Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

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Jub
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Re: Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

Post by Jub » 2019-01-25 10:38pm

MKSheppard wrote:
2019-01-25 10:26pm
Jub wrote:
2019-01-23 08:57pm
Lonestar wrote:
2019-01-23 06:50pm
Most firearms used in violent crimes, even in strict gun control regime states, usually originate in the state itself. NY, MD, IL, and Calil like to blame other states for it.
Prove it.
https://www.atf.gov/file/119321/download

Total Number of Firearms Recovered and Traced in Maryland by Calendar Year 2016
8,665

Top 15 Source States for Firearms with a Maryland Recovery January 1, 2016 – December 31, 2016
MD: 2,855
VA: 780
PA: 362
WV: 221
NC: 219
SC: 125
GA: 167
FL: 142
TX: 68
CA: 58
[omitted]
(1) Firearm traces are designed to assist law enforcement authorities in conducting investigations by tracking the sale and
possession of specific firearms. Law enforcement agencies may request firearms traces for any reason, and those
reasons are not necessarily reported to the Federal Government. Not all firearms used in crime are traced and not all
firearms traced are used in crime.

(2) Firearms selected for tracing are not chosen for purposes of determining which types, makes or models of firearms are
used for illicit purposes. The firearms selected do not constitute a random sample and should not be considered
representative of the larger universe of all firearms used by criminals, or any subset of that universe. Firearms are
normally traced to the first retail seller, and sources reported for firearms traced do not necessarily represent the
sources or methods by which firearms in general are acquired for use in crime.

That doesn't seem to prove anything based on its own disclaimers.

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Steel
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Re: Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

Post by Steel » 2019-01-27 06:49pm

Jub wrote:
2019-01-25 10:38pm
MKSheppard wrote:
2019-01-25 10:26pm
Jub wrote:
2019-01-23 08:57pm


Prove it.
https://www.atf.gov/file/119321/download

Total Number of Firearms Recovered and Traced in Maryland by Calendar Year 2016
8,665

Top 15 Source States for Firearms with a Maryland Recovery January 1, 2016 – December 31, 2016
MD: 2,855
VA: 780
PA: 362
WV: 221
NC: 219
SC: 125
GA: 167
FL: 142
TX: 68
CA: 58
[omitted]
(1) Firearm traces are designed to assist law enforcement authorities in conducting investigations by tracking the sale and
possession of specific firearms. Law enforcement agencies may request firearms traces for any reason, and those
reasons are not necessarily reported to the Federal Government. Not all firearms used in crime are traced and not all
firearms traced are used in crime.

(2) Firearms selected for tracing are not chosen for purposes of determining which types, makes or models of firearms are
used for illicit purposes. The firearms selected do not constitute a random sample and should not be considered
representative of the larger universe of all firearms used by criminals, or any subset of that universe. Firearms are
normally traced to the first retail seller, and sources reported for firearms traced do not necessarily represent the
sources or methods by which firearms in general are acquired for use in crime.

That doesn't seem to prove anything based on its own disclaimers.
Additionally, those stats show that over 40% (2,142 of 4,997, 43%) of those guns came from outside the state - the fact that there are 3,600 that were traced and not included in your table presented here could mean that the proportion of out of state weapons was as high as 65% of the full 8,665 gun sample. I leave it to you to dig and find out what happens to the rest of the [omitted] data.

If anything, these numbers convince me that criminals are surprisingly likely to bring in weapons from out of state: even when guns can be obtained in the state, a good half of them still bring them in from outside! Looks like you need a hard customs border to prevent movements, so a full national ban is essential.
Apparently nobody can see you without a signature.

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MKSheppard
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Re: Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

Post by MKSheppard » 2019-01-27 08:29pm

Steel wrote:
2019-01-27 06:49pm
If anything, these numbers convince me that criminals are surprisingly likely to bring in weapons from out of state: even when guns can be obtained in the state, a good half of them still bring them in from outside!
Fun fact; #3 state likely to produce crime handguns in Maryland -- Pennsylvania -- has had 100% handgun registration for a while.

All Handguns that are sold via Federally Licensed Firearms dealers in PA, have a copy of the sales transmitted to the PA State Police; and PA requires sales of handguns between PA residents to go through a FFL (no private sales, gun show loophole "closed" for handguns).

Yet with that, they're #3 on the list. :mrgreen:
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944

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Jub
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Re: Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

Post by Jub » 2019-01-27 08:35pm

MKSheppard wrote:
2019-01-27 08:29pm
Steel wrote:
2019-01-27 06:49pm
If anything, these numbers convince me that criminals are surprisingly likely to bring in weapons from out of state: even when guns can be obtained in the state, a good half of them still bring them in from outside!
Fun fact; #3 state likely to produce crime handguns in Maryland -- Pennsylvania -- has had 100% handgun registration for a while.

All Handguns that are sold via Federally Licensed Firearms dealers in PA, have a copy of the sales transmitted to the PA State Police; and PA requires sales of handguns between PA residents to go through a FFL (no private sales, gun show loophole "closed" for handguns).

Yet with that, they're #3 on the list. :mrgreen:
You're making it seem as if you expect a weapon to be bought out of state and used immediately. Given the flawed methodology of your only source of data, it's just as likely for a weapon to have been transferred many times over a period of years before arriving in Maryland. Those stats need to include the original date of sale and all know transfers of ownership, lawful or otherwise, to be worth even a little bit.

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Steel
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Re: Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

Post by Steel » 2019-01-28 10:52am

Jub wrote:
2019-01-27 08:35pm
MKSheppard wrote:
2019-01-27 08:29pm
Steel wrote:
2019-01-27 06:49pm
If anything, these numbers convince me that criminals are surprisingly likely to bring in weapons from out of state: even when guns can be obtained in the state, a good half of them still bring them in from outside!
Fun fact; #3 state likely to produce crime handguns in Maryland -- Pennsylvania -- has had 100% handgun registration for a while.

All Handguns that are sold via Federally Licensed Firearms dealers in PA, have a copy of the sales transmitted to the PA State Police; and PA requires sales of handguns between PA residents to go through a FFL (no private sales, gun show loophole "closed" for handguns).

Yet with that, they're #3 on the list. :mrgreen:
You're making it seem as if you expect a weapon to be bought out of state and used immediately. Given the flawed methodology of your only source of data, it's just as likely for a weapon to have been transferred many times over a period of years before arriving in Maryland. Those stats need to include the original date of sale and all know transfers of ownership, lawful or otherwise, to be worth even a little bit.
Looking a bit closer at the slide show, it seems they have a "Time to crime" slide, that indicates that over 75% of the guns had a "time to crime" of over 3 years.

The original assertion was that state gun controls would be of little use as criminals would be able to bring in guns from out of state. The stats MKSheppard provided indicate that at least 40%, probably as high as 65%* of guns used in crime in MD do come from over the border. Only 35% could be positively identified as coming from within the state.

This seems to indicate that guns crossing state lines is a significant and perhaps majority source of weapons used in crimes in a state with gun control policies. This means that meaningful gun control should be tackled at the national level, as state control policies are ineffective without border checks.

*and I would think closer to the upper end, as I assert that weapons where the state was not identified are more likely to come from outside the state, and more likely to originate somewhere with less gun controls.
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MKSheppard
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Re: Stunning Successes of Policing in Baltimore this Year

Post by MKSheppard » 2019-02-03 02:50pm

On May 23, 1988, Maryland enacted the first state law in America prohibiting the manufacture and sale of Saturday Night Specials and non-detectable handguns.

This was done via establishing a "handgun roster" of approved handguns that could be sold in MD.

More Detail

"Maryland's new law creates a nine-member Board which will determine which types of handguns can be used for legitimate law-enforcement, sporting, or self-defense uses. The Board will place these handguns on a Handgun Roster which will be available to the public and will be distributed to gun dealers twice a year. After January 1, 1990, no person in Maryland may either manufacture any handgun not on the Handgun Roster, or sell or offer to sell any handgun not on the Handgun Roster manufactured after January 1, 1985."

Link 2

"The handgun roster is compiled by the Handgun Roster Board (“Board”), an entity of the Maryland Department of State Police (“DSP”) made up of 11 members (the Secretary of the DSP and ten appointees of the Governor who are knowledgeable in the field) who hold terms of four years.3 The Board must consider the following characteristics of a handgun in determining whether it should be placed on the roster: concealability, ballistic accuracy, weight, quality of materials, quality of manufacture, reliability as to safety, caliber, detectability (vis-à-vis airport and courthouse security equipment standards), and utility for legitimate sporting activities, self- protection, or law enforcement uses.4 The Board must “consider carefully” each characteristic, and must not place “undue weight on any one characteristic.”5"

So why mention this now?

In April 2015; the MD Handgun Board approved for sale within Maryland the Phoenix Arms HP25A -- a modern Saturday Night Special :twisted:

Link

"The best concealed carry gun is the one you have on you”…unless that gun is a Phoenix HP25A, then you might as well carry a rock. "

Best part is Phoenix Arms' pedigree:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Arms

"A predecessor company owned by George Jennings, Raven Arms, burned down in 1991, after which Jennings retired and sold his designs to Phoenix.[1] Phoenix was founded and owned by Jennings’ ex-wife, his children, four of his grandchildren, and by Raven's former general manager. Phoenix is described by the U.S. BATF as one of the "Ring of Fire" companies."

MSRP of the HP25A is about $125; it retails about $115 on the used market.

:mrgreen: :angelic:
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944

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