2017 US Off-Year Elections

[Dalton]

I'm honestly surprised nobody has made a thread about this. There were several local elections last night, and some big stuff happened.

VA: Northam won over Gillespie, who was 45's choice (and thus threw him under the bus when he lost)
Concurrent with that, a tide of Democrat support wiped out the huge majority the GOP had in the VA House of Delegates, including transwoman Danica Roem, who beat the guy who wrote the VA bathroom bill in a neat bit of poetic justice.

NJ: Christie's LTGOV Guadagno was soundly defeated by Democrat Phil Murphy

NY: DeBlasio, love him or hate him, was re-elected, a first for the Democrats since Ed Koch, beating his challenger badly. Also in NY, several seats flipped, notably including Nassau County Executive, which went blue, and Town of Hempstead (my town) Supervisor, which elected a Democrat for the first time in its history.

[White Haven]

'When asked about Bob Marshall, Danica Roem said “I don’t attack my constituents. Bob is my constituent now.”'

Classiest way I've ever seen used to take someone down at the ankles.

[TheFeniX]

I hear Alabama had a shake-up as well after some racist douchbaggery by an incumbent.

Much like it bit Democrats in the ass multiple time, this "it's in the bag" or "we won bros, just stay home" bullshit kills, politically. The hugbox of "Trump's our man, we control it all" is cancer. They can talk about Fake News all they want and how the polls that say GOP popularity is at an all time low mean nothing, but the facts are there. It's bad enough for your party to have Head Office. It's even worse to have head office and have hilariously bad popularity on top of that.

We've still got a while till mid-terms, but the showings here in the off-year "unsexy" elections show a trend. As Trump continues to alienate everyone, accomplishes nothing while berating "his own" party members, thus making them look even more weak and ineffectual, and Conservatives stop bothering with the "little things," Republicans will lose seats. And that's just talking about Trump and the effects of him being head asshole. Multiple other Republicans are showing themselves as weak-willed cronies, willing to give away any and all self-respect to render unto Trump.

So.... flip-flop of what we saw under Obama but 1,000 times worse because the average American (Hell, the average PERSON) liked Obama, even at his worst. Outside his jerk-off box (that section of people who think he can do no wrong), Trump isn't that popular. They are laughing at all the bad press Trump is getting and believing the good times won't end (like I said "we won, bro"). But these are the same types whose jaws hit the floor in Nov 2008 and 2012. They had their day, and just can't see the good times ending.

Anyways, just more of my useless ranting. Maybe we'll get some less shitty Democrats out of the deal.

Edit: I want to say I'm already laughing that in like... 6 months.. Cruz went from unassailable in 2018 to him needing to put up a fight. I'm hoping Castro runs, but all I know is I'm voting against Cruz. You know, because fuck that guy... I'm not the most enlightened voter, but I AM angry.

[The Romulan Republic]

Last night was amazing, almost the first bit of really good electoral news for the Democrats since last November, and hopefully an indication of what is to come in 2018.

I'm particularly happy about the results of the Virginia and New Jersey governor races (both of which the Democrats won by a fairly wide margin, I believe), and the Medicaid expansion vote in Maine.

Really, its as good a result as we could have hoped for, and takes the edge off of what would have otherwise been a very bitter anniversary (Donald Trump was "elected" one year ago today).

[MKSheppard]

Lonestar, I hate to say it, but you are about to be screwed.

The big thing is not that the Governor, Lt Governor and AG went D in Virginia, but the GOP control over the VA House was crushed:

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_ ... ions,_2017

Pre Nov 2017:
66 GOP
34 DNC

Post NOV 2017:
49 DNC
47 GOP
4 too close to call

November 8, 5:56 PM ET: Virginia House Republican leader says his party won a 51-49 majority in the chamber. Republican Speaker-designee Kirk Cox said the November 8 vote canvass showed that Republican candidates won seats in District 40 and District 94, meaning his party would retain control of the chamber.[2][3]

But who the hell knows? That slim majority can disappear fast given some sudden emotional issue causing some people to waver.

Traditionally, when the DNC has controlled the governor's mansion (McAuliffe), the GOP's control over the crucial congressional committees has meant that gun control bills die before they even get sent to McAuliffe's desk.

But after today? Who knows?

[Lonestar]

Lonestar, I hate to say it, but you are about to be screwed.

The big thing is not that the Governor, Lt Governor and AG went D in Virginia, but the GOP control over the VA House was crushed:

(1) I'm not going to be in Virginia after summer of 2019, come hell or high water. Might be in Texas, might be in CO, might be overseas. Won't be in Virginia.

(2)At least some of those Dems(I'm thinking of the one that ousted Yurst in Blacksburg) are soft when it comes to gun control language

(3)Gun rights got torpedoed because the State GOP ran crazy asshole bigots, and to top off the message they were sending the offical state GOP Twitter account made a implied accusation of Northam being a race traitor.

The inability of the GOP to read social trends and adjust their message accordingly continues to astound me. All over the gun forums I'm seeing, and have seen, people doing the "WELL Establishment Ed wasn't REALLY a Republican!" thing and say that what they need to do is to double fucking down on crazy racist bigots.

[The Romulan Republic]

We are rapidly approaching the point where it will be impossible to be a "REAL REPUBLICAN" without being an openly-avowed white supremacist/Neo-Nazi. And possibly an apologist for child molestation, too.

Which pretty much leaves the Democrats as the only game in town, for now at least, despite their flaws. Because its a two party system, and one of those parties is rapidly on its way to becoming the kind of existential threat to democracy that the 2nd. Amendment was intended to protect against.*

*And no, that's not me advocating armed revolt, though I admit, with no small amount of horror, that it is entirely possible that we will reach that point after another election cycle or two if we don't change course as a country. Just acknowledging the absurdity of voting for fascists to protect the 2nd. Amendment, though its pretty clear you realize this yourself.

[Raw Shark]

I personally support the 2nd Amendment and I vote Green. Eat what you kill, even if it's a burglar. America, fuck yeah.

I take some shit over this from the Left, as you might imagine. They also do not appreciate my position on nuclear fission. I contain multitudes.

[Simon_Jester]

We are rapidly approaching the point where it will be impossible to be a "REAL REPUBLICAN" without being an openly-avowed white supremacist/Neo-Nazi. And possibly an apologist for child molestation, too.

Which pretty much leaves the Democrats as the only game in town, for now at least, despite their flaws. Because its a two party system, and one of those parties is rapidly on its way to becoming the kind of existential threat to democracy that the 2nd. Amendment was intended to protect against.*

This is actually the ONE potential failure mode that can cause the US to generate a new political party- one of the parties becoming so out of touch with the median American voter that it no longer stands a chance of winning their support. This then creates at least one niche for a new party.

[The Romulan Republic]

I can envision a scenario where enough people bail on the Republican Party (and they are unable to attract new people due to habitually pissing on immigrants, minorities, and young voters) that the party becomes unelectable at the national level, with a fanatical neo-Nazi wing being all that's left after everyone who has a slight grasp on reality jumps ship. Or, alternatively, the moderates somehow regaining control of the party and the lunatics breaking off to one or more third parties, though that seems less likely to me right now.

Eventually, of course, things would stabilize again with two major parties, likely (presuming the Nazi takeover of the Right isn't a lasting phenomenon- if it is, we're in real trouble as a country) a Centre-Right party composed of moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats, with the progressive wing of the Dems. becoming a genuine progressive party.

In fact, that's probably the best remotely realistic long-term outcome for this country.