Qasem Soleimani (IRGC Commander) killed in Baghdad

[Broomstick]

Sorry for the DP, but there was no second wave (seems to have been bluster). There were fortunately no casualties and if Trump has some sense he won't retaliate.

Your hypothetical is not possible. If Trump had some sense he wouldn't have engaged in assassination of a government official of Iran.

[Mange]

Sorry for the DP, but there was no second wave (seems to have been bluster). There were fortunately no casualties and if Trump has some sense he won't retaliate.

Your hypothetical is not possible. If Trump had some sense he wouldn't have engaged in assassination of a government official of Iran.

No military retaliation but Trump announced new sanctions and a wish that NATO becomes more active in the Middle East. The conditions he set on Iran was maximalist so nothing has really changed.

Now it also hinges on the various militias. Khamenei slso wrote on Twitter earlier today that the (symbolic) attack was "a slap" and "not enough". The Iranians are certainly not going to escalate this further, but I wonder what the reaction will be if the proxy forces attacks any American targets.

[Nicholas]

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/79451703 ... d-air-base

Satellite Photos Reveal Extent Of Damage From Iranian Strike On Air Base In Iraq

January 8, 202010:30 AM ET
Geoff Brumfiel, photographed for NPR, 17 January 2019, in Washington DC.

Geoff Brumfiel
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A satellite photo from the commercial company Planet shows damage to at least five structures at the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq.
Planet/MIIS

Updated at 2:45 p.m. ET

Satellite photos taken Wednesday show that an Iranian missile strike has caused extensive damage at the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq, which hosts U.S. and coalition troops.

The photos, taken by the commercial company Planet and shared with NPR via the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, show hangars and buildings hit hard by a barrage of Iranian missiles that were fired early Wednesday morning local time.

At least five structures were damaged in the attack on the base in Anbar province, which apparently was precise enough to hit individual buildings. "Some of the locations struck look like the missiles hit dead center," says David Schmerler, an analyst with the Middlebury Institute.

Iran's attack targeted at least two military bases in Iraq. The extent of the damage to the second base, in Irbil, was unclear.

Shortly afterward, President Trump said in an optimistic tweet: "All is well!
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Satellite images show damage to hangars and buildings in what appears to be a series of precision missile strikes launched by Iran.
Planet Labs Inc./Middlebury Institute

There are no reports of casualties as a result of the strike on Ain al-Assad, which follows last week's U.S. drone strike in Iraq that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani.

Schmerler says it is unclear whether targets on the base were chosen to avoid loss of life. "The buildings we're tallying now seem to be used for storing aircraft," he says. "There are other structures at the air base that would be exclusively for people so maybe they intended to strike sites with equipment over people."

Photos circulating online that were reportedly taken on the ground some 20 miles from the air base show the wreckage of two missiles. "These appear to be the remnants of a Qiam missile body/airframe," tweeted Michael Elleman, who directs nonproliferation and nuclear policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The Qiam-1 missile is a single stage, liquid-fueled, short-range ballistic missile developed by Iran with a range of up to 500 miles, according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies' Missile Defense Project. It is capable of carrying a 1,650-pound warhead and has a precision guidance system that can be redirected during flight.

Videos posted on Iranian state media also showed what appeared to be solid-fueled missiles being launched, according to Fabian Hinz, an Iranian missile expert at the Middlebury Institute. Such missiles can be launched at short notice, are precision guided and can include decoys to foil missile defenses. They are "very advanced," Hinz says.
All the missiles used are far larger than the rockets used in previous attacks on U.S. personnel in Iraq. Those weapons carry warheads of a few pounds in size, while these ballistic missiles have warheads that are many hundreds of pounds. "It's a really, really substantial difference," Hinz says.

A U.S. official confirmed to NPR that 10 missiles struck Ain al-Assad, one hit the base in Irbil, and four missiles apparently fell short.

Analysts at Middlebury identified several impact points at Ain al-Assad, including one missile that landed on a runway — a likely miss.

"Overall I think it's a relatively modest response," says Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Karako says he believes the strike deliberately avoided areas that house personnel. Given the apparent precision of the missiles used: "If they wanted a bunch of causalities they could have done something different," he says.

"U.S. early warning systems detected the incoming ballistic missiles well in advance, providing U.S. and Coalition forces adequate time to take appropriate force protection measures," added a U.S. defense department official.

Despite the possibly symbolic thrust of Iran's attack — Iraq's foreign minister says it targeted the base where the Reaper drone used to kill Soleimani was launched — Iran's military has also demonstrated its ability to openly strike U.S. forces in Iraq at the same military installation that Trump visited last year.

"For the time being, the Americans have been given a slap, revenge is a different issue," Iran's Fars News Agency quotes Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as saying Wednesday. "Military moves like this are not enough. The Americans' corruption-stirring presence should come to an end."

Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump sought to portray the missile attacks as the end of Iran's military response to the killing of Soleimani. "All of our soldiers are safe and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases," he said. "Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world."

But one expert on Iran says the missile attacks may prove to be only a prelude to further reprisals.

"My mother used to say a gentleman carried two handkerchiefs: 1 for show (in the breast pocket of his jacket) and 1 for blow, ie, use. I expect what we have seen is the Iranian retaliation for show," tweeted Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass. "What is likely to come at some point are the deniable attacks meant to cause harm."

NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman contributed to this report.

Assuming that the photos aren't a US disinformation move this short put an end to any foolish ideas that a war with Iran would be cheap. This attack shows the same accuracy we saw when they hit the Saudi's Abquiq oil facility and they apparently got a number of strikes through whatever defenses the US had put up. They appear to have aimed for equipment hangers but I see no reason they could not have hit barracks or offices instead.

Nicholas

[MKSheppard]

they apparently got a number of strikes through whatever defenses the US had put up.

It's easy when there's NO defenses. All Patriot/Avenger/CRAM equipment apparently was programmed for other operational theaters.

Who knew ignoring ADA would come back to bite us?

[MKSheppard]

Your hypothetical is not possible. If Trump had some sense he wouldn't have engaged in assassination of a government official of Iran.

From wiki:

On October 25, 2007, the United States labeled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) as "terrorist organizations" with the Kyl–Lieberman Amendment.[24]

The Iranian Parliament responded by approving a nonbinding resolution labeling the CIA and the U.S. Army "terrorist organizations". The resolution cited U.S. involvement in dropping nuclear bombs in Japan in World War II, using depleted uranium munitions in the Balkans, bombing and killing Iraqi civilians, and torturing terror suspects in prisons among others.[25][26]

[MKSheppard]

Here's what i think happened with the Ukrainian flight:

The flight was delayed an hour before it finally took off.

I think that's what killed them.

As the plane climbed past a few thousand feet, it started to get skin to skin radar paints from nearby SAM sites as it crossed above their radar horizons.

The operators saw a target suddenly appear and they checked their lists of scheduled flights out of the airport and didn't see anything for that hour.

Thus it must be either a cruise missile on a pop up trajectory or a stealth plane opening its bomb bay doors.

So they shoot and.... well. Oops.

Photographs of TOR M1 fragments are showing up on twitter from people who have been in the area of the crash site.

Apparently TOR M1 is operated by....the IRGC according to some sources.

[MKSheppard]

all this is from the night of january 7th

#IRGC Statement

Operation name: Martyr Solleimani

1. We warn US for further moves, we'll go for more painful responses.

2. We warn the governments who gave space and bases to US, wherever we get attacked from, we'll attack there!

3. We recognize Israel as an accomplice in the crime [Solleimani's death].

4. We suggest the American people to call their soldiers back from the region to prevent putting their lives at risk

Reports of US military jets taking off from the UAE. IRGC journalist says that if these jets attack #Iran, Iran will "rain missiles down on the UAE."

BREAKING: #lran Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) announces that #Hezbollah will attack #lsrael if #US responds to tonights strikes on #US bases in #lraq. Reports that Israel has heightened security alert across Golan Heights.

So I guess the odds of Israel being sucked into this are high if things continue.

[MKSheppard]

IRGC statement in farsi

سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی در بیانیه‌ای از حملات سنگین موشکی نیروی هوافضای سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی به پایگاه آمریکایی عین الاسد در انتقام از ترور ناجوانمردانه سپهبد شهید حاج قاسم سلیمانی و یارانش خبر داد.

بسم القاصم الجبارین

امت اسلامی داغدار، ملت بزرگ و شهید پرور ایران اسلامی

زمان تحقق وعده صادق فرا رسید و به اذن خداوند متعال بامداد امروز در پاسخ به عملیات جنایتکارانه و تروریستی نیروهای متجاوز آمریکایی و انتقام ترور ناجوانمردانه و شهادت مظلومانه فرمانده قهرمان و فداکار نیروی قدس سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی سردار پرافتخار سپهبد پاسدار شهید حاج قاسم سلیمانی و یارانش، رزمندگان شجاع نیروی هوافضای سپاه طی عملیات موفق بنام عملیات شهید سلیمانی با رمز مقدس یازهرا (س) با شلیک ده ها فروند موشک زمین به زمین پایگاه هوایی اشغالی ارتش تروریستی و متجاوز آمریکا موسوم به «عین الاسد» را درهم کوبیدند، که جزئیات آن متعاقبا به استحضار ملت شریف ایران و آزادگان جهان اسلام خواهد رسید.

سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی با تبریک این پیروزی بزرگ به امت اسلامی به پا خواسته و مردم فداکار عظیم‌الشان ایران اسلامی اعلام میدارد:

1- به شیطان بزرگ، رژیم سفاک و مستکبر آمریکا هشدار می دهیم هر شرارت مجدد و تجاوز یا تحرک دیگر با پاسخ دردناک تر و کوبنده تری مواجه خواهد شد.

2- به دولت های متحد آمریکا که پایگاه های خود را در اختیار ارتش تروریستی این کشور قرار داده اند اخطار داده می‌شود هر سرزمینی، به هر ترتیب مبدا اقدامات خصمانه و تجاوزگرانه علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران قرار گیرد، هدف قرار خواهد گرفت.

3- به هیچ وجه رژیم صهیونیستی را در این جنایات جدای از رژیم جنایت کار آمریکا نمی دانیم.

4- به مردم آمریکا توصیه می کنیم برای پیشگیری از خسارت های بیشتر، سربازان آمریکایی را از منطقه فراخوانده و اجازه ندهند با نفرت افزایی روز افزون رژیم ضد مردمی حاکم بر ایالات متحده جان نظامیان آن کشور بیش از این به خطر افتد.

و ما النّصر الّا من عند اللّه العزیز الحکیم

18 دی ماه 1398

سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی

A grieving Islamic Ummah, a great nation and a martyr of Islamic Iran

The time has come to fulfill the true promise, and with the permission of God Almighty this morning, in response to the criminal and terrorist operations of the American invaders and the vicious assassination of the hero and martyrdom of the heroic and sacrificial commander of the Quds Force, the Revolutionary Guards Corps of Revolutionary Guards, Capt. , brave warriors force Aerospace Corps during the successful operation known as operation martyr Soleimani password sacred Yaz·hra (R) by firing dozens of missiles surface-to-air base occupied terrorist army and invading America so-called "same -Assad " shattered smashed, the details of which Subsequently to the notice The noble nation of Iran and the free people of the Islamic world will arrive.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps congratulates the Islamic Ummah on this great victory and proclaims the great devoted people of Islamic Iran:

1- We warn the Great Satan, the vicious and arrogant American regime that any further rape, rape or other mobility will result in a more painful and cruel response.

2. United States governments that have given their bases to the terrorist army of the United States will be warned that any territory, whatever the origin of hostile and aggressive acts against the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be targeted.

3. By no means do we consider the Zionist regime in these crimes separate from the American criminal regime.

4. We urge the American people to call on American troops from the region to prevent further casualties and not to allow the lives of US military personnel to be further endangered by the growing hatred of the anti-US regime.

And we Al-Nusra now I am in the hands of Allah

December 18, 1398

Islamic revolution guards corp

[MKSheppard]

Photographs of TOR M1 fragments are showing up on twitter from people who have been in the area of the crash site.

[aerius]

If the photos in this twitter thread are authentic, it appears the Iranians scored an own goal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi ... 4374806530

[Straha]

On what charges? The entire point is that he hasn't broken the law*. And complementarity means he can't be brought in front of the Hague. (Actually, theoretically he could be if he keeps pardoning war criminals and appointing people like Haspel to positions of power.)

So... if, hypothetically, he is removed from office by the Senate (I know, I know, stop laughing and go with it for a minute...) and thus is no longer PotUS could he be arrested while visiting one of his foreign properties and then brought before the Hague?

No. There are two problems. The first of which is that Trump probably hasn't broken any law here. While there is some legitimate dispute around this most people would think that this falls into the penumbra of probably being legal, and the last twenty years of scholarship on executive power over war powers would say that this is almost certainly something the President can do absent restrictions from congress. The second is that the ICC doesn't have primary jurisdiction over cases like this. According to the principle of complementarity the ICC operates as a buttress and support to national legal systems, and not as its replacement. In practice this means that if a country has a competent legal system that has historically prosecuted war crimes the ICC won't interfere even if a crime hasn't been prosecuted.

HOWEVER, the principle does say that if a nation's government and legal system are designed in such a way to protect war criminals that this deference will no longer apply. Given Trump's pardoning of Eddie Gallagher and the appointment of torturers like Gaspel to lead the CIA a case can be made that the US legal system has proven itself to no longer be competent in that context. If that's true (which is a big ask) then Trump, theoretically, could be tried at the ICC.

[Ralin]

Why should Trump be brought before an European court at all as opposed to handed over to the Iranians? Theoretically, assuming some third-party country did the right thing and seized him?

[Straha]

It's not a European court, it's the International Criminal Court, and by almost every tenet of international law Iran would not have jurisdiction over Trump et al. Historically, Iran would claim differently but that's a separate kettle of fish.

While I would be happy to see him (and many many members of the Trump administration) handed over to the Iranians, the question is less 'what would retribution look like' or 'what would give me pleasure' and more 'Legally, what potential international consequences could Trump face internationally?' and the answer is that that would have to be done through the ICC.

[Broomstick]

Your hypothetical is not possible. If Trump had some sense he wouldn't have engaged in assassination of a government official of Iran.

On October 25, 2007, the United States labeled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) as "terrorist organizations" with the Kyl–Lieberman Amendment.[24]

The Iranian Parliament responded by approving a nonbinding resolution labeling the CIA and the U.S. Army "terrorist organizations". The resolution cited U.S. involvement in dropping nuclear bombs in Japan in World War II, using depleted uranium munitions in the Balkans, bombing and killing Iraqi civilians, and torturing terror suspects in prisons among others.[25][26]

All of which is completely irrelevant to my statement.

Engaging in the assassination of a member of a foreign government is fucking stupid because it's an act of war.

But yes, the US government mostly certainly has bombed and killed Iraqi civilians in a war started on lies and deception on the part of the US government, and the US government has engaged in torture. The US is not the good guys in the Middle East.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

If the photos in this twitter thread are authentic, it appears the Iranians scored an own goal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi ... 4374806530

I wonder what bullshit explanation Iran will come out with on this. And I wonder if anyone will actually believe it.

[Khaat]

Or, as the case may be, who was on that flight that we aren't hearing about?

[Straha]

If the photos in this twitter thread are authentic, it appears the Iranians scored an own goal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi ... 4374806530

I wonder what bullshit explanation Iran will come out with on this. And I wonder if anyone will actually believe it.

Why wouldn't it be: "We thought it was an incoming attack and shot it down. It was a justified reaction on behalf of the commander in charge given the circumstances." ?

Last time the US and Iran got to this point an American cruiser shot down an Iranian air liner, and the Navy awarded him the Legion of Merit. I'll bet money that whatever the Iranian reaction is it'll be better than that.

[LadyTevar]

Photographs of TOR M1 fragments are showing up on twitter from people who have been in the area of the crash site.

Do we have confirmation this is a picture from the site of the downed plane?
Especially since on Facebook they've been calling this picture a SM-14 (or something), not a TOR M1.

I'm calling BULLSHIT until proof positive is found. After all, Sadam Hussein had WMDs, right? Why not go to war over invisible missiles too?

[Mange]

If the photos in this twitter thread are authentic, it appears the Iranians scored an own goal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi ... 4374806530

I wonder what bullshit explanation Iran will come out with on this. And I wonder if anyone will actually believe it.

I think they're going to continue to deny (Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation (CAOI) chief Ali Abedzadeh said earlier today that it was "scientifically impossible" that the plane had been shot down).
This reminds me of Flight 655 which is also a reason for a possible denial.

The Iranians have used bulldozers to clear the wreckage and have claimed that the black boxes are damaged.

That the Iranians didn't close the airspace for civilian traffic when they were expecting possible retaliatory strikes by the U.S. is strange. A tragedy.

Photographs of TOR M1 fragments are showing up on twitter from people who have been in the area of the crash site.

Do we have confirmation this is a picture from the site of the downed plane?
Especially since on Facebook they've been calling this picture a SM-14 (or something), not a TOR M1.

I'm calling BULLSHIT until proof positive is found. After all, Sadam Hussein had WMDs, right? Why not go to war over invisible missiles too?

LadyTevar, SA-15 "Gauntlet" is the NATO reporting name while TOR-M1 is the proper Russian designation.

While the picture hasn't been confirmed, a geolocated video surfaced today, which apparently has been confirmed by The New York Times, shows the aircraft being hit. However, that picture hasn't been online earlier than today (there are also more than one picture of the seeker from other angles).

[Broomstick]

The Iranians have used bulldozers to clear the wreckage and have claimed that the black boxes are damaged.

Damaged black boxes are highly unusual. Not impossible, just improbable.

That said - I completely understand why the Iranians don't want any Americans involved in the investigation. I think turning it over to as neutral a third party as can be found would be the best course, but in today's world I don't except anything so sensible to happen.

[Gandalf]

Does this administration have an equivalent to Colin Powell, who can come out and address everyone about the grave threat of Iran?

[Straha]

Nope. Everyone with credibility was either fired or quit. I think the closest they have is Mike Pence. Or, Gina Haspel.

[Broomstick]

Speaking as someone who lived with Pence as governor for four years, I would not say Pence is the "closest". You know, I signed a petition to recall Pence back when he was just a State governor. You can probably guess how I would feel about him being PotUS. He sure as hell has no credibility with me.

[MKSheppard]

Damaged black boxes are highly unusual. Not impossible, just improbable.

Iran fucked up here.

They forgot the plane was only 3~ years old, and might probably have the new option for the planes to phone home basic data on engines, altitude and airspeed to Boeing via satcomm. That stuff was sold to airlines as "improve reliability, reduce fuel burn" by reducing tendencies for flight crew to hotdog and then make stuff up.

It got extra impetus after MH370 disappeared.

[MKSheppard]

The US (through Pentagon "sources"), Canada via PM Trudeau, UK via PM Johnson, and Ukraine via PM all say "Iranian missile shot it down".