Lord of the Flies Writ Large (Scenario Discussion)

[Majin Gojira]

This idea has been turning around in my head and I want to air it out/get some thoughts on the details of it. As the subject suggests, this is a general scenario similar to Lord of the Flies but Writ Large. As it currently stands, for unknown reasons, every living humanoid above the age of 24 disappears one day, leaving the young ones to fend for themselves.

Since there are at least a few people of 'professional' age still around, I'm trying to figure out how that would affect the general societal and infrastructural collapse that occurs in the wake of this event. Does it help, or does it make it worse? And how long will it take for new 'societies' to spring up in the wake of this event? What do you think they'd be like?

When doing some basic research, I figured that that this would basically cut he world's population in half in the initial loss. How bad do you think the attrition/loss would be in the wake of this event's chaos? Where do you think the new 'centers of power' would end up being? Would there be any remnants of any old government/society?

When originally concocting this scenario, I was thinking of placing it in the Marvel Universe -- in that case, I should mention that this disappearance applies to damn near all human-like entities within the required range (Bird People, Atlanteans, Inhumans, Mutants, etc), but some things are exempt (mystical beings with human form like vampires & Gods). And the effects are limited to the Solar System. I've got some ideas for what societies would spring form there, but I want a 'real world' comparison/competition version as well to flesh things out.

This discussion is open to looking at this idea from either a 'real world' stance, or a Marvel Universe stance (or both).

The way I figure it, after the initial loss, even with a few people still in 'command' positions. It won't be enough to prevent widespread cascading failures of infrastructure. I see very few places retaining any semblance of power for very long -- especially if it's fossil fuel based. Because of that, and general loss of processed foods and their easy access, the die-off/struggles after the disappearance may be as bad or worse than the disappearance itself. Generally, the more inter-connected, the worse things become for the survivors. Throw in disease and desperation, and I see it as a new Dark Age before the year is out.

But that's just my thought. What society forms in the wake of this would be very region dependent, but I'm not sure what they'd be like quite yet. Hence me asking all these questions.

So -- speculate away! A world without full-fledged adults. What happens?

[FaxModem1]

Jeremiah, the JMS Showtime TV show, covered this pretty well. Their disease took out anyone above the age of puberty, not 24, but I think it would essentially be the same. Utter chaos and anarchy for the first couple years, a mass die off of infants due to no infrastructure of parents to take care of them, some people coming together, lots of warfare and violence, eventually with small city-states establishing and wandering bands of nomads or bandits roaming around. Everything pre-event would be held up in high esteem for a while, with everyone at their 24th or 25th birthday sweating that they'll disappear too.

Actually, if people disappear once they turn 25, that might permanently affect how society goes on due to realizing that doing or planning anything longterm is pointless due to your disappearing after reaching a certain age, combined with a huge amount of hormones from puberty and the anarchy of no real adults being around will make a world of 'Do whatever you want, it doesn't matter'.

[Majin Gojira]

I'll have to look into that, but i wonder how long it would take for the various tribes and fiefdom to take root in this scenario? A year? 5 Years? Jeremiah at least confirms that multiple 'heirs' of the old government and religion are worth playing with as concepts for the fiefdoms.

[Purple]

It depends massively on the place. In urban areas you'll end up with gangs forming rather quickly, but probably won't ever get any form of urban government. Where as rural areas where everyone already farms for a living, especially in poorer nations that don't rely so much on mechanization and more importunately farming cash crops to sell you'll end up seeing it within a year.

[B5B7]

The old movie Wild in the Streets dealt with a similar situation.

[Majin Gojira]

The old movie Wild in the Streets dealt with a similar situation.

Of course I now realize that the MST3K entry "City Limits" has a similar origin for it's world to the idea I'm toying with.

[FaxModem1]

I'll have to look into that, but i wonder how long it would take for the various tribes and fiefdom to take root in this scenario? A year? 5 Years? Jeremiah at least confirms that multiple 'heirs' of the old government and religion are worth playing with as concepts for the fiefdoms.

If you want, you can watch it here on Hulu.

There's a reason the show takes place 15 years after the plague. Even attempting to make a form of civilization would be hard as adults, but with only 2 billion people around, with no doctors around, or any actual professionals, things are going to be rather spaced out and bare.

Some huge families on farms would be lucky, as there would be people in their twenties or teenagers who have grown up taking care of farms their entire lives. There might also be those who were far enough in medical school or engineering to help get things going, if they have a support network of people to help out. If not, they might die out and regress to even before the middle ages in knowledge.

There might also be a wave of destruction from youths who love the fact that they have no responsibility anymore, and decide to destroy all the schools, libraries and other places they hated growing up. Gangs of wandering kids who are following someone strong enough to bully them into compliance might be a problem.

And again, what happens when people reach 24, do they disappear, or was that just a one time thing?

[Majin Gojira]

It's a one-time thing.

I also agree that there would be huge tracts of wild/wild reclaiming areas out there, but I also wonder if the various proto-societies might end up being close to each other for resources or 'familiar locations'.

[Purple]

Honestly I do not think there would be such a thing as a "proto society". More likely what we'd see is gangs of 10-20 people, basically how ever many a single bully and his friends can keep in line. And after a while we'd see the more capable of such gangs attacking and subjugating others. But it would be more like hunter-gatherer tribes than anything resembling a society.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Honestly I do not think there would be such a thing as a "proto society". More likely what we'd see is gangs of 10-20 people, basically how ever many a single bully and his friends can keep in line. And after a while we'd see the more capable of such gangs attacking and subjugating others. But it would be more like hunter-gatherer tribes than anything resembling a society.

I strongly disagree.

24 really isn't THAT young. We aren't talking just children here. Especially in less affluent areas, a 24 year old can easily be a skilled tradesman (mechanic, carpenter, plumber, etc.), which are EXACTLY the kind of skills you want someone to have in this type of scenario. And this isn't even getting into the people who have already graduated college by 24 and become engineers, businessmen, etc.

While obviously the disruptive effects would be enormous, and the immediate aftermath would be essential chaos, I don't see any reason why down the road a "proto-society" wouldn't form. Already, in real world disaster situations, we don't see everyone start murdering their neighbors immediately; most people have a pretty strong instinct to help other people. Over time, it is our natural inclination to want to band together into larger groups .... and this isn't even getting into the undeniable presence of people who actively want to restart civilization as opposed to just trying to survive. I can't predict how long it might take, but I think it is borderline ludicrous to assert that it will never happen and everyone just lives in gangs.

I mean, if you really believe that people WOULDN'T form a "proto-society", how the fuck do you even think humans started our current society in the first place? Act of Q? Humans have a societal impulse. End of story.

[Purple]

24 really isn't THAT young. We aren't talking just children here. Especially in less affluent areas, a 24 year old can easily be a skilled tradesman (mechanic, carpenter, plumber, etc.), which are EXACTLY the kind of skills you want someone to have in this type of scenario. And this isn't even getting into the people who have already graduated college by 24 and become engineers, businessmen, etc.

The issue here are not skills but resources. Simply put, population density just took a massive dive. And with it so has the infrastructure that keeps people going. All those plumbers and carpenters are not going to be of much use if the only wood you can get is chopping up park benches and no water is going down the pipes because the power plants aren't fueling the pumps at the waterworks because there is no one to mine the coal etc.

While obviously the disruptive effects would be enormous, and the immediate aftermath would be essential chaos, I don't see any reason why down the road a "proto-society" wouldn't form. Already, in real world disaster situations, we don't see everyone start murdering their neighbors immediately; most people have a pretty strong instinct to help other people. Over time, it is our natural inclination to want to band together into larger groups .... and this isn't even getting into the undeniable presence of people who actively want to restart civilization as opposed to just trying to survive. I can't predict how long it might take, but I think it is borderline ludicrous to assert that it will never happen and everyone just lives in gangs.

Not newer, but certainly not in the short term. You'd start off with gangs scavenging for what ever food is left in the now waterless, powerless, supplyless cities. And than these gangs would start conquering other gangs so you would end up with proto-tribes. As I said. Rebuilding society however requires the capability to either migrate into the countryside or less likely try and get the infrastructure running again.

I mean, if you really believe that people WOULDN'T form a "proto-society", how the fuck do you even think humans started our current society in the first place? Act of Q? Humans have a societal impulse. End of story.

It's not about the will. Past humans had massive advantages over most of the worlds population in this scenario. They were hunter gatherers who knew and were accustomed to hardship and had decent survival skills. A modern city, small town or really anything but 3rd world rural citizen is the antithesis of this. We don't know how to farm for food if our life depended on it.

[Esquire]

Fortunately there are these wonderful devices called "books" that can help explain it to us.

[Purple]

In theory. Put simply, even though the knowledge is there for the taking a lot of young people today will not be able to get to it. Your local library is not likely to have as many copies of the "idiots guide to subsistence farming" as they are of say LOTR. And at least in urban areas I imagine people would refuse to migrate to the countryside for as long as there is stuff to scavenge from existing supplies, which given the shelf life of canned and processed food could be years.

[Majin Gojira]

In theory. Put simply, even though the knowledge is there for the taking a lot of young people today will not be able to get to it. Your local library is not likely to have as many copies of the "idiots guide to subsistence farming" as they are of say LOTR. And at least in urban areas I imagine people would refuse to migrate to the countryside for as long as there is stuff to scavenge from existing supplies, which given the shelf life of canned and processed food could be years.

And with that, I'm picturing Water World style cultural divisions between Rural and Urban groups.

[GuppyShark]

I'm not convinced it would be a complete catastrophe.

Firstly and foremost, there would still be police. I don't have statistics, but I imagine a lot of police are serving competently in their early 20s.

In almost all professions there would be a power vacuum as senior positions suddenly become vacant. Juniors would then be fast tracked to fill those positions. They might not be as capable or as experienced as their predecessors but the difference is unlikely to be civilisation-ending.

For healthcare, there won't be as many experienced doctors around but there will also be a tiny fraction of the number of patients. Under 25s require far less healthcare investment than the rest of the population.

Demographically, the western world is currently going through an abnormal age distribution as the Baby Boomers come up to (and push back) retirement age. Something like this in hindsight might be seen as a corrective measure.

[Solauren]

First, it's going to look like the 'Life After People' series, as well as 'Aftermath: Population Zero'. Except we are left with young adults and teenagers.

Copied from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath:_Population_Zero
I've added noted below each entry that are my speculation on what happens with the survivors

Within the First minute
Thousands of empty cars spin out of control and crash, while others swerve off roads and highways. Other vehicles crash also including buses in Trafalgar Square. All of the empty vehicles eventually crash, causing multiple accidents all across the globe. The highways are blocked with smashed and burning vehicles. Stationary cars continue to release exhaust fumes into the air until their fuel supplies run out. Cities have begun to cool down by a fraction of a degree. Airplanes crash back to earth.

Scenario Speculation: There will be deaths of those under 24 from this. Children in cars will be the heaviest affected, followed by 16 - 24 year old motorists.
Some of these crashes will lead to fires, which, for the most part, will spread unchecked.

Within Ten minutes
The machines will keep going as long as the electricity stays on. But all the fuel is used up in coal power plants. The electricity runs out and the power plants shut down. Billions of buildings supplied that get their energy from them, fall into darkness. Entire suburbs go dark. Homes, schools, hospitals and cafes are now all without power.

Scenario Speculation: Black outs may not be as bad at this point, as some power plants probably have trained staff under the age of 24. However, their will still be blackouts.
Odds are, survivors start freaking out worse then they already are.

Within an hour
Certain regions rely on alternative energy sources, like Pennsylvania, which is powered by wind turbines. The turbines are still running, but at the local power station, the controls are unmanned. Computers detect a problem and shut down the system. Pennsylvania is now without electricity.

Scenario Speculation: Again, depends on the staffing at power stations.

Within 90 minutes
At Niagara Falls, Canada, water from the river is diverted into tunnels to turn massive wheels to create power, but now, the tunnels flood with excessive water and the power station goes offline. New York and Ontario lose all of their power. Televisions, computers, lights and other machines stop running. Mass blackouts sweep across the globe.
Within just one day, only nuclear power plants remain operational. The permanent loss of power reaches the nuclear power plants. Computers shut off the reactors and stop the reactions inside, but the nuclear power plants could cause a potential catastrophe.

Scenario Speculation: There are probably note enough under 24 workers in power plants to keep the power grid running much longer then this.

Within 6 hours
The last power plants in Europe fail, and the last houses go dark as lights fail. Chemical plants now have no power. Many stored gases require electricity to be cold enough to stay in liquid form. Gas storage tanks heat up until pressure release valves are activated, sending toxic gases into the surrounding environment. Hundreds of thousands of tanks all venting together cause many animals in the affected regions to die of suffocation.

Scenario Speculation: Now the survivors have to deal with toxic gas clouds. Casualties are going to go up amongst the survivors.

Within 2 days
Houses and apartments are still inhabited by family pets. The domestic animals are getting hungry. Chained dogs try to get free. Cats and dogs raid refrigerators and drink from toilets. The global power loss reaches the world's zoos and safari parks, and starving animals test the fences. Without electric fencing to contain them, predators escape and explore this new world.

Also, liquefied natural gas plants are venting gases which reach stationary cars. Eventually, sparks ignite petrol in fuel tanks and the fuel catches fire. This causes huge explosions, igniting multiple fires that will rage for days.

Scenario Speculation: Now the survivors have to deal with large fires, explosions, and predatory animals that are used to humans looking at them.

Within 5 days
In London, England, Big Ben rings for the last time. The clock tower needs to be rewound but without the human race, it will finally grind to a halt. Human time and human history have ended. In homes and apartments, domestic pets are starving. Now they must break out of their homes or starve to death.
Pet dogs and cats exhaust all the food in their homes and break out to search for more in the streets. Cats adapt quickly to hunting. Sewage treatment facilities fail without electricity, leaving sewage treatment plants useless. Raw sewage begins polluting rivers and lakes. Abandoned dogs struggle to survive.
In farms and pastures all over the world, dairy cows are struggling to survive as their food and water supplies begin to end. In a cruel twist of fate, 90,000 dairy cows are saved from the slaughterhouse, but most of their numbers will die of dehydration. Zoo animals face a similar fate as many will die trapped in their enclosures
Some zoo animals do escape through useless electric fences. Elephants start pruning the suburbs of vegetation in a desperate search for food, whilst hardier animals like camels browse on all available vegetation. Lions and tigers fan out into the streets to hunt but find hunting challenging in the city as they are not adapted for life in an urban setting.
Migratory birds find travelling easier now since electric lights from office towers and skyscrapers do not confuse them anymore.

Scenario Speculation: Obviously, human history is still going. I doubt diary cow deaths will be as high in this scenario, but I doubt they'll be low.


Within 10 days
As days pass, domestic dogs eat all easily available food and begin to fight amongst each other for supremacy. The bigger dogs make packs and attack and eat the small ones. Within a week, all toy dogs disappear from Earth. Large packs of dogs also feed on dead penned up cattle.

Scenario Speculation: At this point, survivors may not be safe from the dog packs.

Security measures in power plants fail. The equipment in the spent fuel buildings adjoining nuclear power plants that maintain the temperature level of the spent nuclear fuel rods will shut down. Spent nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants is generally stored in pools in on-site facilities. Because the fossil fuel powered back up, power generators will run out. At that time, the cooling pools that prevent the spent nuclear fuel from overheating will start to boil since this water is not replenished.

Radioactive steam will vent into the atmosphere due to the water eventually evaporating. The spent fuel will eventually set fire to the building, and the steam pressure will cause the storage facilities to explode, causing a (non nuclear) explosion, emitting radiation not only in the immediate area of the plant but around the globe due to winds. The resulting nuclear disasters spread fallout over large areas. This is repeated dozens of times as shutdown nuclear plants and spent fuel houses explode. Radioactive clouds cross the skies and rain carries the radiation to the ground. Most plants and small animals within the affected zones die. The bigger ones (like deer) flee to unaffected regions, not because they notice the radiation, but because of the lack of food.

Scenario Speculation: Now the survivors have to deal with radioactive fall out.

Within 1 month
Hungry dogs from cities flee to the countryside to feast on dead dairy cow. Six days after their water and food supplies began ending, dairy cows have completely finished them and died. Now, their rotting carcasses will do nothing more than sustain hungry dogs. On the other hand, not all cows are dead. Beef cattle survive and form herds that thrive in places like the North American Great Plains and the open pastures in the middle-eastern U.S.

Scenario Speculation: Actually, some diary cows will still be alive. However, the dog packs are now praying in the area.

The last domestic chickens are exterminated by predators, while fowl such as some domestic game, guineas, and peafowl are still alive. Mice take over abandoned supermarkets, where their population explodes thanks to the abundance of food. This pattern will continue for the next few months until the reduction of food and the action of predators like cats regulates their populations again. Squirrels, raccoons, coyotes and skunks begin to colonize human buildings./i]

Scenario Speculation: Even if food stores are relocated, it will not be a complete relocate. And Animals are still coming.

Within 3 months
Radiation disappears from the air. In cities, air quality and visibility is improved. Packs of feral dogs roam the countryside. Desperate for food, they attack anything, even escaped elephants, but they don't have any success. Without humans, elephants have no real predators anymore. Meanwhile the descendants of pet cats are thriving in supermarkets and grocery stores by feasting on rats.

Scenario Speculation: Survivors have serious problems.

Within 6 months
Winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere. Zoo animals that cannot survive it, such as elephants, must migrate to southern latitudes or die. Meanwhile, without artificial heating, cockroaches die by the billions. Animals from the forests seek refuge in human homes. During their stay, they cause further damage to the abandoned furniture.

Scenario Speculation: And now we have another massive die off in areas were there were not sufficient people to keep the power on.


So.....
Most of the infrastructure we depend on ceases working, and actually causes damage as it fails, and nature starts to kick back at us.

If we are lucky, we end up in a scenario similar to RIFTS Earth. Some pockets of civilization, but shit loads of dangerous wilds.

[Majin Gojira]

One thing to add to that is the point that during 9/11 when most planes were grounded, scientists recorded a small increase in temperature due to the decrease in cloud cover created by the constant plane travel of our society.

So that might increase overall temperatures. However, after everything stops burning, with not as many greenhouse gasses being poured out into the atmosphere . . . how would that affect the overall climate when considered together?

Overall, long term improvement. Short term? I can't say at least.

[Solauren]

Check the link I put in to Wikipedia. it includes the long term environmental changes. Temperatures drop and the climate returns to what it was pre-industrial times.