2020. It Begins.

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The Romulan Republic
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2020. It Begins.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-13 03:26pm

Well, we all know that in perpetual election land, with the Midterms out of the way (more or less), it's time to start jockeying for the 2020 Presidential nomination in earnest:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/po ... c8fca13f66
It’s barely a week since the 2018 midterm elections, yet it seems like every day someone else lets it be known that he or she is exploring the possibility of running in the Democratic presidential primaries in 2020. “We’re thinking about it,” Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told the Columbus Dispatch in an interview published Monday morning. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, according to CNBC, has hired former John McCain 2008 campaign manager Steve Schmidt. And on Monday, Richard Ojeda, who lost out in a West Virginia congressional race, launched his presidential bid.

It goes on and on. Billionaire former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg changed his voter registration to the Democratic Party last month. Stormy Daniels’s lawyer Michael Avenatti thinks he’s got the bona fides. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) says she considering it. Some even think Hillary Clinton is going to try again.

Then there are the names that continue to circulate, maybe because they’ve visited Iowa or New Hampshire, or because they won’t give a definitive yes or no, or because they’ve given some indication that something is up: Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.); former vice president Joe Biden; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Tex.); former attorney general Eric Holder; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick.


The Washington Post counted 25 people — last spring. It has only grown since then.

Good. The more the merrier. The sheer number of candidates considering a run greatly increases the chances of a gradual winnowing of the flock, something that will allow supporters to slowly coalesce around one candidate and then another, instead of feeling forced into an allegiance, come hell or high water. You know, like in the last Democratic presidential primary.

I admit that a few months ago, I begged Schultz not to run. “The last thing the Democratic Party — or the Republican Party, for that matter — needs is a business leader with no elected political experience running for president,” I wrote. Don’t get me wrong. I still feel that way, especially since there are dozens of other potential candidates.

But I’m old enough to remember 2015, when there were so many Republicans vying for the nod of their party, the early intraparty debates needed to be divided into two to ensure everyone got airtime. The Democrats considered this something of a joke. The clown car, people named it. “This is getting ridiculous,” sniffed political analyst Bill Schneider.


The joke was on the American public. As it turned out, the vast GOP field offered an advantage that became clear only in retrospect. It prevented until the very end one-on-one mashups. Did it get personal — too personal? You bet. But when there were so many figures on the debate stage, not to mention so many people entering the race, only to drop out, it didn’t allow for a pernicious us-vs.-them to develop among the party voters — a key distinction. They saved their wrath for the Democrats.

That’s not what happened on the Democratic side. After Iowa, only Clinton and Sanders were left to battle it out. It was as if someone in the American League decided early in the season to cancel all baseball games, in favor of offering instead an entire season of the New York Yankees vs. the Boston Red Sox (and, by the way, intimated that all fans should really prefer the Yankees). The result? Are you still angry that Sanders referred to Planned Parenthood as “establishment” or that Clinton condescendingly dismissed single-payer health insurance? There’s a social media fight out there for you raging as I type this sentence.

That won’t happen in 2020. We’ll get to discover whether Democratic voters are willing to overlook Bloomberg’s support for “stop and frisk,” or embrace Schultz’s belief that the national debt is “the greatest threat” the United States needs to handle — and what candidate their supporters will choose next if their chosen standard bearer gets pushed out. Concerned that Sanders is too far to the left, that Warren’s handling of “Pocahontas” bodes poorly for the general election, or Holder is too solicitous of Wall Street interests? No need to stew. You’ll get a say. And when that one falls out, you can decide what you are willing to overlook and select another and then another until there is one man or woman left standing. Here is one thing I can guarantee: That person will turn out to be much, much better than Donald J. Trump.
And who is in the lead?

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/ ... ems-983995
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) enter the 2020 election cycle as the leaders for the Democratic presidential nomination to take on President Donald Trump, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of last week’s midterms.

More than a quarter of Democratic voters, 26 percent, say Biden is their first choice to be the Democratic nominee. Another one-in-five, 19 percent, would pick Sanders, the runner-up for the nomination in 2016.

The two septuagenarians — Biden will be 77 on Election Day, 2020, and Sanders will be 79 — are the only two prospective candidates to garner double-digit support. The third-place candidate is Rep. Beto O’Rourke (R-Texas), who built national name-recognition through his losing Senate bid last week, with 8 percent.

“Beto O’Rourke is emerging to be an outside contender for the 2020 Democratic nomination, outpacing other potential nominees,” said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president.

Following O’Rourke are three senators, all thought to be likely candidates: Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.). Warren is at 5 percent, Harris at 4 percent and Booker at 3 percent.

Of the 14 other possible Democratic candidates tested, no one else earned more than 2 percent support.


The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted November 7-9, surveying 1,952 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Personally I doubt O'Rourke will run, he's pretty emphatic on that point IIRC. So Bernie and Biden, though I think that the more crowded field we're going to see, with a lot of fairly big names, it's not going to be just Bernie vs Biden from the outset. Which is good, I think, as a more open field means we probably won't get the same sort of long, intensely polarized clash between Bernie and an "establishment" candidate. Also, I don't think Biden will provoke as much hostility as Clinton. Partly that's because Joe Biden can be genuinely charming in a way Clinton generally wasn't, and doesn't have as much baggage (both real and manufactured). Partly, unfortunately, it's because there are people even in the Democratic Party who are less threatened by an old white man.

Personally, though, I'd prefer Warren (as likely the best bet for Progressive/Centrist unity) or Booker (as likely the best person to fire up a crowd and get high turnout).

Most of all, I want someone who can beat Trump, though ideally a progressive. I'm hoping we don't see all the progressive names (Sanders, Warren, Brown, etc.) jumping in. If one big progressive name runs against a bunch of Centrists, we'll be united and their vote will be split and we could get a progressive nominee. But I don't want the progressive vote being split two or three ways, if say both Warren and Sanders run.

That said, I think every Democratic contender would be an improvement on Trump.

On the Republican side, I'm presuming it'll be Trump. I don't think there will be much of a primary challenge to him from within his own party at this point, unless he's impeached. Maybe if Mueller brings out proof of treason or something.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Crazedwraith » 2018-11-13 03:54pm

I may well be wrong but I'm thinking Trump term 2 is coming. He's not fucked up with his base and one term presidencies seem rare to me. As a knowledgeless outsider at least.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Tribble » 2018-11-13 04:27pm

Well, so long as Clinton doesn't run and become the democratic candidate again, odds should be better than last time.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Elheru Aran » 2018-11-13 04:36pm

Tribble wrote:
2018-11-13 04:27pm
Well, so long as Clinton doesn't run and become the democratic candidate again, odds should be better than last time.
She might make noise about it, but pretty sure she wouldn't go past a token effort. She's not getting any younger, and I suspect 2016 burnt her enough that she wouldn't have a ton of interest in going through the whole mess again when there are any number of other fairly competent and less-baggage'd potential candidates in the field.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by U.P. Cinnabar » 2018-11-13 04:49pm

Crazedwraith wrote:
2018-11-13 03:54pm
I may well be wrong but I'm thinking Trump term 2 is coming. He's not fucked up with his base and one term presidencies seem rare to me. As a knowledgeless outsider at least.
Three in the last 43 years. Two, if you consider that Bush the Elder was the one actually running the Reagan Administration.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Gandalf » 2018-11-13 08:33pm

Why the hell does it always seem like every Democrat is running in 2020?
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Ziggy Stardust » 2018-11-13 09:21pm

I have nothing specifically against either Biden or Sanders, but they hardly seem like ideal options. Low risk, low reward. I just can't see either of them really rallying the base and inspiring massive turnout in the way the Democrats need in 2020. I don't really see anyone else on that list that really jumps out, besides perhaps Beto, but I haven't been following him all that closely so don't know much about him other than the general buzz.

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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Ziggy Stardust » 2018-11-13 09:24pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2018-11-13 03:26pm
On the Republican side, I'm presuming it'll be Trump. I don't think there will be much of a primary challenge to him from within his own party at this point, unless he's impeached. Maybe if Mueller brings out proof of treason or something.
Well, at least some polling shows there is a lot of public support for a primary challenge of Trump. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see some more traditional old-guard Republican candidate, or a libertarian candidate, making a serious attempt, at the very least.

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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by muse » 2018-11-14 12:18am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2018-11-13 03:26pm
Well, we all know that in perpetual election land, with the Midterms out of the way (more or less), it's time to start jockeying for the 2020 Presidential nomination in earnest:
At times, I wish the US would adopt a Monarchy so we can eliminate elections and save ourselves from endless campaigning.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-14 12:49am

Ziggy Stardust wrote:
2018-11-13 09:24pm
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2018-11-13 03:26pm
On the Republican side, I'm presuming it'll be Trump. I don't think there will be much of a primary challenge to him from within his own party at this point, unless he's impeached. Maybe if Mueller brings out proof of treason or something.
Well, at least some polling shows there is a lot of public support for a primary challenge of Trump. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see some more traditional old-guard Republican candidate, or a libertarian candidate, making a serious attempt, at the very least.
If so, my money is on John Kasich.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-14 01:03am

Crazedwraith wrote:
2018-11-13 03:54pm
I may well be wrong but I'm thinking Trump term 2 is coming. He's not fucked up with his base and one term presidencies seem rare to me. As a knowledgeless outsider at least.
Incumbents traditionally have an advantage, but one-term Presidents are hardly unheard of. Bush Sr. was the last. Before him there were Carter and Ford (who took over from Nixon and then lost his reelection bid). Then Kennedy (assassinated, so it isn't really a measure of his ability to get reelected), and I think Truman (sort of- he took over early in FDR's term, was reelected, but didn't serve another term after that, though I'm not sure if he was even allowed to do so, since IIRC it was in Truman's time that they passed the Amendment setting a two term limit). That's it for the post-WW2 era. For second termers we have Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr., and Obama. So incumbents are favoured, but it's no sure thing.

Traditionally IIRC, the most reliable measure of whether a President will win a second term is (fairly sensibly) whether his approval rating is above or below fifty percent when the election occurs. As in, that has been an accurate predictor every single time, at least in recent history. Right now Trump's approval rating is clearly below fifty percent. We'll see whether that holds, but he's going to be having a harder time getting anything done now than he did before, and Mueller probably has more bombshells to drop. There's also the possibility that the bubble will burst and we'll get another economic downturn, and keep in mind, he's pulling below fifty with a booming economy.

Or as Trump calls it, winning.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by houser2112 » 2018-11-14 08:29am

Elheru Aran wrote:
2018-11-13 04:36pm
Tribble wrote:
2018-11-13 04:27pm
Well, so long as Clinton doesn't run and become the democratic candidate again, odds should be better than last time.
She might make noise about it, but pretty sure she wouldn't go past a token effort. She's not getting any younger, and I suspect 2016 burnt her enough that she wouldn't have a ton of interest in going through the whole mess again when there are any number of other fairly competent and less-baggage'd potential candidates in the field.
Am I the only one that hopes she does run in the primary, but only as a decoy? The Republicans would lose their shit and spend all their energy attacking her instead of digging up dirt on the "real" candidates. She could be the Democrats' tank. :)

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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by LaCroix » 2018-11-14 09:17am

You know what would work just as well?

Obama 2020

Michelle, that is...

Plus, she has an actual chance of winning.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Alferd Packer » 2018-11-14 11:20am

I don't want Clinton to be the candidate. I don't want Sanders to be the candidate. I don't want Warren to be the candidate. I don't want Biden to be the candidate. I don't want Brown to be the candidate. Or succinctly: I don't want an old, white candidate.

But, I am a realist. Old, white candidates are probably the only way for the Democrats to win the Midwest back, so out of all the old, white people who are possible candidates, I guess Brown is the least objectionable. At least he was born in the latter half of the 20th century.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-14 01:14pm

Alferd Packer wrote:
2018-11-14 11:20am
I don't want Clinton to be the candidate. I don't want Sanders to be the candidate. I don't want Warren to be the candidate. I don't want Biden to be the candidate. I don't want Brown to be the candidate. Or succinctly: I don't want an old, white candidate.

But, I am a realist. Old, white candidates are probably the only way for the Democrats to win the Midwest back, so out of all the old, white people who are possible candidates, I guess Brown is the least objectionable. At least he was born in the latter half of the 20th century.
You mean the Midwestern states that voted for Obama?

The very last thing the Democrats need to do is take the message that "We will only win by pandering to voters who don't like black people". I'm not opposed to a white candidate on principles, if they're a strong candidate who can get out voters and isn't too objectionable on the issues, but the idea that we have to run a white guy to win in Trump's America is making a huge concession to the far Right, and engaging in a massive betrayal of the increasingly non-white Democratic base. And its not even well-founded in evidence. Most of the Democratic pickups in the House were by female and/or minority candidates. We will never win over the racists, because Republicans are far more willing and experienced at pandering to them than we are. We will win by turning out our supporters. Which demographics-wise is basically young people, women, minorities, and college-educated white people.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Alferd Packer » 2018-11-14 02:21pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2018-11-14 01:14pm

You mean the Midwestern states that voted for Obama?
I mean Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin, with Ohio as a conditional state in play if Sherrod Brown is the eventual candidate. Win those, you don't need Florida or North Carolina. And to win those, you probably need to field an old, white, moderate candidate whose name is not Hillary Rodham Clinton. Maybe you could get away with a moderate minority candidate like Obama again, but he or she would have to be just as charismatic and energizing as Obama, and I'm not sure if any of the minority candidates-to-be in the current field fit the bill, much as I like them.

Further, given that progressive minority statewide candidates in Florida and Georgia are most likely going to lose their elections (regardless of the suppression and tampering that caused their losses), one should be generally leery of fielding a progressive candidate in a national election. If Abrams and/or Gillum do eventually win, then that changes. But until a progressive candidate wins in a big swing state, it's too risky to field one nationally.

There are basically two possible paths for a Democratic presidential victory in 2020. The first: win back the Midwest. The second is the coastal strategy, which abandons the Midwest and tries to secure Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. The first strategy could net 72 EVs, which is more than enough for a victory in 2020. The second could net 60 EVs, which is still enough, but you have to flip all three states to do it. Regardless of the eventual candidate, the Midwest is the safest way to go.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-14 02:40pm

I think it comes down to this: We need someone who can turnout both moderates and progressives (which is admittedly a tough balancing act), and we need someone with charisma who can inspire voters.

Personally I think Warren and Biden would be best on the first point, and that Booker would be best on the second. I'm not sure who would be best on all three. Maybe Biden.

Yeah, I think it will be Biden, probably. But the reasons for that are not really about his whiteness.

Edit: You're also overlooking the fact that we made Texas competitive in a midterm year. Factor in the likely higher Presidential race turnout, and while it may seem a long shot, and I wouldn't like to build an election strategy around it, there is at least a realistic possibility of flipping Texas. Which makes the math much more favorable for Dems., and near-impossible for Trump, if it happens.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by Alferd Packer » 2018-11-14 05:52pm

I honestly think progressive turnout is going to be high, because it's still Trump on the other side of the ballot. If nothing else, 2016 taught a bunch of apathetic progressives(read: young, minorities, LGBTQI persons) that voting actually matters. As you pointed out, the progressive groundswell nearly got a liberal Democrat elected in Texas.

In any event, you can always use the VP candidate to cover traits that you're not. Maybe it makes sense to attach Kamala Harris to Joe Biden--a comparatively young woman of color to offset what would be very white, very old president. Also, the thought of her shredding Pence's fragile little asshole in the vice presidential debate tickles me to no end.
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Re: 2020. It Begins.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-15 01:42am

Alferd Packer wrote:
2018-11-14 05:52pm
I honestly think progressive turnout is going to be high, because it's still Trump on the other side of the ballot. If nothing else, 2016 taught a bunch of apathetic progressives(read: young, minorities, LGBTQI persons) that voting actually matters. As you pointed out, the progressive groundswell nearly got a liberal Democrat elected in Texas.

In any event, you can always use the VP candidate to cover traits that you're not. Maybe it makes sense to attach Kamala Harris to Joe Biden--a comparatively young woman of color to offset what would be very white, very old president.
So basically a reverse of the Obama-Biden ticket (except that one of the candidates is also a woman).

I think there's going to be a lot of pressure from within the party to have a woman at the top of the ticket, though, especially after we came so close to the first female President and Clinton won the popular vote, only to have it stolen by President Pussygrabber. And especially after the Democrats gained so much ground in the Midterms and some of the special elections since 2016 in large part on the turnout by women voters. That's another strong point in favour of either Harris or Warren at the top of the ticket.
Also, the thought of her shredding Pence's fragile little asshole in the vice presidential debate tickles me to no end.
Yeah, at least one of the people on the ticket needs to be a good attack dog. Hillary and Kaine were both fairly milquetoast candidates during much of the campaign, as I recall.
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals William T. Sherman and Ulysses S Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


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I am a dual citizen of the United States and Canada.


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