Canada: Liberal Gov't to collapse?

[Joe]

link

The possible collapse of the Liberal minority government is once again a hot topic on Parliament Hill, fuelled by reports of explosive new testimony at the sponsorship inquiry.

Although exact details of the testimony cannot be revealed due to a publication ban, there are reports its disclosure would prove so devastating that Paul Martin's Liberal minority could fall if it became public.

Watching developments in Ottawa Friday night, CTV's Mike Duffy says the capital is buzzing with speculation the opposition will confront the Liberals with some of that testimony next week.

"It's probably going to be raised here on Monday by the opposition," Duffy told CTV News.

"Because MPs have privilege on the floor of the House of Commons it is conceivable that the Bloc Quebecois could get up and run some information from behind the closed doors" at the Gomery inquiry, he said.

According to a report from The Canadian Press, the threat is looming so large all parties are quickly reviewing their election plans.

Liberal MPs in so-called "safe seats" have been asked to contact neighbouring ridings to help organize local campaigns, CP reports. One Liberal MP, who asked to remain anonymous, went so far as to tell the news agency: "Our election readiness went up 20 per cent today."

Martin's government is already on edge over a critical budget vote that all parties had at one time signalled willingness to support.

Their backing was called into question, however, after the Liberals added measures to broaden the Canadian Environmental Protection Act and implement the recent offshore oil agreement.

That thrust the Conservative Party, with their opposition to Kyoto, into a political predicament as the combination of their vote with those of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois would be enough to bring the government down.

If an election were called, CTV Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said Parliament could be in line for shakeup.

The Bloc Quebecois could potentially sweep Quebec in an election, Fife said.

"It could mean that the Conservatives will make real significant gains in Ontario and perhaps parts of Atlantic Canada," he added. "It could mean that the Liberals will be in opposition and the Conservatives would form a minority government."

Despite the potential gains, until now no party has wanted to be responsible for calling Canadians back to the polls so soon after the last election.

But mounting criticism spurred by a stream of revelations at the sponsorship inquiry headed by Justice John Gomery appears to be changing that.

"All I can say is that given what was said yesterday the political landscape may be changing quite rapidly," Conservative Justice Critic Vic Toews told CP.

Montreal advertising executive Jean Brault appeared before the inquiry in Montreal Thursday.

His testimony is covered by a publication ban intended to protect his right to a fair trial on criminal-fraud charges related to the now-defunct sponsorship program.

His inquiry testimony could be made public once his trial is over.

Lawyers for the former Groupaction chief petitioned a Montreal court Friday, to have his May trial date pushed back to September.

The court is expected to issue its decision next Wednesday.

While the NDP accused the Liberals of attempting to orchestrate both their own demise and a scapegoat in the Opposition, senior Liberals dismissed such accusations wholesale.

According to Martin spokesperson Scott Reid, no matter how explosive the inquiry testimony, the present government shouldn't pay a price.

He also dismissed suggestions his party is angling for a return to the polls.

"The Canadian people do not want an election," he said.

"The government does not want an election. The only leader who has spoken about the possibility of an election is Stephen Harper."

Last week, Harper suggested he was set for a showdown with the government over the federal budget bill.

Debate on the bill begins next week.

What the hell is going on up North?

[Darth Wong]

What the hell is going on up North?

There's a huge scandal brewing about how government officials might have used their positions in order to steer excessively lucrative contracts toward their friends. In other words, corrupt politics as usual, but we get more worked up about it than you do.

[Aaron]

There's a huge scandal brewing about how government officials might have used their positions in order to steer excessively lucrative contracts toward their friends. In other words, corrupt politics as usual, but we get more worked up about it than you do.

So if the Liberals go down I assume I can kiss the military budget increase goodbye?

[SirNitram]

This is the fourth time, I think, I've heard talk about the Bloc/Alliance trying to collapse the government and get a new election. Unless this testimony is really damning, I doubt it.

I'm amused by the article, though. 'The Bloc could sweep Quebec'.. Well, yea, asshole, you exist solely to fellate the region.

It's possible. We'll see.

[Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba]

Almost every fucking year I see another article like this, be it from The Globe, or mostly the Leader-Post. It still hasn't come to pass. The Liberals have often sat on a very rickety platform, but it appears that the 'creative structural design' of this beast has always persevered, better than those of parties which you would think to be more stable. Yet another scandal won't change this.

[MKSheppard]

From another board by Ian Gibson

So it appears that the inquiry in the Federal sponsorship scandal is starting to bear fruit. In testamony on Friday something was said that was so explosive it will apparently bring down the government on Monday. The testamony from this particular witness is under a publication ban because of fears that the jury pool for his criminal trial (which starts in May) will be tainted.

This post from small dead animals gives some good background links.

The testimony at the ongoing Gomery Inquiry into the Sponsorship program, in which money was poured into Liberal friendly advertising agencies and possibly rerouted back to party coffers has reportedly heard "devastating testimony" over the past two days.

What it is, no one can say - the testimony is under a court ordered publication ban, on the premise that releasing it could prejudice other criminal trials. But it seems to be damning enough that both the governing Liberals and opposition parties are moving into high gear in preparation for the possible fall of the minority government.

from ctv news :

Watching developments in Ottawa Friday night, CTV's Mike Duffy says the capital is buzzing with speculation the opposition will confront the Liberals with some of that testimony next week.

"It's probably going to be raised here on Monday by the opposition," Duffy told CTV News.

"Because MPs have privilege on the floor of the House of Commons it is conceivable that the Bloc Quebecois could get up and run some information from behind the closed doors" at the Gomery inquiry, he said.

According to a report from The Canadian Press, the threat is looming so large all parties are quickly reviewing their election plans.

Liberal MPs in so-called "safe seats" have been asked to contact neighbouring ridings to help organize local campaigns, CP reports. One Liberal MP, who asked to remain anonymous, went so far as to tell the news agency: "Our election readiness went up 20 per cent today."

The story has been picked up some American blogs notably Captain's Quarters. see here
Thankfully, he has been able to publish some of the details (though only second hand)

Payoffs And Kickbacks

On Thursday, Jean Brault began his testimony, subject to the publication ban, and revealed a massive pattern of corruption going to the highest levels of the Liberal party and government. Brault testified to hundreds of thousands of dollars of bogus transactions designed to benefit the Liberal Party of Canada over a period from 1994 to 2002.

Most of the illegal campaign contributions involved Brault either hiring “employees” -- who were in fact working full time on Liberal Party activities -- or paying invoices for Liberal Party campaign expenses (which were never declared as such) or making untraceable cash donations to Liberal officials. In exchange for helping the federal Liberals in Quebec, Brault received millions of dollars in federal advertising contracts.

Brault said he met with Jean Carle, a key aide to then Prime Minister Jean Chretien to propose a more direct way of ensuring that Groupaction got a large share of federal advertising dollars in Quebec. Carle referred Brault to federal bureaucrat Charles (“Chuck”) Guité and told him that “there was room for everybody.” Guité later put together the sponsorship program, in which five Liberal connected firms -- including Groupaction -- were guaranteed a monopoly on government “sponsorship” advertising (e.g. federal
advertising at sporting or cultural events) and related work. The sponsorship program eventually became a huge slush fund into which over $250 million was poured, over $100 million of which was paid in fees and commissions to these five advertising firms, with little or any evidence of work done or value for money.

In exchange for these large contracts for little or no work, Brault kicked back generously to the Liberal Party, putting Liberal organizers on his payroll while they continued to perform party work (including, at one point, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien’s brother, Gaby Chrétien), paying invoices to other companies for work actually done for the Liberal Party, and giving large donations -- in cash -- to the Liberal Party through Renaud or Liberal Party organizer (and close associate of Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano) Joe Morselli.

Protection Racket?

Towards the later part of the sponsorship program, the friends and associates of Public Works Minister and former ambassador to Denmark Alfonso Gagliano, some of whom have been linked to organized crime, played a larger role in the schemes.

At one point, Gagliano associate Tony Mignacca told Brault that if he didn’t rehire Renaud (who had left Groupaction to start a new company), he would lose his newly acquired contract with Via Rail -- Canada’s state-run passenger rail service. Brault broke down in tears after he recounted this testimony. At a meeting in 2001 with Joe Morselli, Brault said that he arranged to have the meeting in an overheated room in a restaurant -- so that Brault could ask Morselli to take off his coat and ensure that he wasn’t carrying a body pack.

This is just the beginning of Brault's testimony. If the Gomery Commission can corroborate Brault, then the reek of corruption goes through all levels of the Liberal party and may explain their ability to out-campaign the Conservatives. After all, they've siphoned off hundreds of millions of government dollars to promote their own party and to guarantee their monopoly on power. They hijacked the Canadian tax base to fund their own campaigns and hide the financial trail.

This could go one of two ways - either the liberals could call a snap election and try to get a majority before the voters learned the full details of the Gomery inquiry testamony OR the Bloc or NDP or Conservatives could use parliamentry privilege disclose during question period the contents of the testamony, call for a non-confidence vote and bring down the goverment. Either way this is going to get messy really quickly.

Personally, I am hoping for an election after the testamony has been disclosed - which would hopefully atleast elect the Conservatives at the head of a minority government.

**just in case anyone is curious there isn't a peep out of the CBC on this -- quelle surprise...

[Darth Wong]

It's still premature to say anything concrete about what these revelations will be, since there is a publication ban so any information we do get is of suspect quality.

[Montcalm]

It's still premature to say anything concrete about what these revelations will be, since there is a publication ban so any information we do get is of suspect quality.

And this ban arrived at a convenient time,allegedly not to distract the jury in a related trial.....somehow i feel like its gonna be swept under the rug fast.

[Darth Wong]

It's still premature to say anything concrete about what these revelations will be, since there is a publication ban so any information we do get is of suspect quality.

And this ban arrived at a convenient time,allegedly not to distract the jury in a related trial.....somehow i feel like its gonna be swept under the rug fast.

The ban isn't permanent; eventually this information will become public record, but not during the trial.

[Master of Ossus]

This is the fourth time, I think, I've heard talk about the Bloc/Alliance trying to collapse the government and get a new election. Unless this testimony is really damning, I doubt it.

I'm amused by the article, though. 'The Bloc could sweep Quebec'.. Well, yea, asshole, you exist solely to fellate the region.

It's possible. We'll see.

The Bloc, though, is mind-bogglingly stupid. That's their disadvantage--even in Quebec some of their dumb policies go too far.

[Darth Wong]

This is the fourth time, I think, I've heard talk about the Bloc/Alliance trying to collapse the government and get a new election. Unless this testimony is really damning, I doubt it.

I'm amused by the article, though. 'The Bloc could sweep Quebec'.. Well, yea, asshole, you exist solely to fellate the region.

It's possible. We'll see.

The Bloc, though, is mind-bogglingly stupid. That's their disadvantage--even in Quebec some of their dumb policies go too far.

They may be stupid, but they have an ironclad hold on their electoral seats.

[Master of Ossus]

They may be stupid, but they have an ironclad hold on their electoral seats.

Yeah, they'll manage to hold onto their small fraction of Parliament. It's fortunate that they have no real ability to expand outside of Quebec, so they'll always be in the minority.

[frigidmagi]

Yeah, they'll manage to hold onto their small fraction of Parliament. It's fortunate that they have no real ability to expand outside of Quebec, so they'll always be in the minority.

Forgive my ignorence folks but this is the party that wants an indepenent Quebec isn't it? So isn't their goal to force a split one way or another and then become the majority by virtue of being the only real party in Quebec or something like that?

[Imperial Overlord]

frigidmagi, you are correct in general. However, Quebec also leans towards having a more intrusive government (language laws, government funded childcare, etcetera). So allying with the Conservatives on social policy is tricky for them, especially because the Alliance wing of the Conservative party is strongly disliked in Quebec and is believed by many to be strongly anti-Quebec. They can't afford to bring down the Liberals in a way that hurts their chances of getting votes.

[frigidmagi]

I see, thank you Overlord.

[Montcalm]

And as long as the fucking bloc brings their nation of Quebec dream,we'll see them in Ottawa forever.


Quoting most of Quebec french: TABARNAK

[Imperial Overlord]

You're welcome.

[Psycho Smiley]

The budget vote ought to be interesting. The Canapublicans say they'll vote it down because it supports Kyoto, and the NDP says it will vote against it because it doesn't support Kyoto enough. And if the Liberals pull the current provisions to make both sides happy, they get blasted for not picking a position on the subject.

Oh, and what happens to bills such as the gay marriage one if they're in the middle of parliament when an election gets called? Do they get junked, or are they held until the new government is in place? (In which case it isn't worth the paper it's written on anyway if the Conservatives get power.)

[Mr. T]

There's a huge scandal brewing about how government officials might have used their positions in order to steer excessively lucrative contracts toward their friends. In other words, corrupt politics as usual, but we get more worked up about it than you do.

So if the Liberals go down I assume I can kiss the military budget increase goodbye?

Not necessarily. I mean if the Conservatives form the government, they are much more military friendly then the Liberals. But of course, we'd also have to put up with there backwards social policies.

[Jalinth]

The budget vote ought to be interesting. The Canapublicans say they'll vote it down because it supports Kyoto, and the NDP says it will vote against it because it doesn't support Kyoto enough. And if the Liberals pull the current provisions to make both sides happy, they get blasted for not picking a position on the subject.

Oh, and what happens to bills such as the gay marriage one if they're in the middle of parliament when an election gets called? Do they get junked, or are they held until the new government is in place? (In which case it isn't worth the paper it's written on anyway if the Conservatives get power.)

The Canapublics do not have a huge similarity to the US variety. The "fundie" side is heavily counterweighted by other varities of conservatives (libertarian and fiscal) and centrists - unlike the US. They are pro-military - but in Canada, being pro-military is vastly different than the US (the Canadian military won't be invading anyone in the near future). Basically, the far-left of the US Republicans is closer to the mid-right of the Conservatives.

To get back to your question Any bills not passed at the end of a particular parliament (at prorogation) are dead and must be restarted anew. Doesn't matter on what subject. And passed means going through all three readings of both houses. Money measures (anything spending money) are important since a lost vote is automatically a non-confidence vote to boot. So many of the conservatives ended up not voting on the budget to avoid an election. A reasonable way to showing they disliked the budget but didn't want to plunge the country into yet another election in less than a year.

Given the current public mood, who'd win would be a toss-up. Likely yet another minority - either conservative or liberal. Personally, I'd like a minority Conservative government so that they can show how they would govern. A minority ensures they can't undertake any extreme policy shifts while alleviating the problem that only one party has any governing experience - a country needs to have more than one viable governing party to be a real democracy.

If Conservatives show they (the ruling circle) are a bunch of untrustworthy jackasses - they'll be booted out in short order with fairly few negative effects. At which point Canada will have to find a way to create a 2nd party that can actually win power or we might as well change the constitution so that Canada is a one party state in law as well as in reality.

[Robert Walper]

I would've loved to see a iron fisted Prime Minister come into power several years old. Imagine: "As my first act, I shall create a grand army for the Canadian public, to counter the increasing threat of the seperatists."

[Psycho Smiley]

Any bills not passed at the end of a particular parliament (at prorogation) are dead and must be restarted anew.

Damn. Yet another reason the Conservatives wouldn't mind voting down the budget. If it doesn't get passed first, they don't have to worry about killing it if they form the next government.

[General Brock]

The government won't collapse this year. The scandal will played on and dragged out till summer break, when the Libs at least hope people will forget over their BBQs. IN the meantime, there are coffers to fill and favours to pay off. Harper and the Conservatives are playing for more press time, but everyone is comfortable where they are, with PM Martin squirming under mild heat.

[Solauren]

If any of the political parties have brains, they'll keep the Liberals in power for as long as they can.

Simple Reason:
With everyone being so nicely represented in Parliment, they ALL have a chance to make waves, get heard, etc.

Then, when an election finally is called, they can all honestly say

"We kept our promise and didn't try to bring down the government"
And have years worth of political comprimises by the other guys to use as ammo they are not trustworthy
as well as year of 'Hey, they did this and this and this to try to bring down the government' as well.

If even one of the political parties grows enough of a brain cell, they could nicely pull strings and not threaten government collapse for a while, and when the next electrion comes, pull off a majority victory.

[Sephirius]

Ah, fuck Canadian political parties, fuck em all.

Let's create an SD.net party and take the country!