Orcs Invade Japan

[KraytKing]

First, let me set the record straight. While Archinist had a very similar topic a couple days ago, this is an idea I had two months ago. Reading his version only reminded me of it. I hope you don’t dismiss mine simply because of how bad his was.

The orcs in this scenario are your standard D&D brutes. They are larger and heavier than humans, and have tougher skin, more stamina, and a higher pain threshold. They are also far stronger physically, both from their biology and from the training regimens orcs are put through at a very young age. Orcs are conditioned from birth to fight for the clan above all others, and will never betray their allies. The orcs coming down in Japan are equipped with armor, personal weapons, and siege engines comparable in technology level with sixteenth century England. About thirty million of them arrive.

Along with the orcs comes a support army of goblins a few million strong. As soon as Honshu is pacified, they set about setting up a sustainable agricultural infrastructure capable of supporting orcs, goblins, and captured humans. Other goblins begin building coastal defenses, consisting of catapults, ballistas, fortified bunkers, walls, and the occasional captured JSDF artillery piece or vehicle (1 captured per 20 destroyed). These are used with reasonable effectiveness. The goblins themselves are not combat units, and should not be accounted as such. They will obey the orcs, but not fight for them.

This force comes out of a mysterious portal presumably somewhere on Honshu, but it is never located. The orc army comes roaring into the largest Japanese cities, killing most and capturing the rest. After about a week, the island is theirs. Of the hundred million inhabitants, about one million escape, fifteen million are captured and put in the labor camps, and the rest are killed and eaten. (I know that it would not be this simple, but I’d rather argue about the global reaction to the invasion than how long it would actually take thirty million orcs to capture Japan.) Now that the island is pacified, the orc leaders call for peace. They promise not to attempt any further conquest, and warn that an invasion will result in the death of the slaves.

You are the head of a brand-new global coalition formed to fight the orcs, called the Anti-Orc Global Coalition (AOGC). You are, for the sake of this thread, the unequivocal ruler of this organization. You have about 200,000 men ready to mobilize immediately, and a further three million in six months(as troops are outfitted for active duty). Every year after that, the force grows by one million. This growth stops in 10 years unless war has been declared, in which case double both figures. What do you do?

Also important: Orcs breed like rats, gestating in five months and reaching maturity around thirteen. These orcs are breeding as quickly as they can, but none are pregnant when they come through the portal. Of the thirty million, about ten million are female. A quarter of those can be expected to be incapacitated at any one time after the first two months.

[KraytKing]

EDIT: Should read "fifteenth century England."
By the way, can one edit the topic or am I just blind?

[Elheru Aran]

*stares*

Ahem.

*pulls out portrait of St. Curtis, Windexes, hangs up on the wall. Chalks a nuclear-warning sign on floor. Lights candle in the shape of a B-36*

O Shep! We summon thy spirit!

Nuke. Nuke. Nukey.

No, seriously. These critters have taken most of the main island of Japan. They've managed to overwhelm a modest but well equipped and modern military force. They can reproduce very quickly. Most of their population is male and of 'fighting age'. Japan is an island nation, which means pretty much every significant attack upon it will have to be an amphibious or air assault... historically very difficult to pull off without terrible casualties and years of preparation.

Either you strike peace quickly-- unlikely since they *ate* much of the Japanese population and subjected the rest to slavery-- or you go full out. A ground/sea invasion would be possible, but barring a coalition with China and Russia, I suspect the twenty-some million troops the Orcs have would outnumber any coalition force in significant numbers. And they did overwhelm the Japanese military, so presumably they would present a similarly tough obstacle to any other modern military.

Now there is a *serious* advantage we do have over the Orcs-- 1400s technology isn't going to be able to counter aircraft, and that many Orcs on the ground with zero way of firing back? On the other hand, do we even have *enough* munitions available to kill 20,000,000ish beings? So... nukes.

[KraytKing]

A ground/sea invasion would be possible, but barring a coalition with China and Russia, I suspect the twenty-some million troops the Orcs have would outnumber any coalition force in significant numbers.

Both male and female orcs fight. Only goblins are non-combat. And Russia and China are both part of AOGC, but they are obviously not contributing very many troops, given the numbers I put out.

[Elheru Aran]

Well that's even worse. Yeah, I don't see much way the coalition can avoid using nukes or stuff like FAE's. They might even consider voiding the ban on cluster bombs...

[KraytKing]

Now there is a *serious* advantage we do have over the Orcs-- 1400s technology isn't going to be able to counter aircraft, and that many Orcs on the ground with zero way of firing back?

They do have some anti-aircraft capacity in ballistas, catapults, and captured JSDF weaponry, but these could only account for maybe two aircraft per hundred, if we're being optimistic.

[Elheru Aran]

Now there is a *serious* advantage we do have over the Orcs-- 1400s technology isn't going to be able to counter aircraft, and that many Orcs on the ground with zero way of firing back?

They do have some anti-aircraft capacity in ballistas, catapults, and captured JSDF weaponry, but these could only account for maybe two aircraft per hundred, if we're being optimistic.

Well if they're able to handle the JSDF weaponry or able to force JSDF survivors into using it for them, then that does change the equation some... but not by much. Just means those areas get destroyed first.

The fact of the matter is that the coalition is going to have seriously crippling air superiority, to a monstrous degree. They can destroy the Orcs pretty much at their whim, and the Orcs can't really do anything back at them.

The only way for the Orcs to survive here is to try and spread quickly while trying to adapt to modern technology. Sailing across the Sea of Japan to attempt a beach-head either in Korea, Siberia or Manchuria. Clustered up in Japan, they're going to be a crazy vulnerable target, and will get splattered in short order.

[Batman]

Is it even possible to set up sustainable agriculture with their technology, especially given their breeding rate? It should be possible to just starve them out.

Alternatively, (and yes that's a really far out scenario) if we manage to capture an orc or 7 alive it might be possible to engineer a chemical weapon that kills them but not the humans (unlikely as I said especially as D&D orcs are close enough to humans to interbreed). I'd really rather not use biological weapons.

Lack of munitions should be a nonproblem as we have essentially 'forever' to deal with them. They can't get off the islands without us noticing, and everything they 'do' put to sea can be sunk with impunity. Just keep them bottled up on the islands long enough to build the needed munitions.

[KraytKing]

Just remember the fifteen million Japanese still on the island. While you have the final say in all military actions, would you be able to live with their deaths on your conscience?

[Batman]

Their deaths are all but inevitable. I invade, they die (along with fuck knows how many of my soldiers). I use NBC weapons-they die. I starve out the orcs-they not only die, but probably get eaten. Conventional bombardment-a lot (I'm inclined to say most of them) still die. Shep Solutioning the situation at least lets them die quickly.

[KraytKing]

If you accept peace they survive. Are you willing to surrender the island?

[Batman]

On second thought, I'm not sure I have to. Sure, the orcs have magically managed to conquer the island (unlikely as hell but let's roll with it). Their numerical advantage (if any, 30 million of them arrive, but a rather significant number of them will have died in the pacification what with Japan having a 1st world military) is AT BEST 2:1...against 15 million Japanese fully versed in the use of 21st century technology on an island lousy with 21st century technology. The orcs won't last a year.

[KraytKing]

But you forget the terror factor. Fifteen million civilians see a bunch of three hundred pound maniacs in steel armor who just killed and ate most of the people in their cities. Plus, each of the labor camps has no idea others are still alive, and no way to link up with them. Would you be the first to try and grab one of their swords?

[KraytKing]

I must admit this was more interesting in the "war games" scenario it was originally conceived in, with a constantly evolving threat based on your actions. Oh well. The more you know.

[Me2005]

On second thought, I'm not sure I have to. Sure, the orcs have magically managed to conquer the island (unlikely as hell but let's roll with it). Their numerical advantage ...is AT BEST 2:1...against 15 million Japanese fully versed in the use of 21st century technology on an island lousy with 21st century technology. The orcs won't last a year.

...And this 21st century tech helps them how, exactly? Oh, they can use cameraphones... until the power cuts out and the batteries die, because the Orcs either wrecked the grid or the people who maintain it. And cars... that need fuel, again, another scarce resource. Japan isn't lousy with guns & ammunition like the US is, so improvised weapons would be the best bet and plausibly destructive - if it weren't certain that the Orcs aren't keeping all the people in one spot so they can conveniently organize and would kill anyone who was even somewhat acquainted with any person trying such a thing.

And it's reasonable to expect that most of the captured are women & children.

If I were the Orcs, I'd be looking into ways to get off that island. A few hundred thousand or so on sneak into the mainland and it's zombiepocolypse, but with Orcs. As the Humans, it's paramount that they do not get off the island. From the sound of it, even a few escaping would be trouble since they breed and mature so fast.

[bilateralrope]

I give the Orcs a choice:
- I negotiate a plan with the Orcs that has them shipping out all the human survivors so that they can be taken in elsewhere as refugees. Japan then gets quarantined.
- I order the use of nuclear and chemical weapons to kill the Orcs and their human slaves.

The Orcs keeping human slaves will not be tolerated. Orcs leaving Japan is also not going to happen.

[Vendetta]

This force comes out of a mysterious portal presumably somewhere on Honshu, but it is never located. The orc army comes roaring into the largest Japanese cities, killing most and capturing the rest. After about a week, the island is theirs.

It's not practical for a force at 15th century levels of technology to achieve progress that rapid in Japan. (especially 15th century English armies, which were relatively backwards at the time compared to Europe and especially Japan, which had the highest proportion of firearms in its armies of any nation in the world at the time, as they were in the middle of the Sengoku Jidai and were enthusiastic adopters).

They couldn't even get from one end of Honshu to the other in a week, let alone subdue the island.

Honshu is mountainous and most of its population is coastal and very very concentrated, making it difficult to navigate inland for a people unfamiliar with the terrain, modern agriculture is centralised and reliant on modern mechanised distribution and would not provide forage anywhere else (which would be essential for a force with essentially no line of supply because their technology doesn't allow it), and it would be very easy for a much more mobile modern force to respond to and contain attacks with relatively few places actually needing to be defended. Mounted knights, pike and light cannon lose every time to even the relatively small JSDF which can engage them quickly on land and air whereever they manage to appear.

The orc assault fails because they can't feed themselves or their mounts in Japan, they spend most of their time lost in relatively inhospitable mountain terrain, they're hunted down by satellites and engaged by air and ground forces they can't comprehend let alone fight.

The orcs could appear in the fifteenth century and still lose. (Probably faster because of the ongoing Sengoku Jidai meaning and overall higher level of military readiness.)

[KraytKing]

This force comes out of a mysterious portal presumably somewhere on Honshu, but it is never located. The orc army comes roaring into the largest Japanese cities, killing most and capturing the rest. After about a week, the island is theirs.

It's not practical for a force at 15th century levels of technology to achieve progress that rapid in Japan.

I take it you were so disgusted by this that you stopped reading immediately, as the next line is "(I know that it would not be this simple, but I’d rather argue about the global reaction to the invasion than how long it would actually take thirty million orcs to capture Japan.)"

[Vendetta]

The setup of your scenario is not exempt from critique. If you want a reasoned response to it based on current military capabilities then you have to accept that those capabilities apply to the formation of the scenario.


The global reaction to the invasion would not be 200,000 people because the whole invasion would be livestreamed all the time because it's happening in a globalised hyperconnected nation.

It would come faster than a week as well, with USFJ based at Okinawa and USN forces in the pacific responding as soon as the initial attacks on civilian populations started happening, live, online, for the entire world to be outraged by. The JGSDF thereby receiving air support from USN, USMC and USAF forces in the pacific and operating from their existing bases at Yokota and Okinawa (with the US having focused increasingly on the pacific in recent years due to the whole North Korea situation) and CSG5 based at Yokosuka.

The response would be immediate military assistance from the US during the initial stages of the conflict with other nations becoming involved over the next few days once the scope and nature of the threat becomes evident.

There's no version of the scenario where "orcs invade Japan, win inside a week" is a thing that happens.

[Thanas]

A 14th century army will easily be held off, the only way they might be able to inflict some casualties is by guerilla warfare or holding some city the modern army is forced to take. 30 million orcs? Haha. A single army, maybe even a single corps from WWI if given defensive terrain would be able to deal with them and weapons have only gotten more deadlier by now. Heck, if all else fails just get into your tanks and run over them. What are they going to do against 44 tons of metal rushing at them at 70km/h? Make squishy sounds, that's what.

Even more, your idea of a couple million goblins supporting 30 million soldier orcs is nonsense. You need a very high ratio, as high as 85:1 between civilian and soldier to support a decent army in the middle ages. So the orcs will starve out easily within the first week after supplies ran out.

[Enigma]

China and Russia would involve themselves as the Orcs would be too close for comfort. This isn't North Korea where they use their wait and see approach.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I take it you were so disgusted by this that you stopped reading immediately, as the next line is "(I know that it would not be this simple, but I’d rather argue about the global reaction to the invasion than how long it would actually take thirty million orcs to capture Japan.)"

The global reaction would happen within minutes of the the orcs appearing. The world isn't going to just wait idly by for an entire fucking week while the orcs conquer Japan. If you want to give the orcs Japan by act of Q, that's one thing, but it just isn't reasonable to propose that they actually take over the island and the world waits kindly to respond to it until after they capture it. Hell, there are US military bases IN Japan! What do you think they are going to do about this?

[KraytKing]

Overrun with the rest of them. You don't seem to understand exactly how much thirty million is.

And as for the size of the reaction army, this is just what has been pledged to a force controlled by a single person. The rest of their armies still function, but are outside your control. The question is, how do YOU react. Nukes, carpet bombing, or massed land invasion? Or do you accept peace? Under what conditions? What about the hostages? These are the questions that warrant answers, not how long an army with vague nutritional requirements is going to last.

[Thanas]

You don't seem to understand exactly how much thirty million is.

Machineguns. Clusterbombs. Strafing. MRLS. Modern Artillery. Tanks. APC. Automatic fire.

You don't seem to understand force multipliers. Give me the Gardekorps of 1914 and I will beat back the Orcish invasion. Heck, give me one modern armored division and the orcs will be reduced to a footnote.

There is no way for any army with 1400 tech to overrun a modern army. None. Those dense infantry formations? There is a reason why people stopped doing those.

[Simon_Jester]

Even assuming for the sake of argument that we remove Japan's armed defenders from the equation (say, have one orc with a big axe magically appear out of nowhere standing directly behind every soldier in Japan, at a distance of one meter, as the opening phase of the orc invasion)...

This is not especially hard.

First, let me set the record straight. While Archinist had a very similar topic a couple days ago, this is an idea I had two months ago. Reading his version only reminded me of it. I hope you don’t dismiss mine simply because of how bad his was.

The orcs in this scenario are your standard D&D brutes. They are larger and heavier than humans, and have tougher skin, more stamina, and a higher pain threshold. They are also far stronger physically, both from their biology and from the training regimens orcs are put through at a very young age. Orcs are conditioned from birth to fight for the clan above all others, and will never betray their allies. The orcs coming down in Japan are equipped with armor, personal weapons, and siege engines comparable in technology level with sixteenth century England. About thirty million of them arrive.

Do they fight in formations like a medieval army, or do they fight irregularly like screaming mobs? The former would probably be more effective to them, but not to us.

Along with the orcs comes a support army of goblins a few million strong. As soon as Honshu is pacified, they set about setting up a sustainable agricultural infrastructure capable of supporting orcs, goblins, and captured humans.

How do orcs feel about killing humans to limit the food requirements? Japan could probably support thirty million people agriculturally, but it can't support its human population, let alone said human population plus thirty million immigrants, without food imports.

Other goblins begin building coastal defenses, consisting of catapults, ballistas, fortified bunkers, walls, and the occasional captured JSDF artillery piece or vehicle (1 captured per 20 destroyed). These are used with reasonable effectiveness. The goblins themselves are not combat units, and should not be accounted as such. They will obey the orcs, but not fight for them.

Do orcs perform manual labor when necessary, or are they stereotypical lazy savages?

This force comes out of a mysterious portal presumably somewhere on Honshu, but it is never located. The orc army comes roaring into the largest Japanese cities, killing most and capturing the rest. After about a week, the island is theirs. Of the hundred million inhabitants, about one million escape, fifteen million are captured and put in the labor camps, and the rest are killed and eaten. (I know that it would not be this simple, but I’d rather argue about the global reaction to the invasion than how long it would actually take thirty million orcs to capture Japan.) Now that the island is pacified, the orc leaders call for peace. They promise not to attempt any further conquest, and warn that an invasion will result in the death of the slaves.

You are the head of a brand-new global coalition formed to fight the orcs, called the Anti-Orc Global Coalition (AOGC). You are, for the sake of this thread, the unequivocal ruler of this organization. You have about 200,000 men ready to mobilize immediately, and a further three million in six months(as troops are outfitted for active duty). Every year after that, the force grows by one million. This growth stops in 10 years unless war has been declared, in which case double both figures. What do you do?

My main striking force will be the US Marines and other (smaller) amphibious forces with their own ships.

[Not the Marines because US Marines are somehow supermen, just because they're the largest force in the world that actually trains to perform over-the-beach amphibious assaults]

Operating out of bases on Okinawa, in South Korea, and hopefully places like Vladivostok, use airmobile and amphibious forces to stage raids against the orcs in division strength or greater. If the orcs don't magically upgrade their weapons, then we can achieve ludicrously disproportionate casualty ratios, and as long as we have helicopters and vehicles, we're vastly more mobile than them. We can seize a beachhead, set up machine gun nests and mow down orcs that attack the beachhead, while rescuing as many human slaves as possible and shoving them into helicopters or onto ships. The overall goal is to rescue as many enslaved Japanese as possible before they're all killed off (I suspect the human population of the island won't last long under these conditions).

Orcs with artillery bunkers will not be a major problem; the bunkers can be destroyed with guided weapons, and the few ammunition factories in Japan can be destroyed by precision strikes. The orcs have no native ability to manufacture ammunition for modern artillery.