Game of Thrones Season 4 Discussion (TV Spoilers Only)

[Iroscato]

Also: Mance wasn't exaggerating; that was one big goddamn fire.

[Scrib]

Yes and no. Sure, the Wildling army is ridiculously huge, but (as we saw in the last episode) it's undisciplined and very unwieldy. Mance's bit can't have taken more than a couple hundred casualties plus the giants before giving up; they don't have a really solid esprit de corps. They may actually be more vulnerable in an army than as small bands of raiders, because somebody - the Boltons, say, or maybe those mercenaries Stannis just hired - could hit them with organized, battle-hardened heavy infantry and smash them against the Wall, even if they manage to overrun the Night's Watch first.

After the largest Wildling army ever is conclusively defeated, I think it'd be easier to get the survivors to bend the knee. Particularly if you make the charismatic ones lords, or set up some kind of autonomous arrangement so they can keep their customs.

They cannot keep their customs because their customs are explicitly that they pick their own kings. Putting aside the crazy stuff like eating people for a moment of course.

I'm not denying that they are undisciplined. Note that not a single argument of mine relies on a unified wildling fighting force.

[Esquire]

I'll rephrase. I think that after the Wildling army - the greatest army ever, which they take a justifiably great deal of pride in - obliterated by superior Westerosi tactics and equipment, it'll be easier to get the survivors to "convert," if I may be allowed the word. That sort of thing is fairly common in history; witness the last years of the Danelaw, Mohammed's Islamic empire, and pre-Renaissance Christianity, among others.

I'm not saying it'd be easy, or even straightforward - far from it! As you point out there's hundreds of thousands of Wildlings, probably, and that's way too large a group to be held down by brute force. It'd take a careful mix of showmanship, to play up their initial defeat, and a watchful eye, to stamp out any motion towards independence before it became general. Fortunately, Roose Bolton is the current Warden of the North and that's the sort of thing his family goes in for.

I suspect, moreover, that the most dangerous Wildling tribes would be the least trouble to civilize. The Thenns are so scary precisely because they have their own lords and feudal system, and except for the cannibalism could be trivially folded into the Northern social structure. The Thenns, and groups like them, could probably be used to hold down the other Wildlings, in a divide-and-conquer sort of strategy. Again, I don't say it would be easy, just not outright mad to try.

[Napoleon the Clown]

I suspect the Wildlings would be, for the most part, perfectly content to live south of the Wall among the people living there now. The issue is, King's Landing would want to collect taxes from them and recruit them into its army when needed. They'd want obedience and fealty. The Wildlings, I suspect, would be less than pleased with Such arrangements. If they were allowed to just go about their business and not need to pay taxes to some "soft" king way in the hell south of them and not have to worry about getting conscripted for some bullshit war they couldn't care less about even in death? They'd probably be very happy to live in an area that's a little more hospitable and has more things to do than fuck, fight, and get eaten by ice zombies.


While watching it, I commented to my wife that anybody who was paying attention to last week's episode would be thinking Sam was fucked, given his comment to Gilly about how he wasn't going to die. Thankfully for Samwiseell GamgeeTarly he's Frodo'sJon's harmless-looking (but secretly quite the badass, when it really counts) friend. GRRM does follow some degree of the narrative rules, and Sam's character archetype is the kind that lives through the craziest shit as a combination of dumb luck and surprising reserves of courage.

[GuppyShark]

Ceasar could tame the barbarian horde and put them to work as good civilised folk.

Unfortunately, he's leading it.

[TheHammer]

I suspect the Wildlings would be, for the most part, perfectly content to live south of the Wall among the people living there now. The issue is, King's Landing would want to collect taxes from them and recruit them into its army when needed. They'd want obedience and fealty. The Wildlings, I suspect, would be less than pleased with Such arrangements. If they were allowed to just go about their business and not need to pay taxes to some "soft" king way in the hell south of them and not have to worry about getting conscripted for some bullshit war they couldn't care less about even in death? They'd probably be very happy to live in an area that's a little more hospitable and has more things to do than fuck, fight, and get eaten by ice zombies.

I suspect given the current situation that Tywin would be content to let the wildlings be and slowly integrate them overtime. Its fairly clear that given his lack of military support for Roose in driving out the Ironborn that he doesn't much care about the North, at least in the short term. Granting the wildlings emtpy lands just south of the wall provides a buffer from anything north of it, and a large potential pool of manpower to man the wall. It is certainly preferable to the gold and manpower - both of which are dwindling - that it would take to oppose them once they got south of the wall.

[Vympel]

I suspect given the current situation that Tywin would be content to let the wildlings be and slowly integrate them overtime. Its fairly clear that given his lack of military support for Roose in driving out the Ironborn that he doesn't much care about the North, at least in the short term. Granting the wildlings emtpy lands just south of the wall provides a buffer from anything north of it, and a large potential pool of manpower to man the wall. It is certainly preferable to the gold and manpower - both of which are dwindling - that it would take to oppose them once they got south of the wall.

Tywin doesn't really have a say in any of this. The noble houses of the North have to sign off, and chances are they won't - certainly not at the whim of fucking House Lannister. It would be up to Roose Bolton to argue the case - and if anyone thinks he'd tolerate wildlings in his kingdom, fucking with his rule, they're crazy. They'd have to swear fealty to the Warden of the North, just like every Northern house.

[TheHammer]

I suspect given the current situation that Tywin would be content to let the wildlings be and slowly integrate them overtime. Its fairly clear that given his lack of military support for Roose in driving out the Ironborn that he doesn't much care about the North, at least in the short term. Granting the wildlings emtpy lands just south of the wall provides a buffer from anything north of it, and a large potential pool of manpower to man the wall. It is certainly preferable to the gold and manpower - both of which are dwindling - that it would take to oppose them once they got south of the wall.

Tywin doesn't really have a say in any of this. The noble houses of the North have to sign off, and chances are they won't - certainly not at the whim of fucking House Lannister. It would be up to Roose Bolton to argue the case - and if anyone thinks he'd tolerate wildlings in his kingdom, fucking with his rule, they're crazy. They'd have to swear fealty to the Warden of the North, just like every Northern house.

Spoiler

The Noble houses of the North are unlikely to be in a position to stop the Wildlings without help from the other seven kingdoms. Jon takes it as a given that the army would roll over the entire north before it finally reached an army capable of stopping them. And if Roose wished to "buck the establishment", I'm sure there are plenty of Northern Lords who would be happy to take his place.

As I understand it, the size of "Brandon's gift" and "the new gift" is about 45,000 square miles (50 leagues south, for the entire 300 mile length of the wall - and actually widens further south) and is largely depopulated. As these lands technically belong to the Night's watch, allowing the wildlings to settle there shouldn't require approval of the Northern Lords. Mance could likely convince them that taking the traditional role of those lands and providing sustenance to the Nights Watch is worth the protection it would afford against white walkers and the like. Many could be also offered employment as soldiers to supplement the Night's Watch.

[Irbis]

The Wildling archer used a composite bow, and his arrow reached up to about 600feet (just shy of the 700 feet the wall is), or about 200m - indicating a good average 80-90 lbs draw weight of a strong hunting/standard war bow.

I don't know, it looked more like it barely reached halfway to the top, 400 feet maximum. Remember the apex of the trajectory was far closer to observer than top of the wall.

Though, the scene failed a bit for me. When they look at the top of the wall from the ground, people are virtually invisible. Either that was luckiest giant ever or that was magical Heatseeking Arrow of Slaying +5.

You speak as if this is a straight-forward thing. The wildlings are inherently opposed to the only sources of legitimate authority in Westeros. Inherently. Now, sure, you can beat some down but the sheer number is likely to drown the North. It's not like you can use passports and immigration to cull the bad guys.

300.000 people out of which maybe 30.000 are warriors, at best, versus 50.000 professional, well equipped soldiers and knights Eddard Stark was said to have. I know on who I'd bet. Nope, even North alone, much less with southern support, would be able to beat them, IMHO.

Cull the bad guys? After you conquer everything to the land of always winter where humans can't live, just set kill everyone who won't listen and set up feudal network of imported and local lords. If anyone tries reaving or other stuff disturbing king's peace, send raven to Starks for medieval SWAT brigade to politely explain to troublemakers using business end of the sword why that was a Very Bad Idea. It worked in real life in Scotland and Scandinavia, why not here?

And, this is skirting the thread policy, but they have been reavers since time immemorial. You think that the northern vassals are going to love having the people who steal their shit and rape their women as brothers?

You can say the very same thing about Iron islanders and somehow that didn't stopped peace after they were conquered.

[Lolpah]

300.000 people out of which maybe 30.000 are warriors, at best

But isn't pretty much every physically capable wildling male a warrior, plus a proportion of the women too? I'm pretty sure that would amount to more than 30 000.

[Ziggy Stardust]

300.000 people out of which maybe 30.000 are warriors, at best, versus 50.000 professional, well equipped soldiers and knights Eddard Stark was said to have. I know on who I'd bet. Nope, even North alone, much less with southern support, would be able to beat them, IMHO.

IIRC, isn't this support by on-screen dialogue? I mean, Jon Snow, when he is still "undercover" with the Wildlings, confides to Ygritte that every previous Wildling army was defeated in short order as soon as they ran afoul of an organized army. At the time, Jon Snow didn't know about the events that had so massively destabilized the North and left it probably incapable of raising that army, but he seemed quite confidant that just the army the Starks could raise would have little trouble with the Wildlings. He didn't even seem all that phased by the 100,000 number until it became obvious that no help was coming.

[TheHammer]

300.000 people out of which maybe 30.000 are warriors, at best, versus 50.000 professional, well equipped soldiers and knights Eddard Stark was said to have. I know on who I'd bet. Nope, even North alone, much less with southern support, would be able to beat them, IMHO.

IIRC, isn't this support by on-screen dialogue? I mean, Jon Snow, when he is still "undercover" with the Wildlings, confides to Ygritte that every previous Wildling army was defeated in short order as soon as they ran afoul of an organized army. At the time, Jon Snow didn't know about the events that had so massively destabilized the North and left it probably incapable of raising that army, but he seemed quite confidant that just the army the Starks could raise would have little trouble with the Wildlings. He didn't even seem all that phased by the 100,000 number until it became obvious that no help was coming.

Jon said that every prior wildling invasion of the south was defeated, but "defeated in short order" isn't part of that quote. He also didn't give any details as to the size of the previous invasion, nor any indication as to whether those invasions were beaten back with reinforcements from the south.

Mance makes it quite clear that he has done in uniting all of the wildling clans is unprecedented. If he managed to bring some semblance of military organization, they would be quite a force to be reckoned with. I don't know how exactly you inferred that Jon Snow wasn't "all that phased" about a force of 100,000 strong, particularly when all Rob Stark could manage to raise was a paltry 20,000 when going to war to rescue his father.

The big advantage the "south" held was the wall itself giving a massive height advantage to rain fire down on enemy forces, as well as narrow choke points to cut down on the number of troops that could be thrown into battle at once. That's why Jon was particularly concerned about the loss of the wall, wherein the wildlings would "roll over everything and everyone for 1,000 miles".

[Irbis]

Mance makes it quite clear that he has done in uniting all of the wildling clans is unprecedented. If he managed to bring some semblance of military organization, they would be quite a force to be reckoned with. I don't know how exactly you inferred that Jon Snow wasn't "all that phased" about a force of 100,000 strong, particularly when all Rob Stark could manage to raise was a paltry 20,000 when going to war to rescue his father.

Didn't he raised 20.000 because he rushed it and couldn't wait for everyone? So raised only southern part of the North?

The big advantage the "south" held was the wall itself giving a massive height advantage to rain fire down on enemy forces, as well as narrow choke points to cut down on the number of troops that could be thrown into battle at once. That's why Jon was particularly concerned about the loss of the wall, wherein the wildlings would "roll over everything and everyone for 1,000 miles".

For 1000 miles because these are either lands of the watch or minor, crappy lords without maesters or ravens. Note Ironmen did pretty much the same. If they rush south, yes, they might cover 1000 miles before anyone can organize big force but that would cost them dearly.

[TheHammer]

Mance makes it quite clear that he has done in uniting all of the wildling clans is unprecedented. If he managed to bring some semblance of military organization, they would be quite a force to be reckoned with. I don't know how exactly you inferred that Jon Snow wasn't "all that phased" about a force of 100,000 strong, particularly when all Rob Stark could manage to raise was a paltry 20,000 when going to war to rescue his father.

Didn't he raised 20.000 because he rushed it and couldn't wait for everyone? So raised only southern part of the North?

If there were mass untapped reserves in the North they would have been called up as the war progressed, or at the very least been able to hold off the Ironborn invasion.

The big advantage the "south" held was the wall itself giving a massive height advantage to rain fire down on enemy forces, as well as narrow choke points to cut down on the number of troops that could be thrown into battle at once. That's why Jon was particularly concerned about the loss of the wall, wherein the wildlings would "roll over everything and everyone for 1,000 miles".

For 1000 miles because these are either lands of the watch or minor, crappy lords without maesters or ravens. Note Ironmen did pretty much the same. If they rush south, yes, they might cover 1000 miles before anyone can organize big force but that would cost them dearly.

I got the impression that they could over-run the entire north. The only thing that might slow them down would be perhaps Moat Cailin. We know the Stormlands and the Reach could field an army of 100,000. The Lanisters had another 40,000 well supported so a push further south would almost certainly fail. But the North was still fucked. As long as the wildlings weren't greedy, and reinforced their strong points, the South would likely decide it wasn't worth it to reclaim the North, especially with Winter coming.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I don't know how exactly you inferred that Jon Snow wasn't "all that phased" about a force of 100,000 strong

Did you intentionally quote that part of my post selectively? Or did you just not understand what I meant?

What I mean is that Jon Snow seemed to be pretty confident about the power to repel the Wildling invasion, even though he knew how large it was, when he was talking to Ygritte. Granted, we don't know how truthful he was being to Ygritte, and would certainly have strong reason to lie, but the show doesn't make it clear either way. In any case, he seemed pretty confident that Mance's army wouldn't get very far regardless of its unprecedented size; the said that it will be crushed as soon as it faces an organized army. At this point, Jon Snow doesn't know about the events that have taken place farther south, including the destruction of the Starks. After he returns to Castle Black and presumably catches up on all the news, he seems (rightly) concerned that the paltry forces left will be crushed. It just seems to me that based on the information we get on-screen, the implication is that the only reason this Wildling army would get "1,000 miles" before anyone could stop them is because of the sudden power vacuum in the North. If this Wildling invasion somehow got across the Wall in the pre-War of the Five Kings era, even one 100,000 strong, it seems like it would be defeated pretty quickly by the Starks without much need for recourse from the south.

Again, this is pure speculation. But the show doesn't tell us much, and I haven't read the books. This is just how I interpreted the bits of information they did give us.

[TheHammer]

I don't know how exactly you inferred that Jon Snow wasn't "all that phased" about a force of 100,000 strong

Did you intentionally quote that part of my post selectively? Or did you just not understand what I meant?

What I mean is that Jon Snow seemed to be pretty confident about the power to repel the Wildling invasion, even though he knew how large it was, when he was talking to Ygritte. Granted, we don't know how truthful he was being to Ygritte, and would certainly have strong reason to lie, but the show doesn't make it clear either way. In any case, he seemed pretty confident that Mance's army wouldn't get very far regardless of its unprecedented size; the said that it will be crushed as soon as it faces an organized army. At this point, Jon Snow doesn't know about the events that have taken place farther south, including the destruction of the Starks. After he returns to Castle Black and presumably catches up on all the news, he seems (rightly) concerned that the paltry forces left will be crushed. It just seems to me that based on the information we get on-screen, the implication is that the only reason this Wildling army would get "1,000 miles" before anyone could stop them is because of the sudden power vacuum in the North. If this Wildling invasion somehow got across the Wall in the pre-War of the Five Kings era, even one 100,000 strong, it seems like it would be defeated pretty quickly by the Starks without much need for recourse from the south.

Again, this is pure speculation. But the show doesn't tell us much, and I haven't read the books. This is just how I interpreted the bits of information they did give us.

As you noted, you don't know how truthful Jon was being with Ygritte. He was trying to disuade her from fighting against the south. You also have to remember that history is written by the victors and all Jon knows is what he was taught when he was young. He has no large scale combat experience. And again, most likely previous invasions were piecemeal rather than the combined might of the free folk that Mance wielded.

Further, since the wall and the Nights Watch have stood for "thousands of years" without being breached, one has to conclude that whatever invasion had occured before was either via the sea, or climbers over the wall - one that hardly could be properly equiped nor in the sort of numbers that they would need to take and hold any territory.

Based on what we saw as far as wildling combat effectiveness, the idea that the Starks could stop a wildling army this large that was already south of the wall is fucking laughable. They couldn't field the numbers, and I have no idea how they would counter the giants aside from sheer attrition. One Giant alone killed 5 of the nights watch with his bare hands after having already taken several arrows and tearing through a metal gate.

[Vympel]

Didn't he raised 20.000 because he rushed it and couldn't wait for everyone? So raised only southern part of the North?

House Umber is in the north of the North (heh), so no, it wasn't just the southern part.

I got the impression that they could over-run the entire north. The only thing that might slow them down would be perhaps Moat Cailin.

Moat Cailin is only impregnable when attacking from the south. Its vulnerable from the north to any decent sized force, that's why the Ironborn could take it. There's no way the Wildlings could overrun the great strongholds of the North if they had even mediocre mutli-hundred man garrisons - Winterfell and the Dreadfort in particular (I'm trying to restrict my comments to the show, but White Harbor would also be very hard to take going from the books).

[Ziggy Stardust]

Based on what we saw as far as wildling combat effectiveness, the idea that the Starks could stop a wildling army this large that was already south of the wall is fucking laughable.

What exactly are you referencing here? We really haven't seen anything that demonstrates the Wildlings haveing some unique combat effectiveness. So far all we have seen on screen is them using questionable tactics and terrible strategy and not properly leveraging their advantages in battle. Again, on screen they have been shown to be just a disorganized mob.

How does any of this demonstrate it as "laughable" that the organized Stark army would defeat them in open combat? Hell, the only reason their disorganized attack on Castle Black was anywhere near so damaging was in no small part due to the utter incompetence of the Night's Watch itself, which was just as disorganized and idiotic.

Again, what we have seen on screen is a bunch of poorly trained criminals and rabble holding off the Wildling army. And you take that to mean it is "fucking laughable" the Starks could stop them? You realize this isn't any army of 100,000 Giants, or 100,000 Tormunds, right?

[SCRawl]

Castle Black is by design poorly defended to the south. Their mandate is to stand in the way of invaders from the north, after all; if the Night's Watch (with all of its resources) ever needs to be taken down, the southerners need to be able to do it without too much trouble. So their difficulty in defending against the raiding party is easily understood.

[Raw Shark]

Castle Black is by design poorly defended to the south. Their mandate is to stand in the way of invaders from the north, after all; if the Night's Watch (with all of its resources) ever needs to be taken down, the southerners need to be able to do it without too much trouble. So their difficulty in defending against the raiding party is easily understood.

Yeah, I forget how much they played it up on the show, but that was kind of the whole plan in the books. Mance was in the Watch, he knows all about Castle Black.

[TheHammer]

Didn't he raised 20.000 because he rushed it and couldn't wait for everyone? So raised only southern part of the North?

House Umber is in the north of the North (heh), so no, it wasn't just the southern part.

I got the impression that they could over-run the entire north. The only thing that might slow them down would be perhaps Moat Cailin.

Moat Cailin is only impregnable when attacking from the south. Its vulnerable from the north to any decent sized force, that's why the Ironborn could take it. There's no way the Wildlings could overrun the great strongholds of the North if they had even mediocre mutli-hundred man garrisons - Winterfell and the Dreadfort in particular (I'm trying to restrict my comments to the show, but White Harbor would also be very hard to take going from the books).

It remains to be seen what sort of siege weaponry they could fashion (giant with a slingshot?), but the reality is they don't need to take every major stronghold to overrun the majority of the North. There doesn't appear to be many choke points. It was that very tactic that Robert Baratheon was afraid the Dothraki would employ should their "hundred thousand strong" army make it across the sea.

Based on what we saw as far as wildling combat effectiveness, the idea that the Starks could stop a wildling army this large that was already south of the wall is fucking laughable.

What exactly are you referencing here? We really haven't seen anything that demonstrates the Wildlings haveing some unique combat effectiveness. So far all we have seen on screen is them using questionable tactics and terrible strategy and not properly leveraging their advantages in battle. Again, on screen they have been shown to be just a disorganized mob.

What I'm referencing is the fact that they were capable warriors and would outnumber the armies of the south 5 to 1. They don't need to have any unique combat effectiveness, merely to be on par with their counterparts to the south. And they have giants. We've seen what they can do with a bow or bare handed and alone. One has to wonder what a giant with an oversized slingshot could do to massed troops, or one armed with a tree sized club or spear - especially if he has wildlings protecting his flank and rear. I expect the intimidation factor alone would have an effect putting any defending army on its heels.

How does any of this demonstrate it as "laughable" that the organized Stark army would defeat them in open combat? Hell, the only reason their disorganized attack on Castle Black was anywhere near so damaging was in no small part due to the utter incompetence of the Night's Watch itself, which was just as disorganized and idiotic.

It comes down to numbers. As Stannis noted early on, most often the side with the most men wins. If the Starks could only field 20,000 men when going to war with the south, even if you believe they still had some reserves it almost certainly would still be less than half what the wildlings brought.

Again, what we have seen on screen is a bunch of poorly trained criminals and rabble holding off the Wildling army. And you take that to mean it is "fucking laughable" the Starks could stop them? You realize this isn't any army of 100,000 Giants, or 100,000 Tormunds, right?

You do realize that the Starks aren't going to have 100,000 Jon Snows, or 100,000 Direwolfs right? What makes you think the rank and file members of the stark army are going to be any better trained than the Nights Watch? The vast majority aren't full time professional soldiers. They are farmers and laborers. Just because they put on armor and take up a sword doesn't make them crack troops. And Criminals or not, at least the nights watch DO train regularly.

[Steel]

I think people are overstating the professionalism of the northern armies who as stated are mostly peasants given swords spears and armour. This is counterbalanced by the fact people are VASTLY overestimating the effectiveness of the wildlings.

The wildlings have basically nothing made of metal. Their weapons are wooden, flint and bone. They have spears that are sharpened sticks, armour that is no better than leather. The old men of the nights watch with steel swords and armour are more than a match for better wildling fighters. Wildlings have very few bits of cavalry. An actual formation of mounted, heavily armoured knights would go through the wildlings best like butter, as happened every previous invasion.

[TheHammer]

I think people are overstating the professionalism of the northern armies who as stated are mostly peasants given swords spears and armour. This is counterbalanced by the fact people are VASTLY overestimating the effectiveness of the wildlings.

The wildlings have basically nothing made of metal. Their weapons are wooden, flint and bone. They have spears that are sharpened sticks, armour that is no better than leather. The old men of the nights watch with steel swords and armour are more than a match for better wildling fighters. Wildlings have very few bits of cavalry. An actual formation of mounted, heavily armoured knights would go through the wildlings best like butter, as happened every previous invasion.

The Historical documentary BRAVEHEART showed me how you could counter heavy Cavalry with long spears.

In all seriousness, I don't see how the technological advantage the North would initially hold can counter the numerical disadvantage they are fighting with. The wildlings can pick up better weapons as they move south. The south can't grow more men to fight with. It again comes back to numbers. I don't know what sort of armory is present at castle black, but one would expect it is fairly significant.

[Steel]

When you are fighting steel with wood, and in close quarters, numbers mean little. Consider that only a certain number of men can fight in melee at once. Place a dense formation of heavily armoured knights against a loose rabble and the wildlings are actually locally outnumbered. The vast disparity in armaments if the knights means they rapidly win the current fight with very low casualties, and can use their superior mounted mobility to reengage or if there WAS ever a risk of being surrounded they can also disengage.

You can't win a war if you need to fight, but will get your arse handed to you in every battle.

[Coop D'etat]

That numerical advantage becomes pretty meaningless south of the war considering the Wildlings complete lack of logistics and minimal discipline. Even peasant conscript infantry is playing at a much higher level than they are just due to advantages in organization and the experience they're leadership would have in handling large bodies of men.

That 100,000 men is a migration rather than an army and if they stay together in hostile lands they'd starve.

Now, its quite the effort to mop them up, and they'd do a lot of damage as the more martially inclined of them disperse into bands of marrauders, but there isn't a serious likelihood of them conquering the North.

The threat they represent is the prospect of the North getting a nasty ravage as they rape, loot at murder their way through the countryside before getting stopped. Its not the chance of them actually conquering the place.