US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Formless »

Jub wrote: 2022-11-15 01:29pmYes, if I didn't believe so I'd have done a low level format of my drives and freshly reinstalled windows and the other programs I use.
Okay, now I don't trust your computer. Congrats.

The problem is, malware infections aren't always that obvious. In fact, they rarely are. Botnets, for instance, famously try to remain unnoticed until the planned attack date, and many of the most famous cyberattacks in history infected their targets long in advance of the attack going life through trojans and the like. If we had online voting and another country wanted to disrupt the election cycle, the obvious way to do it is to infect everyone's computers long in advance and lull everyone into thinking they are safe... until election day, when their computers would be programmed to override whatever ballot you intended to submit with a fake ballot the hackers want to steal the election with. Or anything like that. Or perhaps the manufacturer has accidentally left a backdoor in the architecture of the OS or even the chipset that either they haven't discovered, or were secretly asked to put there by a government-- we know accidents happen, and IIRC the latter has been proven in some past incidents. The nature of cybersecurity is reactive; the only prediction we can make is that new attacks will come as a surprise.
I'm less confident there, but the issue is hardly unsolvable. You could make it so that smart phones have a legally required dumb web browsing mode stored in ROM and then have your biometrics stored server side as part of being a registered voter.
What you are asking for is never going to happen. That "dumb browsing mode" would itself become a major security threat, precisely because those biometrics are valuable and vulnerable. If it can be used to identify the person who voted, it can become an avenue for voter intimidation attacks. Remember, we aren't just talking about cybersecurity, but election security. The whole election system has to be secure, and we don't want the machines to be a weak link that enables more traditional forms of election fraud.
Signatures would only be useful if every ballot was checked against recent known good signature samples. Given that we know not every ballot will be checked and that samples of signatures won't be available to those counting ballots your signature is far, far less secure than a fingerprint or retinal scan.
Then you know nothing about the science of either biometrics or forgery detection. Do you have any idea how flawed fingerprinting, the oldest biometric in the science, has turned out to be? You not only have similar looking fingerprints to your parents and siblings, but because skin loses elasticity over time, they won't look the same now as they will when you are in your 50's or 60's or 70's.

Meanwhile, retinal biometrics are obviously problematic because some people don't have eyeballs. And those that do can have their retinal signature change as a result of various illnesses like glaucoma, diabetes, retinal degenerative disorders (self explanatory), detachment of the retina due to injury or disease, and cataracts. Measurement accuracy can also be thrown off by something as simple as an astigmatism. If you can get beyond all of those hurdles, then in theory its more reliable than fingerprinting. But the equipment to get a retinal scan is much more expensive, and getting that signature would be perceived by the public as much more invasive and threatening, which is the last thing anyone in this country wants, especially minority voters. From a privacy standpoint, biometrics only serve to make people feel less confident in the government, less safe. It serves to create more voter suppression and disenfranchisement, not less.
How does this scale to permanent space habitation beyond low orbit? Do you renounce your vote while a certain distance from Earth or should we look into other methods because John Q Public doesn't want his biomarkers on file?
IMO, once we start colonizing space, in the long run we have to start considering the possibility of letting the colonists make their own governments separate from Earthly nations. Let them elect their own officials who can better decide how to handle issues unique to space and other planets, like water rights, air rights, colony building and expansion, etc. We are a long way away from having to worry about the O'Neil/Gundam future, however, and in the short term we already let astronauts vote through basically an absentee ballot handled by NASA. Guess what, its easy to prove that a ballot submitted by an astronaut on the ISS is who they say they are, because there is only about a dozen ballots submitted from space every year. Its not a hard problem in the slightest for now.

Jub wrote: 2022-11-15 01:30pmDo you actually believe that even a plurality of voters make an informed choice about every position they vote for?
Believe it or not, yes, because I understand most people just leave the parts of the ballot they don't know anything about blank rather than casting a vote on those issues. Hell, most people probably just vote on the Federal officials and leave the rest blank; they come first on most ballots. Put a pin on that thought. I know that's what I do on the judicial elections and a lot of the county level bureaucratic positions. I mean, we can only vote a judge out of office, we don't get to put them on the bench in the first place. And we don't get to see the judiciary's party affiliation on the ballot either. When I see a party listing for the county offices, I often do vote along party lines, because I know the local politics are actually informed by that and can have dramatic effects on people's lives, even if its on the small scale of my local city or county. This year we were voting on the county treasurer, and there were three candidates: a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian. Naturally I voted Democrat, because I want to create an environment where the Republican Party cannot so much as win even a local election, and of course I voted against the Libertarian because NO ONE wants a Libertarian as Treasurer if they know what Libertarians stand for. And yes, while third parties like the Libertarians rarely win at the Federal level, they absolutely have a chance in a county election. So its important to always vote against the Libertarians, lest you want your city to become the next Colorado Springs.

Voting along party lines isn't necessarily a bad thing, and besides, in a lot of the countries you are comparing to, they elect an entire government on a single ticket anyway. Its the same thing, except explicit, and has fewer valid choices for a voter to make, so if you don't like who they have listed as Treasurer but you like the guy they are submitting for, I dunno, Secretary of State, what are you to do? You don't get to say "I don't like your treasurer, so I'm not voting for him", in that case you don't get the good Secretary of State because you have to vote for a different party altogether. The only mitigating factor is that most of those countries have Ranked Preference or Single Transferable Vote systems in place to reduce the problem of a two party system the US has, making your choices more impactful in other ways. And also Votes of No Confidence can spontaneously spur on an election, which is one aspect of British democracy I envy. I think that Republicanism (the proper philosophy, and not the philosophy of the Republican party) is inherently inferior to Direct Democracy in all ways except practical implementation. Hence my question. It wasn't just snark.

I want the vote to represent the will of the people as closely as possible, so having more options on the ballot is better than having fewer IMO. This includes moving towards fractional, single transferrable, or ranked preference systems of voting, but also having more control over which officials are elected rather than fewer. In my state we even get to vote on Citizens Initiatives which can change the State's very constitution; and indeed, the longest part of the ballot here is all the new laws proposed by both that and the State legislature. Yeah, some categories of law can only be proposed by the state legislature, but ultimately the voters have the right of final approval. Legislative changes are longer because they have to spell out the basics of what the law will do. And bear in mind, part of the reason that American ballots are so complicated is that you are voting in multiple levels of government at any given time. You get a say in your city, your county, your state, and your Federal government all at once. Of course its going to be complicated. But its not really that complex. Federal officials come first, then State officials, then county, and city ballots may even be on a separate ballot if its mail in. FYI, my state sends every registered voter a complimentary mail in ballot, you don't have to ask for one. I personally attribute this as part of the reason its a purple state despite being surrounded by red. Mail in ballots massively help voter turnout. And why I think we should prioritize eliminating voter disenfranchisement and voter suppression problems before considering how much should actually be on the ballot. A well organized ballot just isn't that hard to follow or that intimidating, IMO. Having polling stations close at 5:00 PM on the other hand is just plain evil.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Broomstick »

Broomstick wrote: 2022-11-15 04:43pmUm.... how about we actually get to "permanent space habitation beyond low orbit" before we expend time, money, and energy worrying about that one?
Jub wrote: 2022-11-15 05:25pmIf you wait that long you won't have a robust and capable system in place when it happens. Just because you've grown used to the US rolling out technology piecemeal, state-by-state, and long after its needed doesn't mean that should be the way of things.
I was thinking more along the lines of fixing what we have down here on Earth first before we start trying to export problems out into space.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Formless »

Broomstick wrote: 2022-11-15 04:43pmUm.... how about we actually get to "permanent space habitation beyond low orbit" before we expend time, money, and energy worrying about that one?
I mean, hell, by the time we can do this we might well have AI, brain-in-a-vat technology, mind uploads, and other futuristic considerations that make biometrics a moot and obsolete point to be arguing about.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Ralin »

bilateralrope wrote: 2022-11-15 01:27pm
How many US elections (in any district) can you name where voting a straight party ticket would be less effective at advancing whatever positions the voter supports than voting some other way ?
Yeah, and does that not strike you as something of a problem? Theoretically both parties should have their pros and cons on different issues because otherwise why even bother having more than one?
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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I'd say that's more a problem with two party systems and single party systems being functionally identical in more ways than we care to admit than with parties voting in blocs (see also the Overton Window theory). And the reason we have a two party state is a byproduct of our election method being strict FPTP while everyone else uses some kind of ranked preference voting method, which is how Britain can have four relevant parties at any given moment. If you have any idea how to make a country with no political parties, I would love to hear about it.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Formless wrote: 2022-11-16 01:40am If you have any idea how to make a country with no political parties, I would love to hear about it.
Have one group that's in charge of everything and doesn't call itself a party.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by madd0c0t0r2 »

Formless wrote: 2022-11-16 01:40am I'd say that's more a problem with two party systems and single party systems being functionally identical in more ways than we care to admit than with parties voting in blocs (see also the Overton Window theory). And the reason we have a two party state is a byproduct of our election method being strict FPTP while everyone else uses some kind of ranked preference voting method, which is how Britain can have four relevant parties at any given moment. If you have any idea how to make a country with no political parties, I would love to hear about it.
The UK Westminster house of commons does have strict FPTP doesn't it?. Admittedly, the president is a king, and the house of lords is different, and the devolved nations are different. so you know what, I'm going to shut up and drink my coffee
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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madd0c0t0r2 wrote: 2022-11-16 03:46amThe UK Westminster house of commons does have strict FPTP doesn't it?. Admittedly, the president is a king, and the house of lords is different, and the devolved nations are different. so you know what, I'm going to shut up and drink my coffee
...okay, apparently I'm misremembering how the British system works, in fact looking closer reveals that many of the same problems appear in Britain but for some reason to a lesser degree than here in the States. Why Britain manages to have more prominent minority parties I will have to look into; maybe it has to do with the weird "four countries under one nation" setup that the US lacks.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by AniThyng »

Formless wrote: 2022-11-16 04:35am
madd0c0t0r2 wrote: 2022-11-16 03:46amThe UK Westminster house of commons does have strict FPTP doesn't it?. Admittedly, the president is a king, and the house of lords is different, and the devolved nations are different. so you know what, I'm going to shut up and drink my coffee
...okay, apparently I'm misremembering how the British system works, in fact looking closer reveals that many of the same problems appear in Britain but for some reason to a lesser degree than here in the States. Why Britain manages to have more prominent minority parties I will have to look into; maybe it has to do with the weird "four countries under one nation" setup that the US lacks.
Isn't it because UK party whips are much stricter so you end up with 3 major parties+ a strong regional one, while in the US the Dems and GOP are actually much more diverse once you look past the party line, no? You see the same in Canada as well.

And it's still between labor and the Tories who forms the government, the lib dems are a spoiler but not that strong. And the SNP and Bloc Quebecois are regional
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Regional parties aren't really a thing here? Well, they kind of are, but all the ones I've heard of are just subsets of well known third parties like the Greens or the Libertarians. The fact we elect officials individually gives politicians the option to simply run as an independent if they want to. Usually because they tried running in the Republican or Democrat primaries and lost, but still want a shot anyway.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Wales has Plaid Cymru, Scotland has the SNP, the latter is way more influential than the former. The Lib Dems have fallen a long way from being the kingmakers of 2010, took them several elections to get back into double-digits after being all but wiped out in 2015, they've got 14 at the moment vs 57 of 2010, out of the 650 available seats.

The official website shows how many parties currently have active MPs, including several I'd never heard of before.

And Trump has announced his candidacy for 2024, watching him crash and burn going up against DeSantis for the nomination is gonna be fun :twisted:
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Formless wrote: 2022-11-16 05:47am Regional parties aren't really a thing here? Well, they kind of are, but all the ones I've heard of are just subsets of well known third parties like the Greens or the Libertarians. The fact we elect officials individually gives politicians the option to simply run as an independent if they want to. Usually because they tried running in the Republican or Democrat primaries and lost, but still want a shot anyway.
West Virginia has/had the MOUNTAIN Party, but I'm not sure if it was Green Party, Libertarians or what. I didn't see any of their candidates this last ballot, so it might have gone tits-up.

The problem with the US is we've had some variation of the "TWO PARTY SYSTEM" for probably as long as we've had the Constitution, especially after they started running President/Vice President as one ticket. For the first few Elections, the President was the one who won, and the Vice President the runner-up. See the life of Aaron Burr for how that worked out for him.

But it boils down to the fact that for centuries it's been Two Party, with only a few outliers like the Bull Moose Party making headlines, so the American Public is brainwashed/trained to see only the Traditional Two. Thus, Third Party/Independents are ignored by the general populace outside of the local town elections, where you're not voting for the Party, you're voting for Johnny who you've known since he was in school and know he'll do a good job.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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LadyTevar wrote: 2022-11-17 03:00pmThe problem with the US is we've had some variation of the "TWO PARTY SYSTEM" for probably as long as we've had the Constitution, especially after they started running President/Vice President as one ticket. For the first few Elections, the President was the one who won, and the Vice President the runner-up. See the life of Aaron Burr for how that worked out for him.

But it boils down to the fact that for centuries it's been Two Party, with only a few outliers like the Bull Moose Party making headlines, so the American Public is brainwashed/trained to see only the Traditional Two. Thus, Third Party/Independents are ignored by the general populace outside of the local town elections, where you're not voting for the Party, you're voting for Johnny who you've known since he was in school and know he'll do a good job.
Minor Counterpoint: George Washington was elected for as long as he felt like it and rather vociferous in his opposition to party politics, so while it's been happening for a while I wouldn't say exactly that long.

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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Raw Shark wrote: 2022-11-19 03:19am Minor Counterpoint: George Washington was elected for as long as he felt like it and rather vociferous in his opposition to party politics, so while it's been happening for a while I wouldn't say exactly that long.
And we are VERY LUCKY that George Washington decided the US did NOT need the precedent of "President for Life", and respectfully stepped down after two terms.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Highlord Laan »

Well, the stripper officially won in Colorado. If anything, her showing has provided a good map showing which people should be declared too stupid to be allowed to breed.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Do you mean Lauren Boebert? I've noticed that whenever a woman is named Lauren, she's always hot. Just from glancing at her Wikipedia entry it's clear her beauty is her only virtue :banghead:
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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Huh, imgur was crowing over her defeat right after the election. That she's won after all isn't getting a peep.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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WASHINGTON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Nancy Pelosi, the trailblazing Democrat who as the first woman U.S. House of Representatives speaker shepherded landmark legislation and led two impeachments, said on Thursday she will give up her leadership role a day after Republicans secured control of the chamber.

Pelosi's allies quickly rallied around Representative Hakeem Jeffries as her likely successor as the top House Democrat while Republicans prepared to install a speaker from their party who is expected to impede President Joe Biden's legislative agenda. Her replacement will have to unite fractious House Democrats torn between centrists and an increasingly vocal left flank.

An 82-year-old California liberal, Pelosi made her announcement during a speech on the House floor - drawing applause from Democrats even as many Republicans decided not to attend. She said she will not retire from the House but continue to represent San Francisco as she has done for 35 years.

"For me, the hour's come for a new generation to lead the Democratic caucus that I so deeply respect. And I'm grateful that so many are ready and willing to shoulder this awesome responsibility," said Pelosi, who has served as the top House Democrat for two decades and speaker from 2007-2011 and again from 2019 until the present.
Pelosi is retiring from the House Democratic Caucus.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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LadyTevar wrote: 2022-11-19 01:01pm And we are VERY LUCKY that George Washington decided the US did NOT need the precedent of "President for Life", and respectfully stepped down after two terms.
Why do you think that's lucky?
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Batman »

Because that precedent could've encouraged other presidents to follow through with it, Like Raygun, Both Bushes, or especially the orange Disaster?
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Ralin »

Batman wrote: 2022-11-19 11:41pm Because that precedent could've encouraged other presidents to follow through with it, Like Raygun, Both Bushes, or especially the orange Disaster?
Bush wasn't popular enough and probably wouldn't have wanted to anyway, Trump couldn't manage to get elected a second time and the one time we had a president who actually broke that precedent he's widely agreed to have been one of the best in our history. So no, not seeing the issue.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

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To add to Ralin's point about FDR, a new president (Garner or Wilkie most likely) elected in 1940 would not have had anywhere near his clout (assuming they even had his inclination) when it came to dealing with the lead up to the US's entry to WW2.

Artificially limiting time in the job because an eighteenth century slave enthusiast did it is pointless. If voters don't want someone to run for a third term, they can vote for someone else.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by AniThyng »

Refresh my memory, how powerful are party whips in the US? Are there any penalties for reps voting across the aisle?
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Highlord Laan »

AniThyng wrote: 2022-11-20 08:29am Refresh my memory, how powerful are party whips in the US? Are there any penalties for reps voting across the aisle?
Not official or legal ones. Were one to break with their party, they'd be undercut by the other scum, stripped of positions in the all-important committees, and declared persona non grata by their politburo. So, since personal power, favors, and wealth are literally the only things the shitbags are interested in, it only happens in extremely rare cases. So rare that it's more a random fluke than any sort of rule. Occasionally a politician remembers what their job is supposed to be, but then they recover and return back to the fold.
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Re: US midterms: First results hours away as Biden's presidency faces change regardless of results

Post by Broomstick »

Gandalf wrote: 2022-11-20 07:07am Artificially limiting time in the job because an eighteenth century slave enthusiast did it is pointless. If voters don't want someone to run for a third term, they can vote for someone else.
Well, now there's the wrinkle that it's now part of the constitution that the max anyone can be PotUS is 10 years, so you only get two elected terms.

For every FDR that arguably did great things in three terms and change there could be a Trump - imagine three terms with him.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice
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