Former personal lawyer to Donald Trump Michael Cohen pleads guilty.

[The Romulan Republic]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/21/politics ... index.html

Michael Cohen, President Trump's former personal attorney, appeared in Manhattan federal court Tuesday where he is expected to plead guilty to multiple criminal charges brought by federal prosecutors in New York, according to people familiar with the matter.

Seems he will face jail time. It should be noted that this is not directly tied to the Mueller probe- Mueller handed it off to a New York office of the FBI because it didn't fall within the scope of his investigation, IIRC. There is hope that Cohen will spill the beans on Trump for a lighter sentence (as he has indicated willingness to do), but there's no sign of that yet.

[Elheru Aran]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/21/politics ... index.html

Michael Cohen, President Trump's former personal attorney, appeared in Manhattan federal court Tuesday where he is expected to plead guilty to multiple criminal charges brought by federal prosecutors in New York, according to people familiar with the matter.

Seems he will face jail time. It should be noted that this is not directly tied to the Mueller probe- Mueller handed it off to a New York office of the FBI because it didn't fall within the scope of his investigation, IIRC. There is hope that Cohen will spill the beans on Trump for a lighter sentence (as he has indicated willingness to do), but there's no sign of that yet.

As I understand it Cohen is in a lot of trouble for his own personal stuff as much as whatever he did for Trump, and he might view it as a more acceptable (to Trump) solution to take the fall for those rather than on stuff more directly related to Trump. The buzz I've been picking up (granted I only read about this stuff earlier today rather than the most current news) was that he wasn't necessarily willing to talk to Mueller et al, but he was willing to plead guilty as part of a deal. What exactly that deal could entail, nobody knew...

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, among the charges is campaign finance violations, which would likely involve the President in some capacity- likely the payoff of Stormy Daniels, among other possibilities. This doesn't appear to be related to Russia, but that doesn't mean it won't legally jeopardize the President.

[LadyTevar]

Cohen never named the President by name. It was "A Candidate" or "A Person Running for Office".

[The Romulan Republic]

Cohen never named the President by name. It was "A Candidate" or "A Person Running for Office".

Maybe, but IIRC his only real clients were Dickless Donald and Shawn Hannity.

I wonder if that suggests that he's still trying to hedge his bets? If so, it seems a poor move, since Trump has pretty definitively thrown him under the bus already. Or if he just doesn't want to give too much away publicly until he's had a chance to strike a deal with Mueller. That seems more likely.

[The Romulan Republic]

Okay, so he's apparently stated under oath that he was acting under the direction of a federal candidate when he violated campaign finance law by paying off Stormy Daniels and others. Even if no name was given, the only plausible candidate is Donald Trump, and that is how it is being interpreted in the media. Which means that effectively, Trump was just implicated in a federal crime by his personal lawyer while testifying under oath.

That's... a big fucking deal. Probably more solid than any accusation we've had thus far. In any sane country, Congress would impeach him tomorrow (but then, a sane Congress would already have done so). It also means that Trump could be indicted upon leaving office (even leaving aside the debate over whether a sitting President can constitutionally be indicted).

There's a certain symmetry or karma to it if this is what ultimately sinks him, though. Trump is a long-term misogynist, sexual predator, and beauty contest runner, who likely won the Presidency in part due to the Anthony Wiener sexting investigation (as stuff that turned up in that case is what lead Comey to reopen the Clinton email investigation right before the election). So its fitting to me if a sex scandal is what ultimately brings him down. Those who live by the dick die by the dick, I guess.

[The Romulan Republic]

So... given that Trump's legal team has admitted previously that he approved the payments... yeah. Its about as near as it can be to proven, short of an actual conviction, that Trump committed a federal crime by violating campaign finance law. One commentator on CNN this morning outright stated that if it were anyone other than the President, he would be indicted now.

His defense appears to be to call Cohen a liar- he could also try to claim that the payments were simply intended to protect his family from the exposure, not to aide the campaign (but if you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you...).

The response from Congress, however, is frustratingly mixed. The Republicans, in a predictable display of moral bankruptcy and betrayal of their oaths of office, are pretty much either keeping their mouths shut or defending him. Some Democrats are calling for impeachment or indictment, while others are avoiding the impeachment question. Personally, I think there's a good argument for not trying to impeach now, much as I'd like it if they could, because they'll never successfully impeach, much less convict, in the current Congress, and a high-profile failure would be disastrous. But if they are avoiding impeachment talk to try to appear "moderate", then I think that it is cowardly and disingenuous of them. They should campaign on a pledge of impeachment and work to fire up the base, rather than downplay the severity of Trump's actions in a bid to appeal to moderates and conservatives.

Others, fortunately, have shown more spine, calling for impeachment or indictment. Schumer is also pushing a delay in the Kavanaugh nomination process again, and there seems to be a renewed push to protect the Mueller investigation.

Mostly, though, its still going to come down to the Midterms. So the main immediate impact on Trump is likely to be in terms of how this effects the elections.

[The Jester]

There is hope that Cohen will spill the beans on Trump for a lighter sentence (as he has indicated willingness to do), but there's no sign of that yet.

Signs.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, looks like he's open to spilling everything he knows to Mueller. Goody.

New York State is also subpoenaing him in the Trump Foundation investigation. That's particularly significant because a Presidential pardon can do fuck all about a violation of state law.

Edit: I think its still kind of sinking in that we might be beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel, between this and Omarossa. Its not over yet, not by a long shot, but after all the years of speculation and rumours and allegations, to actually see Trump accused of a crime under oath, in a court room, by someone in a position to know, is fucking delicious.

[Zaune]

Yeah, looks like he's open to spilling everything he knows to Mueller. Goody.

New York State is also subpoenaing him in the Trump Foundation investigation. That's particularly significant because a Presidential pardon can do fuck all about a violation of state law.

Here's hoping the (doubtless very long) list of NY public officials with a score to settle with Dollar Store Mussolini is longer than the list of NY public officials he can bribe or blackmail, then. And that the neo-Nazi thing has completely burned his company's bridges with the mob.

[madd0ct0r]

Yeah, looks like he's open to spilling everything he knows to Mueller. Goody.

New York State is also subpoenaing him in the Trump Foundation investigation. That's particularly significant because a Presidential pardon can do fuck all about a violation of state law.

Here's hoping the (doubtless very long) list of NY public officials with a score to settle with Dollar Store Mussolini is longer than the list of NY public officials he can bribe or blackmail, then. And that the neo-Nazi thing has completely burned his company's bridges with the mob.

Eh? The mob have a thing against neo-nazis? bad for buissness?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

ITV news has gone out of their way to point out that things are still a long way from impeachment. The Democrats will need to get the upper hand in both chambers of Congress in the approaching midterms if Trump is going to be removed, and replaced with Pence.

[Zaune]

Eh? The mob have a thing against neo-nazis? bad for buissness?

Extremely. Totalitarian regimes tend to have a relaxed attitude to due process and a high tolerance for collateral damage. Besides, Mussolini ordered a pogrom against them in Sicily in the 1920s, and at least two of the big New York families were founded by members who were on the run from the blackshirts.

[Civil War Man]

Eh? The mob have a thing against neo-nazis? bad for buissness?

Extremely. Totalitarian regimes tend to have a relaxed attitude to due process and a high tolerance for collateral damage. Besides, Mussolini ordered a pogrom against them in Sicily in the 1920s, and at least two of the big New York families were founded by members who were on the run from the blackshirts.

Setting aside that, there's also that a lot of neo-nazis are gang members (like the Aryan Brotherhood), so even if a particular mobster didn't have anything against neo-nazis per se, they'd probably still hate them for being competition.

[The Romulan Republic]

ITV news has gone out of their way to point out that things are still a long way from impeachment. The Democrats will need to get the upper hand in both chambers of Congress in the approaching midterms if Trump is going to be removed, and replaced with Pence.

Honestly, I'd want them to get Pence too, but first things first.

The reason why its so difficult is not only that the Senate is an uphill battle even in a blue wave year, due to far more Democrat seats being up for election than Republican (meaning that we're mostly playing defense). Its that due to which seats are up this year, it is mathematically impossible for us to get a 66 seat majority (the two-thirds threshold for impeachment, or for a filibuster-proof majority). Which means that any impeachment conviction in the Senate would require at least some Republican votes.

There are a few in the Senate who might shift if there was overwhelming evidence/support for impeachment. Maybe. But right now... no. They're all too scared of losing Dickless's rabid voting base going into the midterms. The general consensus seems to be that they might turn on Trump if he fired Mueller, but anything less than that will be shrugged off.

[Ziggy Stardust]

It's important to point out that for anything to happen, Cohen would still have to provide evidence (or the information requisite for investigators to find evidence). He can say all he wants about Trump under oath, but it will never amount to impeachment or indictment if some kind of hard evidence isn't available.

[The Romulan Republic]

It's important to point out that for anything to happen, Cohen would still have to provide evidence (or the information requisite for investigators to find evidence). He can say all he wants about Trump under oath, but it will never amount to impeachment or indictment if some kind of hard evidence isn't available.

Impeachment at this point depends mostly on the make up of the Congress after the midterms, whether a Dem. majority would have the balls to do it, and whether they could get those key Republican defections in the Senate (as not all Senate seats are up for reelection, and it is literally impossible for the Dems. to get enough seats this November to get the 2/3rds. necessary for conviction).

Indictment... Well, according to some of people they've had discussing this on CNN the last couple of days, what we have now would probably be enough for indictment (of anyone but the President). However, Trump could claim that he was paying women off for personal reasons, that it wasn't a campaign expense. And I suppose that without a tape or document or other witnesses, it would pretty much just be Cohen's word/credibility against Trump's, which is probably enough to qualify as "reasonable doubt" in the minds of a lot of jurors.

Edit: That said, its also worth noting that Trump and his legal team's inability to keep their fucking mouths shut has seriously hurt them here- they've basically admitted to Trump authorizing the payments, repeatedly.

[The Romulan Republic]

That's one of the scariest things about this, actually: despite every awful thing he's done, if Trump weren't Trump, if he was just able to shut the fuck up for five minutes and keep his story straight, he might very well have been able to largely get away with it. I suppose we'll never know, but... if we were going to get a corrupt fascist in the White House, thank God we at least got one with a seeming pathological need to shoot himself in the foot.

[LadyTevar]

It's important to point out that for anything to happen, Cohen would still have to provide evidence (or the information requisite for investigators to find evidence). He can say all he wants about Trump under oath, but it will never amount to impeachment or indictment if some kind of hard evidence isn't available.

Impeachment at this point depends mostly on the make up of the Congress after the midterms, whether a Dem. majority would have the balls to do it, and whether they could get those key Republican defections in the Senate (as not all Senate seats are up for reelection, and it is literally impossible for the Dems. to get enough seats this November to get the 2/3rds. necessary for conviction).

Indictment... Well, according to some of people they've had discussing this on CNN the last couple of days, what we have now would probably be enough for indictment (of anyone but the President). However, Trump could claim that he was paying women off for personal reasons, that it wasn't a campaign expense. And I suppose that without a tape or document or other witnesses, it would pretty much just be Cohen's word/credibility against Trump's, which is probably enough to qualify as "reasonable doubt" in the minds of a lot of jurors.

Edit: That said, its also worth noting that Trump and his legal team's inability to keep their fucking mouths shut has seriously hurt them here- they've basically admitted to Trump authorizing the payments, repeatedly.

Right now with McCain's death, the Republicans in the Senate no longer have a Quorum. Without Quorum, they can't do business, like shoving that recommendation to SCOTUS

[Elheru Aran]

On the other hand... they're tied. Which means Pence gets a vote. Which means they're still one up on the Democrats. IIRC anyway

[Patroklos]

Besides just human decency, the Dems really wanted McCain to stay alive through November strategically because his lack of ability to vote was a default -1 to Republicans to any likely vote as long as he filled the seat. Now the AZ governor will replace him shortly with someone able to cast a vote.

Also I am pretty sure there is no tie, the minority is 49 including the independents and even without McCain the Republicans have 50.

[houser2112]

Besides just human decency, the Dems really wanted McCain to stay alive through November strategically because his lack of ability to vote was a default -1 to Republicans to any likely vote as long as he filled the seat. Now the AZ governor will replace him shortly with someone able to cast a vote.

This was what immediately came to mind when I heard he had died. Him being alive but infirm was a no-vote (or even a "nay" if he was feeling maverickish like he did with the repeal-ACA vote), but him being dead means they can replace him for the Kavanaugh hearings with someone likely to toe the GOP line.

[The Romulan Republic]

How long will the replacement take? At this point, the Republicans need to push Kavanaugh through fast if they want to do it before a potential blue wave. At this point, its not about blocking Kavanaugh. Its about stalling for a few months, and praying for a good Midterm.

[houser2112]

A realistic "good midterm" for the Democrats is not losing any seats in the Senate, unfortunately. Gaining enough to have an effect on the Kavanaugh confirmation, should it last that long, is a pipe dream. The Democrats have a good chance of taking back the House, but unfortunately that has no bearing on the Kavanaugh confirmation.

[The Romulan Republic]

A realistic "good midterm" for the Democrats is not losing any seats in the Senate, unfortunately. Gaining enough to have an effect on the Kavanaugh confirmation, should it last that long, is a pipe dream. The Democrats have a good chance of taking back the House, but unfortunately that has no bearing on the Kavanaugh confirmation.

If the last two years have taught me anything about politics, its that there are no certain outcomes, either positive or negative. Bernie's shock win in the Wisconsin primary, Trump becoming fucking President, Ocasio-Cortez (a socialist who'd never run for office before) coming from way behind to a massive win against a strong incumbent? Its also conceivably possible (though unlikely, in my opinion) that a strong Blue Wave might make some Republicans rethink the wisdom of unswerving loyalty to Trumpism.

I do know that effectively telling voters "nothing you do will really matter" is not going to help Democratic get out the vote efforts, though. Focus on getting as many seats as we can for now. If we don't have enough to block Trump after the votes are counted, then we'll deal with that then.