https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/02/politics ... index.html
September should narrow the field somewhat. It looks like Castro will probably make it over the threshold (good). Steyer is a maybe, as is Yang (I'd like Yang to hold on a bit longer, just to give basic income more air time). There's a fair chance Gabbard and Hickenlooper will get knocked out, if their polling numbers don't rise (good riddance to both). DeLaney, Bullock, Williamson, Ryan, Gillibrand, DeBlasio, Bennet (am I forgetting anyone?) all look like they're up shit creek without a paddle. I don't think any of them will be much missed.(CNN)With the second debate wrapped up, the third Democratic debate hosted by ABC and Univision will happen during the second week of September. The candidates are still working to qualify and have another month to reach the polling threshold and grassroots fundraising thresholds as laid out by the Democratic National Committee.
Eight candidates have qualified for the debates in September: 11 candidates on the fundraising side and eight on the polling side. Candidates need to reach both to be on the stage.
Candidates who have qualified for the September debates in both polling and fundraising:
Former Vice President Joe Biden
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
Mayor Pete Buttigieg
California Sen. Kamala Harris
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
There are now 11 Democrats who say they received contributions from at least 130,000 individuals, coming from at least 400 unique donors in 20 or more states.
Businessman Andrew Yang, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii have reached their fundraising threshold, but still need to hit their polling minimum to qualify. Castro and Yang have each received three of their four necessary polls. Billionaire Tom Steyer has two qualifying polls, and Gabbard and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and each have one. All other candidates haven't reached above 2% in any qualifying polls.
The DNC requires that all polls be conducted by an approved pollster, released between June 28 and August 28, 2019, conducted nationally or in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada, and fit a certain question structure.
The candidate must get above 2% support in four or more polls of this nature, and they cannot be conducted by the same pollster in the same region. There is still a month for candidates who have not yet hit the polling threshold to do so.
What interests me most is who the drop outs' support will go to. A lot of moderates dropping out could see their support solidify behind Biden, though some might also go to Buttigieg or Harris, for example. On the other hand, Yang or Gabbard getting knocked out might mean another one or two percent to Sanders or Warren.