What if Margaery married Robert (ASOIAF AU)

[Darth Yan]

In the book Renly was planning to put Margaery in Robert's path to have her replace Cersei as queen. What would have happened had the plan succeeded (how would the marriage have turned out, would Robert have lived longer or would the tyrell's have poisoned him once he got Margaery with child?) Would there be war with Tywin Lannister and how would it play out?

[Jade Owl]

Impossible to tell unless we know some things first:

1. How did they got rid of Cersei? Did Robert just divorce her or do they have her killed?

2. What about the children? Does their mother removal mean they're declared illegitimate? Is Joffrey still the heir?

Without knowing that it's impossible to make an accurate guess.

[Nephtys]

The only reason any war started was basically collective accidents involving all parties.

Without Cersei resenting being married to Robert, and having bastard children, none of the Lannister impetus for war would have happened.

Renly was only going to wed Margery to secure an alliance with a major power and to grant him the manpower to win the war. Without again, Cersei being Queen and the war from Robert's death, none of that would have happened.

[Raw Shark]

In the book Renly was planning to put Margaery in Robert's path to have her replace Cersei as queen. What would have happened had the plan succeeded (how would the marriage have turned out, would Robert have lived longer or would the tyrell's have poisoned him once he got Margaery with child?) Would there be war with Tywin Lannister and how would it play out?

(Assuming that Robert throws Cersei and the kids under the bus here, by accusing her of treason w/ Jaime): The War of Five Kings doesn't happen, first off. Cersei is offered the chance to join the Silent Sisters or something instead of execution, but Tywin goes totally ballistic and spirits her away (or she dies in the attempt; either way, the interesting part of her story is probably pretty much over and we don't get those spiraling crazypants chapters in AFFC), before setting Gregor Clegane loose on the Stormlands instead of the Riverlands as a distraction while he calls his banners. He beats on a combined Baratheon / Tyrell / Stark force (possibly including Stannis and his crew now that the Cersei problem has been fixed), pouring out the blood of sellswords, freeriders, and lesser bannermen until he feels like his pride has been soothed, it gets too expensive, and/or Balon Greyjoy raiding his shoreline in his absence gets too annoying, then tries to backtrack. Olenna doesn't gank Robert unless he slaps Margaery around, which is IMHO unlikely because she isn't as mouthy and bitter as Cersei. Littlefinger and Varys, acting independently, mess with that and keep the conflict going as much as possible and don't really change much else. Dorne is even more hostile to the crown now, but keeps it low-key and sticks to the original plan. The Wall does not get several infusions of exiles and is even more undermanned than before when the Other situation comes to a head. Things in Essos proceed more-or-less as-written.

[Crazedwraith]

Except; Danni doesn't get Barristan on her side. And that could have serious knock on consequences for her. From the immediate, possibly being assassinated at least a couple times to not knowing about Jorah's duplicity.

[Vaporous]

I don't see Tywin moving immediately unless he thinks he can get Dorn on his side at the very least. There's no way he wins a prolonged war against all of Westeros alone, and he's smart enough to know it.

The wildcards here and Varys and Littlefinger. I'm not sure how we accurately predict how they'll behave except that they'll tend towards inducing the maximum amount of chaos.

[Ralin]

I don't see Tywin moving immediately unless he thinks he can get Dorn on his side at the very least. There's no way he wins a prolonged war against all of Westeros alone, and he's smart enough to know it.

I think Tywin is smart enough to know that he is the single last person in Westeros Dorne would align themselves with.

[PKRudeBoy]

The idea of Tywin getting Dorne on his side is ludicrous. The Martells may have hated Robert, but nowhere near as much as they hated the Lannisters, since it was Tywin's bannermen who killed Elia and her children. The Stormlands and the Reach would obviously support the Crown, and I can't see any way that the North and the Riverlands wouldn't. Depending on the time that this happens, either Jon Arryn or Lysa controls the Vale, and even if Lysa is in control, I can't see her siding against Robert for the Lannisters. The only one that even might swing Tywins way is Greyjoy, but he is an opportunist, and I doubt he would join up with a losing proposition, especially since the Starks still have his son.

[Vaporous]

The idea of Tywin getting Dorne on his side is ludicrous. The Martells may have hated Robert, but nowhere near as much as they hated the Lannisters, since it was Tywin's bannermen who killed Elia and her children. The Stormlands and the Reach would obviously support the Crown, and I can't see any way that the North and the Riverlands wouldn't. Depending on the time that this happens, either Jon Arryn or Lysa controls the Vale, and even if Lysa is in control, I can't see her siding against Robert for the Lannisters. The only one that even might swing Tywins way is Greyjoy, but he is an opportunist, and I doubt he would join up with a losing proposition, especially since the Starks still have his son.

Agreed.

The only weapon the Lannisters have left is money. They obviously cut Robert off from all those cheap loans he was getting. Maybe the Iron Bank gets involved.

[Ralin]

The only weapon the Lannisters have left is money. They obviously cut Robert off from all those cheap loans he was getting. Maybe the Iron Bank gets involved.

Robert just might be dumb enough to tell the Iron Bank to go fuck itself like Cersei did. And Tywin would be someone they could trust in his place. A Lannister always pays his debts, after all.

[Vympel]

The Wall does not get several infusions of exiles and is even more undermanned than before when the Other situation comes to a head.

Does that matter? Ned Stark rules from Winterfell, the moment he hears from Jon that shit is going down he'll call the banners and have the Wall manned by 20,000 Northmen.

[Ahriman238]

Timing is important too. Robert was a terrible king with an awesome support staff, and if this plan happens before Jon Arryn dies, there's a real chance to preserve the peace, just because Robert's number one man will be diplomatic, charismatic and not rub in the developing Stark/Lannister rivalry with everything he says and does.

[Crazedwraith]

Timing is important too. Robert was a terrible king with an awesome support staff, and if this plan happens before Jon Arryn dies, there's a real chance to preserve the peace, just because Robert's number one man will be diplomatic, charismatic and not rub in the developing Stark/Lannister rivalry with everything he says and does.

Well given that Renly approached Ned with a painting of Margaery to ask if she really did look like Lyanna, the plan canonically should take place mid to late GoT. Well after Jon Arryn's death.

[Ahriman238]

Timing is important too. Robert was a terrible king with an awesome support staff, and if this plan happens before Jon Arryn dies, there's a real chance to preserve the peace, just because Robert's number one man will be diplomatic, charismatic and not rub in the developing Stark/Lannister rivalry with everything he says and does.

Well given that Renly approached Ned with a painting of Margaery to ask if she really did look like Lyanna, the plan canonically should take place mid to late GoT. Well after Jon Arryn's death.

Ah, okay then. That's a bit harder, since the feud has started and Ned is roughly as diplomatic as high explosives.

[PKRudeBoy]

I don't think that money would be a huge issue in this either. AFAIK, the Crown owes the Iron Bank about half of what it owes the Lannisters so over half his debt is being wiped out right away. Furthermore, the Iron Bank would probably be more then willing to keep funding Robert, as not only would it increase their influence in the Seven Kingdoms by becoming the biggest lender there, but if Robert takes Casterly Rock, he would easily be able to repay his debts. As far as mercenaries go, I think it would be more difficult for Tywin to hire them, considering he now has to have his representatives travel all the way around the continent instead of leaving from King's Landing, as well as the mercenaries having to make that longer voyage while avoiding the King's fleet and the Redwyne fleet.

[xerex]

a lot of what ifs and maybes but if the Tyrell plan is combined with the revelation of Cersei's adultery and incest then.

Cersei and Jamie get put on trial for treason

Tywin tries to by the trial, if he fails then he tries to get Cersei sent to the silent sisters and Jamie sent to the wall instead of being executed.

Joffey , Tommen and Myrcella are declared bastards, not sure what happens to them afterwards.

Tywin writes Tyrion out of is will and declares Kevan is heir, not sure what happens to Tyrion after.

The Tyrells replace the Lannistes as Robert's bank.

Ned Stark remains alive as Hand of he King.

[Faqa]

Here's a fun thought - I could see Varys going along with this plan. It creates a huge division in the realm while putting off immediate war.

Why?

Because with Cersei and her retinue gone from court, Ned's immediate digging stops, or at the very least becomes less urgent, as he becomes preoccupied with this. It also removes the most immediate threat to Robert's life from court. The question is whether Lannister armies will march over the insult... but with Tyrell and Baratheon forces on one side, with possibly Tully as well, not to mention Stark remaining at worst neutral (he won't like it - I doubt northern honor exactly smiles on putting aside your wife - but what he would probably do is say "fuck these southerners" and go back north. Although Tywin might try to make a case of him being honor-bound to fight against this outrage.... and wouldn't that be interesting?). Martell obviously has no reason to do anything but open a bag of popcorn. This picture is very very bad for Tywin, who therefore will probably just swallow his pride and sulk in Casterly Rock.

So, you have Tywin Lannister sulking in the Rock after being insulted by the King, and Varys expects a challenger to the throne to shortly arrive. What happened in this scenario last time?

So yeah, I could see Varys wanting to make this happen and that means the parentage of Cersei's children becomes a bargaining chip in the game. Probably used as blackmail material used to get Cersei to leave quietly. The Faith will be given an incentive to give Robert a hassle-free reason to leave the marriage. So this WILL happen if Renly sets it in motion.

Of course, Lannister will just take this as an additional incentive to just KILL Robert already. Note that if they don't manage this, then House Lannister in all probability retreats to Casterly Rock, with Tyrion sent back if Catelyn has taken him by this point (probably has - the chapter in which she takes him is pretty close to the chapter in which this plan is only a vague musing). Tywin WILL want to avenge this insult, but he has no plausible deniability under which to send Gregor Clegane and co - whatever Lannister bannermen do will be perceived as a reaction to Cersei being dethroned. So in this scenario, things diverge too much to really make any predictions. Though in all probability, Tywin will cooperate with Aegon when he lands, since Aegon is somewhat less inclined to hold a grudge against him.

If, on the other hand, they strike whilst this plan is partially complete, they get a nice fat bonus of pulling off their coup with Margery Tyrell in King's Landing. In a single stroke, this catapults them to victory - with Mace Tyrell's daughter as hostage, Tyrell will get drawn into a marriage alliance with Lannister, and sooner rather than later. In this case, I'm guessing the War Of The Five Kings is almost completely avoided in the south. Renly makes a place for himself in the new order via his boyfriend, Stannis is a complete wild card. He will probably rebel nonetheless, but without being able to murder his way to the Tyrells, I don't see what he can do. Maybe Dorne? They're gonna hate this new order even more than the old one. The north? If Ned and his kids manage to get out intact, I'm guessing the north basically stays itself, with somewhat frostier relations with the throne. If not, Robb will almost certainly wage total war against House Lannister no matter what, only his odds of success are even slimmer than in the original. So I'm guessing you get something similar to the situation in ADWD (minus Stannis. Again, who knows about him?).

[Ultonius]

since Aegon is somewhat less inclined to hold a grudge against him.

I think I might hold a grudge against someone who ordered the murders of me and my toddler sister, presented the bodies of her and the infant he believed was me to the man who had killed my father, and failed to punish (indeed, continued to employ) the man who, after killing the fake me, raped and murdered my mother.

[Solauren]

If Robert finds out about the twincest and resulting bastards, he could easily imprison them for the death of the Hand of the King, and then 'ransom' them back to their father for say, total forgiveness of his debt to the Lannisters, followed by paying the debt to the Iron bank for him.

In exchange, Robert and his court keep silent, but the kids are disinherited, and none of this becomes public.

If their father doesn't pay up, treason, execution, and war declaration on the Lannisters.