solauren]

I made a timeline of relevent events, thanks to Wikipedia. This is for the TV series only (but more or less holds for the first 2 books)

Timeline

Season 1
E4 - Tyrion arrested by Catelyn
E5 - Reach the Eyrie
E6 - Appears the Mountain is raiding, so Ned calls in Tywin. Tyrion's trial by Combat.
E7 - Robert dies, Ned arrested for trying to seize power.
E8 - Robb raises his banners to march against the Lannisters
Tyrion and Bron encouner Shagga and his men.
Tywin named Hand of the King.
E9 - Army at the Twins, arrangement for Robb to marry a Frey.
Jamie Lannister is captured.
E10 - Robb proclaimed King of the North.
Tyrion named acting Hand, as has to deal with Renly, Stannis, Robb. (He's had at least 1 victory, maybe more, and they have Jamie prisoner.)

Season 2
E11 - Tyrion arrives in King's Landing. Robb has won three victories, and offers peace in exchange for the North's independence from the Iron Throne, and the girls back.

E12 - The Greyjoys break away.
Stannis and Melissandre have sex to get Stannis the male heir he needs.
Davos recruits Salladhor.

E13 - Tyrion plans to send Mycella away, arrests Pycelle.
E14 - Renly assassinated. Sansa abused by Joffery but saved by Tyrion.
E15 - Renyl's forces join Stannis (Tyrell's flee) Tyrion learns about Wildfire from Lancel, and takes control of the Scheme.
E16 - Mycella sent away. Riot in Kings Landing, Tywin lets Baelish seek out alligance with Tyrells.
E18 - Catelyn has freed Jamie. (unknown to the Lannisters) Tywin leaves Harrenhal to attack Robb. (Really, it's to reinforce King's Landing and meet the Tyrells)
E19 - Attack on King's Landing. Tyrions harbor chain and a ship full of Wildfire largely stops the naval invasion.
The Hound abandons the defense of the city due to his fear of fire.
Joffery is summoned to 'the Hold', where Cersei as the Royal Executioner 'just in case'. Cersei plans to kill her children to prevent capture.
(Only stopped because Tywin and the Tyrells arrived and drove off Stannis).
Joffery's leaving the battlefield has a negative effect on morale, until Tyrion motivates them.
E20 - Joffery sets aside Sansa to marry Margaery.

So, based on that.....
I'd say Tywin can't head to King's landing, due to needing to save Jamie. So, someone else has to act as Hand of the King.
Odds are, whomever Cersei puts in charge of the Wildfire will screw up. Why? Cause it's Game of Thrones/A Song of Ice and Fire.
Also, without the harbor chain and the Wildfire ship, Stannis will have a lot more forces land.
Even with Tyrions strategies, the City nearly fell.
Also, Cersei was planning to kill her children to prevent their capture.
Odds are, the Lannister hold on power will be broken.

My earlier theory stands unaltered in that regard. Cersei would have bungled the defense of the city.

This just leaves the question, would Stannis, in his need to get a male Heir, accept an alliance offer from the Tyrells?
Would the Tyrells stick with the Lannisters once King's landing was lost?
Would Robb bend the knee/negotiate with Stannis?

[Coop D'etat]

How instrumental was Tyrion in keeping the population of King's Landing happy? I remember they were having food riots due to Joffery's....leadership.

Book Tyrion puts a lot of effort into getting more food to address the problems of the populace, but doesn't do anything to improve the regime's public image. One of Book Tyrion's weaknesses as an operator is that while he is a good judge of popular thinking in general, he handles his own public image poorly probably partly because he pre-emptively assumes people will reject him for his dwarfism partly because learning politics from watching Tywin doesn't include a module on how to have the common touch (this is pretty much an explicit weakness of the Lannister school of politics in the books, they don't do popular support and focus entirely on elite politics, while the Tyrell's use performative image politics to strengthen their position and Starks gain loyalty by an ironclad commitment to upholding the Northern social contract). He doesn't grasp that someone who is intending to act as the people's champion against misgovernment should be publicly seen to do so.

Show Tyrion doesn't do much on the subject, as the plot point of King's Landing unrest isn't dealt with as thoroughly.

[FaxModem1]

How instrumental was Tyrion in keeping the population of King's Landing happy? I remember they were having food riots due to Joffery's....leadership.

Book Tyrion puts a lot of effort into getting more food to address the problems of the populace, but doesn't do anything to improve the regime's public image. One of Book Tyrion's weaknesses as an operator is that while he is a good judge of popular thinking in general, he handles his own public image poorly probably partly because he pre-emptively assumes people will reject him for his dwarfism partly because learning politics from watching Tywin doesn't include a module on how to have the common touch (this is pretty much an explicit weakness of the Lannister school of politics in the books, they don't do popular support and focus entirely on elite politics, while the Tyrell's use performative image politics to strengthen their position and Starks gain loyalty by an ironclad commitment to upholding the Northern social contract). He doesn't grasp that someone who is intending to act as the people's champion against misgovernment should be publicly seen to do so.

Show Tyrion doesn't do much on the subject, as the plot point of King's Landing unrest isn't dealt with as thoroughly.

I rewatched the scene.

The reason for their being out of the castle is to watch as Myrcella leaves for Dorne, Without Tyrion's actions, there's no reason for this to happen, but if for whatever reason, Joffrey leaves the castle, and gets hit with a cowpie, or there's a riot in general, Joffrey overreacts as he does, things go badly. Tyrion noticed that the riot is about to start, and gets Tommen to safety. If that was delayed, or doesn't happen, Tommen, Myrcella, or Sansa are in for a rough time, potentially Cersei as well. Maybe they're eaten the same way the High Septon is?

What happens if King's Landing is suffering food riots without a decent hand like Tyrion to deal with it, or with someone like him to get rid of dead weight like Janos Slynt(and his friends in high places), and instead appoint someone like Bronn, who simply killed all the thieves to deal with crime? Just how much does King's Landing go to pot before Stannis even comes to Blackwater Bay?

[LaCroix]

Without Tyrion, and the counter attack he motivated the defenders into after they were close to mutiny when Jeoffrey fled the walls on his mother's command, King's Landing would have fallen before the Lannister/Tyrell host would have arrived. With the fortification now working for Stannis, the fight would have been very bloody on both sides, and who knows who would have won. (Because I doubt Lannisters and Tyrells were equipped for a siege. They were a field force.)

Even the relatively small force left over after the wildfire attack was enough to almost take the city - a full host would have them overrun in no time.

Stannis also would have had control of the sea and harbours, meaning he could resupply his troups. Very likely that by the time the Lannister host arrives, all Lannisters/Baratheons in the city are dead, so there is no king left, and Stannis would be the last of the Baratheon line.

Whom would they take the city for? House Lannister? House Tyrell?