Rome, Titus, Zealots and Al Queda

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Plekhanov
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Post by Plekhanov »

I’d like to respond to your most recent post in this thread Kast and address a few of it’s more obviously preposterous arguments but I’m afraid you’re confusing me again, how can you state that (my emphasis):
Axis Kast wrote:Iran is reforming, but they’re also an unrepentant state sponsor of terrorism
and then in your next paragraph state:
Axis Kast wrote:Because in the case of nations like Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, where most of the problems lie, there aren’t any progressive reform movements – nor any nascent reform movements, for that matter. Iraq wasn’t going anywhere fast; Iran tempers its positive steps forward with a healthy involvement in international terrorism, and Saudi Arabia’s left hand passes terrorists cash while its right ineffectually tries to root out those same organizations.
Which is it? How do you reconcile the two (to my understanding at least) contradictory statements?
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Post by frigidmagi »

Maybe because recently the clerics removed all the reformers from the ballots? That's why he said that?

I don't know, I'm really just guessing.
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Post by Darth Wong »

Axis Kast wrote:Iran is reforming, but they’re also an unrepentant state sponsor of terrorism.
Correction: you don't care about terrorism. You only care about terrorism against Israel or the United States. Of those two, you should only be concerned with one.
I think you’d agree that if only the strategic situation befit it, we could be invading Iran with absolute legitimacy on all of the charges we laid at Saddam Hussein’s feet.
To say that an invasion has as much legitimacy as the invasion of Iraq is downright comical.
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Post by Augustus »

Allow me to interrupt Axi getting verbally pounded -

"Is there a historical parallel between anything what the West is facing with Islam today and if so does it present a solution to our present?" That’s the question I was trying to pose with the 1st post.

It seems to have opened up a can of worms - and devolved into a debate on the merits of current US policy in the Middle East. I have lurked on this board long enough to know that, opinions are too divided to conclude that in any satisfactory way.

Mike summed up the position of those against what is going on in Iraq very sharply -
Darth Wong wrote:...in the western world should attempt to violently destroy or suppress any government whose interests conflict with ours and from whom there has been hostility in the past, and that those of us who do not pull our weight in this grand enterprise are either cowards or fools.
Fair enough and well put.

So rather than go over that very, very well trodden ground again, lets look at things a different way.

I'm a "right-winger", voted for Bush and probably will again. However, in truth something bothers me about the "grand" Middle East policy, as it exists today. I understand the theory of setting up a Democracy in the heart of the Middle East. I understand what it would mean to have a permanent military presence in that part of the world. Even though I have close friends in the USANG and the US ARMY over there, the casualty numbers don’t make me flinch, having served in uniform myself I always thought they seemed low compared to what I was taught to except from urban combat.

What bothers me is that I don’t believe we ('we' is used in the broadest possible sense here - and includes everyone) are attacking the problem at its center of gravity. For example: Rome has problems with Jewish Zealots, they can't control them, the Jews can't control them, so what do they do upend the Jewish faith and remove the Reason-Detre for the Zealots. They attacked the problem at its center to solve it, without Vespasian throwing up his hands and going “Oh well those are the Jews for you! I guess we shouldn’t have been interfering their part of the World anyway! What does Rome need in Judea anyway”!

So given all we know about modern day and ancient Islam, what is the center of gravity to this problem? What is the pivot about which all this crap revolves?

What removes the Reason-Detre of Al Queda?
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Post by PainRack »

Axis Kast wrote:
Are you trying to make a coherent point of your own, or do you just like rewording what I’ve already said? We’ve already discussed why the rest of the resents American power. And that there is indeed a culture of victimization in the Middle East. I don’t need you rephrasing all of my arguments in question form.
I'm asking which point are you trying to make?
Terrorists hate America, or the World hates America. Because if its the second, your viewpoints is awfully incomplete. If its the first, your viewpoint is a red herring.

Iran is reforming, but they’re also an unrepentant state sponsor of terrorism. I think you’d agree that if only the strategic situation befit it, we could be invading Iran with absolute legitimacy on all of the charges we laid at Saddam Hussein’s feet.
I think that invading Iran will be one of the biggest mistakes America can make, that may well set it on the route to its downfall as an hyper-power, along with Iraq.

There are other tools available to enforce reform, which America has used in the past. Foreign military aid for example(Egypt).

Because in the case of nations like Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, where most of the problems lie, there aren’t any progressive reform movements – nor any nascent reform movements, for that matter. Iraq wasn’t going anywhere fast; Iran tempers its positive steps forward with a healthy involvement in international terrorism, and Saudi Arabia’s left hand passes terrorists cash while its right ineffectually tries to root out those same organizations.
And no such reform movements existed in Oman either. You seem to believe that only in having an American puppet government, or American government itself in control of a nation can political reforms be made. However, America and Britain has both shown that other tools are available. For example, a British expert with the ISS has once stated that terrorism is on its last gasp(1998), as her stated goals of expelling Western influence/presence, Islamic Super-state is no longer attractive to the majority of the civilians, thus, forcing them to resort to violence. He noted that the continued political stability of the ruling governments of Saudi Arabia and other non rogue states in the region, along with the economic transition to a non oil based economy, education of the citizens will ensure that the then Islamic militant movement died out.

Interestingly, this appears to still be the viewpoints of many moderate muslim nations like Malaysia and Pakistan.
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Post by PainRack »

Augustus wrote: So given all we know about modern day and ancient Islam, what is the center of gravity to this problem? What is the pivot about which all this crap revolves?

What removes the Reason-Detre of Al Queda?
Al Queda is merely the tip of the iceberg, representing a century old militant political tranistion for Arab muslims. Its surivival lies on a very simple axis
1. Arab Muslims are on the lowest rung of economic and social importance in both world and regional politics.

2 Al Queda preaches that America is responsible for this state of affairs, and that she continues to prevent muslims from being in their "space in the sun", the way to continue forth is an Islamic super-state, or to fundamentalist Muslim government, or so on and forth.

3. Good Muslims should join the struggle and help their down-trodden bethren, who are in the dumps because of foreigners.


Unfortunately, they can only be resolved by a general ground based reform of Arab society. Any anti-terrorist stragety should thus rely on the means of weakening/preventing terrorist attacks by
1. Going after terrorist leaders.
2. Going after terrorist funding.
3. Going after terrorist recruiment.
4. Beefing up security apparatus so that it becomes more proportionally diffcult to mount attacks, even while such attacks become more diffcult to do due to the weaker organisational and resources available due to the above measures.

In the mid term, terrorist rationale should be weakened via a system of "propganda". Foreign aid should be more targeted and made more effective, basing itself primarily on education, instead of the infrastructure based modes of previous models. Current issues abused for recruitment/funding purposes should be addressed, Palestine, Pakistan, Africa, etc etc etc.

Long term, the only way to defeat terrorism is through the muslim populace themselves. They must elevate their economic and social status, create a vibrant Arab culture, that reflects both their Islam and arab heritage while being relevent in the modern world and they must reform politically.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Augustus wrote:What bothers me is that I don’t believe we ('we' is used in the broadest possible sense here - and includes everyone) are attacking the problem at its center of gravity. For example: Rome has problems with Jewish Zealots, they can't control them, the Jews can't control them, so what do they do upend the Jewish faith and remove the Reason-Detre for the Zealots. They attacked the problem at its center to solve it, without Vespasian throwing up his hands and going “Oh well those are the Jews for you! I guess we shouldn’t have been interfering their part of the World anyway! What does Rome need in Judea anyway”!

So given all we know about modern day and ancient Islam, what is the center of gravity to this problem? What is the pivot about which all this crap revolves?

What removes the Reason-Detre of Al Queda?
You keep attempting to draw an historical parallel which simply does not apply to the current situation. The Romans were faced with a revolt within one of their provinces, where they had a long-established colonial presence and against a relatively small and self-contained enemy. Their problem was along the lines of a traditional revolutionary resistance movement which was amenable to a military solution; doubly so because the Jewish religion at that time was far more centred upon the Temple and the establishment of the Sanhedrin and to destroy one and disperse the other was an effective tactic. Furthermore, Rome did not make Judiaism itself her enemy.

By contrast, Islam not only has more than a billion adherents worldwide, it is not wholly pinned upon any one central place or leadership group (the spiritual requirement of the haij to Mecca notwithstanding). Attempting to attack Islam —or Islamic extremism— is akin to punching water.

Furthermore, groups like Al Qaeda have made the source of their raison d'etre quite plain: American interference in Arab affairs, our wholly one-sided support of Israel regardless of whatever outrages or atrocities it commits against the Palestinians, and our placing permanent U.S. military forces within the Holy Land —a line we had not crossed prior to the 1991 Gulf War. Combined with what they perceive as an American attempt to extirpate their religion and culture altogether (a perception fueled by the irresponsible cant of the Neocons), the Arab world has less and less reason to trust our motives and more and more reason to resist the alien invaders to the death.
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Post by Augustus »

Patrick Degan wrote:You keep attempting to draw an historical parallel which simply does not apply to the current situation. The Romans were faced with a revolt within one of their provinces, where they had a long-established colonial presence and against a relatively small and self-contained enemy. Their problem was along the lines of a traditional revolutionary resistance movement, which was amenable to a military solution; doubly so because the Jewish religion at that time was far more centered upon the Temple and the establishment of the Sanhedrin and to destroy one and disperse the other was an effective tactic. Furthermore, Rome did not make Judaism itself her enemy.
Pat keep in mind I'm trying to have a civil discourse here - but no I'm not. Sure the opening of the tread started off in that direction but here I'm seeking only a parallel insofar as the Romans attacked center of their problems. I think we should do the same and don’t necessarily believe that what is going on in the Middle East right now addresses the root problem - Hell I'm not even convinced that the war in Afghanistan did much to eliminate the real problem.
Patrick Degan wrote:By contrast, Islam not only has more than a billion adherents worldwide, it is not wholly pinned upon any one central place or leadership group (the spiritual requirement of the haij to Mecca notwithstanding). Attempting to attack Islam —or Islamic extremism— is akin to punching water.
Thats nice - we have been over that. And if you go back and read you see that everyone is in agreement (except maybe Shep :D ) that Islam can not be attacked in the same fashion that Titus used against the Jews. i.e. nuking Mecca or having the 24th ID cart the Kabaah back to DC after razing the city.
Patrick Degan wrote:Furthermore, groups like Al Qaeda have made the source of their raison d'etre quite plain: American interference in Arab affairs, our wholly one-sided support of Israel regardless of whatever outrages or atrocities it commits against the Palestinians, and our placing permanent U.S. military forces within the Holy Land —a line we had not crossed prior to the 1991 Gulf War. Combined with what they perceive as an American attempt to extirpate their religion and culture altogether (a perception fueled by the irresponsible cant of the Neocons), the Arab world has less and less reason to trust our motives and more and more reason to resist the alien invaders to the death.
Again please take into consideration that I would like to have a civil discourse and discussion of ideas with you even though I feel we are on opposite ends of the political spectrum.

Lets leave Israel out of this for the moment and return to it later.

I don’t believe Al Qaeda wants us gone from the Middle East - in fact I think they want us more involved than we have been in the past.

What I believe Al Qaeda wants is to become the ultimate arbiters of Superpower policy in the Middle East. And I mean Superpower in the generic sense - It just happens to be the US, it could have been the Russians, Chinese or anyone.

They rightly precieve the pressures that the West places on the various Arab states in pursut of oil and realize that they can with just enough turmoil threaten to "upset the applecart". This puts them in a position of power with the potential capability of making the "real" decisions, not the Arab states.

Al Qaeda I believe is as much a political organization as it is a paramilitary one. All the protesations about "Holy Lands" and Islamic religon is worth just as much out of their mouths as it is out of any Western Politician talking about Christaianity (read Bush if you like). Its a convient tool that inspires the imagination of those nit-wits that can't think for themselves and has little or nothing to do with their real agenda.

I would hypothesize Al Qaeda wants to used us like a lever and Afganistan/Iraq is the pivot. The question in my mind is where/who do they want the force applied to.
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Post by Sarevok »

Pat keep in mind I'm trying to have a civil discourse here - but no I'm not. Sure the opening of the tread started off in that direction but here I'm seeking only a parallel insofar as the Romans attacked center of their problems. I think we should do the same and don’t necessarily believe that what is going on in the Middle East right now addresses the root problem - Hell I'm not even convinced that the war in Afghanistan did much to eliminate the real problem.
Going Roman against muslim countries will cost many US lives and earn the US many many more enemies. It wont solve any problems. Rather it will create many new problems in the form a muslim world that hates the US with a vengeance.
Thats nice - we have been over that. And if you go back and read you see that everyone is in agreement (except maybe Shep ) that Islam can not be attacked in the same fashion that Titus used against the Jews. i.e. nuking Mecca or having the 24th ID cart the Kabaah back to DC after razing the city.
Mecca and Medina are holy cities. However taking them out does not achieve anything. It merely denies the muslims a place of worship. The real problem will be the muslims will never forgive those who attacked these two cities.
Lets leave Israel out of this for the moment and return to it later.
Israel is a very important reason why many muslims hate the US. The one sided US support to aid and support to Israels attrocacies has antagonised muslims.
I don’t believe Al Qaeda wants us gone from the Middle East - in fact I think they want us more involved than we have been in the past.
Playing the devils advocate here I think you are right about this. Al-Quada wants the US to get more involved militarily in the middle east so they can get more Sahids (matyrs) for their cause.
I have to tell you something everything I wrote above is a lie.
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Post by Augustus »

evilcat4000 wrote:Going Roman against muslim countries will cost many US lives and earn the US many many more enemies. It wont solve any problems. Rather it will create many new problems in the form a muslim world that hates the US with a vengeance.
Attacking the "center of gravtiy" of the problem is not the same as attacking Islam. And yes if you successfully attack the CG then you will solve the problem.
evilcat4000 wrote:Israel is a very important reason why many muslims hate the US. The one sided US support to aid and support to Israels attrocacies has antagonised muslims.
Israel is a subject that is likely to cloud the waters more that clear them. First Al Qaeda, dispite what they say, doesnt give a shit about the Palestinians. Here is why, Israel acts as an emotional ancor for the US in the region. We will not abandon an ally, nor will we reduce our level of aid to them; in short Israel keeps the US engaged in the Middle East.

But you can't draw the US deeper into the Middle East by threatening Israel - the country is too well armed and defended to need help. Palestine is a useful poster child for recruiting Jihaddis (read: useful Idiots) but thats about it. Thats why Al Qaeda has not and proably will not hit Israel - its a waste from their POV.
evilcat4000 wrote:Playing the devils advocate here I think you are right about this. Al-Quada wants the US to get more involved militarily in the middle east so they can get more Sahids (matyrs) for their cause.
That in itself is not enough for Al Qaeda. They have enough recruiting tools already. What they want to to be the people that essentially "direct" US power and policy in the region. Although I doubt the street level Jihaddi thinks of it in those terms.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Very well, leaving aside the other points of this discussion.
Augustus wrote:I don’t believe Al Qaeda wants us gone from the Middle East - in fact I think they want us more involved than we have been in the past.

What I believe Al Qaeda wants is to become the ultimate arbiters of Superpower policy in the Middle East. And I mean Superpower in the generic sense - It just happens to be the US, it could have been the Russians, Chinese or anyone.

They rightly precieve the pressures that the West places on the various Arab states in pursut of oil and realize that they can with just enough turmoil threaten to "upset the applecart". This puts them in a position of power with the potential capability of making the "real" decisions, not the Arab states.

Al Qaeda I believe is as much a political organization as it is a paramilitary one. All the protesations about "Holy Lands" and Islamic religon is worth just as much out of their mouths as it is out of any Western Politician talking about Christaianity (read Bush if you like). Its a convient tool that inspires the imagination of those nit-wits that can't think for themselves and has little or nothing to do with their real agenda.

I would hypothesize Al Qaeda wants to used us like a lever and Afganistan/Iraq is the pivot. The question in my mind is where/who do they want the force applied to.
I think you're trying too hard to project Western-think upon non-Western minds. The idea that Al-Qaeda wants us engaged against them indefinitely with the Middle East as the battleground makes little sense from an Islamic perspective. These people aren't Chicago-style ward heelers. I must point out again that Al-Qaeda had no existence before our large-scale intrusion into regional affairs over and beyond our longtime support for the corrupt shiekdoms which have ruled those countries allied to us in the region. To them, the conflict against America has nothing to do with cynical manipulation of the lumpen masses. Their object is not to wield political influence but to overthrow secular/Western corruption altogether.

Their focus is upon America because it is Americans who are perceived as the imperial intruders into their lands —not the Russians or the Chinese, who have neither the capacity or the intent to intervene in Middle East affairs nor have any particular stake in the existence of Israel. And as has been pointed out, it really is not possible to seperate Israel from any discussion of American policy in the Middle East or how it helps drive anti-American sentiment.
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Post by Axis Kast »

This might what you think you wrote but it definitely isn’t what’s there in your post. So far in this short thread you’ve accused Painrack, Darth Wong and myself (that’s 3 of the 4 people you’ve responded to) of misunderstanding your posts. Maybe the problem isn’t in us poor confused, mortals being unable to comprehend your words wisdom but in the gap between what you seem to think you’re are writing and proving and what we are reading.
Hardly. It’s you accusing me of leaving out all the unnecessary details you just love to push around when you have any discussion involving the United States. It’s PainRack rewording what I’ve written and then presenting it as an indictment against me for reasons I simply cannot fathom. And, finally, it’s Mike Wong building his own little version of reality rather than confronting the actual points at hand. Sad, but really very simple.
You actually attempt to claim that far from deliberately preying upon and perpetuating Arab weakness the USA is merely some good-hearted clumsy giant who can’t help but step on a few lesser creatures. This is a fundamentally dishonest portrayal of how US policy in the Arab world has unfolded IT IS A LIE. CIA sponsored coups don’t inadvertently happen THEY ARE DELIBERATE ACTS you simply cannot honestly claim as you initially tried to that USA has been “careful” not to trample upon other People’s when the exact opposite is the case and the US has gone out of it’s way to step on people.
No; I offered my opinion that because of our hyperpower, even an isolationist foreign policy would eventually have generated terrorism. It’s true that the United States has pursued many self-serving – and ultimately universally detrimental – policies in the Middle East. On the other hand, one must be careful of giving that analysis too much credit. Why? Because our superpower is such that no matter what, the mark of American involvement would be left on the Middle East in terms of political pressures and occasional military intervention. Osama bin Laden bases much of his rhetoric upon the fact that American troops were on Saudi soil – despite the fact that they were there to in part ward off nations such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. We can’t avoid the fact that no matter what, people’s lives will be impacted in ways that serve our agendas. Our economic and political powers are that strong – even without taking into account Cold War and other politics.
What do you call it if not Imperialism?
I was being facetious, because for someone like you, American foreign policy is imperialism – always.
It’s odd that you should say that because you seem to have been trying to do just that, maybe you should try learning from it instead.
I’m not the one arguing that terrorism will go away if only we stopped using oil or began paying whatever is asked of us.
So the US has never overthrown a government on false pretences before and installed a more compliant one? Please enlighten me Kast why is “nation building” so different from all the other times?
First of all, I find no false pretense in George Bush’s justifications for war.

Secondly, I don’t place Iraq on the same level as, say, the Pahlavi experiment in Iran. We’ve been much too restrained – and forgiving – for that.
A laughable argument considering how illegitimate the charges against Hussein have proven, and an insane one considering how we've already stupidly committed ourselves to two wars in the region and are straining our resources as it is.
Do you deny that Iran harbors and supports terrorists? Because, after all, we know they harbored Zarqawi.

Do you deny that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, the details of which it is attempting to withhold? Because, after all, we know the IAEA is now struggling with them.

Do you deny that Iran has biological and chemical weapons? Because, after all, we know they were used and never taken away.

Do you deny that Iran is a threat to the sovereignty of its neighbors? Because, after all, they planted Chalabi.

As for the “committed ourselves to two wars in the region” bit, notice the “if the strategic situation befit it,” genius.
Which is it? How do you reconcile the two (to my understanding at least) contradictory statements?
Oh no, I made a mistake! How will I ever live with myself? :roll: It isn’t as if the reforms in Iran are going anywhere anyway. My point still stands. Especially in their case.
Correction: you don't care about terrorism. You only care about terrorism against Israel or the United States. Of those two, you should only be concerned with one.
Bullshit. If Israel ends tomorrow, or nukes a neighbor, who the hell do you think has to clean up the damn fallout, Wong?
Terrorists hate America, or the World hates America. Because if its the second, your viewpoints is awfully incomplete. If its the first, your viewpoint is a red herring.
I’m saying that terrorism is an expression of resentment for America’s overwhelming influence in its most extreme form.
I think that invading Iran will be one of the biggest mistakes America can make, that may well set it on the route to its downfall as an hyper-power, along with Iraq.

There are other tools available to enforce reform, which America has used in the past. Foreign military aid for example(Egypt).
Let me get this straight: you want to offer military aid to a country that harbors al-Qaeda terrorists to this day?

Face it: there are no tools of the kind that will effect the kinds of changes we seek in Iran. Unless, of course, you think we should be aiding and abetting coup attempts that may or may not result in disaster.
And no such reform movements existed in Oman either. You seem to believe that only in having an American puppet government, or American government itself in control of a nation can political reforms be made. However, America and Britain has both shown that other tools are available. For example, a British expert with the ISS has once stated that terrorism is on its last gasp(1998), as her stated goals of expelling Western influence/presence, Islamic Super-state is no longer attractive to the majority of the civilians, thus, forcing them to resort to violence. He noted that the continued political stability of the ruling governments of Saudi Arabia and other non rogue states in the region, along with the economic transition to a non oil based economy, education of the citizens will ensure that the then Islamic militant movement died out.

Interestingly, this appears to still be the viewpoints of many moderate muslim nations like Malaysia and Pakistan.
Malaysia and Pakistan are also fortunately capable of drawing on resources other than oil, and had some vestige of infrastructure after the end of colonial rule. Both were also less furious battlefields of the Cold War than was the Middle East.

I concur with the British expert when he opines that economic development and secular education – along with the necessary responsible government as a pre-requisite – will help end terrorism, but I’m otherwise of the opinion that terrorism is simply coming into its own as a method of resistance to external influences.

Just because reform made it in Oman doesn’t mean that liberal forces will be capable of overthrowing the Islamist government in Iran before they wreck more havoc. Or that Saudi Arabia will sort out its problems before falling under more terrorist influence in the interim. You may be willing to wait the several decades all this “independent change” will take; I’m not.
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Post by PainRack »

Axis Kast wrote:
I’m saying that terrorism is an expression of resentment for America’s overwhelming influence in its most extreme form.
Then may I say that you are wrong, that the terrorism is merely the expression of militant politics, designed to advance the goal and cause of a latent Arab political movement. The reversal to an Islamic superstate is important, because Al Queda and any number of people believe this is exactly what is required so as to uplift the current state of Arab Muslims against foreigners like the US.

Let me get this straight: you want to offer military aid to a country that harbors al-Qaeda terrorists to this day?

Face it: there are no tools of the kind that will effect the kinds of changes we seek in Iran. Unless, of course, you think we should be aiding and abetting coup attempts that may or may not result in disaster.
I believe Colin Powell said it best, when he said that it would be better for the US to not interfere in Iran internal affairs, as to do so will only further derail domestic reforms.


I concur with the British expert when he opines that economic development and secular education – along with the necessary responsible government as a pre-requisite – will help end terrorism, but I’m otherwise of the opinion that terrorism is simply coming into its own as a method of resistance to external influences.
Terrorism is a policy, however, to say that it is becoming the favoured tool of militant movements is just another red herring. Again, the question is, why is it neccesary for extreme measures by the US, to invade and directly rebuild a nation neccesary to stop terrorism?
Just because reform made it in Oman doesn’t mean that liberal forces will be capable of overthrowing the Islamist government in Iran before they wreck more havoc. Or that Saudi Arabia will sort out its problems before falling under more terrorist influence in the interim. You may be willing to wait the several decades all this “independent change” will take; I’m not.
Unfortunately, I'm not convinced your methods will work any faster, or cost less in money or lives. And by lives, I also mean Arab muslim lives, not just precious Americans.
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Post by frigidmagi »

Because terrorism is aimed at civilans targets. These are not solders but act more like organized crime.

And your terrorist are killing more Arab muslims than Americans in Iraqi and Afghanistan, explain that?

Osama does not have the interest of anyone save himself at heart.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Axis Kast wrote:
A laughable argument considering how illegitimate the charges against Hussein have proven, and an insane one considering how we've already stupidly committed ourselves to two wars in the region and are straining our resources as it is.
Do you deny that Iran harbors and supports terrorists? Because, after all, we know they harbored Zarqawi.
The fact that they "harboured" Zarqawi is altogether a different matter from engaging in warlike acts against the United States or having provided sufficent justification for war. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Do you deny that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, the details of which it is attempting to withhold? Because, after all, we know the IAEA is now struggling with them.
And again, this has no bearing as to whether Iran has threatened the United States sufficently to justify war or is capable of doing so. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Do you deny that Iran has biological and chemical weapons? Because, after all, we know they were used and never taken away.
Weapons they were never proscribed from possessing and which were used against their and our late enemy Iraq and not the United States. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was. Again your argument fails.
Do you deny that Iran is a threat to the sovereignty of its neighbors? Because, after all, they planted Chalabi.
Wrong, stupid. Chalabi planted himself. And by your amorphous definition, we threaten the soverignty of each and every state in the region —doubly so since neocon voices within the present government in Washington are advocating very much the same lunatic course of action you've been yammering over in this and other threads. And furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
As for the “committed ourselves to two wars in the region” bit, notice the “if the strategic situation befit it,” genius.
Trying to hairsplit your way out of your own argument avails you nought, since you allow for no other possibility with the False Dilemmas you've presented as justifications for rank imperialism. And the evidence uncovered has demonstrated that the late war against Iraq was unnecessary and has touched off consequences which are complicating our geopolitical difficulties in the Middle East.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Then may I say that you are wrong, that the terrorism is merely the expression of militant politics, designed to advance the goal and cause of a latent Arab political movement. The reversal to an Islamic superstate is important, because Al Queda and any number of people believe this is exactly what is required so as to uplift the current state of Arab Muslims against foreigners like the US.
And they would not be concerned with uplifting the current state of Arab Muslims vis-à-vis the West via the use of terrorism unless they felt that their current condition was a result of being subjugated by the West. This “latent Arab political movement” is more than a mere domestic reinvention at home; it’s also an aggressive attempt to push out all those viewed as interlopers.
I believe Colin Powell said it best, when he said that it would be better for the US to not interfere in Iran internal affairs, as to do so will only further derail domestic reforms.
Considering that the reformers are being treated to increasing levels of repression on a daily basis, it seems we’ll be waiting a very long time, and given Iran’s growing nuclear program, obviously anti-American agenda, and continued support for al-Qaeda, that’s simply unacceptable.
Terrorism is a policy, however, to say that it is becoming the favoured tool of militant movements is just another red herring. Again, the question is, why is it neccesary for extreme measures by the US, to invade and directly rebuild a nation neccesary to stop terrorism?
Because there isn’t another option. We can’t withdraw to isolation or seek alternative fuels; it’s already been discussed. America’s influence is simply too great, and the wounds we’ve inflicted in the Arab world too fresh to assume that terrorism will go away if only we play by the rules you think are fair. Terrorism is a result of emasculation, and unfortunately, we can’t contain the ripple effects of our own policies any longer. And that’s aside from the fact that the Middle East is either unable or unwilling to stem the problems on its own.
Unfortunately, I'm not convinced your methods will work any faster, or cost less in money or lives. And by lives, I also mean Arab muslim lives, not just precious Americans.
And I could say the same of you. Or can you provide an accurate timeline regarding these changes for the better you insist are on the way, if only we remain patient a short while longer?
The fact that they "harboured" Zarqawi is altogether a different matter from engaging in warlike acts against the United States or having provided sufficent justification for war. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Harboring a terrorist who coordinates strikes against the United States, its armed forces, and its national security interests is a warlike act, you fucking moron. Why the hell do you think we invaded Afghanistan? Unless you want to tell me that you think our war there was unfounded, too.
And again, this has no bearing as to whether Iran has threatened the United States sufficently to justify war or is capable of doing so. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Well, that’s a load of bullshit, considering that Iran apparently fed us intelligence designed to bring us into a bloody counter-insurgency war and has funded terrorists whom it hopes will repeat September 11th.
Weapons they were never proscribed from possessing and which were used against their and our late enemy Iraq and not the United States. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was. Again your argument fails.
Those weapons still have the capability to harm the United States, Deegan. And considering Iran’s belligerent track record when it comes to this country, that isn’t exactly a comforting thought. Iran has made its intentions quite clear over the past several years: it is a deadly enemy of America.
Wrong, stupid. Chalabi planted himself. And by your amorphous definition, we threaten the soverignty of each and every state in the region —doubly so since neocon voices within the present government in Washington are advocating very much the same lunatic course of action you've been yammering over in this and other threads. And furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Chalabi was fed information by Iranian intelligence. He became a tool of Iran against this country.

As for who we’re a threat to, that has nothing to do with the fucking argument. Nor, for that matter, does your bullshit whining about Iraq. I’ve presented the facts, and they prove beyond a doubt that Iran is our enemy.
Trying to hairsplit your way out of your own argument avails you nought, since you allow for no other possibility with the False Dilemmas you've presented as justifications for rank imperialism. And the evidence uncovered has demonstrated that the late war against Iraq was unnecessary and has touched off consequences which are complicating our geopolitical difficulties in the Middle East.
I did not say that we should go to war with Iran tommorrow, numbnuts, but I do advocate launching air strikes against their nuclear research facilities.

And I have created no False Dilemmas whatsoever; in fact, it is you who keep insisting that Iran represents no threat despite their taking the same course of action as Afghanistan before them.

The point is that the example we set in Iraq can be a positive – and hurrying – force for change elsewhere. Simply waiting for that change to occur without our input, however, is self-defeating.
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Post by Andrew J. »

Axis Kast wrote:Because there isn’t another option. We can’t withdraw to isolation or seek alternative fuels; it’s already been discussed. America’s influence is simply too great, and the wounds we’ve inflicted in the Arab world too fresh to assume that terrorism will go away if only we play by the rules you think are fair. Terrorism is a result of emasculation, and unfortunately, we can’t contain the ripple effects of our own policies any longer.
And invading Middle Eastern countries will make them feel less emasculated...how, exactly?
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Post by Axis Kast »

And invading Middle Eastern countries will make them feel less emasculated...how, exactly?
The idea is that invading and restructuring Iraq will speed up the process of reform elsewhere - whereas leaving the situation as it was would have been unacceptable, since reform isn't going to occur on its own.
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Post by Plekhanov »

Axis Kast wrote: Hardly. It’s you accusing me of leaving out all the unnecessary details you just love to push around when you have any discussion involving the United States.
This wasn’t a discussion about the US it was a discussion about the US in relation to the Arab world in which you once again smeared Iran, why is the Shah an “unnecessary detail” in such a discussion other than because it reflects reality rather than fitting neatly into your fantasy world?
It’s PainRack rewording what I’ve written and then presenting it as an indictment against me for reasons I simply cannot fathom. And, finally, it’s Mike Wong building his own little version of reality rather than confronting the actual points at hand. Sad, but really very simple.
Oh I see the problem is entirely with those who constantly misinterpret your great words of wisdom is it? And you say it’s Mike who’s “building his own little version of reality”
No; I offered my opinion that because of our hyperpower, even an isolationist foreign policy would eventually have generated terrorism.
Bullshit you tried to paint a picture of US involvement in the Arab world whilst leaving out any mention of American Imperialism.
It’s true that the United States has pursued many self-serving – and ultimately universally detrimental – policies in the Middle East.
You only admit this now because I gave you no option by pointing out the complete lack of such “unnecessary details” in your initial post.
On the other hand, one must be careful of giving that analysis too much credit. Why? Because our superpower is such that no matter what, the mark of American involvement would be left on the Middle East in terms of political pressures and occasional military intervention.
So in your mind an isolationist foreign policy is one that includes “occasional military intervention”?
Osama bin Laden bases much of his rhetoric upon the fact that American troops were on Saudi soil – despite the fact that they were there to in part ward off nations such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. We can’t avoid the fact that no matter what, people’s lives will be impacted in ways that serve our agendas. Our economic and political powers are that strong – even without taking into account Cold War and other politics.
This has to be one of the most convoluted and least convincing justifications for continued aggressive imperialism in the Arab world I’ve ever heard. You admit that past interventions have been “self-serving – and ultimately universally detrimental” but then argue that you should continue to follow the same policies anyway. Why? Because of the vague ill supported assertion that the US would be the target of terrorism anyway because of it’s “hyperpower”. Do you really believe that shit? Do you really think that if the US hadn’t practically gone out of it’s way over the years to piss of Muslim’s that so many of them would hate America? The mind truly boggles
What do you call it if not Imperialism?
I was being facetious, because for someone like you, American foreign policy is imperialism – always.
How do you know so much about my general opinions on all aspects of US foreign policy so that you feel qualified to make such a sweeping statement about my beliefs? Is it the same voice in your head that tells you about all the WMD in Iraq?
I’m not the one arguing that terrorism will go away if only we stopped using oil or began paying whatever is asked of us.
You aren’t arguing that, I haven’t argued that, so why exactly did you bring it up?
So the US has never overthrown a government on false pretences before and installed a more compliant one? Please enlighten me Kast why is “nation building” so different from all the other times?
First of all, I find no false pretense in George Bush’s justifications for war.
You’ve had your ass handed to you on so many threads on this issue I see no point in indulging your masochistic streak again.
Secondly, I don’t place Iraq on the same level as, say, the Pahlavi experiment in Iran.
So the imposition of a brutal dictator upon the people of Iran was an “experiment” was it? What a charming way you have with words, do tell me Kast what were the results? Did you get much useful data? I’m sure the families of all those tortured and murdered by the Savak would love to know.

Newsflash Kast Iranians aren’t laboratory mice they are people, their lives are just as valuable as anybody else’s and that includes US citizens.
We’ve been much too restrained – and forgiving – for that.
So the US has been winning hearts and minds in Iraq through it’s “restraint and forgiveness” gotcha

You still didn’t answer my question though, just what is so unique about the current adventure in Iraq, how does it fundamentally differ form all the other times the USA (or Britain or any other imperial power) has imposed a more compliant government on a country?
Which is it? How do you reconcile the two (to my understanding at least) contradictory statements?
Oh no, I made a mistake! How will I ever live with myself? :roll:
A revealing mistake though, which shows you are so used to spouting anti-Iranian bullshit that even when forced to admit that they are reforming the next moment you snap right back into spewing neo-con propaganda.
It isn’t as if the reforms in Iran are going anywhere anyway. My point still stands. Especially in their case.
Which of your bullshit points still stands? The one about “Iran is reforming” but we can still invade it “with absolute legitimacy on all of the charges we laid at Saddam Hussein’s feet” . Or your second contradictory point that “there aren’t any progressive reform movements – nor any nascent reform movements" in Iran?

As for the reforms not going anywhere I thought you studied history, have you any idea of how long such movements generally take? Don’t you realise that progress in such matters isn’t steady and smooth but often stalls? Iran has come a long way since 1979 and much further than most people would have expected, despite continual attempts by the US to undermine one of the few self-determining nations in the region.
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Post by Elfdart »

Axis Kast wrote:
And invading Middle Eastern countries will make them feel less emasculated...how, exactly?
The idea is that invading and restructuring Iraq will speed up the process of reform elsewhere - whereas leaving the situation as it was would have been unacceptable, since reform isn't going to occur on its own.
Flawless logic. Middle Easterners resent the US for meddling in their countries. Kast's solution? MORE MEDDLING! :lol:
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Post by Axis Kast »

This wasn’t a discussion about the US it was a discussion about the US in relation to the Arab world in which you once again smeared Iran, why is the Shah an “unnecessary detail” in such a discussion other than because it reflects reality rather than fitting neatly into your fantasy world?
Not “about,” you moron; “involving.” Any time we have a discussion involving the United States, you begin by whining about how it’s entirely Washington’s doing because the government are actually Nazis in disguise, and then proceed to ignore the matter of how to fix what went wrong. A rebel without a cause, if you will.

Secondly, I find it interesting that one could unfairly “smear” Iran while discussing the problem of terrorism in the Middle East given the fact that they are a known safe-haven for al-Qaeda members and have conducted espionage aimed at he United States. Of course, in your book, we should simply ignore this because Iran is little more than a sick, innocent victim at heart, hm?

Third, because I already touched on Arab emasculation, it is unnecessary to list specific grievances one at a time, no matter how much you’d prefer we made a list of all the dirty deeds you want aired.
Oh I see the problem is entirely with those who constantly misinterpret your great words of wisdom is it? And you say it’s Mike who’s “building his own little version of reality”
To put it simply? Yes.
Bullshit you tried to paint a picture of US involvement in the Arab world whilst leaving out any mention of American Imperialism.
Why the fuck else do you think I touched on emasculation and actualization of Arab power, you ass-clown? Just because I don’t point the finger and try to make Nazis out of American politicians doesn’t mean I don’t acknowledge that we’re reaping, in part, what we’ve sown.
You only admit this now because I gave you no option by pointing out the complete lack of such “unnecessary details” in your initial post.
No, you blithering idiot, I’m talking about it because you’re trying to play the blame-game rather than offer any cogent re-imagining of constructive policy.
So in your mind an isolationist foreign policy is one that includes “occasional military intervention”?
No American politician is going to bring us back to the ‘30s, regardless of his opinions about how minimal a role the United States should play in the world. Even were we to pursue Wong’s simple-minded, one-dimensional tack (which, by the way, is still more substantial a proposition than anything you’ve offered thus far), the United States would still be compelled to organize intervention in situations such as the invasion and occupation of Kuwait in 1991.
This has to be one of the most convoluted and least convincing justifications for continued aggressive imperialism in the Arab world I’ve ever heard. You admit that past interventions have been “self-serving – and ultimately universally detrimental” but then argue that you should continue to follow the same policies anyway. Why? Because of the vague ill supported assertion that the US would be the target of terrorism anyway because of it’s “hyperpower”. Do you really believe that shit? Do you really think that if the US hadn’t practically gone out of it’s way over the years to piss of Muslim’s that so many of them would hate America? The mind truly boggles.
The United States hasn’t exactly gone out of its way to piss off Indonesia over the years, but plenty of Indonesians are willing to kill Americans, Plekhanov. The same is true of Pakistanis, with whom we cultivated a strong Cold War relationship. That is the elephant effect. It means that even without having installed people like the Shah in Iran or having sent troops to Beirut during the 1980s, there would still be organizations throughout the world dedicated to the violent rejection of all things Western.

Even an isolationist would be forced to keep a wary eye on the Middle East. All these proposals about “alternative fuel sources” and hydrogen-powered cars aren’t going to pan out without decades of work – and even then, a realistic switch would be gradual in the extreme (immediate restructuring of the global economy being virtually impossible). That means that even without a Cold War, we’d still have sent people into Kuwait to restore the sovereignty of an oil-producing nation. That we’d still have sent troops to Saudi Arabia to preempt another attack on an even more important source of oil. And so on and so on and so forth.
How do you know so much about my general opinions on all aspects of US foreign policy so that you feel qualified to make such a sweeping statement about my beliefs? Is it the same voice in your head that tells you about all the WMD in Iraq?
Because I see what I read, you fucking moron. And if it comes out of your mouth, it might as well have been written in Pravda in 1952.
You aren’t arguing that, I haven’t argued that, so why exactly did you bring it up?
Wong argued that.
So the imposition of a brutal dictator upon the people of Iran was an “experiment” was it? What a charming way you have with words, do tell me Kast what were the results? Did you get much useful data? I’m sure the families of all those tortured and murdered by the Savak would love to know.

Newsflash Kast Iranians aren’t laboratory mice they are people, their lives are just as valuable as anybody else’s and that includes US citizens.
The results of what we did have no bearing on the original plan, fucktard. Iran was an experiment; we installed our own strong man using the CIA and attempted to coordinate his rise to power, whereby he’d become the first “American” proxy in the Middle East and attempt to effect a secular revolution.
So the US has been winning hearts and minds in Iraq through it’s “restraint and forgiveness” gotcha

You still didn’t answer my question though, just what is so unique about the current adventure in Iraq, how does it fundamentally differ form all the other times the USA (or Britain or any other imperial power) has imposed a more compliant government on a country?
This is precisely what I’m talking about when I say that you’re so rabid about America’s faults, you don’t actually address the issues at hand, but instead go off on a tangent. The United States hasn’t gone door-to-door shooting people up like the Baathists, Plekhanov.

As for your question, I have indeed answered it. Iraq isn’t like Iran; we’ve installed a coalition, not a monarch. Iraq isn’t like Lebannon; we sent politicians as well as soldiers. Iraq isn’t like Saudi Arabia; we aren’t negotiating with the old regime. Iraq isn’t like Somalia; we didn’t hunt small fish while ignoring the main problem of how to simultaneously develop a functioning government.
A revealing mistake though, which shows you are so used to spouting anti-Iranian bullshit that even when forced to admit that they are reforming the next moment you snap right back into spewing neo-con propaganda.
Iran’s reform movement has now been barred from effecting legal change. It is far from mustering sufficient support to overthrow a government. It is far from wielding sufficient power to turn Tehran away from backing al-Qaeda, conducting intelligence operations against the United States, and pursuing an atomic energy program outside the bounds of its international commitments. These are immediate problems – immediate threats –, and unfortunately, we don’t have time to sit and hope for a miracle. Plenty of groups opposed Saddam Hussein, too, and they weren’t exactly going anywhere fast, if you catch my drift.
Which of your bullshit points still stands? The one about “Iran is reforming” but we can still invade it “with absolute legitimacy on all of the charges we laid at Saddam Hussein’s feet” . Or your second contradictory point that “there aren’t any progressive reform movements – nor any nascent reform movements" in Iran?

As for the reforms not going anywhere I thought you studied history, have you any idea of how long such movements generally take? Don’t you realise that progress in such matters isn’t steady and smooth but often stalls? Iran has come a long way since 1979 and much further than most people would have expected, despite continual attempts by the US to undermine one of the few self-determining nations in the region.
That’s exactly right. These programs take a long time. And considering the potential fallout of new terrorist attacks like the one on September 11, 2001, that’s an unacceptable risk.
Flawless logic. Middle Easterners resent the US for meddling in their countries. Kast's solution? MORE MEDDLING!
And what’s your plan, if I may ask? Another fatally flawed “keep your hands to yourselves” spin on foreign policy?
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Post by Elfdart »

Why not? It worked before and still works for others.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Why not? It worked before and still works for others.
Worked before when? Before Pearl Harbor?

Aside from the fact that such a policy as you suggest is utterly impossible. Terrorists have already vowed to follow us back to the United States even if we withdraw from Iraq. There isn't any way to turn the past into water under the bridge. Not to mention that restructuring the global economy probably won't take place inside the next forty years, let alone the next five or ten. The cost of turning away from an energy source that has sustained us over a century is simply too great.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Axis Kast wrote:
The fact that they "harboured" Zarqawi is altogether a different matter from engaging in warlike acts against the United States or having provided sufficent justification for war. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Harboring a terrorist who coordinates strikes against the United States, its armed forces, and its national security interests is a warlike act, you fucking moron. Why the hell do you think we invaded Afghanistan? Unless you want to tell me that you think our war there was unfounded, too.
Afganistan was invaded because it was the location of the people who pulled off the WTC strikes and it's joke of a government either would not or could not turn the perpetrators over to face judgement. By contrast, in the last several years, Iran has actually been arresting Al-Qaeda agents and providing cooperation on antiterrorism. The two situations are not the same, no matter how much your addled mind believes otherwise. In point of fact:

Linky

World > Middle East
from the July 28, 2003 edition

Iran holds Al Qaeda's top leaders

Tehran's custody of bin Laden's son and others is a blow to the terrorist organization.

By Faye Bowers
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – While much of the world is focused on US soldiers closing in on Saddam Hussein in Iraq, a much less-noticed but possibly even more important roundup is taking place in Iraq's neighbor to the east, Iran.

The Tehran government is holding several top-level Al Qaeda operatives that, experts say, could lead to the biggest breakthrough in curtailing the organization since the fall of Afghanistan.

Though the Iranians haven't mentioned any names, intelligence officials and press reports indicate they've captured Saad bin Laden, Osama bin Laden's son, who has assumed a leadership role; Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, the Al Qaeda spokesman; and Saif al-Adel, the latest No. 3 who is believed to be in charge of military operations.

Even more significant, according to one Western intelligence official, Tehran is also holding Al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is known as an Islamic fundamentalist intellectual and eloquent speaker for the organization. While some US intelligence sources have expressed doubt that Iran really has Dr. Zawahiri, the European official says Tehran "absolutely" has him.

If so, his capture, along with that of the other top members, would deal a major blow to the terrorist network. "Zawahiri would be an incredible blow," says Stanley Bedlington, a former senior analyst in the CIA's counterterrorism center. "All four of them would be a tremendous blow.... Al Qaeda will continue to rebuild, but it will take a lot of time to get new leadership with those sorts of skills and experience."


Whether Iran will hand them over is another question. The senior Western intelligence official says a European country is involved in negotiating some kind of turnover now. It would be difficult for Iran to directly turn them over to the US for the obvious political considerations: It is an Islamic country named as both a sponsor of terrorism and a member of the "axis of evil" by the US.

Moreover, the US accuses Tehran of trying to develop nuclear weapons and is pressuring it to stop. Conversely, Iran would like the US to stop supporting Mujahideen e-Khalq, a group that opposes the Iranian regime and operates freely in the US.

"I suspect that some Iranians would argue that keeping some of these high-ranking Al Qaeda members incarcerated is a good bargaining chip," says Ali Ansari, a Middle East historian at Durham University in England.

Publicly, both sides are being predictably circumspect at the moment. Iran has only said it is holding a "large number of small- and big-time" Al Qaeda members.

In response, the US has sounded unimpressed, perhaps as means of applying additional pressure. "We have said all along we believe that there were senior members of Al Qaeda that were operating from Iran," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said last week. He noted that the US has made clear that the Iranians - if they are in fact holding the captives rather than harboring them - should deport them to where "they're wanted for crimes, or to their home countries."

The total tally since 9/11

If the US were to gain control of these purported bin Laden lieutenants, it would add significantly to the roster of Al Qaeda members that have been killed or captured in the past two years. Since 9/11, the US and its allies have detained 3,000 Al Qaeda members, and US government officials now say that more than half of Al Qaeda's leadership has been taken out.

That is no doubt hampering Al Qaeda's ability to launch more attacks, they say. Saif al-Adel, for example, is the fourth chief of military operations to be captured or killed since 9/11. Mohammed Atef, the No. 3 at the time of the strikes, was killed during the US bombing of Afghanistan in December 2001. Abu Zubaydah then filled that role, but was captured in Pakistan in March 2002. Then the next military chief, Khalid Sheik Mohammed, was also captured in Pakistan earlier this year.

Still, Al Qaeda has demonstrated an ability to reconstitute in the past and continue to wage attacks. The latest were in May in Saudi Arabia and Morocco, where 79 total were killed, including eight Americans.

"Because Al Qaeda is an insurgent organization, there's always someone to take another's place," says a senior US government official. "He may not be as good as the person who was lost. But the organization is never going to come to a standstill because there is always someone ready to fill vacated posts."

Some 100,000 foot soldiers are now known to have trained at Al Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan before they were destroyed by the US bombing in 2001. Many, up to 20,000, have probably been killed in battles in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Bosnia, or Kashmir. But that leaves 80,000 who probably returned to their homes in Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries, analysts say.

In addition, there have been other terrorist training camps in places like Chechnya, Bosnia, Kashmir, and Lebanon, where Hizbullah - what US officials call the A Team of terrorist groups - have run training camps in the Bekaa Valley since the 1980s.

Who's who of Al Qaeda

Still, the Al Qaeda leaders supposedly being held in Iran include some of the most prominent and well-educated among the group. Zawahiri has been Mr. bin Laden's No. 2 for several years, his personal physician, and closest intellectual sparring partner. He has written several books on fundamental Islam as well as communications for Al Qaeda.

Zawahiri was raised and educated in Cairo, where he became a doctor and a member, and eventually a leader, of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ). He left Egypt in the early 1980s, after serving a three-year sentence for a part in the assassination of Egypt's President Anwar Sadat. He then made his way to Afghanistan, where he dedicated his medical services to the Afghan mujahideen fighting the former Soviet Union. He later united his wing of EIJ with Al Qaeda.

"Zawahiri is a very important thinker and writer," the intelligence official says. "His pen is going to be missed."

Mr. Adel, also known as Mohammed Makkawi, is also a former member of EIJ, and he served as a colonel in the Egyptian Army's special forces. Adel is believed to have trained and fought the tribal fighters who ambushed and killed the 18 US Army Rangers in Mogadishu in 1993. He helped plan the 1998 attacks on the US Embassies in Africa, and he was a key planner of the 2000 attack on the USS Cole. Moreover, he is believed to be part of a tactical alliance between Al Qaeda and Hizbullah.

Saad bin Laden is one of Osama bin Laden's oldest sons, believed to be in his early 30s and a rising star in Al Qaeda. Officials say he has provided financial and logistical support for several operations, including the April 11, 2002, bombing of a synagogue in Tunisia that killed 19 people.

Sulaiman Abu Ghaith is a Kuwaiti, who was a teacher of Islamic studies, an imam, and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Kuwait eventually suspended him from religious activities for criticizing the government. He spent two months in Bosnia in 1994, where he fought with Muslim forces. He then returned to Kuwait. After the start of US strikes on Afghanistan in 2001, Abu Ghaith appeared on Al Jazeera as an Al Qaeda spokesman.

• Michael Theodoulou contributed to this report.
And:

Linky
Iran ready for al-Qaeda deal

FAYE BOWERS IN WASHINGTON

IRAN is preparing to strike a deal with America to hand over Osama bin Laden’s two top acolytes in return for its removal from US President George Bush’s "axis of evil".

According to European diplomats involved in talks with the Iranians about the country’s development of nuclear technology, its government sees the dozen senior members of al-Qaeda and 50 fighters living there as a way to win concessions from the US.

Iran wants the Americans to accept it can build nuclear power stations and for the US to clamp down on a rebel movement, Mujahideen-e-Khalq, which is seeking to overthrow the Islamic republic. The rebels have had offices in the US - despite being named on the State Department’s list of terrorist organisations - and it continues to operate freely in Iraq.

The thaw in feelings towards Washington became apparent when officials from Germany, France and Britain negotiated Iran’s agreement to allow inspection of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

A European government official with knowledge of those meetings said it was clear the al-Qaeda issue was on the table.


Members of the terrorist network in Iran include Osama bin Laden’s son Saad bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri and Saif al-Adel, respectively second and third in command, according to European, Saudi Arabian and US government sources.

Up to a dozen "serious al-Qaeda members" are also there along with some 50 foot soldiers and family members, making a total group of about 300.

Iran has been unwilling to have a handover previously, the European official said, because "the al-Qaeda members provide Iran with a bargaining chip".

The official added that if the US met Iran’s conditions it would be prepared to hand over the al-Qaeda members to their countries of origin, which is Egypt in most cases, a country which has been co-operating with the war on terror. The terrorists would then be handed over to the US or made available for interrogation.

There are growing signs that a fragile working relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and superpower US is beginning to develop. In the latest positive development, Iran attended a meeting in Madrid of countries considering making donations to help the reconstruction of Iraq.


Adel al-Jubeir, foreign affairs adviser to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah, said: "With the Iranians having worked through the nuclear issue, the temperature may drop sufficiently to where this issue can become resolvable.

"Our position is they should be handed over to their countries of origin, and I believe eventually they will be handed over."

Experts say the chance to repair US-Iranian relations has not been so good for decades.

Judith Yaphe, a specialist on the Middle East at the National Defence University in Washington, said: "Everything is negotiable. The Iranians may be signalling a willingness to put everything on the table."

The 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran saw 52 Americans taken hostage inside the US Embassy in Tehran and held for 444 days. But, after years of hostility, there have been talks and exchanges at various levels over the past few years and a reform movement in Iran has gained momentum.

In January last year, President Bush labelled Iran a member of the "axis of evil" along with Iraq and North Korea, and after last May’s terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh, the US broke off talks with Iran on all levels.

US officials, including Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, accused Iran of harbouring al-Qaeda members who took part in those attacks. "There’s no question that there are al-Qaeda in Iran," Rumsfeld said. "Countries that are harbouring those terrorist networks and providing a haven for them are behaving as terrorists by so doing."

Iranian officials issued a public denial but later admitted their presence.

Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, travelled to Iran during the summer in an attempt to negotiate the return of Saudi members of al-Qaeda. Another Saudi delegation spent two weeks there later, but the Saudi nationals were not returned.

"The majority of them aren’t Saudis," said al-Jubeir, the foreign affairs adviser. "Most of the names I have seen tend to be from the Egyptian wing of al-Qaeda."

It would be politically unthinkable for Iran to surrender the al-Qaeda group directly into American custody, but finding a third party willing to act as an intermediary is thought to be an acceptable compromise.

The governments of Muslim countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Sudan, Jordan, Morocco and Yemen have all detained al-Qaeda members since September 11 despite the considerable antipathy towards America felt by many of their citizens.

Egypt has been interrogating low-grade al-Qaeda suspects on behalf of American authorities: al-Qaeda militants secretly rounded up in Sudan have been flown there for questioning.

After senior al-Qaeda figure Anas al-Liby, one of America’s "most wanted", was caught in Sudan in February 2002, the US authorities ensured he was sent to Egypt.

Its leaders had good reasons to fear both al-Liby and al-Qaeda, as he was wanted for allegedly plotting the murder of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 1995.

The capture of al-Zawahiri and al-Adel in particular would be a major coup for the Americans.

Despite its ongoing concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme, the US will be tempted to accept the IAEA deal brokered by Europe and make a deal that would secure its greatest triumph over al-Qaeda since the invasion of Afghanistan.

A version of this story first appeared in the Christian Science Monitor

A NATION STILL RIVEN BY INFIGHTING

IRAN was declared an Islamic republic in 1979 when its monarchy was overthrown and a unique Islamic republic was declared and religious clerics - led by Ayatollah Khomeini - seized ultimate political control. The eight-year war with Iraq proved a massive drain on the country and its income from vast oil reserves dwindled. However, in 2000 political liberals won a landslide victory over the long-ruling conservative party in parliamentary elections, ushering in a spate of reforms.

President Mohammad Khatami has become popular among young voters in particular by introducing greater social and political freedoms. But he often comes up against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, left, and hardliners reluctant to compromise on established Islamic traditions. One of Khatami’s biggest achievements was to establish a free press, but this has proved to be a major battleground with the religious right. Some pro-reform journals have been shutdown with reformist writers and editors jailed by the judiciary. Khatami and parliament appear to be unable to intervene.
All that above says you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
And again, this has no bearing as to whether Iran has threatened the United States sufficently to justify war or is capable of doing so. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Well, that’s a load of bullshit, considering that Iran apparently fed us intelligence designed to bring us into a bloody counter-insurgency war and has funded terrorists whom it hopes will repeat September 11th.
The evidence of a budding rapproachment between Washington and Tehran above says you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
Weapons they were never proscribed from possessing and which were used against their and our late enemy Iraq and not the United States. Furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was. Again your argument fails.
Those weapons still have the capability to harm the United States, Deegan. And considering Iran’s belligerent track record when it comes to this country, that isn’t exactly a comforting thought. Iran has made its intentions quite clear over the past several years: it is a deadly enemy of America.
The evidence of a budding rapproachment between Washington and Tehran above says you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
Wrong, stupid. Chalabi planted himself. And by your amorphous definition, we threaten the soverignty of each and every state in the region —doubly so since neocon voices within the present government in Washington are advocating very much the same lunatic course of action you've been yammering over in this and other threads. And furthermore, whatever is occuring in Iran has no bearing on the lack-of-threat Iraq was.
Chalabi was fed information by Iranian intelligence. He became a tool of Iran against this country.
Chalabi was and is a liar and an opportunist who did whatever was required to make a quick buck, and the Iranians main objective was to have Saddam Hussein removed from the chessboard. It's hardly Chalabi's fault that Team Bush were stupid enough to play right into their hands.
As for who we’re a threat to, that has nothing to do with the fucking argument. Nor, for that matter, does your bullshit whining about Iraq. I’ve presented the facts, and they prove beyond a doubt that Iran is our enemy.
Your paranoid delusions and half-baked selective readings are not "facts". And the evidence of a budding rapproachment between Washington and Tehran above says you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
Trying to hairsplit your way out of your own argument avails you nought, since you allow for no other possibility with the False Dilemmas you've presented as justifications for rank imperialism. And the evidence uncovered has demonstrated that the late war against Iraq was unnecessary and has touched off consequences which are complicating our geopolitical difficulties in the Middle East.
I did not say that we should go to war with Iran tommorrow, numbnuts, but I do advocate launching air strikes against their nuclear research facilities.
You are fucking insane.
And I have created no False Dilemmas whatsoever; in fact, it is you who keep insisting that Iran represents no threat despite their taking the same course of action as Afghanistan before them.
The evidence of a budding rapproachment between Washington and Tehran above says you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
The point is that the example we set in Iraq can be a positive – and hurrying – force for change elsewhere. Simply waiting for that change to occur without our input, however, is self-defeating.
No, the point is that the United States knocked over a tinpot banana republic which was no threat to anybody and as a result has mired itself in a guerilla war it never needed to be mired in and which has fueled Al-Qaeda's membership pledge drive in ways they could not have dreamed of had we pursued a policy with some measure of sanity behind it. Such is an example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln

People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House

Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
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Augustus
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Post by Augustus »

Please pardon the tardiness of my reply, RL does intrude from time to time.
Patrick Degan wrote: I think you're trying too hard to project Western-think upon non-Western minds. The idea that Al-Qaeda wants us engaged against them indefinitely with the Middle East as the battleground makes little sense from an Islamic perspective.
Is it your contention here that "non-western" minds are fundamentally different from "western" ones?

If so I have to disagree with you. Having worked overseas in the Middle East and Africa and making several close acquaintances in the Sudan, and the UAE, I would say the value system may be different but the thought processes are the same.

Al Qaeda doesn't make sense from an Islamic perspective either. That’s why I'm arguing it is a "political" entity first and foremost.

Patrick Degan wrote:These people aren't Chicago-style ward heelers.
Sorry I missed this ref. Would you mind explaining it please?
Patrick Degan wrote:I must point out again that Al-Qaeda had no existence before our large-scale intrusion into regional affairs over and beyond our longtime support for the corrupt shiekdoms which have ruled those countries allied to us in the region.
Actually Al Qaeda's origins are more appropriately traced back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Carter Administrations decision to begin funding the mujahidin through Pakistan. A process started by Zbigniew Brzezinski, Carter's National Security Adviser and then amped up under Reagan's first term. But there is enough blame to go around on all sides of the political spectrum in every Administration since.
Patrick Degan wrote:To them, the conflict against America has nothing to do with cynical manipulation of the lumpen masses. Their object is not to wield political influence but to overthrow secular/Western corruption altogether.
What do you offer as proof of this? Al Qaeda's operational doctrine was laid out in the early 80's, when groups of highly motivated were recruited to fight in Afghanistan against the Soviets. Religon was used as a tool of the recruiters to offer a justification for jihad against the communists in exactly the same way it is used today against Americans.

Ultimately religon is just a poltical tool and has always been. Beacuse Al Qaeda is a political organisation it has simply adopted the religous language to drive recruitment, in the same fashion that was established in the 80's to recruit mujahidin.

But that same religous language has nothing to do with their actual goals. If Al Qaeda's goal is to get the US to leave the Middle East alone so that an Arab Super State can be founded by overthrowing regiems influenced by "secular/Western corruption" then everything they have done from the 93 WTC Bomings, to the Kenya Embassy Bombings, to the USS Cole, to 911, to Iraq has had exactly the opposite effect. You would think they'd have noticed this by now?

Everything leading up to 911 was an attempt to get our attention, and draw us in deeper than we already were. Anything they are going to do requires us to be there.
Patrick Degan wrote:Their focus is upon America because it is Americans who are perceived as the imperial intruders into their lands —not the Russians or the Chinese, who have neither the capacity or the intent to intervene in Middle East affairs...
I mentioned the Russians, and Chinese simply because if they had as much at stake for stablitly in the Middle East then they would be the target. If it wasnt the US it would be someone else (insert Generic Superpower here). Besides all world powers historically speaking have a broad streak of Imperialism in them.
Patrick Degan wrote:... nor have any particular stake in the existence of Israel. And as has been pointed out, it really is not possible to seperate Israel from any discussion of American policy in the Middle East or how it helps drive anti-American sentiment.
Israel I believe is irrelivant to the discussion. Apart from using their existance (thank you very much UN) as a recruiting tool they have done exactly zero to harrass Israel. If Al Qaeda was focused on striking Israel you would have thought that the destruction of the Shalom Meir Tower in Tel Aviv would have made a useful satement for "free Palestine", and logistically to would have been simplier for Al Qaeda to hit as well.

The reason I wanted to leave Israel out of the discussion was that its a dead end. The US will under no circumstances abandon an Ally, policy and politics will not allow it, regardless of its morality, right or not. Further, if Israel disappeared off the map tomorrow it would not change the US's overwhealming need to impose stability on the Middle East.
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