Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, SCRawl, Thanas, Edi, K. A. Pital

Post Reply
User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-23 05:44pm

Gandalf wrote:
2019-04-23 05:40pm
GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-04-23 05:25pm
No, you are looking too small TRR. The impeachment attempt on Nixon was very unpopular, and Nixon had far better approval ratings than Trump. Our focus should be building an iron clad case, make sure that we have a genuine chance at impeachment, THEN go for impeachment. If the first two aren't done, forget any chance of the Dems winning the elections.
I assume that you can back up all of the claims here?
He won't, because he can't. There is no proof that the Democrats will automatically lose the election if they impeach. It is simply speculation, which is repeated because everyone "knows" its the truth, because everyone repeats it. Its only (slender) basis is that the Republicans lost support during the Clinton impeachment- but even then, I would point out that a) that was an impeachment on weaker grounds, and b) the Republicans still held the House and Presidency in 2000. Hardly a resounding repudiation for a failed impeachment.

Its just more gutless centrisim which says "Never dare to be bold. Never stand for anything, always run towards the Center, even while the Right push the Center further and further toward fascism. No matter how extreme the other side gets, always be bipartisan and conciliatory, and fuck our own base."

Edit: its particularly amusing coming from a poster who constantly turns every topic into "why we need to get rid of freedom of speech". But when there's actually a chance for bold action to constrain Trumpism, he suddenly gets cold feet.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
GrosseAdmiralFox
Padawan Learner
Posts: 290
Joined: 2019-01-20 01:28pm

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-04-23 08:00pm

Gandalf wrote:
2019-04-23 05:40pm
GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-04-23 05:25pm
No, you are looking too small TRR. The impeachment attempt on Nixon was very unpopular, and Nixon had far better approval ratings than Trump. Our focus should be building an iron clad case, make sure that we have a genuine chance at impeachment, THEN go for impeachment. If the first two aren't done, forget any chance of the Dems winning the elections.
I assume that you can back up all of the claims here?
During the leadup to Nixon resigning over Watergate, this was the numbers for impeachment:
44% YES vs. 42% NO (among GOP, 19% YES & 70% NO)
Basically, at best deadlock.

It was some time later (~3 months) that the 'yes' numbers grew close enough to go through with impeachment.

We are at worse numbers for that.

User avatar
GrosseAdmiralFox
Padawan Learner
Posts: 290
Joined: 2019-01-20 01:28pm

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-04-23 08:35pm

Image
This might be old, but given the New York Times is oddly on-point so far...

User avatar
Gandalf
SD.net White Wizard
Posts: 15094
Joined: 2002-09-16 11:13pm
Location: A video store in Australia

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Gandalf » 2019-04-23 09:06pm

GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-04-23 08:00pm
Gandalf wrote:
2019-04-23 05:40pm
GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-04-23 05:25pm
No, you are looking too small TRR. The impeachment attempt on Nixon was very unpopular, and Nixon had far better approval ratings than Trump. Our focus should be building an iron clad case, make sure that we have a genuine chance at impeachment, THEN go for impeachment. If the first two aren't done, forget any chance of the Dems winning the elections.
I assume that you can back up all of the claims here?
During the leadup to Nixon resigning over Watergate, this was the numbers for impeachment:
44% YES vs. 42% NO (among GOP, 19% YES & 70% NO)
Basically, at best deadlock.

It was some time later (~3 months) that the 'yes' numbers grew close enough to go through with impeachment.

We are at worse numbers for that.
Weirdly, you seem to have gone from "very unpopular" to "deadlock." Is this intentional?
"Oh no, oh yeah, tell me how can it be so fair
That we dying younger hiding from the police man over there
Just for breathing in the air they wanna leave me in the chair
Electric shocking body rocking beat streeting me to death"

- A.B. Original, Report to the Mist

"I think it’s the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately."
- George Carlin

User avatar
GrosseAdmiralFox
Padawan Learner
Posts: 290
Joined: 2019-01-20 01:28pm

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-04-23 09:22pm

Gandalf wrote:
2019-04-23 09:06pm
Weirdly, you seem to have gone from "very unpopular" to "deadlock." Is this intentional?
I said "Basically, at best deadlock", aka 'the best case scenario'. The more realistic scenarios was that impeachment was unpopular at the time, unpopular enough to cause the best case scenario into being a deadlock.

However, real life rarely does 'best case scenarios' and the other scenarios were basically fails at various magnitudes.

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-24 02:07am

GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-04-23 08:35pm
Image
This might be old, but given the New York Times is oddly on-point so far...
Given the pace of developments, any poll or projection from before the last week is of highly questionable value. This is why I've been desperately searching the web for any polling data on support for impeachment since the Mueller Report was released. So far, I've come up dry, but I'll be sure to post it here when I get something.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-24 02:46am

I'll add that there have been at least three points where the percentage of those polled who supported impeachment exceeded those opposed- once right after Charlotsville, once after the Putin Helsinki meeting, and once at the end of 2017 IIRC.

Unfortunately, the anger faded, apathy set in, and people accepted Trump as the new normal. I wonder (and dread) what it would take to shake people out of that now, but I suspect that if we got something now that had the impact of Charlottsville or Helsinki in terms of shocking people and generating outrage, if those numbers became more favorable than unfavorable or hit 50% again combined with the ammunition Mueller has given Congress, then things would start moving very, very fast.

I just would rather not have to go through another unprecedented outrage first. We know it'll happen sooner or later, because Trump is the bottomless cesspit containing all the dregs of the human soul. Why not just do it now before that happens?
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
Jub
Sith Marauder
Posts: 3602
Joined: 2012-08-06 07:58pm
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Jub » 2019-04-24 03:00am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-04-24 02:46am
Why not just do it now before that happens?
Because for one reason or another the Democrats think that they gain more by not doing so or feel that even if they made an attempt at impeachment, let alone removing Trump from office, it's unlikely to have the desired result. It would be nice if they'd show the same spine they had during the government shutdown on this issue but as is all too common they back down when the thing they need to fight for doesn't offer a tempting enough reward for success.

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-24 03:30am

Jub wrote:
2019-04-24 03:00am
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-04-24 02:46am
Why not just do it now before that happens?
Because for one reason or another the Democrats think that they gain more by not doing so or feel that even if they made an attempt at impeachment, let alone removing Trump from office, it's unlikely to have the desired result. It would be nice if they'd show the same spine they had during the government shutdown on this issue but as is all too common they back down when the thing they need to fight for doesn't offer a tempting enough reward for success.
I think you're overgeneralizing about the Democrats here. The party is very much split down the middle on the issue.

The problem is we'd need nearly unanimous Democratic votes for impeachment in the House, since we can't count on any Republicans to show a hint of conscience.

But I expect that one of the more progressive members will force a vote on it before much longer. Whether it will succeed, I can't say, and it probably depends on how the next few weeks/months play out.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
Jub
Sith Marauder
Posts: 3602
Joined: 2012-08-06 07:58pm
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Jub » 2019-04-24 04:40am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-04-24 03:30am
I think you're overgeneralizing about the Democrats here. The party is very much split down the middle on the issue.
I'm well aware of this fact, but as it stands senior party members are clearly against impeachment and thus the party as a whole would seem to be against it. Until the more progressive members start steering the ship and become the majority of the Democrat senators and representatives the party as a whole will be represented by its long-standing centrist members.

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-24 04:45am

Jub wrote:
2019-04-24 04:40am
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-04-24 03:30am
I think you're overgeneralizing about the Democrats here. The party is very much split down the middle on the issue.
I'm well aware of this fact, but as it stands senior party members are clearly against impeachment and thus the party as a whole would seem to be against it.
I'm not even sure that's the case. The senior party leadership, by and large, are being very, very careful not to commit absolutely to any position on impeachment. The sense I get is that they want to bog down Trump in investigations, and see if in the process they get more evidence for impeachment (or, more cynically, if the electorate switches to favoring impeachment).

I get the sense that for Pelosi and company, impeachment is pretty much a calculus of "What do we think will help win 2020?"
Until the more progressive members start steering the ship and become the majority of the Democrat senators and representatives the party as a whole will be represented by its long-standing centrist members.
Which is a convenient rational for ignoring the progressive elements of the party altogether and collectively vilifying the lot, which will only encourage more "Bernie or Bust" type nonsense and general cynicism and disengagement from politics. Which could ultimately ensure that the progressives never become the majority of the party.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
Jub
Sith Marauder
Posts: 3602
Joined: 2012-08-06 07:58pm
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Jub » 2019-04-24 04:55am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-04-24 04:45am
I'm not even sure that's the case. The senior party leadership, by and large, are being very, very careful not to commit absolutely to any position on impeachment. The sense I get is that they want to bog down Trump in investigations, and see if in the process they get more evidence for impeachment (or, more cynically, if the electorate switches to favoring impeachment).

I get the sense that for Pelosi and company, impeachment is pretty much a calculus of "What do we think will help win 2020?"
They're currently against impeachment as evidenced by them not having pushed for it and their unwillingness to commit to a position on impeachment. Saying anything else is just semantics at this point.
Which is a convenient rational for ignoring the progressive elements of the party altogether and collectively vilifying the lot, which will only encourage more "Bernie or Bust" type nonsense and general cynicism and disengagement from politics. Which could ultimately ensure that the progressives never become the majority of the party.
I'm not American. My views have literally no effect on US politics nor do my posts on this message board. As such, I really don't see why you brought this up.

Ralin
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2609
Joined: 2008-08-28 04:23am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Ralin » 2019-04-24 06:56am

Can someone explain to me why people seem to be talking about impeachment as if it was an one-shot possibility? If the Republican Senate refuses to convict there's nothing I know of stopping the House from starting the process over the next week, and given that this is Trump we're talking about there's never going to be a shortage of new impeachable offenses to charge him with. I'm not even clear on whether the usual rules against double jeopardy apply here.

I assume that the idea is that eventually the public will get sick and tired and start voting against the Representatives that keep bringing it up, but that implies that there aren’t enough voters who hate Trump to keep Democrats who ride his ass in office. Which seems, uhm. Questionable.

User avatar
Zwinmar
Jedi Knight
Posts: 957
Joined: 2005-03-24 11:55am
Location: McPherson, Kansas

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Zwinmar » 2019-04-24 09:43am

From the feeling I am getting: The Democrats have no balls, they are more worried about covering their collective asses than doing what is right and impeaching his ass. So, because they are being reactionary, people are getting real sick of their shit. As a result, I have a horrible feeling that the cheetos will be reelected.

So apathy? Yeah, I would say so. They talk big but when it comes time to act, they do not because it isn't convenient for them at that moment. While, at the same time, they also alienate those who agree with them except on certain key issues, such as gun control.

User avatar
Jub
Sith Marauder
Posts: 3602
Joined: 2012-08-06 07:58pm
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by Jub » 2019-04-24 10:16am

Zwinmar wrote:
2019-04-24 09:43am
From the feeling I am getting: The Democrats have no balls, they are more worried about covering their collective asses than doing what is right and impeaching his ass. So, because they are being reactionary, people are getting real sick of their shit. As a result, I have a horrible feeling that the cheetos will be reelected.

So apathy? Yeah, I would say so. They talk big but when it comes time to act, they do not because it isn't convenient for them at that moment. While, at the same time, they also alienate those who agree with them except on certain key issues, such as gun control.
Plus unlike the Republicans, the Dems can't agree on a course of action and thus split their effective political capital while the GoP pools theirs on a very narrow set of concerns. When one side is knocking the building down and the other side is plastering over cracks in a dozen different rooms it's clear which side will have a greater influence on things.

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-24 09:27pm

Zwinmar wrote:
2019-04-24 09:43am
From the feeling I am getting: The Democrats have no balls, they are more worried about covering their collective asses than doing what is right and impeaching his ass. So, because they are being reactionary, people are getting real sick of their shit. As a result, I have a horrible feeling that the cheetos will be reelected.

So apathy? Yeah, I would say so. They talk big but when it comes time to act, they do not because it isn't convenient for them at that moment. While, at the same time, they also alienate those who agree with them except on certain key issues, such as gun control.
First, again, stop acting like the Democrats are a united block on this. There is a wide range of positions on impeachment in the party. There are some who are dragging their feet due to fear of political backlash, but there is a growing push for impeachment, and I can almost guarantee there will be a vote on the House floor on it before election day, probably before the end of the year.

There are also some who are open to impeachment, but want to conduct further hearings and subpoenas to build a stronger case. Personally I think that's a bit needless when the President regularly commits impeachable offenses in public, but its not quite the same as a hard "no" to impeachment.

Also, while it is possible I suppose that Trump's poll numbers will skyrocket before election day, or that some numbnuts like Schultz will turn it into a three-way race, right now I would cry fraud immediately if Trump won, based on his current poll numbers. No President in recent (meaning going back several decades) history has won reelection with an approval rating below fifty percent. Trump's is below forty, and he's facing a primary challenge in his own party.

People who are going to stay home or vote Trump or third party at this point, after the last two years, just because there's a reluctance to impeach, have already fully drunk the "BOTH SIDES!" Kool-Aid the Kremlin's bots have been handing out, and are just looking for an excuse.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
GrosseAdmiralFox
Padawan Learner
Posts: 290
Joined: 2019-01-20 01:28pm

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-04-25 12:18am

Problem, TRR, is the fact that the Dems need to convince the 'goldfish' voters of impeachment being a good thing, and those people need a lot to be convinced. Trump is the sort of opponent that can squash single, obvious, things but can't do shit against multiple, not-obvious, things and by doing the latter he keeps our investigations in the spotlight because of narcissism (while harming the GOP in the process). By ensuring that we've got mountains of evidence via multiple, not-obvious, investigations protected by Congressional Oversight, we can win this.

An immediate impeachment is only likely to backfire because of the LAST time a party did impeachment and failed caused them to bleed quite a bit in the election cycle afterwards.

So with that data in mind, we have to take care of not falling into the GOP's hands. I'm for impeachment, just not now, not without mountains of evidence we can use to get the 'goldfish' on our side. We need those goldfish to win this, and using Trump's own weaknesses to our advantage while we gather everything to take him down is the best course of action. We still have to cover the Counter-Intelligence and the ~20 or so other investigations (both federal and state) while preparing for the 2020 elections.

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-25 12:23am

The Trumpers will never be won over, of course.

The people we need to win over are the 14% or so who supported impeachment a year and a half ago, but between then and last March decided "Eh, defending Nazis, colluding with Russia and locking little children in cages wasn't really that bad." Basically, the people whose outrage circuits got burned out.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-25 03:07am

Trump is considering claiming executive privilege to defy Congressional subpoenas, and has said that if impeached, he would challenge the legality of the impeachment in the Supreme Court:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-form ... -1.4392590
WASHINGTON -- Just say no.

As House Democrats ramp up their post-Mueller investigations into U.S. President Donald Trump, his strategy for responding is simple: Resist on every legal front. The administration is straining to hold off congressional investigators, including their efforts to obtain the president's tax returns, his business' financial records and testimony from former senior aides.

"We're fighting all the subpoenas," Trump declared on Wednesday. And if House members go all the way and try to impeach him, he said he would "head to the Supreme Court" for help.

Portraying himself as unjustly persecuted in the aftermath of special counsel Robert Mueller's probe, Trump said his White House would refuse to co-operate with further congressional investigation.

"I thought after two years we'd be finished with it. No, now the House goes and starts subpoenaing," Trump told reporters on the White House lawn, asserting the probes have been commissioned solely for political advantage.

"Look, these aren't, like, impartial people," he said. "The Democrats are trying to win 2020."

"The only way they can luck out is by constantly going after me on nonsense," Trump said. "But they should be really focused on legislation."

Washington has spent a week sifting through the aftermath of Mueller's report, which did not find a criminal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia to help him win the 2016 election but reached no conclusion on whether he obstructed justice. Attorney General William Barr later said the president was not guilty of obstruction.

TRUMP: FIGHTING ALL SUBPOENAS
CNN,POOL
President Trump: The only way the Democrats can beat me in 2020 is ...
Published at: 8:46 AM, Wed Apr 24 2019
Play Video
Trump has railed against Mueller's report, even resorting to public profanity in dismissing it, but has also embraced it, claiming exoneration and painting any other attempt as partisan overreach.

"You want to see the nonpartisan, definitive, conclusive taxpayer-funded lengthy unobstructed, unimpeded, un-interfered with investigation? You just saw it and it's called the Mueller report," senior counsellor Kellyanne Conway said Wednesday.

But the Democrats, while debating whether to proceed down a path toward impeachment, have ratcheted up their own probes. The White House, in turn, has moved to stop them, laying the groundwork for what could be months of legal and political battles.

"We're going to evaluate each request as they come, but we are not going to allow for congressional harassment," said Trump attorney Jay Sekulow. "And in that context, when appropriate, we will respond appropriately -- which will include litigation when necessary."

Over just the past few days, the White House has thrown up a series of stop signs.

The Trump Organization filed a lawsuit against the chairman of the House Oversight Committee to stop his efforts to obtain the company's financial records.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin ignored Tuesday's House deadline to turn over the president's tax returns, instead asserting that he will decide next month.
The White House failed to provide its former personnel security director, Carl Kline, to testify before Congress over how some West Wing aides, including Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, obtained security clearances, leading the House to hold Kline in contempt.
The White House asserted it will fight any congressional subpoena, including one for former White House Counsel Don McGahn, an important figure in the Mueller investigation, to appear and provide documents.
"We're going to fight everything; we already gave them every document and witness we have," said Rudy Giuliani, another of the president's attorneys. "Why do we have to do it again?"

The administration has considered asserting executive privilege over witnesses, even some who previously co-operated with Mueller.

While the White House has no legal ability to block the subpoena issued to McGahn, the administration could try to assert executive privilege over particular testimony it believes would hamper private presidential conversations, according to Washington defence lawyer Andrew Herman, who represents clients in congressional investigations.

Democrats have argued that the law is on their side on a variety of fronts, including an Internal Revenue Code section that gives the House Ways and Means Committee chairman authority to obtain tax returns. But Herman contended that for the White House, "I think reality is on their side. The lack of law enforcement options that the House is going to have is on their side."

The House could sue. Or it could make a referral to prosecutors over a contempt finding, but such Justice Department prosecutions are rare.

The White House is correct in arguing that subpoenas it receives must have a legitimate legislative purpose, but that is often a low hurdle for a congressional committee to surmount.

House Democrats are hardly surprised by Trump's stance.

A fierce internal debate has erupted over whether to pursue impeachment, a course that Speaker Nancy Pelosi has counselled against. But her party's lawmakers have already signalled they will vote to hold reluctant witnesses in contempt of Congress and are preparing to eventually go to court to force testimony and co-operation. Democrats also argue that by refusing to co-operate with Congress, Trump is obstructing additional investigations.

If the White House forces McGahn to defy the subpoena to appear before the House Judiciary Committee, Chairman Jerrold Nadler says it will "represent one more act of obstruction by an administration desperate to prevent the public from talking about the president's behaviour."

Trump's strategy for fighting impeachment at the Supreme Court could run into a roadblock: The high court itself said in 1993 that the framers of the U.S. Constitution didn't intend for the courts to have the power to review impeachment proceedings. The Supreme Court ruled that impeachment and removal from office is Congress' duty alone.

The Mueller investigation has become both a playbook and a cover story for White House officials.

Soon after the special counsel's appointment, the White House, led by former attorneys Ty Cobb and John Dowd, opted to co-operate, believing that turning over witnesses and documents would bring about a speedy resolution. But the Trump legal team abruptly shifted course last year, instead choosing to stop working with Mueller while unleashing a scathing public relations attack on the probe, a strategy Trump and his allies are recycling against the Democratic investigations.

------

Lemire reported from New York. AP writers Darlene Superville and Mary Claire Jalonick in Washington contributed to this report.
So, more obstruction, another impeachable offense committed in the light of day.

But I think we can safely say that Trump is scared he's going to be impeached, at least.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-25 03:16am

You know what? Congress should subpoena Trump to testify. When he refuses, go to the Supreme Court. There's a risk there, that the Supreme Court will rule that the President can't be subpoenaed (that, IIRC, is Kavanaugh's position, at least), but if they rule in Congress's favor, then they can either a) charge Trump with Contempt of Congress and impeach, if he refuses to show, or b) charge him with Perjury/Lying to Congress and impeach, if he does and inevitably lies under oath.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-26 07:31pm

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/31-trum ... d=62659425

So, we've got some post-report polling on impeachment, and I'm afraid its not good:
Donald Trump's approval rating is essentially unchanged at a historically weak 39 percent after the release of the Mueller report, just three in 10 Americans accept the president’s claim to have been exonerated and 58 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the president lied to the public about the matters the special counsel investigated.

Nonetheless, support for impeachment is at a new low, 37 percent, in the national survey, albeit not significantly different from earlier this year. It rises to 62 percent among Democrats but falls sharply to 36 percent among independents and just 10 percent among Republicans. And while nearly six in 10 overall say Trump lied, there’s a closer division – 47-41 percent – on whether or not he obstructed justice.

The public overall appears cautiously supportive of the Mueller report, which Trump has characterized as “a total hit job.” Fifty-one percent in this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, call the report fair and even-handed – just a bare majority, albeit far more than the 21 percent who say it’s unfair. Still, that leaves many, 28 percent, who are withholding judgment on whether Mueller’s report is fair or not.

While criticizing the report, Trump has claimed “complete and total exoneration” in its findings. Again the public’s response differs: Thirty-one percent say the report cleared Trump of all wrongdoing, almost entirely an ingathering of his political supporters. Many more, 53 percent, say the report did not exonerate Trump. An additional 16 percent have no opinion.

There’s evidence beyond his approval rating that the Mueller report isn’t moving many people off their preexisting political positions. Americans are twice as likely to say the report makes them think more negatively than more positively of the Trump administration, but the numbers are relatively low, 23 and 11 percent, respectively. Instead, 58 percent say their opinion of the administration is unchanged.

Looking ahead to 2020, nearly half the public, 46 percent, say the report won’t be a factor in their vote for president. Of the rest, many more say it makes them more likely to oppose Trump for re-election than to support him, 36 vs. 14 percent. That’s a broad 22-point net negative for Trump, although demographically many in this group look unlikely to support him anyway.

Election integrity is a substantial concern. Forty-two percent say Russian interference undermined the legitimacy of the 2016 election, although 49 percent think it didn’t rise to that level. And more, 53 percent, say possible interference by Russia and other countries threatens the legitimacy of the 2020 election. (Those who say so divide on whether or not this is a major threat.)

Thirty-nine percent of Americans approve of Trump’s overall performance as president, a number that’s been essentially steady across his presidency, ranging narrowly from 42 percent just after he took office to 36 percent on multiple occasions. His career average approval rating remains the lowest on record for a president at this point in office in polls dating to the Truman administration in the mid-1940s.

Disapproval of the president’s job performance, at 54 percent, likewise is not significantly different from his career average, 57 percent. That said, it’s down from its peak, 60 percent last August and 59 percent in November 2017.

Trump’s approval rating is sharply partisan, peaking at 78 percent among Republicans, 83 percent among highly conservative Americans and 77 percent among evangelical white Protestants, a core Republican group. Those compare with 6 percent among Democrats and 9 percent among liberals. But it’s the political middle that turns the tide against Trump: Among independents, 40 percent approve of his job performance; among moderates, 30 percent.

That said, 40 percent approval from independents is a numerical high for Trump in that group, and up 8 percentage points since January. That increase has been counteracted by a 6-point decline among Democrats.

These divisions are apparent across other population groups. A wide gender gap remains, with Trump’s approval rating 15 points higher among men than among women, 47 percent vs. 32 percent. His 51 percent approval among whites drops to 20 percent among nonwhites overall, including 20 percent among Hispanics and 10 percent among blacks.

Strong criticism of the president continues to outpace strong support: Forty-five percent of Americans strongly disapprove of his work in office while 28 percent strongly approve. That 17-point gap in intensity of sentiment is near the average, 22 points, since he took office.

Support for impeachment proceedings against Trump is down from a peak of 49 percent when first asked in an ABC/Post poll last August; it was 40 percent in January and, as noted, is 37 percent now. A slightly different question on Bill Clinton – whether he should be impeached and removed from office – peaked at 41 percent support in September 1998 and averaged 31 percent from August to December that year.

Support for impeachment is down since August across demographic and ideological groups. Most striking is a 28-point drop among college-educated white women, from 54 percent support to 26 percent. Support among women overall has dropped 16 points, from 57 to 41 percent. It’s been steadier among men, 34 percent now compared with 40 percent last summer.

Notably, intensity of sentiment on impeachment runs in the opposite direction as intensity in Trump approval. In this case, more strongly oppose beginning impeachment proceedings, 43 percent, than strongly support it, 29 percent. That reflects a 10-point rise in strong opposition since August, and an 11-point decline in strong support.

As with Trump’s approval rating, sharp partisanship marks views on impeachment. Support for starting impeachment proceedings is highest among blacks (69 percent), Hispanics (64 percent), Democrats (62 percent) and liberals (60 percent), while opposition peaks at 87 percent among Republicans.

The difference in strength of sentiment is stark – 53 percent of Democrats strongly support impeachment, while 78 percent of Republicans are strongly opposed. Similarly, 47 percent of liberals strongly support it, while 65 percent of conservatives are strongly opposed.

Further, 59 percent of independents and 55 percent of moderates think Congress should not begin impeachment proceedings.

As noted, there’s a closer split on whether Trump tried to interfere with the Russia investigation in a way that amounts to obstruction of justice, 47-41 percent. Again, sharp party lines are drawn. Eight in 10 Democrats and 73 percent of liberals see obstruction. Three-quarters to eight in 10 in Trump’s core support groups don’t – 80 percent of strong conservatives and 77 percent of Republicans and evangelical white Protestants alike.

Political divisions, naturally, also mark responses to the Mueller report. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats don’t think it cleared Trump of all wrongdoing; this drops to half of independents and a quarter of Republicans. Six in 10 Republicans and three in 10 independents think the report exonerated Trump; just 6 percent of Democrats agree.

Those divisions exist despite similar confidence in the report across party lines – 56 percent of Republicans, 53 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents call it fair and even-handed.

Partisan divisions reemerge when it comes to Trump’s response to the investigation. As noted, 58 percent overall think he lied to the American public about the matters under investigation by Mueller; this rises to 61 percent including those who volunteer that he lied some and told the truth some. Ninety percent of Democrats think he lied, while 69 percent of Republicans think he told the truth. Among independents, 28 percent think Trump told the truth, while 61 percent say the president lied.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 22-25, 2019, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 29-26-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. See details on the survey’s methodology here.
I blame Barr. His summary, followed by the subsequent delay in releasing the report. Although I also think that there were some unrealistic expectations for the Mueller report that made it seem like an anti-climax when its actually a big fucking deal (I mean, I expected more than this, but there were people out there expecting him to be arrested for treason, and that was never going to happen). Especially when two years of Trump have made a lot of people dangerously numb to this shit. Basically, Trump is so consistently bad that anything short of an explicit accusation of treason from Mueller would have seemed like no big deal to a lot of people.

The most frightening thing is that this poll seems to show his approval rating improving as well.

Unfortunately, this ought to give the coward wing of the Democratic Party a fine excuse to sit on their arses and punt their Constitutional duty to the voters next year, no doubt assuring themselves that "Trump will be easy to beat", just like last time.

Edit: This should also reinforce a point that I think a dangerous number of people STILL haven't gotten: Trump is not incompetent when it comes to manipulating the media and political system. Its easy to dismiss him as just a buffoon, because he plays the part so well and is willfully ignorant about many things, but he is good at playing the media and political system, and he has people around him who are if anything even better at it.

His opponents have consistently underestimated him, and paid the price.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
aerius
Charismatic Cult Leader
Posts: 14412
Joined: 2002-08-18 07:27pm
Location: YHM

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by aerius » 2019-04-26 07:38pm

Couldn't come up with an impeachable offence.
Wonders why there's no support for impeachment.

Goddamnit, there must be a reason for this, but I just can't put my finger on it!
Image
aerius: I'll vote for you if you sleep with me. :)
Lusankya: Deal!
Say, do you want it to be a threesome with your wife? Or a foursome with your wife and sister-in-law? I'm up for either. :P

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-26 07:54pm

aerius wrote:
2019-04-26 07:38pm
Couldn't come up with an impeachable offence.
Wonders why there's no support for impeachment.

Goddamnit, there must be a reason for this, but I just can't put my finger on it!
I think you and I both know that you are grossly misrepresenting the situation, as per your usual practice.

Mueller basically said: "I can't indict Trump because of DOJ policy, and it wouldn't be fair to accuse him of a crime when we can't give him a speedy trial, but here is all the evidence pertaining to obstruction of justice (cue massive list of ways Trump obstructed justice), and here's how Trump attempted to obstruct justice and failed only because of subordinates disobeying his orders (attempting to commit a crime is also a crime). Mueller even pointedly noted that he could not exonerate Trump, and that others (Congress or prosecutors after Trump was no longer PotUS) could act where he couldn't.

To portray that as "They couldn't come up with an impeachable offense" rather than "Mueller couldn't indict because his hands were tied by DOJ policy and his boss being a Trump lapdog" is not a fact, its not even an interpretation- its a lie. And it is a lie which is basically identical to the official White House narrative.

Trump is an authoritarian and a criminal, who obstructed justice to put himself above the law and undermine all checks on his power, in addition to his numerous other authoritarian abuses of power*. That the apathy of the electorate and the cowardice of Congress and the extraordinary power and immunity which US law gives the President may yet allow him to escape consequences for that, and to successfully destroy what little remains of the rule of law and democracy in America, is not a vindication of him- it is a tragedy and a farce.

You are defending him, repeating his narrative, and you are therefore complicit in supporting his actions, and his authoritarian aspirations. For someone who insists that he's not a Trumper, you sure do consistently defend the legality of his actions, parrot the narrative of him and his lackies almost to the letter, and attack his critics. And frankly, I do not care if your reasons for doing so are about liking Trump or about "USA BAD!" and thinking that anything remotely related to criticism of the Kremlin is imperialism, or whatever. I Don't. Fucking. Care. The result is the same, which is that you are carrying water for fascism.


*Here, I'll summarize your rebuttal for you:

"TRR bad hysterical liar McCarthyist Mueller fake news witch hunt :wanker:!"


*Note that it is widely held that an offense doesn't have to be criminal to be impeachable, but that any abuse of Presidential power can qualify- which means that by asserting Trump has done nothing impeachable, you are not only denying that he did anything criminal, but are denying that he abused the power of his office or behaved in an autocratic fashion, which means that you are condoning his autocratic attempts to undermine democracy and the rule of law on a moral as well as a legal level.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-26 09:00pm

Not everyone is afraid to do their duty- five more Congressmembers have signed onto Rep. Talib's impeachment resolution as co-sponsors, bringing the total to 7:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-impe ... esolution/
Five new cosponsors have signed onto a House resolution to begin impeachment proceedings against the president in the wake of the report by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Rep. Rashida Tlaib introduced the resolution before the report was released with only one cosponsor, Rep. Al Green.


Although the special counsel concluded that the Trump campaign did not conspire with the Russians to influence the 2016 election, the report did outline several ties between campaign officials and individuals associated with the Russian government. Mueller also made no determination as to whether President Trump obstructed justice, but detailed several instances where obstruction may have occurred.

Tlaib, a freshman Democrat, has been a vocal opponent of Mr. Trump. She made waves earlier this year when she said that it was time to "impeach the motherf---er," referring to Mr. Trump. Reps. Filemon Vela, Jared Huffman, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Ayanna Pressley have now also signed on as cosponsors.

Ocasio-Cortez and Omar in particular have emerged as powerful progressive voices in the House, and are frequently criticized by Mr. Trump and other Republicans. Omar recently stirred controversy within her own caucus by making comments about Israel which some interpreted as anti-Semitic.

Mr. Trump has said that he would challenge any impeachment proceedings in the Supreme Court if Democrats attempted to remove him from office. However, most Democrats -- including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- have expressed caution about launching impeachment proceedings.

Speaking at the TIME 100 Summit in New York Tuesday, Pelosi said there are "many ways to hold the president of the United States accountable."

"This is about being totally free from passion, from prejudice, from politics, it's about the presentation of the facts. And when we the facts we'll have a better idea of how we go forward," Pelosi said. "Impeachment is one of the most divisive paths that we could go down in our country. But if the path of fact-finding takes us there, we have no choice. But we're not there yet."

Mr. Trump has frequently condemned the report since it was released, and called it a "coup" in an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity Thursday night. "This was an attempted overthrow of the United States government," he said.
Pelosi, meanwhile, wants more investigation first, because apparently the President committing impeachable offenses publicly on a routine basis isn't enough for her to make up her mind. :roll:
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

User avatar
The Romulan Republic
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 18888
Joined: 2008-10-15 01:37am

Re: Redacted Mueller report to be released tomorrow.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-04-27 03:16am

Another article, this time from the Chicago Tribune, noting that Republicans suffered relatively little political backlash for impeaching Clinton on far weaker grounds when he was a far more popular President, and that not impeaching risks depressing Democratic turnout, in addition to being bad government:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opi ... story.html
For more than a week now I’ve carefully considered all the reasons put forth why congressional Democrats shouldn’t begin impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump.

1. They will lose in the end.

Even if the Democratic House approves articles of impeachment, there’s no way at least 20 Senate Republicans will ever join the Democrats in providing the two-thirds majority vote needed to convict and remove Trump from office.

2. Most people don’t want it.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll taken the weekend after the April 18 release of a redacted version of the report of special counsel Robert Mueller shows just 34 percent of voters favor the commencement of impeachment proceedings.

3. It might backfire on the Democrats.

More investigations and hearings will look like petulant zealotry and distract from the positive message that Democrats must offer if they’re going to oust Trump in the conventional way by winning the White House in 2020. The drama and acrimony will also harden and energize Trump supporters.

Together they constitute one elemental argument:

Impeachment is bad politics.

And maybe that’s true. Certainly it’s futile if the goal is removing Trump from office before the end of his first term in January 2021.

But while the public doesn’t seem to have the stomach for all the drama and recrimination of impeachment hearings, the public also doesn’t seem to have much of a stomach for Trump: His historically low job approval ratings are mired in the low 40s (39 percent in that Politico/Morning Consult poll).

Didn’t Republicans pay a political price for impeaching Bill Clinton in 1998? Not really. Even though Clinton was far more popular then than Trump is now — his job approval numbers held fairly steady in the mid-60s before, during and after the failed effort to oust him — and his transgression, lying under oath about sex, was minor compared to the bill of particulars against Trump, the GOP won the presidency and maintained control of both the House and Senate in the subsequent election.

Impeaching Trump risks galvanizing the staunch Republican base that supports him seemingly no matter what he says or does.

But not impeaching Trump risks deflating Democrats, 59 percent of whom tell pollsters they want the process to go forward.

Can we dispense with the pearl-clutching about impeachment increasing partisan rancor and polarization? This nation could hardly get more polarized and rancorous, and it’s beyond absurd to contend that Congress would be able to take action on the so-called kitchen-table economic issues that interest most Americans if Democrats failed to act on the damning evidence in the Mueller report that Trump repeatedly obstructed justice.

Yes, it’s possible the voting public would punish the Democrats for taking a strong stand against all the ways Trump has disregarded and trampled on the law.

It’s possible a significant number of voters will say, “Sure, there’s massive proof that Trump is a lying, narcissistic con man and aspiring tyrant, and if the Democrats would just let it go, I’d gladly support them.”

I doubt it. But either way, the Democrats should risk it. Because another elemental argument should carry the day:

Impeachment is good government.

The framers provided for it with just this sort of situation in mind — a president exhibiting little regard for the rule of law and separation of powers whose self-interested maneuverings pose a growing existential threat to the republic.

Checking such behavior is the duty of Congress. Outsourcing that job to voters is cowardly, particularly when voters won’t be able to have their say on the matter for more than 18 months.

And shying from that duty today will leave a frightening question for history: How low are we willing to set the bar? If these allegations and this evidence against Trump are insufficient to justify beginning formal impeachment proceedings, then what will ever justify it?

Even an unsuccessful and unpopular impeachment will send a signal that principle must outweigh practicality in the face of certain threats. It will protect us against the next president who is tempted by autocracy and disdainful of democratic institutions.

If the feckless Democrats stand down in hopes of winning the hearts of swing-state voters who are just sick of all the political rancor, they deserve to lose next year.
I would disagree with the final sentence, if only because ensuring Trump's win to punish the Democrats for not doing enough to stop Trump would be the height of self-destructive idiocy.

But I'd be interested to hear the anti-impeachment crowd's rebuttal, if they have one beyond simply asserting without proof that impeachment will make the Democrats lose.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxT8CM8XntA

Post Reply