The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard » 2020-03-24 11:29pm

NZ goes to highest alert level

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy » 2020-03-25 12:38am

10 day forecast
Click on images to magnify

Australia
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Italy
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UK
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US
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2020-03-25 12:44am

Damn.

Those US/UK graphs are significantly steeper than Italy's, yes?

That's the difference, in terms that will be extraordinarily painful for millions of people, between being lead by basically competent professionals, and being lead by sociopathic man children.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2020-03-25 01:56am

Somehow, Trump's approval rating has actually risen in recent weeks-since March 14th, according to fivethirtyeight, his approval rating has gone up from 42.3 to 44.7%, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 53.2 to 50.5%, coming close to dipping below 50% disapproval for the first time since March 2017.

Just... how? Was it the one week where he acted vaguely like a responsible leader (if you didn't pay attention to the fascist undercurrents) before reverting to "Everything's fine, all glory to the stockmarket!"? Or is it just voters' caveman brains going "TRUMP STRONG LEADER, RALLY ROUND PRESIDENT" in a crisis?

Well, we'll see how those ratings look when there's 20% unemployment and a couple million dead. I just wish that wasn't what it takes to get people to see that the Emperor has no clothes.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by bilateralrope » 2020-03-25 02:16am

More news about shortages:

Coronavirus: South Island SPCAs cleared out of adoption animals
Every SPCA centre is the South Island is completely cleared out of adoptable animals.

Southern region general manager Sam Powell said a mad rush on adoptions saw hundreds of pets welcomed into homes around the country as Kiwis hunkered down to spend four weeks in lockdown.

Centres in Christchurch, Nelson, Invercargill, Greymouth and Dunedin had been emptied of all adoptable furry friends, with staff only holding on to animals not yet old or healthy enough to be placed in new homes.

The South Island's largest branch, in Christchurch, had managed the lion's share of adoptions, with 177 pets introduced to new owners since Saturday. In five days, 843 animals nationwide had been taken into care, well over the double the usual amount, Powell said.

Usually, about 320 animals are adopted around the country weekly.

It comes less than a week after SPCA New Zealand put out an urgent call for adoptions last Thursday. Due to the unsettling times, the SPCA wanted to ensure adoptions didn't slow down, so they temporarily reduced their adoption fees.

Powell said the public response had been "incredible", and having the animals placed with families was a huge relief for centre-workers, freeing up time to focus their attentions on the remaining and incoming animals, and any urgent or emergency situations.

Given the SPCA has been classified as an essential service, it would operate during the lockdown but adoptions would remain closed until the restrictions lifted, she said. About 250 animals would remain in the care of the Christchurch Centre, with 150 of those placed temporarily with foster families

Powell said kittens made by 80 per cent of adoptions, followed by cats, puppies, dogs, rabbits and a range of farm animals. The opportunity to bond with new animals as workers were being forced to stay in their homes was likely the cause of the sudden spike, she said.

She encouraged anyone who missed out on a furry friend to support the SPCA's work by donating online, and keeping their eyes peeled for any new listings when they became available.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Veterinary Association (NZVA) has issued a plea for owners to continue to care for their animals' health and welfare during the uncertain times.

"We appreciate there are many issues that people are dealing with in relation to Covid-19, particularly those self-isolating or with family members taking this precautionary measure," chief veterinary officer Dr Helen Beattie said.

"We would like to re-assure New Zealand animal owners that, despite a second dog in Hong Kong testing positive for the Covid-19 virus, there is currently no reliable evidence that animals are playing a role in the widespread transmission of the disease between humans or other animals."
Yeah, I'm not going to complain about this one.

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy » 2020-03-25 03:26am

Another nurse fired for warning about inadequate management against coronavirus

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/bre ... story.html
Nurse says she was fired by Northwestern Memorial Hospital after warning co-workers that face masks being used were not the safest
Sophie Sherry
By SOPHIE SHERRY
CHICAGO TRIBUNE |
MAR 24, 2020 | 2:55 PM

A nurse is suing Northwestern Memorial Hospital, saying she was fired after warning fellow employees the masks provided by the hospital would not properly protect them against the coronavirus.

Lauri Mazurkiewicz alleges that Northwestern required staff to wear a type of mask “less safe and less effective” than the N95 model. In fact, she says, staff were specifically not allowed to wear the N95 mask on hospital grounds.

Mazurkiewicz said she raised concerns when the hospital began treating patients for the coronavirus this month and she was exposed to people diagnosed with the highly contagious and sometimes fatal disease.

Mazurkiewicz said she sent an email to about 50 fellow employees last Wednesday, warning them that the N95 face masks were “safer and more effective” than masks provided by the hospital. The next day, Mazurkiewicz said she wore an N95 mask to the hospital and was fired.

“I just wanted to be a good nurse,” Mazurkiewicz said at a news conference Tuesday held with reporters on Skype.

[Most read] White House, Senate reach agreement on unprecedented $2 trillion stimulus package as coronavirus throttles economy »
The hospital said it would have no comment on the lawsuit except to say “we take these matters seriously and we are currently reviewing the complaint.

The “Particulate Respirator N95,” as it’s formally called, can filter out at least 95% of particles in the air, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. N95 masks adhere tightly to the face and require annual fittings to ensure the mask is properly sealed.

Surgical masks, on the other hand, are loosefitting and only protect against large droplets, according to the CDC. Worldwide, doctors have reported a shortage of personal protective equipment, including N95 masks. In the Chicago area, a number of stores have sold out of N95 masks and are struggling to restock.

Mazurkiewicz said she had her own box of N95 masks at home but did not see any available in her unit at the hospital. “Hospitals should have been better prepared,” she said. “They should have been able to protect the front line.”

Mazurkiewicz said she began experiencing coronaviruslike symptoms last week and went to the hospital Sunday because of difficulty breathing. She did not test positive for coronavirus but said she is still concerned about her health.

Mazurkiewicz’s lawyers filed the lawsuit against the hospital and a number of employees Monday in Cook County Circuit Court. The lawsuit asks for at least $50,000 in damages.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick » 2020-03-25 04:06am

"From 12 midnight tonight, the entire country will go under a complete lockdown," he said. "To save India and every Indian, there will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes."

MORE: Simple answers to common questions about coronavirus
The prime minister said the curfew would be enforced for the next 21 days, as health experts had advised this was the most important period to counteract the spread of the coronavirus.
But..but.. its draconian and authoritarian and didn't the Atlantic tell us democracies control pandemics better? Well I guess democratic India proves it can lock down better than China then since the Chinese only locked down around 50 million people, and India just beat that if they can lock down 1.3 billion.
Wonder how they're going to keep everyone fed. It ain't gonna work if they can't do that, because starving people tend to be a bit unruly and disobedient.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick » 2020-03-25 04:23am

mr friendly guy wrote:
2020-03-24 08:25pm
A few days later, Askini got the bills for her testing and treatment: $34,927.43. “I was pretty sticker-shocked,” she says. “I personally don’t know anybody who has that kind of money.”
Hey, at least the US are now making it so that the $3000 testing part for COVID 19 is covered. Can you imagine the cost if it wasn't?
That's going to be the next battle for the US public - dealing with the bills that come due for hospital treatment for this. A lot of people are going to find out that the health insurance they think is good and they "love" is actually pretty shit.

It would be a silver lining if the US finally gets real healthcare out of this pandemic, but given track record Congress has of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory I'm not going to count on it.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick » 2020-03-25 04:24am

Tribble wrote:
2020-03-24 09:26pm
Is it possible that even if it mutates to the point where reinfections can happen that those subsequent infections would be less severe, at least when compared to someone with no prior exposure?
Yes....

Those mutations could also result in more severe infections.

It's a bit of a coin toss.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick » 2020-03-25 04:37am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-24 09:43pm
Trump is urging a return to normal by Easter, and telling people to pack the Churches (we've already had issues with crowds of worshipers gathering to be "healed").
You know... .the idiots who follow Trump into crowd situations will reap a certain reward that, much as I deplore the loss of human life and the suffering that will occur, might eliminate a certain amount of stupidity in this country.

Around here the intelligent god-worshipers started to go to either live-streaming or in-home worship even before the authorities started asking for it.
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-24 09:43pm
Meanwhile, the Lt. Governor of Texas had this display of pure sociopathy:
Appearing on Fox News, Patrick told Tucker Carlson, “No one reached out to me and said, ‘As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” But if they had? “If that is the exchange, I’m all in,”
Here's the thing - he can choose to throw away his own life if he wants to, I support the right of an adult to make stupid choices, but it is deeply wrong for him to make that choice for other people. When your actions and policies start to hurt others is when others are justified in stepping in and putting a stop to your bullshit.
Patrick said. He continued: “That doesn’t make me noble or brave or anything like that.
No, Patrick, it makes you a contemptible jackass.
Let’s be smart about it and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves.
Yeah - rich guys like you can take care of yourselves. The rest of us can't hunker down in luxurious mansions and have other people risk getting sick to fetch, carry, and deliver for us.
But don’t sacrifice the country, don’t do that, don’t ruin this great America.”
:roll:

The country has suffered epidemics, even a pandemic, before. This isn't going to "ruin" America... although it might over turn the old order and the rich old connected white guys' club might lose even more power and authority. Which some of us are actually OK with. We see that as an improvement, not "ruining" anything.
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-24 09:43pm
They're literally saying that old people should die to keep the economy afloat, and trying to sell this as patriotism. Remember all that stuff about death panels killing your grandma? Turns out that, as usual with Republican bullshit, it was projection.

The "Greatest Generation", the ones who survived the Depression and WWII, are being asked to give one more time- to give their lives, not for their country, but for Wall Street.
^ Well said.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by loomer » 2020-03-25 04:42am

This is a good little brief article on some of the difficulties in messaging anti-COVID directives for Canadian First Nations. There are similar difficulties across CANZUS (and for some settler communities in the US, too) - generations of institutional neglect and outright malice have created a toxic legacy of justified distrust. This is part of why the calls for additional resources need to be taken seriously and not brushed off, too - only ongoing good faith engagement can help mend that toxic legacy's continuing influence, and when doing so also serves to help protect some of the most vulnerable communities from the worst effects of the pandemic, it's an overriding imperative.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick » 2020-03-25 04:44am

MKSheppard wrote:
2020-03-24 10:30pm
Shit's gonna get real over the weekend as we basically hit first Spain numbers, and then Italy numbers in dead per day, and then by Monday, we'll hit the 1K/day mark.

People will then REALLY panic.

If you've got your preps, you need to balance the need to top off your stocks, versus the fact that asymptomatic carriers are spreading most definitely now.
This could explain why more and more of the public is in favor of lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, and we're getting more cooperation with them.

The problem being those assholes who think their manhood depends upon being defiant regardless of consequences.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 » 2020-03-25 05:50am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 01:56am
Somehow, Trump's approval rating has actually risen in recent weeks-since March 14th, according to fivethirtyeight, his approval rating has gone up from 42.3 to 44.7%, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 53.2 to 50.5%, coming close to dipping below 50% disapproval for the first time since March 2017.

Just... how? Was it the one week where he acted vaguely like a responsible leader (if you didn't pay attention to the fascist undercurrents) before reverting to "Everything's fine, all glory to the stockmarket!"? Or is it just voters' caveman brains going "TRUMP STRONG LEADER, RALLY ROUND PRESIDENT" in a crisis?

Well, we'll see how those ratings look when there's 20% unemployment and a couple million dead. I just wish that wasn't what it takes to get people to see that the Emperor has no clothes.
Because the stupidity of the general population in being easily conned by tough man on TV all the time. I have very little faith in the American electorate, because they have shown themselves what kind of leader they wanted, and how utterly short-sighted the American culture as a whole can be.

The main thing is the seriousness of the outbreak has not truly hit home for most Americans. Once the US cases continue to grow and exceed China's cases, then that's the point where you average american will start to worry. Panic will sink in once the rural areas start getting hit very heavily. That's the point where you should look at Trump's ratings.

Right now, most Americans have not experienced a personal encounter with someone that they knew that died from the virus. Once cases grew to a point, even the most hardcore Trump supporters will waver in their support.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2020-03-25 06:09am

ray245 wrote:
2020-03-25 05:50am
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 01:56am
Somehow, Trump's approval rating has actually risen in recent weeks-since March 14th, according to fivethirtyeight, his approval rating has gone up from 42.3 to 44.7%, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 53.2 to 50.5%, coming close to dipping below 50% disapproval for the first time since March 2017.

Just... how? Was it the one week where he acted vaguely like a responsible leader (if you didn't pay attention to the fascist undercurrents) before reverting to "Everything's fine, all glory to the stockmarket!"? Or is it just voters' caveman brains going "TRUMP STRONG LEADER, RALLY ROUND PRESIDENT" in a crisis?

Well, we'll see how those ratings look when there's 20% unemployment and a couple million dead. I just wish that wasn't what it takes to get people to see that the Emperor has no clothes.
Because the stupidity of the general population in being easily conned by tough man on TV all the time. I have very little faith in the American electorate, because they have shown themselves what kind of leader they wanted, and how utterly short-sighted the American culture as a whole can be.
As depressing as the loyalty of Trump's base is, I'll remind everyone once again, when you begin to indulge in generalized attacks against the intelligence and character of Americans on the basis of Trump's election, that he lost the popular vote.
The main thing is the seriousness of the outbreak has not truly hit home for most Americans. Once the US cases continue to grow and exceed China's cases, then that's the point where you average american will start to worry. Panic will sink in once the rural areas start getting hit very heavily. That's the point where you should look at Trump's ratings.

Right now, most Americans have not experienced a personal encounter with someone that they knew that died from the virus. Once cases grew to a point, even the most hardcore Trump supporters will waver in their support.
I'm really not sure. They may just buy whatever conspiracy theory he spins and blame it on the Democrats/China/etc. At least until they're dying themselves. There is something very cult-like about the Trump base. Its when people in the Center start to speak well of him that I start to really worry.

But yeah, I expect things will change once most Americans know someone who has died. But by then, it'll be far, far too late.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 » 2020-03-25 06:21am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 06:09am
As depressing as the loyalty of Trump's base is, I'll remind everyone once again, when you begin to indulge in generalized attacks against the intelligence and character of Americans on the basis of Trump's election, that he lost the popular vote.
I'm talking about the electorate, not the population as a whole given that the US has the electoral colleges.

I'm really not sure. They may just buy whatever conspiracy theory he spins and blame it on the Democrats/China/etc. At least until they're dying themselves. There is something very cult-like about the Trump base. Its when people in the Center start to speak well of him that I start to really worry.

But yeah, I expect things will change once most Americans know someone who has died. But by then, it'll be far, far too late.
Conspiracy only works when reality is not hitting you directly in the face. Right now conspiracy still works for most of his supporters because it's the urban areas that are hit hard. Once it spread to the rural areas and people start dying from a lack of proper healthcare, things will change.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2020-03-25 06:24am

ray245 wrote:
2020-03-25 06:21am
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 06:09am
As depressing as the loyalty of Trump's base is, I'll remind everyone once again, when you begin to indulge in generalized attacks against the intelligence and character of Americans on the basis of Trump's election, that he lost the popular vote.
I'm talking about the electorate, not the population as a whole given that the US has the electoral colleges.
And most of the electorate voted against him. Unless you mean the Electoral College, but they're, like, a few hundred guys, hardly representative of the American populace as a whole.

Granted, the fact that over 40% of the electorate voted for him is still pretty fucking horrifying.
Conspiracy only works when reality is not hitting you directly in the face. Right now conspiracy still works for most of his supporters because it's the urban areas that are hit hard. Once it spread to the rural areas and people start dying from a lack of proper healthcare, things will change.
You're probably right. But that's going to be a terribly painful lesson. Right now the most I'm hoping for is we can get through it without either becoming a dictatorship or fighting a full-scale civil war, and both of those seem more and more unlikely to me.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 » 2020-03-25 06:34am

J wrote:
2020-03-23 08:19pm
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-23 07:00pm
Well, Dickless just said, in answer to a reporter's question, that they would "open up" America soon, and that it would not be months. Keep in mind that experts expect this to last until Summer at the soonest.

Yeah, America's going to make Italy look like a regular old flu season, at this rate. It makes you wonder if he's deliberately trying to make it bad enough to justify a declaration of martial law and sweeping "emergency powers". Or if he's just doing what Wall Street told him.
The problem is we in North America waited too long. There are now 2 choices 1) open up the country and let the cat out of the bag, however many people die, die. 2) Lock down everything until the virus burns out or runs its course which is projected to take somewhere between 6-18 months. The latter results in a complete destruction of the economy, complete failure of all healthcare & other vital systems as all the previously unknown key nodes in the system are shut down or bankrupted and various critical supplies are exhausted. The death toll from that will likely be worse than letting the virus run its course.

Would you like to see what happens when water treatment fails? Or the power grid goes down and we can't replace the broken transformers because the only mills in the country which rolls the special steel for the transformers is out of business? Or even something simpler like transport fuels. We've just destroyed the demand for gasoline whereas diesel fuel isn't affected as much since vital goods still need to move. When crude oil is refined into diesel & gasoline, it comes out in a certain proportion which can be moved around a bit but not that much. We're eventually going to end up with a large surplus of gasoline and nowhere to store it, at which point the refineries shut down and all transport stops for lack of diesel. Either that or we figure out a way to flare off all the unused gasoline.

It's not as simple as you think. There are some very hard choices to be made by our leaders. Of course, we wouldn't be in this position if they'd gotten off their sorry asses and done their jobs 2 months ago.
Just to follow up with this:


China shows way to ease lockdowns before vaccine, says report

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... al-college
China’s tough lockdown and physical distancing measures in Wuhan and other provinces appear to have successfully ended new locally-transmitted coronavirus infections and may chart a route back to normal life, according to a report from Imperial College London.

The report, from Prof Neil Ferguson and his team, who have been the main modellers of the epidemic for the UK and other governments, suggests that it is possible to lift the physical distancing restrictions, as China has begun to do, without a resurgence of the epidemic.

“At this difficult time, these results suggest that, after containment, a carefully managed and monitored relaxation of effective large-scale lockdowns may be possible even before an effective vaccine is available,” said Prof Christl Donnelly, of Imperial and Oxford Universities, one of the team.

Ferguson said their analysis “provides some hope for countries currently in various levels of lockdown that once case numbers are brought to low levels, it might be possible to relax social distancing – provided equal measures to limit the risk of the resurgence of transmission are introduced”.

He stressed, however, that relaxing the lockdown policies would depend on “rapid and ubiquitous testing and rigorous case and contact isolation policies”. That would mean testing everyone with symptoms and following up and isolating their contacts, in order to stamp out any further flare-ups of infection.

The report shows that low-level economic activity has started to resume in China and Hong Kong, without significant outbreaks. The analysis shows that “intermediate levels of local activity can be maintained while avoiding a large outbreak”, it says.

The findings do not rule out further epidemics in China, nor estimate what level of normal life is safe. “However, they do suggest that after very intense social distancing which resulted in containment, China has successfully exited their stringent social distancing policy to some degree,” says the report.

“Globally, China is at a more advanced stage of the pandemic. Policies implemented to reduce the spread of Covid-19 in China and the exiting strategies that followed can inform decision-making processes for countries once containment is achieved.”

For people who thinks indefinite lock-down is the way China is going about things, you are massively misunderstanding the point of a lock-down. Already in Italy, we are seeing positive signs that the increase in new cases is starting to decline, and once it reaches a more manageable level, you can gradually re-open the country with measures in place.

Lock down is to bring the total number of new cases down, at that point you can implement effective contact tracing measures to isolate all of the suspected cases. It's to move the strategy from being merely about mitigation back down to containment. If you achieve containment, you can live life as semi-normal as you can like in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The fact that even some of the top scientists are waiting for more reports from China to prove their strategy works before implementing it is just downright frustrating.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2020-03-25 06:43am

Can't blame them for being cautious, really. I'd rather the lockdowns go on longer than necessary than end too soon, leading to a resurgence of cases.

But if China can make it work, then hopefully the rest of the world will adopt the same model as soon as practicable.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy » 2020-03-25 06:51am

ray245 wrote:
2020-03-25 05:50am

Because the stupidity of the general population in being easily conned by tough man on TV all the time. I have very little faith in the American electorate, because they have shown themselves what kind of leader they wanted, and how utterly short-sighted the American culture as a whole can be.

The main thing is the seriousness of the outbreak has not truly hit home for most Americans. Once the US cases continue to grow and exceed China's cases, then that's the point where you average american will start to worry. Panic will sink in once the rural areas start getting hit very heavily. That's the point where you should look at Trump's ratings.

Right now, most Americans have not experienced a personal encounter with someone that they knew that died from the virus. Once cases grew to a point, even the most hardcore Trump supporters will waver in their support.
The US has 67% of China's cases but less than 25% of the population. That should already clue people in.
For people who thinks indefinite lock-down is the way China is going about things, you are massively misunderstanding the point of a lock-down. Already in Italy, we are seeing positive signs that the increase in new cases is starting to decline, and once it reaches a more manageable level, you can gradually re-open the country with measures in place.

Lock down is to bring the total number of new cases down, at that point you can implement effective contact tracing measures to isolate all of the suspected cases. It's to move the strategy from being merely about mitigation back down to containment. If you achieve containment, you can live life as semi-normal as you can like in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The fact that even some of the top scientists are waiting for more reports from China to prove their strategy works before implementing it is just downright frustrating.
Even in the lockdown in both Italy and China, industries each country considered "essential" were still operational. Non essential industries like restaurants were allowed to deliver (which plays well into China's private logistics companies). I think J's scenario is quite pessimistic. And as you say, when the lockdown is eased, the non essential industries start coming back.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 » 2020-03-25 07:06am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 06:43am
Can't blame them for being cautious, really. I'd rather the lockdowns go on longer than necessary than end too soon, leading to a resurgence of cases.

But if China can make it work, then hopefully the rest of the world will adopt the same model as soon as practicable.
That's not being cautious, that is being dangerously reckless imo. They could have implemented the measures a lot earlier and contained the situation much earlier. If it was done weeks ago when cases are low, a 2 weeks lockdown with low cases could have enabled them to do more contact tracing and testing without being overwhelmed.

The scientists talking about the herd-immunity has dangerously affected good policy making.



The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 06:24am
And most of the electorate voted against him. Unless you mean the Electoral College, but they're, like, a few hundred guys, hardly representative of the American populace as a whole.
I mean the electoral college because they are ultimately the ones who vote in the president, and because they are represented disproportionately ( i.e. they represent the state's preference and not the general population's preferences), this mean American democracy is heavily dependent on those rural population making the right decisions. American politics lives and die by the decision-making of the most ill-informed.
Granted, the fact that over 40% of the electorate voted for him is still pretty fucking horrifying.
It works because the American political landscape has been pushing for an image over action kind of president for a while now. Trump represents the average American, in the sense that he represent the average American's judgement and skill in managing things. When your entire political culture has been about telling and instilling the notion that everyone is just as capable of making good decision as the most well-educated, rational and capable experts, there will be a portion of the voters that wants to elect Trump.

You're probably right. But that's going to be a terribly painful lesson. Right now the most I'm hoping for is we can get through it without either becoming a dictatorship or fighting a full-scale civil war, and both of those seem more and more unlikely to me.
There are a significant population of people who can only learn if things are painful to them. Most people are not taught to think in a more abstract manner, to envision stuff they could not immediately attest for themselves. This mean most people's ability to do long-term planning is going to be terrible.

mr friendly guy wrote:
2020-03-25 06:51am
The US has 67% of China's cases but less than 25% of the population. That should already clue people in.
Not when most of Trump's support comes from the more rural parts of the US, where cases have yet to reach its peak. Most cases are still concentrated in the urban areas like NYC, so Trump's supporters can still chalk it up as a democratic voters problem...for now.
Even in the lockdown in both Italy and China, industries each country considered "essential" were still operational. Non essential industries like restaurants were allowed to deliver (which plays well into China's private logistics companies). I think J's scenario is quite pessimistic. And as you say, when the lockdown is eased, the non essential industries start coming back.
I think J like many other people outside of Asia fundamentally misunderstood the strategies in place in most of Asia-Pacific. WHO has already said lockdown is the defensive strategy, while contact tracing and testing is the offensive strategy we can use.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by loomer » 2020-03-25 07:15am

The Navajo nation is now at 50 cases, originating out of a church function. Oh, and they don't have enough PPE even with a delivery from the SNS.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2020-03-25 07:19am

ray245 wrote:
2020-03-25 07:06am
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 06:43am
Can't blame them for being cautious, really. I'd rather the lockdowns go on longer than necessary than end too soon, leading to a resurgence of cases.

But if China can make it work, then hopefully the rest of the world will adopt the same model as soon as practicable.
That's not being cautious, that is being dangerously reckless imo. They could have implemented the measures a lot earlier and contained the situation much earlier. If it was done weeks ago when cases are low, a 2 weeks lockdown with low cases could have enabled them to do more contact tracing and testing without being overwhelmed.

The scientists talking about the herd-immunity has dangerously affected good policy making.
Oh, I thought you were talking about them following China's lead and lifting lockdowns.

Yeah, lockdowns should have been implemented in a lot of places sooner, although I think we can do without China's threats of execution for breaking them.
I mean the electoral college because they are ultimately the ones who vote in the president, and because they are represented disproportionately ( i.e. they represent the state's preference and not the general population's preferences), this mean American democracy is heavily dependent on those rural population making the right decisions. American politics lives and die by the decision-making of the most ill-informed.
Maybe, but the point is that the EC isn't really representative of the American public or electorate as a whole. That's why it sucks.
It works because the American political landscape has been pushing for an image over action kind of president for a while now. Trump represents the average American, in the sense that he represent the average American's judgement and skill in managing things. When your entire political culture has been about telling and instilling the notion that everyone is just as capable of making good decision as the most well-educated, rational and capable experts, there will be a portion of the voters that wants to elect Trump.
Eh, I don't think the average American is a sociopathic man-baby. But Trump does get a lot of his appeal for essentially being wish-fulfilment for (mainly white male) assholes. They vote for him because he gets away with doing all the shit they wish they could get away with doing, and because he tells them what they want to hear- that they're entitled to have their way and everything else is just a lie by the evil liberal feminist immigrants.
There are a significant population of people who can only learn if things are painful to them. Most people are not taught to think in a more abstract manner, to envision stuff they could not immediately attest for themselves. This mean most people's ability to do long-term planning is going to be terrible.
How to encourage that kind of abstract, long-term thought is something our education system should be putting a lot more thought into.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 » 2020-03-25 07:39am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2020-03-25 07:19am
Oh, I thought you were talking about them following China's lead and lifting lockdowns.

Yeah, lockdowns should have been implemented in a lot of places sooner, although I think we can do without China's threats of execution for breaking them.
I think all the threats China has been saying is jail terms for breaking quarantine. And when you see just how difficult it is to get people to stay indoors all over the world ( be it East or West), you can see why they want to issue harsh penalties. Humans can be extremely stubborn even in the most authoritarian places in the world.

Maybe, but the point is that the EC isn't really representative of the American public or electorate as a whole. That's why it sucks.
Well you are stuck with it. And given that there is no realistic plan of changing it, your only hope is to ensure the electorate learn from this.

Eh, I don't think the average American is a sociopathic man-baby. But Trump does get a lot of his appeal for essentially being wish-fulfilment for (mainly white male) assholes. They vote for him because he gets away with doing all the shit they wish they could get away with doing, and because he tells them what they want to hear- that they're entitled to have their way and everything else is just a lie by the evil liberal feminist immigrants.
The average American might not be a sociopath, but I think the average American is more than happy to push blame onto others whenever they can. Trump also represent the average American in terms of not listening to experts and listening to Fox news and taking it as gospel.
How to encourage that kind of abstract, long-term thought is something our education system should be putting a lot more thought into.
That's what every education system needs to do. Generally speaking, countries that perceive itself as facing existential crisis easily tend to be better at being able to view at things in a more long-term and abstract manner. There's plenty of issues with the Singaporean education system, but the need to view potential threats in a more long-term and abstract manner has been instilled in the population because of the SARS outbreak in 2003.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard » 2020-03-25 07:41am

mr friendly guy wrote:
2020-03-25 03:26am
Another nurse fired for warning about inadequate management against coronavirus
TBH, getting fired as a nurse will probably be for the best. You'll be out of the firing line for the soon to come, hottest, most intense ramp up of Corona victims, and you'll be able to set your price for going back to work as hospitals burn through staff.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard » 2020-03-25 07:56am

So Cuomo wants ALL of the strategic stockpile of Ventilators in the US for NYS (actually for NYC), but back in 2015; there was a NYS Commission on Pandemic Planning, where they said: "hey um, we need a lot more ventilators" but the cost was too much, so they weren't procured.

Likewise, during the H1N1 Pandemic in 2008-2009; the US released 100 MILLION N95 masks from the strategic stockpile...but then never rebuilt the stockpile over the last 12 years -- it was only 12~ million when this started.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-supplies
The shortage has prompted some groups to call for the federal government to unleash its full reserve of medical supplies contained in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS), which is controlled by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

But emergency rooms waiting for an influx of gear from the national stockpile may be disappointed. Alex Azar, secretary of HHS, told Congress last month that the stockpile contains 30 million surgical masks and 12 million of the more protective N95 masks. He said there were an additional 5 million N95 masks that may have passed their expiration date.

That number pales in comparison to what could be needed in a serious outbreak. Government scientists in 2015 estimated that a severe flu outbreak infecting 20 to 30 percent of the population would require at least 1.7 billion of the N95 respirators.

The national stockpile used to be somewhat more robust. In 2006, Congress provided supplemental funds to add 104 million N95 masks and 52 million surgical masks in an effort to prepare for a flu pandemic. But after the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, which triggered a nationwide shortage of masks and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog orders for the N95 variety, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.
A lot of people all over, over the years, made dumb decisions, and we're all gonna pay the price.
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