Does this seem like a logical series of events?

[kaeneth]

Day 1 Minus 1 Year
The main character is laid off.

The main character is digging in his back yard and discovers a large tome in an airtight stone box. The main character becomes convinced the Apocalypse is coming by the next morning.

He starts to read the Tome he found every day.

Day 1 Minus 11 Months
The main character has spent the last month trying to convince the World, friends, and family that the End is Nigh. He is committed for psychological evaluation. He is released after a week of observation and everyone believes he had a nervous breakdown due to being laid off.

He receives visions nightly 'Of the End'

Day 1 Minus 10 Months
The main character puts his house up for sale and plans to leverage every dollar he has (e.g. Sell car, lease replacement with a fraction of the money) with plans to run out of 'real world cash' a week before the world ends. He plots and schemes to maximise his supply of gasoline, foodstuffs, and other items the week before the Cataclysm.

The visions 'Of the End' have stopped. Instead, he begins to practice some of the things he read in the Tome in his dreams. He tries them when he is awake only to find they do nothing. He shrugs them off for now.

Day 1 Minus 2 Months
The House has finally sold and the money exchanged hands. Far, far later than he had hoped. He rushes to buy a small plot of land with a small house in the boonies (I'm leaning towards near the Colorado River near Blythe, CA). He has a rush job of a cement block wall built around the edge of the property and to make a few repairs.

Inside the property, he starts to stockpile supplies and makes plans to illegally divert water from the nearby Colorado River.

Day 1 Minus 2 Weeks
He stops stockpiling supplies a bit earlier than expected because the cost for the diversion is going to be more than expected (e.g. He is hiring people to do something illegal so it costs quite a bit. He ends up using forged paperwork.).

The last shipment of chickens and tools arrive.

Day 1 Minus 2 Days
The small diversion is completed, the police stop by with a legal judgement ordering him to undo the illegal 'improvements'. He plants seeds on his land instead.

His miniature farm will be barely ready in time but it will keep him well supplied after the Apocalypse....or he just ruined his life.

Day 1
Non-animal life replicates at a prodigious pace. Century old trees appear all over the world, overnight. Roads, buildings, sewage systems, water transport systems....all are severly damaged. Bridges collapse. Human transportation infrastructure is crippled, preventing the reliable supply of cities.

The Risen Two-Natured, feral and out of control, start slaughtering humans and killing millions. Police forces, miltias, and the national militaries are overwhelmed as they are attacked by their own personnel. The heavy weapons of the military are not brought to bear on the Enemy due to the Two Natured's virtual immunity to localized infantry weapons. Pilots are attacked enroute to their planes, tank personnel might find themselves with a Were inside some of their tanks. Ultimately, they are able to respond but not on the scale needed to contain the situation.

Fresh food in grocery stores and refrigerators are overwhelmed by various molds. The world's grain supplies are greatly reduced by mold and the like. The food loss is offset by unprecedented harvests being available immediately due to the same effect on the crops.

Hospitals become epicenters for disease as the rapid growth of viruses and medication-resistant bacteria infect the majority of the patients and personnel.

The main character stays awake all night to watch the 'Apocalypse'. He watches his seeds turn into full grown crops overnight. His chickens, with wings clipped, peck about in the field. He feels vindicated only to be pounced on by one of the Twonatured. He is mauled badly as he desperately attempts to repeat the 'magic' in his dreams. This time, it works, and the Twonatured (a woman) is killed and he has her corpse in the middle of his garden.

Day 2
Extensive power outages as power plant workers refuse to go to work as they try to save their families.

Chlorine tanks, liquified natural gas tanks, and other chemical containments systems that are power dependent fail, causing fires and explosions. The surrounding areas become contaminated, possibly killing people and/or animals beyond the initial explosion.

Humans flee the cities in fear of the diseased and the 'mystery animals'.

The day after the full moon comes, the various military and police forces have 'cleansed' their ranks during the initial slaughter for the most part. The slaughter of humans, due to reduced concentration and numbers of the Two Natured, is greatly reduced. Soldiers encounter 'strange creatures', generally rarer than the Two Natured, and are generally opening fire on anything sufficiently 'strange'. Combat between government forces and the 'unnatural' increases due to the natural human reaction of attacking 'monsters' after spending the previous night being slaughtered by them.

The Human Population has been cut almost in half by the Two Natured (About 5% of the population becomes Two Natured. About 4% of that is wiped out but they generally kill an average of 10 people in the process).

The main character basically stays inside his cinderblock walls as people flee Blythe. He harvests his crops instead, stockpiling them in the structure's cool basement.

Day 3 - 7
Some Humans return to the cities to scavenge.

Dogs, cats, and other pets exhaust supplies of food and go feral or starve.

Water pumps in sewage treatment plants fail rendering them useless and polluting the water supply.

Livestock food and water supply is exhausted.

Zoo animals escape or starve.

Nuclear plant security fails, causing non-nuclear explosions and releasing large quantities of radiation into the surrounding area. Large parts of the world suffer low levels of irradiation, reducing fertility.

Supplies of Gasoline and other critical commodities are exhausted locally and the collapse of civilisation has disrupted re-supply. Parts of the supply chain function erratically, generally to re-supply centralised dump sites under government control.

The lack of a direct threat, combined with mass starvation, has basically destroyed civilisation. Centralised government control technically exists, however, the ability of society to enforce its laws is non-existent. The governments' control of civilisation extends only as far as their soldiers.

Some soldiers, police, and militia forces desert in the wake of this disaster due to combat stress (killing friends, loved ones, acquaintances..as the Twonatured shift back when dead...has to be awful on the mind), a need to keep their loved ones safe from the 'monsters', simple disillusionment with 'The System', or other reasons of that nature. Civilian casualties, due to the fact Twonatured shift back on death, at the hands of the military, police, and national guard become noticed by the civilian population at large and the Military Justice system is overwhelmed by the sheer number of incidents, creating a PR disaster that cannot be contained through mass media communications. The civilian population has a healthy distrust of the 'Good Guys' (in many countries) and stop cooperating with the government on a massive scale. 'Monsters' continue to 'attack' (generally, the monsters are fired on first which just escalates the problem) and strike back...hard. Most 'monsters' are nominally immune (e.g. It takes a dozen men to take one down) to individually infantrymen and the number of 'Monsters' in the population exceed the number of military, militia, and police forces.

The main character takes in a black, gay protestant preacher (intended to serve as his philosophical and social foil) and his family when their car breaks along the highway and they start walking towards the only lights at night (besides other cars). He kills some kind of Vampire as he escorts them inside, probably drawn by his lights or their shouted conversation across his walls. They bunker down together in his house. The Preacher and him discuss the merits of him discarding 'magic' as part of his way to save his soul. The main character is an atheist pragmatic type so he ultimately tells the Preacher No.

Day 8 - 15
Toy dogs are virtually extinct. Dogs begin to move in packs to hunt food for survival.

Hungry pets exhaust the city food supply and spread into the countryside.

Rodents take over supermarkets and other concentrations of vulnerable food until cats bring their population back down.

Livestock starve to death in droves if they fail to escape their pens.

Animals colonize abandoned humanoid buildings.

Rain and wind help spread the radiation from the nuclear pants far and wide.

The cities are picked clean of food and other critical resources.

Most of the Fall's human survivors live in the countryside, living off the land or on farms relying on chicken and other low-maintenance animals.

Government's ability to pay its people is essentially exhausted. Without banks, its impossible for them to deliver paychecks on the scale that is needed. In addition, the military is forced to forage in some areas due to orders to distribute supplies to the local population to reduce deaths due to starvation. The desertion rate has increased significantly. 'Monsters' continue to 'attack' (generally, the monsters are fired on first which just escalates the problem) and strike back...hard. Most 'monsters' are nominally immune (e.g. It takes a dozen men to take one down) to individually infantrymen and the number of 'Monsters' in the population exceed the number of military, militia, and police forces. The losses amongst the military, militia, and police have reached fatal-to-the-Institution levels and entire militaries, polices, and militia forces start to disband. The larger militaries, such as the US or China, remain nominally effective but they are disintegrating at an alarming rate.

The main character takes in a few others, building up a small community of a dozen people in his small 'territory'. Rumours circulate about his ability to protect people from Monsters when the government cannot. He and the Preacher assess his supply situation and agree that, practically speaking, a dozen is all he can take in if they are to survive long enough to plant crops and avoid a lack of protein (the only real source being his egg laying chickens due to a lack of beans, an oversight on his part).

Day 16 - 23

Humanity has, more or less, regressed socially to the Dark Ages in most of the world. Even large, first world militaries (e.g. the US) have ceased to exist as effective organizations. Individual military bases become more individual kingdoms than servants to the national interest. Nationalism still exists but there is no longer an effective government beyond the local level. The loyalty to the nation's organs of government is little more than lip service at this point.

Disease, starvation, and death have cut the Human population down to about 1.5 billion people, or about 25% of the original population. The dispersed Human Population begins to stabilise at this point with the 'massive food growth' of the first day keeping them alive. The massive death toll from disease has more or less stabilised, due to so many of the initial infected being overwhelmed before they could spread it far. However, many human populations (even or perhaps especially in the 'First World') are suffering massive outbreaks of Cholera and the like. The death rate would likely remain high amongst humans for the foreseeable future but it would be nothing like the 75%-dead-in-less-than-a-month.

(I'm undecided past this point, I just figured I'd see if this seemed logical so far.)

[kaeneth]

The main character is digging in his back yard to remove roots from an old tree and discovers a large tome in an airtight stone box. The main character becomes convinced the Apocalypse is coming by the next morning.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Well he finds a book that says the apocalypse is coming 'tomorrow'. Why would he keep following the book if its wrong every day for a year?

Also, its 100% illogical. The man is basing every decision he makes for an entire year on a book. There's no evidence, no confirmation, and no verification. This is the DEFINITION of illogical. What you're asking is 'is it reasonable'. Which depends. Joseph Smith allegedly found a 'book' buried in New York and created the mormon church.

[kaeneth]

Well he finds a book that says the apocalypse is coming 'tomorrow'. Why would he keep following the book if its wrong every day for a year?

That was my lack of clarity. I meant he becomes convinced it would happen in a year but I can't edit the original post. :/

Also, its 100% illogical. The man is basing every decision he makes for an entire year on a book. There's no evidence, no confirmation, and no verification. This is the DEFINITION of illogical. What you're asking is 'is it reasonable'. Which depends. Joseph Smith allegedly found a 'book' buried in New York and created the mormon church.

True.

For clarity's sake, I didn't mean the 'Is the guy behaving logically?'

I meant, assuming the guy is buying into that particular belief, is that a reasonable chain of events excluding the obviously Fantasy/Magical nature of the apocalypse in question?

[CaptainChewbacca]

And my point was, when you're dealing with a magical/mystical apocalypse which was foretold, NOTHING is reasonable.

I'd also be curious to know how he got out of a mental institution, started stockpiling stuff and selling his house in anticipation of the end of the world, and wasn't immediately committed again.

[kaeneth]

And my point was, when you're dealing with a magical/mystical apocalypse which was foretold, NOTHING is reasonable.

Okay.

I'd also be curious to know how he got out of a mental institution, started stockpiling stuff and selling his house in anticipation of the end of the world, and wasn't immediately committed again.

That is useful feedback

What would be a plausible explanation?

Right now, I'm basically going with:
1) He moved.
2) He waited 6+ months before he started stockpiling anything or otherwise behaving strangely. He also did it in another city.
3) Would he really be watched that closely after a temporary commitment for something that is basically being viewed as 'delusional/nervous break down'?

[Stofsk]

Depends on where he was committed i.e. what jurisdiction he falls under for involuntary commitment. The people doing the committing have to demonstrate that the person is a danger to others and/or himself before a judge will sign off on it.

Him 'acting strangely' i.e. selling his house, his car etc I doubt would fall under those qualifiers.

[kaeneth]

Thanks Stofsk.

So I'm not being unreasonable with that but just to be safe I might have it purely voluntary because friends/family/etc were concerned about him. He changes his tune when it quickly becomes clear the psychiatrist involved thinks he is nuts and blames it all on a mental breakdown. Would that be better?

[Stofsk]

Yes. Voluntary commitment doesn't have the whole 'we're going to keep you a prisoner here at this funny farm until WE decide you're fit to leave, which might be never' problem the previous vague description had. This seems to be an area you should research, as I am certain that the law varies between states and countries (since this is set in America, well there are 50 states to choose from).

You can also consider other consequences for his potential slip to mental instability. Say, if he had a wife and children they may have left when it became apparent he was obsessed with what he had read. You may even weave into the narrative how the relationship had been strained for some time and his recent obsession was the final straw. Considering the circumstances surrounding the End of Everything, the main character may even harbour deep, unrelenting guilt over losing his wife/family as a survivor, which may manifest itself in ways that could suggest he really is crazy or losing his hold on sanity.

Or he may go the other way, and simply not think about them/remove anything that reminds him of that earlier time - disposing of family photos, cutting his wedding ring off, etc. Although this could be handled as a symptom of the above.

[kaeneth]

Yes. Voluntary commitment doesn't have the whole 'we're going to keep you a prisoner here at this funny farm until WE decide you're fit to leave, which might be never' problem the previous vague description had. This seems to be an area you should research, as I am certain that the law varies between states and countries (since this is set in America, well there are 50 states to choose from).

Then I'll probably go with that...I'll have to research it. The commitment and a few other things are likely going to be backstory anyway, at this point. The more I think about it, the more starting the first 'magical night' when he sees plants grow at a rate of a minute instead of 6 months seems the logical place to start the story.

You can also consider other consequences for his potential slip to mental instability. Say, if he had a wife and children they may have left when it became apparent he was obsessed with what he had read. You may even weave into the narrative how the relationship had been strained for some time and his recent obsession was the final straw. Considering the circumstances surrounding the End of Everything, the main character may even harbour deep, unrelenting guilt over losing his wife/family as a survivor, which may manifest itself in ways that could suggest he really is crazy or losing his hold on sanity.

I originally leaned towards this route (hence the half-baked psychiatric commitment idea) but I am now leaning towards writing him in first person instead of 3rd and I don't want a point of view that has lost his mind holding the conversation with the audience. By the same token, if he had such close family / friends, it would likely be more true to his personality to kidnap them at gunpoint than to leave them at the mercy of the apocalypse. An ends justifies the means, in the main character's opinion, is valid depending on the stakes. A view that will come up every time he encounters a conflict he cannot easily overcome in a purely 'morally white' choice.

I do not want the first introduction of the main character to be that of a loon abducting his family at gunpoint. That, combined with the point of view issue, is what caused me to switch to the 'Lock him up in a psychiatric ward' option.

That said, perhaps I should re-consider it. Especially since I'm leaning strongly towards starting at a point a few minutes before 'Day 1'. They could be kept in a basement and get to watch the 'miracle' of the plants growing rapidly through a CCTV while being kept captive. Although, this would likely complicate the narrative since it might take more than a few minutes of video of 'the impossible' to convince them. That, and it will complicate his social situation. (e.g. If he massacres a group of guys producing Meth in a place nearby because they got someone's son addicted to it, how would his family react?)

Originally, I was planning for the moral foil (What the fuck man? You just killed people for producing meth?) to be the priest since he was probably better suited than his wife.

[CaptainChewbacca]

If he was involuntarily committed, the most they can generally do in the US is a 72-hour hold. During that time he might talk to the doctors, who would conclude he's a 'harmless nutjob'. Its not illegal to believe the world is coming to an end, as long as you're safe about it.

[HMS Sophia]

Would nuclear plants really explode? In a non nuclear sense obviously, but...
If a plant loses power the containment rods drop into the reactor, stifling the reaction and essentially turning the plant into a building that does nothing. I don't think an explosion is the next thing that happens.

Also, the animals going feral, hunting in packs and such. I think it happens too quickly.

Also, the army wouldn't be foraging by day 15. I'm pretty sure their bases have very large supplies of both tinned food and MRE's, which can both supply their men and be distributed for civilians.

People will not starve in a month. There is enough tinned and packaged food around to keep people going for a while

Okay, my main thing other than the nuclear plant is that things are happening far too quickly. Extend the time period a bit, and it's all very believable, but you are not going to get bases as kingdoms in a month. It's more likely they will function as disconnected elements of the armed forces, protecting the local populations, trying to organise society back to a more capable level.

[Darth Tanner]

Would nuclear plants really explode? In a non nuclear sense obviously, but...

I believe there was a previous RAR where it was argued that although the reactors themselves can be left to shutdown fine the cooling ponds for spent fuel will overheat and ignite without manual control.

People will not starve in a month.

I believe a healthy adult can actually last two or three weeks without any food anyway. Not to mention the vast majority of homes have at least some canned food goods. I could probably last a couple of months just on what I have in the cupboards now never mind if there’s an Armageddon situation and I go empty the supermarket shelves/can eat my dead neighbour’s food stocks.

The heavy weapons of the military are not brought to bear on the Enemy due to the Two Natured's virtual immunity to localized infantry weapons.

What about heavy weapons, the army is not going to be shy about breaking out heavy machine guns and even cannons once the shits hit the fan. And if these zombie things have no weapons of their own what stopping the surviving military/police running them down in armoured cars?

Extensive power outages as power plant workers refuse to go to work as they try to save their families.

I’ve never really liked this depiction of Armageddon. From what we have seen of other disasters, including Fukushima professionals can be relied on to stand at their posts, even when their putting their lives at risk to do that. Not to mention there are doubtlessly military plans to take over their operation if needed.

stockpiling them in the structure's cool basement.

Your not going to store much in terms of crops in just a basement. What level of tools is available because if he is doing this by hand it’s going to take a rather bit longer to harvest all the crops, and otherwise how is he going to fuel his machinery in the long term?

Otherwise as has been said your plot is developing a bit rapidly, especially with how quickly supplies are depleted. For example I doubt you could even evacuate the cities in the amount of time you stated let alone have them evacuate then start returning to scavenge within 3 days.

Hungry pets exhaust the city food supply and spread into the countryside.

This is rather bizarre, how are pets opening tins/storage cupboards?

[Raw Shark]

I do not want the first introduction of the main character to be that of a loon abducting his family at gunpoint.

Why not? If he initially comes off like a total whackjob to the reader, and then turns out to be more-or-less right, it introduces complexity to the narrative, including the question of, "How right is he?" rather than just setting him up as the lily-white Protagonist.

[kaeneth]

If he was involuntarily committed, the most they can generally do in the US is a 72-hour hold. During that time he might talk to the doctors, who would conclude he's a 'harmless nutjob'. Its not illegal to believe the world is coming to an end, as long as you're safe about it.

Awesome, Chewbacca, thanks.

I do not want the first introduction of the main character to be that of a loon abducting his family at gunpoint.

Why not? If he initially comes off like a total whackjob to the reader, and then turns out to be more-or-less right, it introduces complexity to the narrative, including the question of, "How right is he?"

I suppose the second part is true. I was worried it would lose people very quickly (e.g. WTF? Eh, why bother reading this...) since I tend to avoid stories with narrators I perceive as crazy.

For instance, I read the Sword of Truth series.

I think the Objectivism, is at best, delusional thinking.

Why? Because by the time I realised the Author pushing Objectivism I like the rest of the story to not care too much.

If he had stamped the first chapter with something I considered delusional, I would have never read past it.

rather than just setting him up as the lily-white Protagonist.

Well, I'm sure half of the people (perhaps more) will see him as one of the Villains before I'm done with him, so I figured putting him in the majority racially avoided the 'You are attacking minority X' problem.

How many people are going to think indiscriminate, premeditated murder in response to someone running a Meth lab is a 'morally valid' choice?

So the only thing 'white' about him is his skin color...

Would nuclear plants really explode? In a non nuclear sense obviously, but...

I believe there was a previous RAR where it was argued that although the reactors themselves can be left to shutdown fine the cooling ponds for spent fuel will overheat and ignite without manual control.

I got my information elsewhere but the back assumption was the system will fail after a few days without the use of the power plant personnel. Whether that actually will lead to explosions and radioactive fallout...I've seen different answers so I went with the one that was more dramatic.

People will not starve in a month.

I believe a healthy adult can actually last two or three weeks without any food anyway. Not to mention the vast majority of homes have at least some canned food goods. I could probably last a couple of months just on what I have in the cupboards now never mind if there’s an Armageddon situation and I go empty the supermarket shelves/can eat my dead neighbour’s food stocks.

I'll re-write the timeline then. Just realize, all the food inside the city would be basically gone...I doubt even canned goods can last a decade's worth of bacteria growth overnight and be edible. I know mine usually are labeled as 'good' only for 2-3 years.

The heavy weapons of the military are not brought to bear on the Enemy due to the Two Natured's virtual immunity to localized infantry weapons.

What about heavy weapons, the army is not going to be shy about breaking out heavy machine guns and even cannons once the shits hit the fan. And if these zombie things have no weapons of their own what stopping the surviving military/police running them down in armoured cars?

They aren't zombies. They are weres. So, yes, those are all options. That sentence was probably stupidly written on my part. It was more 'Weres start slaughtering the troops in the barracks, therefore the troops had trouble bringing heavy weapons to bear because they probably only had infantry weapons in the barracks. By that point, the military had suffered such massive losses as to require re-organization of units in order to put the people together to operate a tank or an artillery piece...'

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that wouldn't trigger the complete collapse of the military as a viable fighting force when you have 4 weres per 100 soldiers (aprox.), if each of them get 10 guys before going down...you just lost 44% of your armed forces before they could physically get to the tanks/artillery/helicopters/airforce/etc. (e.g. I don't think those in the barracks would do so well...)

Extensive power outages as power plant workers refuse to go to work as they try to save their families.

I’ve never really liked this depiction of Armageddon. From what we have seen of other disasters, including Fukushima professionals can be relied on to stand at their posts, even when their putting their lives at risk to do that. Not to mention there are doubtlessly military plans to take over their operation if needed.

Do you honestly think if some sort of truly monstrous, inhuman creature was stalking the power plant (I don't know any with less than 25 people per shift which means odds are close to 100% of you getting a were in each plant...) slaughtering the power plant workers, would you honestly expect people to stay?

There is a difference between the intellectual understanding of 'death might/will come' and 'SOMETHING JUST GRABBED BILLY AND I CAN HEAR HIM SCREAMING AS IT EATS HIM ALIVE! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK!'.

I think very few people have the intestinal fortitude to stay. Especially when the military, etc. probably won't make it to you for a couple hours as they've just suffered the worst losses (as an institution) in a single day, ever.

stockpiling them in the structure's cool basement.

Your not going to store much in terms of crops in just a basement. What level of tools is available because if he is doing this by hand it’s going to take a rather bit longer to harvest all the crops, and otherwise how is he going to fuel his machinery in the long term?

Honestly, he is probably harvesting during the entire Armageddon....as time allows...and stockpiling 500+ gallons of gas to keep modern tools viable for a couple years? Probably in his 'ZOMG WORLD ENDING' budget. I think humans are adaptable enough that a certain level of civilisation would resume in a year, two at the most. The main differences being the population change....plus the central authority (nation-level governments) have lost all credibility and physical authority (the ability to projected armed force).

Otherwise as has been said your plot is developing a bit rapidly, especially with how quickly supplies are depleted. For example I doubt you could even evacuate the cities in the amount of time you stated let alone have them evacuate then start returning to scavenge within 3 days.

I'll spread it out...would 3 months+2 days instead of 3 weeks+2 days be better?

Hungry pets exhaust the city food supply and spread into the countryside.

This is rather bizarre, how are pets opening tins/storage cupboards?

They don't. They exhaust everything they can get to (rodents, corpses) easily enough to not-starve.

[Mr Bean]

kaeneth if you want to play it like this guy is intelligent then have a dramatic shift from the first lets say month where he's panicky and running around only 11 months left with it culminating in him in a 72 hour hold then have him switch focuses wake up to the fact that the worlds going to end and he can't be trapped in a funny farm when it does if he wants to survive, this is also where you can switch a focus of him being much more deliberate.

Everyone facing the end panics to some extent, that lets you split the narrative between what people do right before a big hurricane (Like saying loading up on perishable foods when the powers about to go out) and someone who has a lot of time (72 hours to be exact) to do nothing but think.

Random Idea:Have him give a cover story after the involuntary hold, perhaps he can say he's part of some new age get back to earth movement which sounds a lot more sane than "the world is ending I need my beans and my guns"

Random Idea:Have him take a vacation to somewhere nice about a month before the apocalypse happens, somewhere he's always wanted to go, that can present several interesting story line potentials if he's got most everything wrapped up and switches to outright illegal actions in the last five or six weeks. He could be committing massive fraud (Say taking out loans in his name and his family's names knowing he has to only make a single payment before the shit hits the fan) and at some point he realises he's got a bit of money left over so he goes to wherever for a real nice vacation in a wonderful place contrasting with what he thinks is coming

[kaeneth]

kaeneth if you want to play it like this guy is intelligent then have a dramatic shift from the first lets say month where he's panicky and running around only 11 months left with it culminating in him in a 72 hour hold then have him switch focuses wake up to the fact that the worlds going to end and he can't be trapped in a funny farm when it does if he wants to survive, this is also where you can switch a focus of him being much more deliberate.

I was planning for him to be no higher than the high end of the middle 68% on an IQ chart. So he is, at best, slightly smarter than average. That would be the best place for the mental transition from 'Panicking and trying to convince everyone its coming' to 'Fuck, I need to save myself and hope I can help others.'

Everyone facing the end panics to some extent, that lets you split the narrative between what people do right before a big hurricane (Like saying loading up on perishable foods when the powers about to go out) and someone who has a lot of time (72 hours to be exact) to do nothing but think.

That will probably be mostly anecdotal since he'll be the only point of view I have planned.

Random Idea:Have him give a cover story after the involuntary hold, perhaps he can say he's part of some new age get back to earth movement which sounds a lot more sane than "the world is ending I need my beans and my guns"

True. I was neglecting that simply because he was going to move and he'd basically ended his personal relationships when he was put in the involuntary hold. But if you were stuck in a room for 72 hours, you'd probably be able to come up with a plausible one. xD

Random Idea:Have him take a vacation to somewhere nice about a month before the apocalypse happens, somewhere he's always wanted to go, that can present several interesting story line potentials if he's got most everything wrapped up and switches to outright illegal actions in the last five or six weeks. He could be committing massive fraud (Say taking out loans in his name and his family's names knowing he has to only make a single payment before the shit hits the fan) and at some point he realises he's got a bit of money left over so he goes to wherever for a real nice vacation in a wonderful place contrasting with what he thinks is coming

Hmmm...that might be a good idea but I'm still thinking starting at the start of the long term conflict (How to survive the Apocalypse) rather than other things might be more fun with the reader, filling in the critical details via narration and flashbacks. Of course, I could introduce a love interest or something relevant to the plot via a vacation too...

I think I'll see where I am when I re-write the chain of events and come up with the full plot. Right now, I was really only planning for all of this to cover the first 6 or so chapters to setup the character, setting, etc.

[Darth Holbytlan]

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that wouldn't trigger the complete collapse of the military as a viable fighting force when you have 4 weres per 100 soldiers (aprox.), if each of them get 10 guys before going down...you just lost 44% of your armed forces before they could physically get to the tanks/artillery/helicopters/airforce/etc. (e.g. I don't think those in the barracks would do so well...)

Do you honestly think if some sort of truly monstrous, inhuman creature was stalking the power plant (I don't know any with less than 25 people per shift which means odds are close to 100% of you getting a were in each plant...) slaughtering the power plant workers, would you honestly expect people to stay?

Technical point: At 4% of people becoming weres, a random set of 25 people has a .96^25=.36 (36%) chance of having no weres at all. Even doubling that to 50 people still leaves a .96^50=13% chance of no weres.

The general formula is probability of at least one were in a group is 1 - (1-r)N, where r is the probability of a person being a were and N is the number of people in the group.

[kaeneth]

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that wouldn't trigger the complete collapse of the military as a viable fighting force when you have 4 weres per 100 soldiers (aprox.), if each of them get 10 guys before going down...you just lost 44% of your armed forces before they could physically get to the tanks/artillery/helicopters/airforce/etc. (e.g. I don't think those in the barracks would do so well...)

Do you honestly think if some sort of truly monstrous, inhuman creature was stalking the power plant (I don't know any with less than 25 people per shift which means odds are close to 100% of you getting a were in each plant...) slaughtering the power plant workers, would you honestly expect people to stay?

Technical point: At 4% of people becoming weres, a random set of 25 people has a .96^25=.36 (36%) chance of having no weres at all. Even doubling that to 50 people still leaves a .96^50=13% chance of no weres.

The general formula is probability of at least one were in a group is 1 - (1-r)N, where r is the probability of a person being a were and N is the number of people in the group.

Ah. Another detail I fucked up.

I'll have to change the percentages and/or figure out the point at which the power grid fails.

Thanks!

[Simon_Jester]

Would nuclear plants really explode? In a non nuclear sense obviously, but...

I believe there was a previous RAR where it was argued that although the reactors themselves can be left to shutdown fine the cooling ponds for spent fuel will overheat and ignite without manual control.

People will not starve in a month.

I believe a healthy adult can actually last two or three weeks without any food anyway. Not to mention the vast majority of homes have at least some canned food goods. I could probably last a couple of months just on what I have in the cupboards now never mind if there’s an Armageddon situation and I go empty the supermarket shelves/can eat my dead neighbour’s food stocks.

There's starve to death and then there's starve. If you haven't eaten in several days, you may be alive, but you're weak as hell, vulnerable to infections (which, I gather, are unusually common), and vulnerable to attack (likewise common). People may be dying of other things in larger numbers because of starvation.

The heavy weapons of the military are not brought to bear on the Enemy due to the Two Natured's virtual immunity to localized infantry weapons.

What about heavy weapons, the army is not going to be shy about breaking out heavy machine guns and even cannons once the shits hit the fan. And if these zombie things have no weapons of their own what stopping the surviving military/police running them down in armoured cars?

They're feral and homicidally aggressive but not totally mindless, so they may try to avoid being hunted down easily. Think werewolves, not zombies.

Also, I think what he means is that military mobilization is disrupted by having shitloads of these things appearing on army bases and whatnot. Sure, a bunch of guys with a Humvee and a .50 cal can chew them up, but if they're getting the shit mauled out of them on the barracks, if they're busy immediately protecting their own lives, and if unit headquarters are attacked along with everything else, they won't be responding as effectively to the general attack.

This is sort of a Werewolf Pearl Harbor, in that sense.

Extensive power outages as power plant workers refuse to go to work as they try to save their families.

I’ve never really liked this depiction of Armageddon. From what we have seen of other disasters, including Fukushima professionals can be relied on to stand at their posts, even when their putting their lives at risk to do that. Not to mention there are doubtlessly military plans to take over their operation if needed.

Ditto.

Otherwise as has been said your plot is developing a bit rapidly, especially with how quickly supplies are depleted. For example I doubt you could even evacuate the cities in the amount of time you stated let alone have them evacuate then start returning to scavenge within 3 days.

Yeah, this is significant- it's not so much that the timeline is totally unreasonable as that it's all happening too fast, with a few too many contrivances to make civilization collapse extra-quickly.

Also, a side note, why does he keep capitalizing Human...?

I got my information elsewhere but the back assumption was the system will fail after a few days without the use of the power plant personnel. Whether that actually will lead to explosions and radioactive fallout...I've seen different answers so I went with the one that was more dramatic.

Thing is, the plant personnel know this, and are quite likely to "stand and be still to the Birkenhead drill," if you're familiar with that metaphor. They'll take big risks to avert disaster, we know this from cases like Chernobyl and Fukushima.

I'll re-write the timeline then. Just realize, all the food inside the city would be basically gone...I doubt even canned goods can last a decade's worth of bacteria growth overnight and be edible. I know mine usually are labeled as 'good' only for 2-3 years.

Yeah, that's what'll really screw with food supplies. Although there isn't a lot of organic life on the planet that could survive such a thing- bacteria in your own body would be replicating vastly faster than your immune system could kill them. How would that be handled?

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that wouldn't trigger the complete collapse of the military as a viable fighting force when you have 4 weres per 100 soldiers (aprox.), if each of them get 10 guys before going down...you just lost 44% of your armed forces before they could physically get to the tanks/artillery/helicopters/airforce/etc. (e.g. I don't think those in the barracks would do so well...)

That ratio of 10:1 isn't going to be uniform or universal. And it'll be lower in places where you've got armed, prepared soldiers- if you can kill them with heavy weapons, with blast and shrapnel, it's not like they're going to be totally fucking immune to having massive amounts of 5.56mm ammo dumped into them.

If the death rate is 10:1 among troops attacked unprepared by werewolves, it's going to be fucking horrific among civilians, to the point where there'd be no one left alive on Earth because they'd kill like 100 people each.

That said, your basic point stands- the werewolves appearing on military bases create a lot of disruption and chaos. The headquarters that should be ordering the regiment to move out winds up being too busy trying to defend itself against the creature that just ripped Colonel Jim's lungs out, and so on. This is not a common factor in the... call it the milgeek version of the zombie apocalypse, where we just assume a smooth military mobilization that allows heavy weapons to be brought to bear at will.

Do you honestly think if some sort of truly monstrous, inhuman creature was stalking the power plant (I don't know any with less than 25 people per shift which means odds are close to 100% of you getting a were in each plant...) slaughtering the power plant workers, would you honestly expect people to stay?

There is a difference between the intellectual understanding of 'death might/will come' and 'SOMETHING JUST GRABBED BILLY AND I CAN HEAR HIM SCREAMING AS IT EATS HIM ALIVE! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK!'.

Yeah, but they'll come back with guns and shit later on.

The plant machinery will run unattended for some time, although you'll see a lot of industrial accidents because of this.

One thing to remember is that while the military is getting the shit ripped out of it, and so are the plant workers, there is a fair amount of contingency planning going on. If there's any semblance of military discipline at all left, any chain of command, some of those contingencies are getting dusted off... and they include shit like "what if everyone is getting nuked?" This is honestly less bad than that.

Plus, what matters is that a lot of the equipment is still there, and in places will be brought back into operation at relatively low levels. People are dead, infrastructure is busted to hell and gone, but a lot of heavy machinery is just fine if someone can get to it.

This makes a big difference compared to many apocalyptic scenarios, which feature big destructive wars.

[kaeneth]

Would nuclear plants really explode? In a non nuclear sense obviously, but...

I believe there was a previous RAR where it was argued that although the reactors themselves can be left to shutdown fine the cooling ponds for spent fuel will overheat and ignite without manual control.

People will not starve in a month.

I believe a healthy adult can actually last two or three weeks without any food anyway. Not to mention the vast majority of homes have at least some canned food goods. I could probably last a couple of months just on what I have in the cupboards now never mind if there’s an Armageddon situation and I go empty the supermarket shelves/can eat my dead neighbour’s food stocks.

There's starve to death and then there's starve. If you haven't eaten in several days, you may be alive, but you're weak as hell, vulnerable to infections (which, I gather, are unusually common), and vulnerable to attack (likewise common). People may be dying of other things in larger numbers because of starvation.

The heavy weapons of the military are not brought to bear on the Enemy due to the Two Natured's virtual immunity to localized infantry weapons.

What about heavy weapons, the army is not going to be shy about breaking out heavy machine guns and even cannons once the shits hit the fan. And if these zombie things have no weapons of their own what stopping the surviving military/police running them down in armoured cars?

They're feral and homicidally aggressive but not totally mindless, so they may try to avoid being hunted down easily. Think werewolves, not zombies.

Also, I think what he means is that military mobilization is disrupted by having shitloads of these things appearing on army bases and whatnot. Sure, a bunch of guys with a Humvee and a .50 cal can chew them up, but if they're getting the shit mauled out of them on the barracks, if they're busy immediately protecting their own lives, and if unit headquarters are attacked along with everything else, they won't be responding as effectively to the general attack.

This is sort of a Werewolf Pearl Harbor, in that sense.

Correct. The main problem I've always had with a zombie apocalypse is a .50 cal can tear apart a helluva alot of zombies. So can incendiaries, etc. I just don't see 'RAWR ZOMBIES' being an effective Armageddon unless it cripples Humanity's ability to project physical force (military, militia, police) to the point containment is impossible.

Extensive power outages as power plant workers refuse to go to work as they try to save their families.

I’ve never really liked this depiction of Armageddon. From what we have seen of other disasters, including Fukushima professionals can be relied on to stand at their posts, even when their putting their lives at risk to do that. Not to mention there are doubtlessly military plans to take over their operation if needed.

Ditto.

Otherwise as has been said your plot is developing a bit rapidly, especially with how quickly supplies are depleted. For example I doubt you could even evacuate the cities in the amount of time you stated let alone have them evacuate then start returning to scavenge within 3 days.

Yeah, this is significant- it's not so much that the timeline is totally unreasonable as that it's all happening too fast, with a few too many contrivances to make civilization collapse extra-quickly.

Also, a side note, why does he keep capitalizing Human...?

I'm odd and capitalise all the races.

Like I said, I probably need to stretch the timeline out to 3 months instead of 3 weeks.

I got my information elsewhere but the back assumption was the system will fail after a few days without the use of the power plant personnel. Whether that actually will lead to explosions and radioactive fallout...I've seen different answers so I went with the one that was more dramatic.

Thing is, the plant personnel know this, and are quite likely to "stand and be still to the Birkenhead drill," if you're familiar with that metaphor. They'll take big risks to avert disaster, we know this from cases like Chernobyl and Fukushima.

I believe they will....assuming nothing is tearing through them one by one where they can here their co-workers screaming as they are being eaten alive.

I'll re-write the timeline then. Just realize, all the food inside the city would be basically gone...I doubt even canned goods can last a decade's worth of bacteria growth overnight and be edible. I know mine usually are labeled as 'good' only for 2-3 years.

Yeah, that's what'll really screw with food supplies. Although there isn't a lot of organic life on the planet that could survive such a thing- bacteria in your own body would be replicating vastly faster than your immune system could kill them. How would that be handled?

I debated about simply aging Humanity the same amount. (e.g. The human body, not the mind, experiences those same 10 years....so generally healthy people will survive, anyone who is sick enough to 'die' without medication is going to be dead)

However, I leaned towards 'Human bodies and their contents receive blanket immunity' when I wrote the timeline.

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that wouldn't trigger the complete collapse of the military as a viable fighting force when you have 4 weres per 100 soldiers (aprox.), if each of them get 10 guys before going down...you just lost 44% of your armed forces before they could physically get to the tanks/artillery/helicopters/airforce/etc. (e.g. I don't think those in the barracks would do so well...)

That ratio of 10:1 isn't going to be uniform or universal. And it'll be lower in places where you've got armed, prepared soldiers- if you can kill them with heavy weapons, with blast and shrapnel, it's not like they're going to be totally fucking immune to having massive amounts of 5.56mm ammo dumped into them.

If the death rate is 10:1 among troops attacked unprepared by werewolves, it's going to be fucking horrific among civilians, to the point where there'd be no one left alive on Earth because they'd kill like 100 people each.

That said, your basic point stands- the werewolves appearing on military bases create a lot of disruption and chaos. The headquarters that should be ordering the regiment to move out winds up being too busy trying to defend itself against the creature that just ripped Colonel Jim's lungs out, and so on. This is not a common factor in the... call it the milgeek version of the zombie apocalypse, where we just assume a smooth military mobilization that allows heavy weapons to be brought to bear at will.

The only reason I was thinking i could get away with it was simply people sleeping in houses aren't going to be dragged out of their homes. Its more 'Anyone awake during the full moon and outdoors/in a building with a werewofl' is slaughtered. Most people, at night, are indoors and relatively safe since only 4% of households will be affected.

Military bases are basically giant complexes that are open 24/7 with people moving about, guards patrolling, and so on. Instead of the werewolf running out into the dark of the night once he is done, he has fresh targets that are trying to hurt him.

In other words, I'm thinking the Twonatured/Were- pattern is roughly this:
Kill someone, eat them, be full.
Hunt people if convenient because its fun! (Figuring out how to enter a structure is not 'fun' because the Were doesn't understand its own strength and that it can knock down doors/windows easily)
Exterminate any threat. (Being attacked from a machine gun nest? CHARGE THE FUCKERS BECAUSE I AM INVINCIBLE)

Do you honestly think if some sort of truly monstrous, inhuman creature was stalking the power plant (I don't know any with less than 25 people per shift which means odds are close to 100% of you getting a were in each plant...) slaughtering the power plant workers, would you honestly expect people to stay?

There is a difference between the intellectual understanding of 'death might/will come' and 'SOMETHING JUST GRABBED BILLY AND I CAN HEAR HIM SCREAMING AS IT EATS HIM ALIVE! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK!'.

Yeah, but they'll come back with guns and shit later on.

The plant machinery will run unattended for some time, although you'll see a lot of industrial accidents because of this.

True. And with electrical power and refrigeration...the food problem becomes solvable again. They can't do it with just gas...but if everyone has a working fridge, I suspect its possible to move enough food that the survivors are kept from starving to death.

One thing to remember is that while the military is getting the shit ripped out of it, and so are the plant workers, there is a fair amount of contingency planning going on. If there's any semblance of military discipline at all left, any chain of command, some of those contingencies are getting dusted off... and they include shit like "what if everyone is getting nuked?" This is honestly less bad than that.

Plus, what matters is that a lot of the equipment is still there, and in places will be brought back into operation at relatively low levels. People are dead, infrastructure is busted to hell and gone, but a lot of heavy machinery is just fine if someone can get to it.

This makes a big difference compared to many apocalyptic scenarios, which feature big destructive wars.

So, it sounds like, I need some way to annihilate (or more thoroughly cripple) the heavy machinery, human industry, and power. Otherwise, enough of the system will remain functional that society could repair rather than collapse. Bleh.

[Darth Tanner]

Like I said, I probably need to stretch the timeline out to 3 months instead of 3 weeks.

For the complete collapse and the start of warlord states based around military bases I'd think expanding to three years might be more realistic.

I believe they will....assuming nothing is tearing through them one by one where they can here their co-workers screaming as they are being eaten alive.

Remember Nuclear power plants are quite well secured with lots of armed guards and security fences/doors.

I debated about simply aging Humanity the same amount.

10 years of sudden ageing would probably kill you regardless of your health, at the rate cells replicate and die you'd probably exhaust your reserves in seconds. If not your bacteria would eat you alive!

Military bases are basically giant complexes that are open 24/7 with people moving about, guards patrolling, and so on. Instead of the werewolf running out into the dark of the night once he is done, he has fresh targets that are trying to hurt him.

But there will also be more people to raise the alarm and secure the facility against attack. Most homes won't know anythings wrong until the werewolf breaks in and eats them whereas the military will atleast be able to put up a fight.

So, it sounds like, I need some way to annihilate (or more thoroughly cripple) the heavy machinery, human industry, and power. Otherwise, enough of the system will remain functional that society could repair rather than collapse. Bleh.

If your having a sudden ten years of growth overnight you could have it affect machinery through rust or maybe just have fungal growth on the electrics? A tank suddenly grinding to a halt as it rusts out before your eyes or a pilot screaming in panic as his jet disintegrates around him midflight. If you want to cripple human civilization you need someway to take out the hardware. The problem with that though is why would the tools the heroe has be immune to it. Also having things like metal suddenly rust away would also cause mass death from building collapse.

[kaeneth]

Like I said, I probably need to stretch the timeline out to 3 months instead of 3 weeks.

For the complete collapse and the start of warlord states based around military bases I'd think expanding to three years might be more realistic.

Even if I go with your rust idea that takes out the hardware virtually world wide? I'd think it'd collapse civilisation faster than 3 years. But I'll keep that in mind when I work out the new timeline.

I believe they will....assuming nothing is tearing through them one by one where they can here their co-workers screaming as they are being eaten alive.

Remember Nuclear power plants are quite well secured with lots of armed guards and security fences/doors.

True. But armed guards with what exactly? I was always under the impression it was little more than police armaments. (e.g. handguns, tazers, mace, batons)

At which point, it will take alot of those guys to take down something with supernaturally quick regenerative powers. Your basically limited to either overwhelming regeneration via massed firepower (modern heavy weapons, a dozen guys with automatic weapons) or getting lucky. (e.g. putting enough holes in the Two Natured's head to kill it near-instantly)

I debated about simply aging Humanity the same amount.

10 years of sudden ageing would probably kill you regardless of your health, at the rate cells replicate and die you'd probably exhaust your reserves in seconds. If not your bacteria would eat you alive!

10 years of sudden aging as in 10 years of the natural lifecycle of your body, overnight. The plants are growing, the trees are growing, the bacteria are growing on the dead food. Basically, anything 'alive' gets hit with a 10 year growth spurt, more for things like Trees because 'Magic's Return' was not entirely unanticipated and/or unguided. (e.g. The book the main character finds exists for a reason and is thousands of years old. The only reason he can read it is the fact it fucks with his head. The only reason he believes the apocalypse is coming is also from said book fucking with his head.)

Military bases are basically giant complexes that are open 24/7 with people moving about, guards patrolling, and so on. Instead of the werewolf running out into the dark of the night once he is done, he has fresh targets that are trying to hurt him.

But there will also be more people to raise the alarm and secure the facility against attack. Most homes won't know anythings wrong until the werewolf breaks in and eats them whereas the military will atleast be able to put up a fight.

Yep. Of course if we take away alot modern weaponry via your rust idea...

So, it sounds like, I need some way to annihilate (or more thoroughly cripple) the heavy machinery, human industry, and power. Otherwise, enough of the system will remain functional that society could repair rather than collapse. Bleh.

If your having a sudden ten years of growth overnight you could have it affect machinery through rust or maybe just have fungal growth on the electrics? A tank suddenly grinding to a halt as it rusts out before your eyes or a pilot screaming in panic as his jet disintegrates around him midflight. If you want to cripple human civilization you need someway to take out the hardware. The problem with that though is why would the tools the heroe has be immune to it. Also having things like metal suddenly rust away would also cause mass death from building collapse.

I kinda feel stupid I didn't consider this before.

Jet fuel and gasoline can go bad in less than 10 years after refinement. I bet 10 year old gasoline and jet fuel will have a nasty, nasty effect on engines. And it will take time to refine and ship it. It takes out the military's heavy weaponry (almost completely) for the first couple of days for most of the world. There must be other critical biological and biologically derived components that can go bad in 10 years...I wonder what they are.

Just fyi, the main character isn't a hero (he probably qualifies as an anti-villain or an anti-hero).

[HMS Sophia]

One thing about the ten year thing... I think a lot of the medium-heavyish weapons would survive. A big bunch of small arms would. An M2 might, an Ak-47 will.

[Simon_Jester]

I'm odd and capitalise all the races.

This is neither grammatical nor sensible.

I believe they will....assuming nothing is tearing through them one by one where they can here their co-workers screaming as they are being eaten alive.

See below.

I debated about simply aging Humanity the same amount. (e.g. The human body, not the mind, experiences those same 10 years....so generally healthy people will survive, anyone who is sick enough to 'die' without medication is going to be dead)

However, I leaned towards 'Human bodies and their contents receive blanket immunity' when I wrote the timeline.

And so do animals and plants (so that you don't have trees dying of parasites)... but processed food doesn't. What about wooden buildings?

The only reason I was thinking i could get away with it was simply people sleeping in houses aren't going to be dragged out of their homes. Its more 'Anyone awake during the full moon and outdoors/in a building with a werewofl' is slaughtered. Most people, at night, are indoors and relatively safe since only 4% of households will be affected.

More like sixteen- the average household contains more than one person. Also, do werewolves have zero ability to enter buildings? And if they're "feral," why do they seek to kill as many people as possible? They eat what they kill, how are they not full after eating a few people? Wouldn't they just kill people who come into sight as a perceived threat but then withdraw to a den and snarl rather than going to look for more people to kill?

And why wouldn't a predator smash apart a lightly built structure to get at meat or entertainment? It's not like real life bears hesitate to do that, breaking into trailers to find food.

Military bases are basically giant complexes that are open 24/7 with people moving about, guards patrolling, and so on. Instead of the werewolf running out into the dark of the night once he is done, he has fresh targets that are trying to hurt him.

Yes, but they will also be surprisingly successful at hurting him. It doesn't take that many minutes to get to a base armory in a lot of places, and again, if they're physically able to be killed by .50 caliber bullets, then dumping whole magazines of small arms fire into them is gonna hurt.

So, it sounds like, I need some way to annihilate (or more thoroughly cripple) the heavy machinery, human industry, and power. Otherwise, enough of the system will remain functional that society could repair rather than collapse. Bleh.

It depends on what you mean by "collapse." Between the massive crop failures and the physical disruption of infrastructure (road surfaces turning into virgin forests overnight), and the sheer lack of manpower to work things, yeah, you'll get a lot of 'collapse.' But the post-apocalyptic society won't be simple "new Iron Age." It'll feature a lot of cases of people who know how industrial technology works trying to use limited amounts of it to keep themselves alive, with a great deal of complicated hodge podge. On the other hand, things like draft animals aren't available, unlike the real Iron Age.

Even if I go with your rust idea that takes out the hardware virtually world wide? I'd think it'd collapse civilisation faster than 3 years. But I'll keep that in mind when I work out the new timeline.

There are multiple definitions of "collapse." It doesn't take long after a disaster to get crowds of starving people. It takes months for the immediate dislocations to start settling down. It takes years for any individual 'warlord states' that may spring up to actually last long enough and grow large enough that you can start thinking of them as successor governments.

Yep. Of course if we take away alot modern weaponry via your rust idea...

Everyone is eaten by werewolves by Day 3. The end.

You have to strike a balance.