Texas 2018 Senate race

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Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-09-21 07:53pm

Dallas Morning News
Ahead of Ted Cruz-Beto O'Rourke debate, race rated 'toss up'; what to watch in Texas Senate showdown

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Updated at 8:50 a.m with race now raced "toss up" by top handicapper.

The shadowboxing ends Friday night when Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Beto O'Rourke meet in the first debate of a contentious and surprisingly competitive Texas campaign.

The challenger, a three-term El Paso Democrat, blistered past the first-term tea party GOP senator in fundraising this summer. Recent polls offer bewildering contradictions — anything from a 9-point lead for Cruz to a slight edge for O’Rourke.

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On Friday morning, Cook Political Report -- a top independent analyst-- shifted its rating of the contest to "toss up," a stunning blow to Cruz and Republicans after decades of GOP dominance in Texas.

"The momentum in this race is on our side," the challenger's campaign declared.

Signaling the intense interest the Texas contest has generated, the hosts have issued credentials to more than 120 journalists from around the country. C-Span will air it live.

It’s an epic clash between a conservative champion and an unabashedly progressive challenger, with enormous stakes not just for them but for the direction of the nation.

President Donald Trump will hold a rally next month with Cruz. O’Rourke has said for over a year that he would vote to impeach the president. So that hangs over the debate, too.

The hour-long event is hosted by The Dallas Morning News, Southern Methodist University and KXAS-TV (NBC 5). It will be broadcast live at 6 p.m. and streamed live at nbcdfw.com and dallasnews.com. It will be rebroadcast at 8 a.m. Sunday.


The campaigns announced this and two other televised debates last Friday. The candidates will meet again on Sunday, Sept. 30, at the University of Houston, and Tuesday, Oct. 16, in San Antonio.


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They also agreed to separate hourlong town hall events on CNN in October. O’Rourke’s is scheduled for Oct. 18 in the Rio Grande Valley.

Here’s what to watch for:

Will they find any common ground?

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Not likely.

On immigration, Cruz is a hardliner. He has embraced Trump’s support for a border wall and defended the administration’s policy of prosecuting anyone caught crossing into the country illegally — a "zero tolerance" tactic that led to the detention and separation of thousands of migrants earlier this year.

O’Rourke calls the wall a ridiculous waste of money and an offense to Texas’ No. 1 trading partner. He led an emotional protest outside the Tornillo tent camp in the West Texas desert on Father’s Day to spotlight the family separation crisis.

On gun violence, Cruz has used his Senate perch to block any erosion of Second Amendment rights, while O’Rourke calls for curbs on sale of assault-style weapons and universal background checks for gun buyers.

O’Rourke gained national renown and Hollywood cachet with his defense of NFL players who protest police brutality by kneeling during the National Anthem. Cruz has seized the issue to appeal to veterans and the patriotism of other Texans, painting the protests and O’Rourke as disrespectful.

Pick most any topic, symbolic or pocketbook, and the rivals disagree: abortion rights, tax policy, the future of Obamacare. Both support free trade and have balked at the tariffs and trade skirmishes emanating from the White House.

Beyond that, the moderators — political writer Gromer Jeffers Jr. of The News and Julie Fine of NBC5 -— won’t have much trouble exposing gaping chasms.

What Cruz needs to show
Confidence, humor and a fighting spirit.

The flurry of polls since early August showing a statistical tie or close to it has given Cruz voters and GOP strategists heartburn. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and if Cruz falls, Democrats will have an opening to move the state into their column in presidential contests — a shift in the electoral map that, with New York and California, would all but ensure their control of the White House for years.

The Cook report's chief Senate analyst, Jennifer Duffy, wrote Friday with the ratings change that the race is "defying all odds and expectations."

"Cruz isn't terribly popular, and while that might not necessarily be a problem is a red state...O'Rourke and his message have generated a great deal of enthusiasm among Democrats and independents....

"O'Rourke has earned this rating," she wrote, "but getting the last couple of points to overtake Cruz and win the seat will be difficult though not utterly impossible."

Cruz has spent the summer warning Republican voters not to be complacent. In private, conservative groups allied with Cruz have geared up for a rescue mission.

White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney recently told GOP donors that Cruz may not be “likeable” enough to win. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, an ally of both Cruz and Trump, secretly lobbied the White House to deploy Trump to Texas to get the senator over the finish line.

Cruz dismissed Mulvaney as "some political guy in Washington."

Whatever millions that independent groups and the GOP’s Senate campaign arm spend to protect Cruz and Texas, it’s money they could have spent in states where TV time is much cheaper. Cruz will have to show that he’s a winner.

As Barack Obama said of Hillary Clinton in a Democratic debate in 2008, Cruz needs to show that he’s “likeable enough.”

Sen. Ted Cruz debates future President Donald Trump at The Venetian Las Vegas on Dec. 15, 2015.(ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Sen. Ted Cruz debates future President Donald Trump at The Venetian Las Vegas on Dec. 15, 2015. (ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
What O’Rourke needs to show
Let’s assume that few voters choosing between Cruz and O'Rourke are actually persuadable.

Campaigns between candidates with such different priorities and ideology aren't really about moving some phantom "swing" voter. They're about motivating your own side. Cruz says it's a turnout election. O'Rourke says Texas isn't a Republican state but a nonvoting state.

They're saying the same thing.

O’Rourke needs to persuade Democratic voters in Texas, and left-leaning donors around the country, that the race is winnable.

Soft spots: Cruz
Cruz’s tight embrace of the divisive president is both an asset and an albatross.

The senator himself can come across as arrogant and smarmy. He has a sense of humor that ranges from biting and topical to silly dad humor and references to The Simpsons cartoon or his favorite movie, The Princess Bride.

It's appealing to many and off-putting to some.

He also has a hard time conceding that he's been wrong about anything of substance.

That could come off as rigid by comparison to O'Rourke, who on gun control and other controversial topics always frames his stance by conceding that reasonable people can disagree.


Rep. Beto O'Rourke stumps in Plano on Sept. 15, 2018. (LAURA BUCKMAN/AFP/Getty Images)







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Soft spots: O’Rourke
According to polls, he's out of step with many Texas voters on a host of topics, among them impeachment, border security and gun control.

An arrest report that recently surfaced from a drunken driving incident when he was 26 — not exactly a kid — cited a witness saying he tried to flee the scene.

Cruz can pick away at each of these vulnerabilities.

As an orator, the Democrat tends toward run-on sentences. He inspires friendly crowds with soaring rhetoric and gauzy visions of the future of Texas. Time constraints during the debate won’t allow for long-winded wind-ups.

If he can’t get to the point, Cruz will shred him.

And as the barrage of attack ads since Labor Day have shown, Cruz has a thick folder of research on O’Rourke. He’s eager to chip away at the challenger’s image as a charismatic fresh face.

He'll paint him as a gun-grabbing liberal who wants to legalize marijuana and maybe even narcotics. In short, he'll seek to “educate voters,” as campaign professionals like to say, regarding a myriad of positions on which the Democrat is out of step with many of them.

Will debate experience pay off?
Cruz, a champion debater at Princeton University, excelled as an appellate lawyer after Harvard Law School. He argued nine cases before the U.S. Supreme Court and has 20 presidential debates under his belt from the 2016 primaries.

O’Rourke’s experience with face-to-face confrontation is thinner. He had a hard-fought primary in 2012, when he unseated longtime Rep. Silvestre Reyes. But he's endured nothing like the glare of the spotlight he’ll be under Friday night.

Illustration of various faces from the 18 races, including Ted Cruz, Beto O’Rourke, Lupe Valdez and Greg Abbott surrounding the Texas Capitol Building
What are the 18 races to watch in 2018?
Can Cruz rattle O’Rourke?
Cruz on Thursday set the stage for spirited debate by attacking O'Rourke over a 5-year-old episode involving a potential ethics violation.

In November 2013 — a year after Cruz and O’Rourke won their respective seats — Legistorm, an organization that collects congressional data, informed O’Rourke that he apparently violated the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, which regulates stock trades by lawmakers.

O’Rourke had bought shares in Twitter during an initial public offering two days after the House Ethics Committee cited the tech company in a memo that warned lawmakers against investing in certain IPOs.

O’Rourke disclosed his purchase, but that didn’t erase the potential violation. After Legistorm flagged the infraction, he reported himself to the ethics panel and told the El Paso Times that he had missed the memo. He apologized for “not exercising due diligence” and said he wasn’t aware that his stockbroker had planned to invest his funds in IPOs.

On the ethics panel’s recommendation, O’Rourke sold his shares and sent the $7,136 in profit to the U.S. Treasury. He also told his broker to “stop any further transactions” of that kind, according to Legistorm.

“His actions reflect a troubling disregard for the standards expected of members of Congress and directly contradict his campaign rhetoric promoting government accountability,” Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said Thursday.

O’Rourke didn’t respond. But if the senator hits him on the issue during the debate, he’ll get another chance to show how well he keeps his cool and can explain away such missteps.

Washington correspondent Tom Benning contributed to this report.
For those who haven't been paying attention, the Texas race has now become a toss up between Congressman O'Rourke and Senator Cruz.

Tonight is the debate. You can watch it here:

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-09-21 09:27pm

Funnily enough, this was outside the debate's entrance :lol: :

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-10-02 09:27pm

KSAT News
Texas voter rolls grow to record-breaking 15.6M ahead of midterm election
Posted: 12:00 PM, September 28, 2018
Updated: 3:29 AM, October 01, 2018

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Rod Lamkey/Getty Images
Ted Cruz, Beto O'Rourke

Shares: 8,060
HOUSTON - Texas has set a new voter registration record of 15.6 million people ahead of the highly anticipated Senate race between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke.

Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos tells the Houston Chronicle that the state's voter rolls have grown by 1.6 million since the last midterm election in 2014.


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Election records show that Texas has seen a 400,000-voter increase since March. The state on average added just over 100,000 voters a year between 2002 and 2014.

Pablos says county election officials reported witnessing voter registration rates and voter enthusiasm in a midterm year that's usually only seen before presidential elections. He says Texas residents are becoming more engaged in politics.

There's still time for voters to join the rolls before Oct. 9, the registration deadline to vote in the midterms.
Lot of activity here in Texas.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Tribble » 2018-10-02 09:58pm

Wait, what? So would Trump actually prefer to see a Democrat win over Cruz?
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by TheFeniX » 2018-10-02 10:29pm

That tweet was back during the 2016 rep primary.

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-10-02 11:12pm

Tribble wrote:
2018-10-02 09:58pm
Wait, what? So would Trump actually prefer to see a Democrat win over Cruz?
More Trump's words coming back to bite him, since he is now being a supporter for Cruz in the Texas race over the fears of Texas being blue again.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-10-03 09:03am

The Statesman
Fake mailer warns of $500 fine for displaying O’Rourke signs, civil rights group says

By Johnathan Silver

Posted Oct 2, 2018 at 8:00 PM
Updated at 5:28 AM

A civil rights group is investigating reports of a fake mailer circulating in College Station that warns of a $500 fine for displaying signs supporting U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke.

A civil rights group is investigating reports of a fake mailer circulating in College Station that warns of a $500 fine for displaying signs supporting U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke.

The letter, recently obtained by the Texas Civil Rights Project, features a “CITATION WARNING,” “quick facts about” O’Rourke and a ”‘BETO’ REALITY CHECK” that includes the comments “NOT HISPANIC,” “FELONY ARREST RECORD,” “INSIDER TRADING VIOLATIONS,” “FATHER’S DRUG SCANDAL” and “FAMILY BUSINESS FEDERALLY PROSECUTED,” according to images of the letter the organization shared on social media Tuesday. The letter appears to end with “These issues have not been effectively reported to Texas voters.”

RELATED: Is Ted Cruz’s ‘summons’ letter deceptive, illegal or fair play?

The envelope for the letter had a fake Austin return address, the organization’s voting rights legal director, Beth Stevens, told the American-Statesman. It appears the letter was processed and sent through a post office in North Houston, she said.

“It’s absolutely a voter suppression tactic,” Stevens told the Statesman Tuesday.

RELATED: Unapproved O’Rourke text message asks for ‘undocumented immigrant’ vote

A spokeswoman for the Cruz campaign said it wasn’t responsible for the mailer. O’Rourke’s campaign declined to comment on the report.

Stevens said the organization has contacted the Texas secretary of state’s office and might work with a law enforcement agency on the matter.
Remember, if you're worried about losing, just make it seem like a crime to vote for the other guy.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-10-03 10:02am

An example of the mailer sent out:

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by TheFeniX » 2018-10-03 11:24am

But Rafael Cruz is totally the proud Hispanic you should be voting for...

I love these things: Beto "mysteriously" avoided trial. Not really, a white guy in Texas was found to be doing something stupid and illegal, but cops gave him the benefit of the doubt and cut him loose.

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Elfdart » 2018-10-08 07:29pm

Cruz has a few thug cops on his side, like the ones who forced this woman to remove an anti-GOP sign from her yard:

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Knife » 2018-10-08 11:27pm

How goes it down there. There are snippets on the news but is Beto still running hard and outlook good? Can't imagine the whole Kavanaugh thing helped Cruz with woman down there.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-10-09 01:40am

Knife wrote:
2018-10-08 11:27pm
How goes it down there. There are snippets on the news but is Beto still running hard and outlook good? Can't imagine the whole Kavanaugh thing helped Cruz with woman down there.
Tuesday is the last day for voter registration, so I've been reminding friends. I plan on early voting this week to try and get it done and out of the way. But then, I live in a rather liberal part of Texas.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-10-09 07:31pm

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/poli ... 32670.html
Ted Cruz declines, so challenger Beto O’Rourke gets an hour on national TV by himself
BY ANNA M. TINSLEY

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October 09, 2018 02:00 PM

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CNN is shining a light on three of the “most consequential races” in 2018 — including the Texas bid for U.S. Senate — through debates or town halls in the coming weeks.

But Texans won’t get to see incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso face off in this series.

“Sen. Ted Cruz (R) declined CNN’s invitation to participate in the town hall,” a CNN statement noted.

So O’Rourke will be featured in a live, one-hour town hall with CNN Chief Political Correspondent Dana Bash in South Texas on Oct. 18.

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The Cruz campaign did not immediately respond Tuesday afternoon to a request on why the senator will not participate.

The solo town hall will air at 9 p.m. central time Oct. 18 and be televised from the McAllen Performing Arts Center.

The other two races that will be featured in CNN debates: Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott in a U.S. Senate debate. That debate will air at 9 p.m. Oct. 16. And Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis and Democrat Mayor Andrew Gillum in a 7 p.m. Oct. 21 Florida gubernatorial debate.

Cruz and O’Rourke, who did participate in a Sept. 21 debate at SMU, are expected to square off at least one more time in an Oct. 16 debate in San Antonio.

Battle for Senate
The fight for this Senate seat, represented by Republicans since 1993, has become more competitive than expected.

It has become one of the costliest and most watched races across the country, as many wonder if O’Rourke can do what no other Democrat has done for more than two decades in Texas: win a statewide office.

O’Rourke, who has traveled around the state since last year to meet voters, caught up with Cruz in fundraising, as both hover around $23 million, according to OpenSecrets.org, which reviewed campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission between Jan. 1, 2017, and July 31, 2018.

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Republicans have said they believe O’Rourke’s election bid “is a serious threat” to Cruz’s re-election.

Polls have fluctuated back and forth, giving each candidate the edge at different times, indicating what a tight race this could be.

Early voting for the Nov. 6 mid-term election runs from Oct. 22-Nov. 2.
So, Ted Cruz, being the big strong man that he is, ran away from a town hall, giving Beto the entire air time to do with as he wishes.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Elfdart » 2018-10-09 08:05pm

Ted Cruz is a pussy:



I hope this ad runs nonstop til election day. :lol:
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Elfdart » 2018-10-09 08:34pm

Knife wrote:
2018-10-08 11:27pm
How goes it down there. There are snippets on the news but is Beto still running hard and outlook good? Can't imagine the whole Kavanaugh thing helped Cruz with woman down there.
It really depends on turnout. If all these new voters show up, Cruz is going down. Otherwise, we'll have six more years of this asshole.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Highlord Laan » 2018-10-09 08:42pm

Knife wrote:
2018-10-08 11:27pm
How goes it down there. There are snippets on the news but is Beto still running hard and outlook good? Can't imagine the whole Kavanaugh thing helped Cruz with woman down there.
You seriously think texas republicans, or any republicans at all for that matter, give even a single shit? The men will vote cruz because ebil libruls and the women will vote cruz because if they didn't they'd get beaten or assaulted by the men.

Besides, I'm sure the Party Leadership in the "great state" of texas made sure to shut down as many voting precincts in non-republican areas as possible, and have instructed their guards in blue to be extra hard on the colored folk.

These are republicans we're talking about here.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Ralin » 2018-10-10 04:43am

Highlord Laan wrote:
2018-10-09 08:42pm
and the women will vote cruz because if they didn't they'd get beaten or assaulted by the men.
One thing the Republicans haven't been able to fuck with as far as I know of is the concept of secret ballots.

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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by Tribble » 2018-10-10 06:32am

Ralin wrote:
2018-10-10 04:43am
Highlord Laan wrote:
2018-10-09 08:42pm
and the women will vote cruz because if they didn't they'd get beaten or assaulted by the men.
One thing the Republicans haven't been able to fuck with as far as I know of is the concept of secret ballots.
Well in theory it wouldn't be that hard to install cameras somewhere that take s snapshots whenever someone votes.

Of course, if Texas has electronic voting machines some of them could be rigged already, which would make the whole thing kinda moot. I wouldn't put it past Republicans to just rig the election if they think they can get away with it.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-10-10 04:53pm

Bad move. If there's one thing the more tribalistic members of the electorate hate, its weakness. And Cruz just showed everyone that his spine is jello, his balls shriveled and his dick flaccid.

Then again, it wouldn't surprise me if most of them rationalize it away as "Cruz showed how tough he was by refusing to appear on FAKE NEWS CNN)", or some bullshit to that effect.

But seriously, if you are to much of a coward to face your opponents, the press, or constituents, you have no business being in politics.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-11-03 05:24pm

According to Five Thirty Eight, it's a dead heat between Cruz and Beto at 49 percent each. This race is going to be a squeaker.
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Re: Texas 2018 Senate race

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2018-11-03 05:27pm

Wow, last I heard Beto had dropped behind (especially due to the post-Kavanaugh shift in polls) and this was considered a write-off barring the polls being significantly off in the Democrats' favor. Glad to hear that isn't the case, and it makes me a bit more hopeful about our chances of taking the Senate.

Edit: Looking closer, its just the most recent poll, and its a bit of an outlier, with all the other polls in recent weeks showing Cruz at least a few (and sometimes as much as ten) points ahead. Hopefully subsequent polls confirm that this is an actual shift, and not just an outlier.
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