It has begun.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2003-06-13 11:43pm

Suppression of the Iranian dissent has commenced.

So, will the clerics succeed in holding power autocratically for the time-being, or is this going to provoke an even greater response from the Iranian people?

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2003-06-13 11:46pm

depends on how far they are pushed.

Crown · Post by **Crown** » 2003-06-13 11:46pm

It depends, I haven't clicked the link yet, but I am assuming that it is vigilanty hardliner supporters and not the Police/Military. Either way though, Iran looks like a powdercake at the moment.

In the long run, the Ayatollahs can't win. With 70% of the population under 30 years of age, their troubles will only get worse if they play their cards too heavy handed...

Honestly though, predicting these things is like picking the winning lottery number. I just don't know.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2003-06-13 11:51pm

To quote, for the lazy:

Militia attack Tehran protesters

It was the fourth night of protests
Security forces and hardline supporters of Iran's conservative leadership have clashed with large crowds in the capital Tehran who were protesting against clerical rule.
Tear gas, clubs, and iron bars were used to disperse the protesters.

Hardline vigilantes were seen pulling people from cars and beating them. Gunfire was also heard.

Saturday morning's demonstrations were the fourth consecutive night of protests about the slow pace of reform in the country.

The Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had warned demonstrators they would be shown no pity if they continued their protests.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2003-06-13 11:52pm

I put it at 3:1 the current regime survives a year.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-06-13 11:55pm

I expect this will be swiftly crushed and nothing more will come of it, at least for a few more years until the collages have all new classes. Last I heard these protests had only had around a thousand people in them, and I cant see that escalating into the tens and hundreds of thousands needed to collapse the regime.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2003-06-13 11:57pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:I expect this will be swiftly crushed and nothing more will come of it, at least for a few more years until the collages have all new classes. Last I heard these protests had only had around a thousand people in them, and I cant see that escalating into the tens and hundreds of thousands needed to collapse the regime.

I'm thinking more of the 9 July anniversary of the suppression of the students in 1999. If this crackdown is not thorough, swift, and violent, and results in the government establishing itself as very firmly in control of the situation, I suspect that on 9 July we're going to see something interesting, or at least something that could become interesting.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-06-14 04:50am

Special forces storm students dorms wounding tens of students SMCCDI (Information Service) June 13, 2003

The Islamic republic's elite forces stormed late this evening the Chamran and Kashan student dorms by firing bullets and tear gas into the building and beating anyone on their way.

Tens of students are injured and arrested as they opposed an inequal resistance by chanting the "Oh Iran" banned anthem and shouting "Freedom, Freedom".

Their voices were estinguished with the regime's forces clubs and chains.

Most doors are broken and windows and materials are destroyed by savage plainclothes men insulting in arabic.

These are the Palestinian, Iraqi and Lebanese mercenaries of the regime known for their crualty.

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2003-06-14 04:59am

Enforcer Talen wrote:I put it at 3:1 the current regime survives a year.

I say the odds favor the Ayatollah for the moment. Apart from the studends and some fundie nuts, the populace of Iran is gripped with a strong apathy towards politics. Reform takes place very slowly because the typical Iranian just doesn't care.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-06-14 04:11pm

Things will die down, and in a month or two it will just start up again.

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2003-06-14 04:26pm

As I said on SB.com, I think that this will add to the dissatisfaction against the government, but not in itself lead to revolution against the Ayatollah.

Setzer · Post by **Setzer** » 2003-06-14 04:30pm

The Iranians use mercs? Idiots. Remember The Prince, and the book's warnings against mercenaries. If someone can show me an online text, I'll repost it here.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2003-06-14 09:09pm

Its 1978 all over again, and this time the US is going to back the winning team.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-06-14 10:11pm

I don't possibly see what the US has to gain by backing the Ayatollah, and I doubt the seeds of revolution have been planted firmly enough for the Supersecret American Intelligence Community to back the reformists.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2003-06-14 10:53pm

Setzer wrote:The Iranians use mercs? Idiots. Remember The Prince, and the book's warnings against mercenaries. If someone can show me an online text, I'll repost it here.

mercenary takeover?

UltraViolence83 · Post by **UltraViolence83** » 2003-06-14 11:24pm

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:I say the odds favor the Ayatollah for the moment. Apart from the studends and some fundie nuts, the populace of Iran is gripped with a strong apathy towards politics. Reform takes place very slowly because the typical Iranian just doesn't care.

Sounds like a political census of the general American population. If we keep not giving a shit, the fundies and/or goosesteppers will eventually take over this fine nation. And there is no WAY I'm ever going to pay respect to Ashcroft and his fellow insane nuts.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2003-06-14 11:30pm

thats what I was thinking.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-06-15 01:13am

Setzer wrote:The Iranians use mercs? Idiots. Remember The Prince, and the book's warnings against mercenaries. If someone can show me an online text, I'll repost it here.

They have to: their own people won't do their bidding.