Game of Thrones Season 5 (TV ONLY)

[Elfdart]

Still, he then also apparently has no competent second or troop leaders who - despite veterans - don't remember the first rule of strategy.

I assumed Stannis was suicidal at this point, and this was just a Banzai! charge.

[Thanas]

He sure as heck did not seem to want to give up and be killed in the woods.

[GuppyShark]

And there was still an outside chance of the promised divine intervention.

[Haruko]

My brother: Oh, so I found out how ants find the food: by sensing the sugar with their antennae. They send out scouts --

Me: So even ants are more competent than Stannis?

****

Heh. Just having fun. I understand about Stannis being distressed, losing his officers, supplies, etc., and at least some of the defecting sellswords likely going over the Boltons, thereby lending not only their strength, but their information about Stannis' position, mental condition, and condition of his army.

[Vympel]

Everyone shut up about Kit Harrington's non-existent haircut

[TheHammer]

And there was still an outside chance of the promised divine intervention.

I think that was the whole thing in a nutshell. He was going to fight til the bitter end and either the LoL was doing to deliver on the Melisandre's promise, or he was going to die there because to retreat would mean he sacrificed everything he loved for nothing. Under the second scenario, death would be his preferred outcome...

[Pelranius]

I've read a theory over at westeros.org's forums that Ramsey actually paid/convinced the sellswords to start the fires in Stannis's camp in S5E9: Dance of the Dragons.

It would make explain how those fires seemed to go off simultaneously across the camp, but I don't buy Ramsay being that convincing of a negotiator (and I doubt the Boltons have that much money, though if you're trapped in the snows and starving, defecting might look somewhat attractive).

[FaxModem1]

Amnesty, new paymasters, and a place to go to restock that isn't Castle Black, that would be paradise. Having a boss that sets his enemies and his own family on fire probably tipped the scales a bit, too.

[Pelranius]

Amnesty, new paymasters, and a place to go to restock that isn't Castle Black, that would be paradise. Having a boss that sets his enemies and his own family on fire probably tipped the scales a bit, too.

What if Littlefinger had bribed the sellsword commanders to betray Stannis at the proper time? Having them inside Bolton's army would also give him and the Vale knights another edge in battle.

[Thanas]

Too far-fetched IMO.

[Venator]

Too far-fetched IMO.

Littlefinger =/= Creed

More relevantly... I may have missed/forgotten a scene, but has Baelish ever been within a hundred miles of Stannis outside of the Battle of the Blackwater? I recall him visiting Renley's camp, but not Stannis'. He could have sent an agent, but it's hard to imagine someone like him (a) trusting a lackey to plan something that critical and (b) being able to find a lackey with the charisma to pull it off.

[SCRawl]

More relevantly... I may have missed/forgotten a scene, but has Baelish ever been within a hundred miles of Stannis outside of the Battle of the Blackwater? I recall him visiting Renley's camp, but not Stannis'. He could have sent an agent, but it's hard to imagine someone like him (a) trusting a lackey to plan something that critical and (b) being able to find a lackey with the charisma to pull it off.

They were on the Small Council together. Perhaps Stannis came to King's Landing at some point to sit in on a meeting in person.

[Venator]

That would have been well before Stannis even hired his sellswords. Before the contention for the throne was even on the radar, in fact.

[SCRawl]

That would have been well before Stannis even hired his sellswords. Before the contention for the throne was even on the radar, in fact.

Ah, I thought it was a more general question about whether or not they had ever met. I should have judged from the context that you were trying to determine whether or not they could have been in direct communication about more recent events.

[Venator]

That would have been well before Stannis even hired his sellswords. Before the contention for the throne was even on the radar, in fact.

Ah, I thought it was a more general question about whether or not they had ever met. I should have judged from the context that you were trying to determine whether or not they could have been in direct communication about more recent events.

I could have been more clear, too.

Though I'm sure there's fanfic where Littlefinger calls the entire war for succession and bribes the sellswords before Robert Baratheon even bites the bucket .

[Lord Revan]

I'm sure there is.

The funny thing is that the succession crisis wouldn't be that hard to predict, well that it would happen. I'm pretty sure Littlefinger knew about the truth of the royal children so it wouldn't much of stretch to assume a smart man like him would be able to predict that if that info ever got out it would lead to a civil war. However being able to predict how that civil war to go beyond a rather general before it even started is assuming too much. Even if there was no literal magic involved there's too many variables for any accurate predictions.

[fgalkin]

I'm sure there is.

The funny thing is that the succession crisis wouldn't be that hard to predict, well that it would happen. I'm pretty sure Littlefinger knew about the truth of the royal children so it wouldn't much of stretch to assume a smart man like him would be able to predict that if that info ever got out it would lead to a civil war. However being able to predict how that civil war to go beyond a rather general before it even started is assuming too much. Even if there was no literal magic involved there's too many variables for any accurate predictions.

Not only had he predicted it, he intentionally started it, by having Lisa poison Jon Arryn, then pin the blame on the Lannisters.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Ziggy Stardust]

Not only had he predicted it, he intentionally started it, by having Lisa poison Jon Arryn, then pin the blame on the Lannisters.

Exactly.

Littlefinger knew that the crown's position was tenuous, and knew that picking at the rift between the Lannisters and Baratheon/Starks would destabilize the realm. Of course it's ridiculous to assume that Littlefinger predicted every single event that's happened since then, but we don't have to make that assumption. Littlefinger has said explicitly on at least one occasion that he thrives with chaos. He knows he is intelligent enough to manipulate the situation while everyone else is distracted by war, so he starts the ball rolling and just goes with it and tries to turn things to his advantage at every turn. We don't need to ascribe magical foresight.

[streetad]

Littlefinger isn't executing some perfectly planned log con - that's what Varys does. Baelish is basically very good at kicking over anthills and making sure he is in a position to benefit from the ensuing chaos.

We have seen him make mistakes this season - if what he said to Sansa can be taken at face value he misunderstood the nature of Ramsey Snow and also overestimated Stannis's chances of beating the Boltons (potentially, not understanding the northern weather being a factor).

He's put himself in a position that his plan B (attacking the Boltons himself on behalf of the crown in reprisal for 'sheltering' Sansa Stark) also gets him what he wants -however I don't think Sansa being brutalised and going on the run suits his plans at all...

[Ralin]

Not only had he predicted it, he intentionally started it, by having Lisa poison Jon Arryn, then pin the blame on the Lannisters.

Exactly.

Littlefinger knew that the crown's position was tenuous, and knew that picking at the rift between the Lannisters and Baratheon/Starks would destabilize the realm. Of course it's ridiculous to assume that Littlefinger predicted every single event that's happened since then, but we don't have to make that assumption. Littlefinger has said explicitly on at least one occasion that he thrives with chaos. He knows he is intelligent enough to manipulate the situation while everyone else is distracted by war, so he starts the ball rolling and just goes with it and tries to turn things to his advantage at every turn. We don't need to ascribe magical foresight.

Which means he probably does have substantial contacts and secret deals with sellsword companies, especially given the millions of gold dragons/stags (I forget which) he's probably embezzled. Though that's the sort of thing he'd break out for the endgame, not Stannis out on the frozen ass of Westeros.

[TheHammer]

Amnesty, new paymasters, and a place to go to restock that isn't Castle Black, that would be paradise. Having a boss that sets his enemies and his own family on fire probably tipped the scales a bit, too.

What if Littlefinger had bribed the sellsword commanders to betray Stannis at the proper time? Having them inside Bolton's army would also give him and the Vale knights another edge in battle.

He would have been better served to have Stannis with the stronger army and the boltons the strong defensive position so that they could exhaust each other. The way it worked out, the Boltons are not significantly weakened by STannis and it leaves Littlefinger in a more precarious position.

Besides, after Stannis' army is defeated the sellswords (if that is in fact where they went) were most likely sent packing. Any good CK2 GoT player like Roose knows you don't keep mercenaries around sucking up gold and potentially betraying you after their need has passed.

[Ralin]

Besides, after Stannis' army is defeated the sellswords (if that is in fact where they went) were most likely sent packing butchered en masse. Any good CK2 GoT player like Roose knows you don't keep mercenaries around sucking up gold and potentially betraying you after their need has passed.

There, I fixed it for you.

[Simon_Jester]

Eh, I don't know. They'd probably put up a fight, and Roose can't afford to lose soldiers even if he has defeated (most of) the direct threats to his authority. Given that the northern winter is just setting in, if he says "go" to the mercenaries, I'd expect them to go.

[Ralin]

Sellswords that aren't working for Roose Bolton are a direct threat to his authority, and one best dealt with while they're tired and drunk and surrounded by his troops.

[Block]

Sellswords that aren't working for Roose Bolton are a direct threat to his authority, and one best dealt with while they're tired and drunk and surrounded by his troops.

That's a great way to never get mercenaries to work for you again. It's not necessary either. Pay them and they'll go looking for work elsewhere.