Game of Thrones Season 4 Discussion (TV Spoilers Only)

[SCRawl]

As for them being beaten before: the show itself doesn't make it clear that there was a titanic struggle. The White Walkers came, they maybe fought a few battles and a Wall was built to keep them out. This is as far as the show has gotten. Who knows how it ended?

One thing we do know for sure about this: we know how it didn't end. The Others didn't conquer the south, which means that for whatever reason, they retreated to their stronghold in the north. To know why this happened it would be good to know more of the circumstances, as well as the Others' motivations, but so far we don't.

[Elfdart]

I don't see what the big spoiler is. I figured the reason the White Walkers accepted Craster's offerings is that they needed them to sustain themselves.

[SCRawl]

I don't see what the big spoiler is. I figured the reason the White Walkers accepted Craster's offerings is that they needed them to sustain themselves.

The spoiler was about who that guy was. That wasn't even in the books yet. To be fair, it hasn't been confirmed, and it could be some misdirection on behalf of GRRM, but it sure sound plausible.

[Ziggy Stardust]

One thing we do know for sure about this: we know how it didn't end. The Others didn't conquer the south, which means that for whatever reason, they retreated to their stronghold in the north. To know why this happened it would be good to know more of the circumstances, as well as the Others' motivations, but so far we don't.

I haven't read the books, so I don't know if what I am about to say is contradicted by the background mythology, but the impression that the show has given me about the White Walkers (based on what little has been said/shown of them) is that they only "come out" during the Winter. During the long summers they retreat into whatever hidden places in the far north, where it is always Winter. When the WInter descends on Westeros, they expand their range. So far, the show hasn't even really painted them as creatures with motivations, so much as some sort of mystical evil associated with Winter.

The last big war with the White Walkers was a "generations long" winter (I believe, that was what was intimated in on-screen dialogue), which was why they were such a threat. When the summers come, they go. The whole premise of the show as now is based on the idea that the current residents of Westeros have basically had a summer so long they forget what Winter was even like, and now a particularly bad one is coming.

[Thanas]

Remove the Wall. So...prepared position somewhere in the North. You're stuck there, and the wights are outside. It's cold as fuck, but you have supplies (if you're lucky I suppose)...for now. Sure, you can move out but do you really want to do it in anything but large numbers given what's out there? So you're stuck inside, freezing your balls off. The Walkers are waiting for you to crack and try to leave. IT's so cold that growing stuff is hard and, since you're stuck, you can't defend anyone outside as they pick off all the small hamlets, adding to their army.

Food is running out, everything is snowed in and your enemies are getting stronger and stronger while the weak among you die. You're (eventually )fucked, the only question is how long you could survive before you got fucked, and how long the Walkers could wait. You would know I suppose, seeing as this is your thing.

Well, given the current conditions north the wall, almost indefinitely. There is no way the walkers can stop supply convoys, especially not if I got the sort of covering force we know from actual Roman and medieval war manuals. Obviously this changes if nothing can get through at all due to weather - but then there is no point in defending any territory there anyway as there would be no farmlands and no cities. So far the show has shown nothing of the sort of extreme weather that would preclude any disciplined army from just marching through and wiping out everything. Heck, apparently there are enough supplies and farmable land that a whole wilding horde could survive out there without looking much famished. Craster had enough supplies to give meat to guests of the watch and the deserters are still feasting on pigs etc. Even if we assume they are cutting into the winter stock this still does not scream desolate wasteland to me. Looks like just about any woodland area in northern Europe, including northern Germany in winter. Which also coincidentally in history housed some of the most populous tribes in antiquity and where Roman armies managed to continuously campaign for several dozens of years.

It's not so much that we think that a bunch of knights can't fuck things up, it's that we don't think they can fuck things up forever given the sort of situation they're in.

Nothing can last forever, not even winter. However given that supplies were usually stockpiled for a whole campaign season in Roman times then I suspect I could pretty much just strike out, retreat to warmer climates, strike back out. Rinse and repeat.

[Scrib]

Well, given the current conditions north the wall, almost indefinitely. There is no way the walkers can stop supply convoys, especially not if I got the sort of covering force we know from actual Roman and medieval war manuals.

Given the current conditions? Why would we start there? More on this below.

Obviously this changes if nothing can get through at all due to weather - but then there is no point in defending any territory there anyway as there would be no farmlands and no cities. So far the show has shown nothing of the sort of extreme weather that would preclude any disciplined army from just marching through and wiping out everything. Heck, apparently there are enough supplies and farmable land that a whole wilding horde could survive out there without looking much famished. Craster had enough supplies to give meat to guests of the watch and the deserters are still feasting on pigs etc.

You're mistaken. You're attributing the basic "summer" weather of the North to the white walkers when it's just mundane bullshit. Craster had food because it was the normal state of things. The wildlings were essentially a huge migration wave. Who knows how many died? The White Walkers seem to actively make it worse. This was seen to some degree in their assault. And, like I said, magical things seem to be getting more powerful. And Winter is coming.

The legend of the White Walkers doesn't state that they walked around during the summer when they were supplies. It's that they come in horrible winter, a lasting cold that fell across the kingdoms, and wreck shit then.

Nothing can last forever, not even winter. However given that supplies were usually stockpiled for a whole campaign season in Roman times then I suspect I could pretty much just strike out, retreat to warmer climates, strike back out. Rinse and repeat.

[/quote]
Are you sure? You realize that this is a world with seasons that last for decades at a time? And that is *before* the intervention of magical elementals that are becoming more and more aggressive (suspiciously in tune with the flourishing of other magical entities)

As for striking out...assuming that you have a target to strike out to/can get far enough. I suspect that there's only so much determined reconnaissance can do.

[Thanas]

Given the current conditions? Why would we start there?

Because it is the only thing quantifiable we actually see, aside from no limits fallacies like "extremely cold winters". You need some parameters to start a discussion.

You're mistaken. You're attributing the basic "summer" weather of the North to the white walkers when it's just mundane bullshit. Craster had food because it was the normal state of things. The wildlings were essentially a huge migration wave. Who knows how many died? The White Walkers seem to actively make it worse. This was seen to some degree in their assault. And, like I said, magical things seem to be getting more powerful. And Winter is coming.

The legend of the White Walkers doesn't state that they walked around during the summer when they were supplies. It's that they come in horrible winter, a lasting cold that fell across the kingdoms, and wreck shit then.

Yes and all we get to quantify that is that people in the cities and inside houses survived. Otherwise there would be no house stark in the north. If people in the cities survive that means foodstocks were moving in and out. There is nothing to suggest here that it was something outside a really cold northern winter because otherwise Winterfell would not exist at all.

Are you sure? You realize that this is a world with seasons that last for decades at a time? And that is *before* the intervention of magical elementals that are becoming more and more aggressive (suspiciously in tune with the flourishing of other magical entities)

If there were decades long winters with nothing growing there is no way any of the cities in the north (and they have at least one big city) or any of the keeps and holdings survived. There is no way a medieval society survives through that without a steady resupply of food and firewood being brought in and if those things can be brought in the civies can be evacuated and replaced by soldiers anyway. Alternatively, if there was still farming going on (and there most likely was or House Stark would have been supplied by the other houses out of the kindness of their hearts) then there would be enough game and food around for campaigning as well.

Really, how do you think the Romans managed to campaign in seasons where the winter was so tough that the danube and rhine rivers froze strong enough to allow people (and even cavalry) to pass? And that is not even going into the northern tribes or Scandinavian kingdoms.

[Scrib]

Because it is the only thing quantifiable we actually see, aside from no limits fallacies like "extremely cold winters". You need some parameters to start a discussion.

Fair enough.I'll concede the point. Going off the majority of what we've seen and can infer it seems that civilization manages to chug on come mundane winters.

[LaCroix]

A maybe related question - why must there always be a Stark at Winterfell?

It is a line that bugs me - they say it with as much conviction as "the winter is coming" - it is almost as if that is their second motto. They may not know the meaning behind these words anymore, after thousands of years, but I do get the feeling that it is important for some Wall-related reason.

[Imperial Overlord]

It's worth remembering that under normal circumstances those years long summers allow the storage of a lot of food, even in the North. I imagine that long winters mean that the North ends up trading things like timber, furs, and amber for food from High Garden and River Run.

[Ralin]

A maybe related question - why must there always be a Stark at Winterfell?

It is a line that bugs me - they say it with as much conviction as "the winter is coming" - it is almost as if that is their second motto. They may not know the meaning behind these words anymore, after thousands of years, but I do get the feeling that it is important for some Wall-related reason.

There's speculation that the Starks have some sort of mystical connection to Winterfell/the land/the North and that shit starts to go to hell on a grand scale if there isn't one in Winterfell for long.

I don't really buy it myself. To me it sounds like a tradition that was probably adopted because the Starks didn't want to come home one day to find a Bolton running the place.

[Thanas]

It's worth remembering that under normal circumstances those years long summers allow the storage of a lot of food, even in the North. I imagine that long winters mean that the North ends up trading things like timber, furs, and amber for food from High Garden and River Run.

But storing of food with medieval tech does not allow for a lot of food, certainly not for storing enough for more than two years. And the timber would be needed for firewood....furs and amber might be a good trade, but enough to keep the north surviving for decades? That would mean that the north would have a ridiculous production in good years which from all things in the show is not true as they are poorer than the south.

[Imperial Overlord]

It's worth remembering that under normal circumstances those years long summers allow the storage of a lot of food, even in the North. I imagine that long winters mean that the North ends up trading things like timber, furs, and amber for food from High Garden and River Run.

But storing of food with medieval tech does not allow for a lot of food, certainly not for storing enough for more than two years. And the timber would be needed for firewood....furs and amber might be a good trade, but enough to keep the north surviving for decades? That would mean that the north would have a ridiculous production in good years which from all things in the show is not true as they are poorer than the south.

Some of the timber would be needed for firewood, but not necessarily all of it. The North is a great source of timber for ship building, for example. Some activities like fishing, logging, hunting and fur trapping would continue to be done on a somewhat limited basis during the winter.

The big problem isn't how the humans survive a decade long winter, its how the animals survive it.

[Thanas]

You can't really fish and hunt enough to support a huge city. And if the waters are not frozen (allowing for the sort of ocean-going fishing that can support it) then I wonder how the White Walkers could be such a threat as it clearly is not cold enough (seriously, the Baltic freezes in normal winters - how pathetic are the White walkers really?) or how keeps removed from the ocean like Winterfell kept going.

[Imperial Overlord]

We don't see any big cities in the North and as for the White Walkers they've been so non threatening that almost no one believes in them any more. It is possible that the North has some better than typically medieval storage techniques. They certainly have incentive to develop them and there are things like the Wall that aren't mundane in origin. I'm assuming that Martin thought something like "surplus storage + hunting +trade" and didn't think about it because his only interest was in having a really long winter and not in how people and dire wolves survive a five year winter.

[SCRawl]

The hints seem to point to most winters lasting on the order of a few years, with the unusually long ones lasting maybe ten years. The just-ended summer seems to have been a long one, about nine years, so there has been quite a long time to lay down provisions.

One of the happy side effects of so much war is the reduced number of mouths to feed during the upcoming winter. Sure, those men are no longer able to participate in food production -- and harvests were surely lost during the wars as the banners were called and farmers were forced from their fields -- but there probably isn't much food production north of the Neck anyway during winter.

[SCRawl]

Here's a question. I recall from a recent episode something about a Maester being asked about the ravens and where they can be told to fly. The simple answer is that they all know one destination, and a few know more than one, but let's just assume that all ravens know exactly one address. Does this mean that they know one address including the one where they're currently living, or that they can return "home" from wherever they are? If the latter, then we ought to see people transporting ravens around by land all the time, to keep the Maesters stocked up with vehicles for their messages.

[Scrib]

Here's a question. I recall from a recent episode something about a Maester being asked about the ravens and where they can be told to fly. The simple answer is that they all know one destination, and a few know more than one, but let's just assume that all ravens know exactly one address. Does this mean that they know one address including the one where they're currently living, or that they can return "home" from wherever they are? If the latter, then we ought to see people transporting ravens around by land all the time, to keep the Maesters stocked up with vehicles for their messages.

Wasn't this Sam's job when Lord Mormont took the Watch scouting?

[Elheru Aran]

The hints seem to point to most winters lasting on the order of a few years, with the unusually long ones lasting maybe ten years. The just-ended summer seems to have been a long one, about nine years, so there has been quite a long time to lay down provisions.

One of the happy side effects of so much war is the reduced number of mouths to feed during the upcoming winter. Sure, those men are no longer able to participate in food production -- and harvests were surely lost during the wars as the banners were called and farmers were forced from their fields -- but there probably isn't much food production north of the Neck anyway during winter.

One of the points in, I think, Dance of Dragons (or the one before that, don't remember) is that...
Spoiler

At some point Cersei meets with the small council and they discuss feeding the population during the coming winter; the maesters have just decided that winter is in fact happening and that it'll be a particularly harsh one. Unfortunately because of the war, King's Landing food stores are sorely depleted, and either they will have to take food from the country to feed the city and starve the country, or vice versa. This particular situation seems to have left the land rather fucked in general as far as the winter goes.

[SCRawl]

Here's a question. I recall from a recent episode something about a Maester being asked about the ravens and where they can be told to fly. The simple answer is that they all know one destination, and a few know more than one, but let's just assume that all ravens know exactly one address. Does this mean that they know one address including the one where they're currently living, or that they can return "home" from wherever they are? If the latter, then we ought to see people transporting ravens around by land all the time, to keep the Maesters stocked up with vehicles for their messages.

Wasn't this Sam's job when Lord Mormont took the Watch scouting?

Well, yes, but that's just because he couldn't bring the castle with him. I was referring to some sort of trade like this:

1. Maester at Winterfell sends a raven to King's Landing.
2. Raven arrives at King's Landing.
3. Someone picks up that raven from King's Landing and transports it by land to the Twins.
4. Raven arrives at the Twins, where the Maester in charge puts it in a cage marked "King's Landing", so when he next needs to send a message there he uses that raven (or one like it).

Is this the mechanism, I wonder? Or am I over-complicating it?

[Scrib]

That makes sense and, looking it up, I can't find anything to contradict it so that might be how it works. I am skeptical but it seems to have worked for Sam's ravens (just the homing part).

EDIT: Well...looking at the wiki again it can just as easily support the assumption that ravens can only fly between two castles. Perhaps Sam's birds are just close enough for magic!homing? That might just be because Maesters are usually stuck in one place though.

What I'm trying to get at with this is...I dunno

[Thanas]

We don't see any big cities in the North

In the TV show, no. But there is at least one big city according to the books.

and as for the White Walkers they've been so non threatening that almost no one believes in them any more. It is possible that the North has some better than typically medieval storage techniques. They certainly have incentive to develop them and there are things like the Wall that aren't mundane in origin.

Unless they manage to develop any of the industrialized storage systems we have today (and note that it took well into the sixties until they were commonplace) it is just a physical impossibility.

I'm assuming that Martin thought something like "surplus storage + hunting +trade" and didn't think about it because his only interest was in having a really long winter and not in how people and dire wolves survive a five year winter.

Fair point. Or the legends are embellished.

[Elheru Aran]

Well, yes, but that's just because he couldn't bring the castle with him. I was referring to some sort of trade like this:

1. Maester at Winterfell sends a raven to King's Landing.
2. Raven arrives at King's Landing.
3. Someone picks up that raven from King's Landing and transports it by land to the Twins.
4. Raven arrives at the Twins, where the Maester in charge puts it in a cage marked "King's Landing", so when he next needs to send a message there he uses that raven (or one like it).

Is this the mechanism, I wonder? Or am I over-complicating it?

That is basically how it worked with carrier pigeons, I believe. No reason to assume the ravens would be much different apart from the possibly magical ones that can do more than one destination.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_pigeon has a pretty decent summary.

[SCRawl]

That is basically how it worked with carrier pigeons, I believe. No reason to assume the ravens would be much different apart from the possibly magical ones that can do more than one destination.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_pigeon has a pretty decent summary.

And yet, not one mention of ravens being transported around. I guess there isn't time for that sort of background stuff in a TV show, and I can tell you that I can't recall any mention of it in the books. They don't give a recipe for a "bowl of brown", either, so I suppose I shouldn't be too surprised that this detail is absent.

[Ralin]

And yet, not one mention of ravens being transported around. I guess there isn't time for that sort of background stuff in a TV show, and I can tell you that I can't recall any mention of it in the books. They don't give a recipe for a "bowl of brown", either, so I suppose I shouldn't be too surprised that this detail is absent.

http://www.amazon.com/Feast-Ice-Fire-Of ... 0345534492

I googled the table of contents too and yes, that is one of the recipes in it.