The other independence vote that doesn't seem as well known

[mr friendly guy]

Catalonia

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... dence-vote

'Goodbye Spain': Huge rally for Catalan independence before vote

Hundreds of thousands of Catalans rallied on Monday to demand their region's secession from Spain, in a show of strength three weeks ahead of an independence referendum which has been banned by Madrid.

Source: AFP
19 HOURS AGO UPDATED 18 HOURS AGO

Draped in red, yellow and blue separatist flags - with one banner reading "Goodbye Spain" - they marched through central Barcelona in what many hope will be the last protest before independence.

"If there is huge mobilisation, they can't do anything in Madrid," said Jordi Calatayud, a 21-year-old economics student, referring to the October 1 vote.

"Catalan people will make independence possible; if there are a lot of us, they can't stop us."

Around one million people took part in the event, Barcelona's municipal police said in a Twitter post. A spokeswoman for the central government's representative in the wealthy northeastern region put the turnout lower, at around 350,000 people.

The protest coincides with Catalonia's national day, the "Diada", which marks the fall of Barcelona in the War of the Spanish Succession in 1714 and the region's subsequent loss of institutions and freedoms.

Since 2012 the holiday has been used by separatists to press for an independent state.

"What more do we have to do to make it understood that the people of Catalonia want to vote?" Catalonia's pro-independence president Carles Puigdemont told reporters at the rally.


Spain's Catalonia announces October independence vote
The leader of Spain's Catalonia region, where a separatist movement is in full swing, on Friday announced an independence referendum for October 1 in defiance of Madrid.
'Put me in prison'
Those against independence complained that a day meant for all Catalans had been hijacked by separatists - and even more so this year, ahead of the referendum.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose conservative government is fiercely against the vote, wished Catalonia "a good day", calling "for a Diada of freedom, cohabitation and respect for all Catalans".

Demonstrators took the shape of a giant "X" by gathering on the Paseo de Gracia and Aragon avenues in central Barcelona, to represent the mark Catalans will make on their ballots during the referendum.

If the "Yes" side wins, Catalonia's regional government has vowed to declare independence within 48 hours and set about building a sovereign state.

With Spain's central government promising to block the referendum, the pro-independence camp was keen to show that it can rally its troops -- especially after participation in the "Diada" declined last year.

"I am too old to be told what I can or can't do, I am counting on voting and I will do so, even if they have to put me in prison," said Mari Carmen Pla, a 70-year-old pensioner surrounded by a sea of red and yellow Catalan independence flags.

Region divided
Rajoy's conservative government has said the vote violates Spain's constitution, which states that only central authorities can call a referendum.

Following a legal challenge from his government, Spain's Constitutional Court suspended a referendum law that was fast-tracked through Catalonia's regional parliament on Wednesday.

Police have searched a Catalan printing house and a local weekly newspaper suspected of making ballots for the referendum, while Spain's state prosecutor has opened criminal proceedings against Puigdemont and other Catalan officials.


Catalan government angers Spain after voting for independence referendum
The Catalan parliament has angered the Madrid government after deciding they would allow their residents to vote on their independence from Spain.
Catalan society is deeply divided over independence.

In a survey by the Catalan Centre of Opinion Studies in July, 41.1 percent backed independence while 49.9 percent rejected it. But about 70 percent wanted a referendum, to settle the question once and for all.

Like the referendum held in Britain last year on the country's membership in the European Union, the issue in Catalonia pits rural areas - which are more pro-independence - against large urban centres like Barcelona which are more in favour of remaining in Spain.

Catalonia, roughly the same size as Belgium, has its own language and customs, and already has significant powers over matters such as education and healthcare.

But Spain's economic problems, coupled with a perception that the wealthy northeastern region's 7.5 million people pay more in taxes to Madrid than they get in return, have pushed the independence question to the centre stage.

During the 2013 "Diada" demonstrators formed a human chain that crossed Catalonia.

The following year the demonstration took the shape of a giant "V" for "vote", while in 2015 the march resembled a human arrow.

Politico has some nice graphics showcasing the economic contribution Catalonia makes to Spain.

October 1 should be an interesting date to keep track of for those interested in geopolitics. So should this be called the vote for Catexit (sounds sort of like catastrophe) or Cexit? An independent Catalonia would make for interesting times in the EU. Does Catalonian citizens lose EU citizenship as well?

What is the view from Spanish members here?

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm opposed for the same reason that I'm opposed to Brexit or Scottish independence, or Quebec separatism here in Canada: Its a step backwards, and a regression to the days of small regional or ethnic-based countries, and of rampant nationalism- a past Europe understandably tried to leave behind after it gave humanity two world wars in a quarter of a century.

Moreover, even if the motives of a given separatist movement are different, any disintegration of the EU at this point plays directly into the hands of the Trump/Bannon/Farrage/La Penn neo-fascists, and of Vladimir Putin, and thus represents a defeat for liberal democracy by neo-fascism, and a global geo-political threat.

Edit: I'll bet you that their will turn out to be Russian agents/bots actively promoting the separatist cause.

[Crazedwraith]

An indepedent Catalonia blatantly isn't happening considering the vote is illegal so Madrid isn't honouring the result in any way shape or form.

They've wanted indepedence for a long time TRR no russian involvement necessary. Just like there wasnt any in the Scottish one

[Elheru Aran]

Not to mention that Spain isn't particularly relevant to Russia's interests, being both on the low end of the European economic scale and a long way from Russia geographically. I mean, in general they probably wouldn't say no to having some influence past what they might already have diplomatically, but Spain just isn't particularly a big blip on their radar compared to say France or Germany.

Re the Catalan independence thing: this has been going on for a LONG time, but it's never really going to take unless Madrid starts taking them seriously, and they're not interested in that anytime soon.

[mr friendly guy]

I think the vote will put political pressure on Madrid. The West always talks a great game about self determination, but it will be interesting to see if they actually follow on their rhetoric and put pressure on Spain to respect the result of the referendum if more people vote for independence.

[The Romulan Republic]

An indepedent Catalonia blatantly isn't happening considering the vote is illegal so Madrid isn't honouring the result in any way shape or form.

They've wanted indepedence for a long time TRR no russian involvement necessary. Just like there wasnt any in the Scottish one

Please do not straw man. I never argued that the support of (some) Catalans for independence was manufactured by Russia. Just that I'd be shocked if Russia didn't further egg it on, as part of their general strategy to undermine the EU and NATO.

[The Romulan Republic]

Granted, I'll certainly acknowledge that I have no evidence that it has happened yet. Its just a cynical prediction born out of unpleasant experience.

[Crazedwraith]

An indepedent Catalonia blatantly isn't happening considering the vote is illegal so Madrid isn't honouring the result in any way shape or form.

They've wanted indepedence for a long time TRR no russian involvement necessary. Just like there wasnt any in the Scottish one

Please do not straw man. I never argued that the support of (some) Catalans for independence was manufactured by Russia. Just that I'd be shocked if Russia didn't further egg it on, as part of their general strategy to undermine the EU and NATO.

Excuse me? Read carefully and you'll see I did not make that "strawman". Involvement =/= sole cause of.

[The Romulan Republic]

An indepedent Catalonia blatantly isn't happening considering the vote is illegal so Madrid isn't honouring the result in any way shape or form.

They've wanted indepedence for a long time TRR no russian involvement necessary. Just like there wasnt any in the Scottish one

Please do not straw man. I never argued that the support of (some) Catalans for independence was manufactured by Russia. Just that I'd be shocked if Russia didn't further egg it on, as part of their general strategy to undermine the EU and NATO.

Excuse me? Read carefully and you'll see I did not make that "strawman". Involvement =/= sole cause of.

"They've wanted independence for a long time TRR no russian involvement necessary." That's what I was responding to. That phrasing only made sense to me if you were taking my argument as claiming that the Russians were behind the support for independence.

That said, the straw man accusation was excessive, and I retract it.

As I said, I've got no evidence that Russia has interfered previously. I'm simply making an educated guess as to what I expect to see happen based on other recent elections in EU/NATO nations.

In any case, weather or not Russia intervenes here, its fairly safe to say that the weakening of a NATO member and undermining of the EU that could result from a Catalan secession (and if most Catalans vote for it, and their local politicians continue to push for it regardless of what the law says, I don't see how Spain could stop it short of fighting the first civil war in a Western European country in decades) would benefit Putin's strategic objectives. That alone is reason enough for me to be skeptical of the merits of Catalan separatism.

[Crazedwraith]

Ooh kay, down the rabbit hole I go.

Please do not straw man. I never argued that the support of (some) Catalans for independence was manufactured by Russia. Just that I'd be shocked if Russia didn't further egg it on, as part of their general strategy to undermine the EU and NATO.

Excuse me? Read carefully and you'll see I did not make that "strawman". Involvement =/= sole cause of.

"They've wanted independence for a long time TRR no russian involvement necessary." That's what I was responding to. That phrasing only made sense to me if you were taking my argument as claiming that the Russians were behind the support for independence.

That said, the straw man accusation was excessive, and I retract it.

As I said, I've got no evidence that Russia has interfered previously. I'm simply making an educated guess as to what I expect to see happen based on other recent elections in EU/NATO nations.

In any case, weather or not Russia intervenes here, its fairly safe to say that the weakening of a NATO member and undermining of the EU that could result from a Catalan secession (and if most Catalans vote for it, and their local politicians continue to push for it regardless of what the law says, I don't see how Spain could stop it short of fighting the first civil war in a Western European country in decades) would benefit Putin's strategic objectives. That alone is reason enough for me to be skeptical of the merits of Catalan separatism.

I apologise if my phrasing as unclear. All I meant was. There has been support for/desire for Catalan independence for a long time, therefore there is nothing unusual about their current referendum, therefore nothing to indicate it has been caused or encouraged or involves the Russians in any way.

As you yourself admit there's no evidence in this case. In fact I'm not seeing much of this pattern you claim at all. Other than the American Presidential primaries/election, I can't think of one where they've even purportedly interfered. Maybe some hacks around French presidential candidates? Seriously lay out this big pattern, I've missed some things obviously.

[The Romulan Republic]

France, as you said. US. They've also alledgedly interfered in Eastern European elections in the past IIRC. There's apparently a lot of concern about upcoming German elections as well:

https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/t ... -election/

Two particularly telling excerpts:

The aforementioned annual report on domestic intelligence notes in its chapter on Russian measures that besides espionage at a "high organizational and financial volume", Russian intelligence services are also "attempting to influence Germany's decisionmakers and public opinion."

The topic has been prominent on the radar of German think tanks and media for the past three years-roughly coinciding with the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of large-scale Russian trolling in German social media.

Heightened awareness in Germany is due to several high-profile cases of active measures in Germany, but also to the salience of the issue in the United States, in France, and elsewhere in Europe.

As for the September 24 elections, there seems to be a broad consensus in Berlin that Russia will attempt to meddle with the decision of the voters.

So make of that what you will.

Edit: The article is dated to June, so it may be a little dated as well.

[K. A. Pital]

"Weakening of a NATO member" blah blah blah.

Spanish fascists executed Catalan patriots, carried out their petty vengeance on the population of Catalonia, and post-war nobody bothered to remove Franco for many decades.

I can kind of see why Catalonia doesn't want to be a part of the glorious Spanish monarchy, even many years after. Even without Russia.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, I can understand that. But at the same time... Spain isn't Franco's Spain any more. Obviously.

This is a problem I have with most separatist movements- they're ultimately based in the past, trying to refight some past historical conflict, rather than dealing with the hear and now to try to build a better future.

As to the NATO thing... in a better world, there'd be no need for NATO. But given that its probably the only thing keeping Vladimir Putin from turning the whole of the Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states into puppet regimes our outright annexing them... I'd be wary of dispensing with it now.

[mr friendly guy]

Spain has threaten to arrest 700 Catalan mayors for helping with the vote. Its been reported on numerous newsites from across the political spectrum, so I will just pick the first one that turns up on google.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09 ... um-mayors/

I expect outrage from the EU and US, Freedom house, National endowment for democracy and BBC to do an opinion piece criticising such undemocratic actions in 3,2,1..... negative 100,000.... negative 1 million... Ok who am I kidding?

[The Romulan Republic]

It is an illegal vote. That said, arresting seven hundred mayors seems like a rather unfortunate escalation, which is probably only going to make things worse. Presuming they go through with it.

If they don't... well, generally, only an idiot makes threats they aren't prepared to carry out. Because when someone calls your bluff, it reduces your credibility in the future, and makes it more likely, not less, that your authority will be challenged.

[mr friendly guy]

If Russia declares voting in Crimea or some other part illegal in regards to independence or some anti Putin measure, are you going to agree on it on the grounds of legality. Just curious.

[K. A. Pital]

It is an illegal vote.

It was a peaceful vote, which, like peaceful protest, could be illegal only under extremely tight legalistic interpretations, no?

[Thanas]

If Russia declares voting in Crimea or some other part illegal in regards to independence or some anti Putin measure, are you going to agree on it on the grounds of legality. Just curious.

Crimea is a shitty point to make and you know it. So I will assume it happens in say, St. Petersburg. In which case I would agree that yes, it would be illegal if Russia were a democracy and not some kleptocratic dictatorship.

As for Catalonia I cannot really expect it will fall under my treshold of having 66% of the voters in favor for it. Most polls not concluded by the secessionissts feature a number of 48-41% in favor of it. Which is not really enough.

[K. A. Pital]

Still, it is a peaceful vote which is, at its most, as specified by the organizers, meant to help a regional government to carry out a peaceful secession from Spain. The legality of the referendum is disputed - even if Spain considers it illegal, the regional government does not and as it intends to secede anyway, considers it legal within their regional legal framework.

I don't think there's much to be said against the Catalan case. You can't even paint much of a bogeyman of them.

[Thanas]

Still, it is a peaceful vote which is, at its most, as specified by the organizers, meant to help a regional government to carry out a peaceful secession from Spain.

Is it a peaceful vote if the catalan government tries to use death threats and hate mail by its supporters in order to force mayors to carry out the referendum? I feel for the mayors, on the one side you have the spanish government threatening you with prison, on the other you have the secesssionists threatening you with violence.

The legality of the referendum is disputed - even if Spain considers it illegal, the regional government does not and as it intends to secede anyway, considers it legal within their regional legal framework.

Constitutional and federal law > regional law. Thus it is not a dispute, it is one side committing a clearly illegal act and claiming that the laws they passed themselves give them the power to do so. Which to be honest is not really much of an argument.

This is the equivalent of Texas passing a state law declaring that it is legal for them to secede from the union.

[mr friendly guy]

Crimea is a shitty point to make and you know it. So I will assume it happens in say, St. Petersburg. In which case I would agree that yes, it would be illegal if Russia were a democracy and not some kleptocratic dictatorship.

Well of course it would be illegal, but I am asking whether TRR would support Russia's hypothetical actions on the grounds that its their laws.

However you raise an interesting conundrum, most probably without meaning to. Countries can deny regions a vote on secession using a legal framework, as long as they are democracies. But if they do this, are they still democracies? It doesn't seem very democratic does it to deny people the right to vote on such an issue as self determination.

[K. A. Pital]

This is the equivalent of Texas passing a state law declaring that it is legal for them to secede from the union.

As national indepence was mostly achieved through illegal and violent secession in the past, I can see non-violent secession only as an improvement, not as a worsening or unwelcome development.

It is the reasoning and story behind the secession which are important, not whether it is strictly legal or not.

Ireland would have still been a colony, had legality been the only thing to consider. And going by the "legal" logic, I should be dismissive of Ireland's independence, as it was achieved through violence and clear defiance of British law.

[Thanas]

However you raise an interesting conundrum, most probably without meaning to. Countries can deny regions a vote on secession using a legal framework, as long as they are democracies. But if they do this, are they still democracies? It doesn't seem very democratic does it to deny people the right to vote on such an issue as self determination.

They are perfectly able to vote for a political party representing them in the national asssembly.

This is the equivalent of Texas passing a state law declaring that it is legal for them to secede from the union.

As national indepence was mostly achieved through illegal and violent secession in the past, I can see non-violent secession only as an improvement, not as a worsening or unwelcome development.

It is the reasoning and story behind the secession which are important, not whether it is strictly legal or not.

So what is it that make this secesssion attempt a good story?

Ireland would have still been a colony, had legality been the only thing to consider. And going by the "legal" logic, I should be dismissive of Ireland's independence, as it was achieved through violence and clear defiance of British law.

Hardly the same thing as I outlined above, Catalonia is neither oppressed nor are their citizens treated as second-class humans.

[K. A. Pital]

They are perfectly able to vote for a political party representing them in the national asssembly.

That's not enough, though. Especially if they are a national minority, being able to vote for a political party in the national parliament doesn't change much.

So what is it that make this secesssion attempt a good story?

Lack of violence? A desire to be a new democratic state in Europe, minus the Spanish rule?

Hardly the same thing as I outlined above, Catalonia is neither oppressed nor are their citizens treated as second-class humans.

Even if that was all true, alas, it is not for you to decide how they are treated, nor for the central government. The sovereignity always lies with the people, and the ultimate expression of such sovereignity may also lie in utter and total defiance of the government. The Catalans were mistreated historically, just like the Irish, and it is their right to raise the question of independence now, with decades of fascist boot on their face still fresh in their memories. Raising it even later would be even stranger, do you not agree?

[The Romulan Republic]

It is an illegal vote.

It was a peaceful vote, which, like peaceful protest, could be illegal only under extremely tight legalistic interpretations, no?

Generally, I'd be inclined to agree with you.

It is very dangerous, however, to any kind of political stability, to allow a region to unilaterally decide to leave the country.

To be clear, I don't think they ought to arrest the mayors in question, but I do think that they're in the wrong. Just that its not worth the provocation/escalation of a mass arrest of elected officials.