CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Gandalf »

CNN wrote:This week it was Bebe. Last month it was Staples. In February it was JCPenney.

Stores are closing at an epic pace. In fact, the retail industry could suffer far more store closures this year than ever.

Brokerage firm Credit Suisse said in a research report released earlier this month that it's possible more than 8,600 brick-and-mortar stores will close their doors in 2017.

For comparison, the report says 2,056 stores closed down in 2016 and 5,077 were shuttered in 2015. The worst year on record is 2008, when 6,163 stores shut down.

"Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings have already surpassed those of 2008," the report says.

If stores do close at the rate Credit Suisse is projecting, it could mean America will lose more than 147 million square feet of retail space this year.

Physical store fronts have been eclipsed by ecommerce masters like Amazon. The toll it's taken can be seen in emptying malls and shopping centers across the country.

Among the casualties announced so far this year: Bebe said it's closing all of its retails spaces, JCPenney (JCP) announced plans to shutter 138 stores by July, Payless ShoeSource is closing hundreds of stores, and Macy's (M) said it's shutting down 68 locations.

And onetime retail powerhouse Sears -- which also owns Kmart -- said in March that the company has "substantial doubt" that it can survive.
Also, here is a little photoessay about the loss of retail spaces.

One of the fascinating things brought up in the photoessay is that shopping malls existed as social spaces which kept their retail arms active. I can't bother to remember how much money I pissed away in shopping centres when I was a wayward teenager with few other places to be. However, just as internet retail has turned many stores into Amazon showrooms, so too has the internet supplanted their social function as well. It's an interesting trend, considering that this is merely the refinement of capitalism for which the Cold War was fought so violently.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Esquire »

Well... Yeah, that's unfortunate for the employees, but on the other hand didn't it seem a bit ridiculous to anybody else that the pattern was four stores next door to each other or across the street selling more-or-less the same thing? I'd call it a reduction in retail oversupply, if anything.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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There's more than just E-stores like Amazon hitting these retailers. The purchase power for the average household has dropped to the point where there just isn't the money to go to stores.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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LadyTevar wrote:There's more than just E-stores like Amazon hitting these retailers. The purchase power for the average household has dropped to the point where there just isn't the money to go to stores.
Yeah. At this point it's more economical for most families to simply go to the closest Walmart and get whatever they need there. Clothes, food, shoes, even oil changes and tire repair, gas, rental movies via Redbox... local groceries do offer some competition to Walmart as far as food and pharmaceuticals go, but that's about it.

The big-box chains like JCP etc. simply weren't offering stuff as cut-rate as Walmart unless they sold stuff at bottom-of-the-barrel prices. The middle class still likes to shop at these places... but they're also just as likely to buy stuff online, and that seems to be an ever growing category (no longer niche) at the moment.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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LadyTevar wrote:There's more than just E-stores like Amazon hitting these retailers. The purchase power for the average household has dropped to the point where there just isn't the money to go to stores.
My sensation is that it's a curious race for the bottom where every person in the cycle is acting reasonably within their own self-interests, but the aggregate result drives them further down in the hole. It starts with a household that tries to economise because housing, healthcare and education eat up a substantial chunk of their budget. To make the most of what remains, they seek out the cheapest options for their purchases. This can even end up being slightly irrational as shopping around for marginal savings may be worth far less than the time spent to make them. But, because we also see shopping as a recreation we're happy to continue in this habit.

So forced to compete on price, retailers cut margins where possible to the extent that it's really only the largest operations that can possibly survive and preferably those that have as little rental overhead as possible*. And because it's only the big players that survive, they have considerably greater labour bargaining capacity, capital to invest in innovation and automation**, and political lobbying power from the lower local level ("We're planning a large retail centre that will bring hundreds of jobs, can you upgrade your infrastructure to support it?") to the federal level ("Here's $10,000 in donations to get re-elected. Please don't change the minimum wage.")

Big players are still forced to compete among each other though, and so to find savings where possible, they squeeze their labour in whatever way they can. Lobbying to keep local minimum wage low or have their labour subsidised, illegal hiring practices, wage theft, or just handing it off to somebody else to do the dirty work through subcontracting or franchise agreements, there are a number of creative ways they can accomplish this.

And its the breadwinners mentioned in the beginning paragraph that make up the labour. So, feeling the squeeze, they economise where possible and shop for the cheapest options...

And I really don't see this changing. As consumers, we're so conditioned to looking for the lowest price possible, we aren't able to consider the cost.

*As an aside, I suspect a lot of commercial real estate owners are going to be the next on the chopping block as it becomes impossible for most tenants to afford the pretty outrageous rents that commercially zoned property tends to attract. Anecdotally they seem content to sit on vacant units for considerable lengths of time but they have interest to pay back and I can't see that going on forever.

**The state of the art now appears to be a retailer that owns no stock. 'Tis a curious world.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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LadyTevar wrote:There's more than just E-stores like Amazon hitting these retailers. The purchase power for the average household has dropped to the point where there just isn't the money to go to stores.
Indeed, and there are similar phenomena here, especially in places where people don't own cars because of the expense/practicality, and Sydney's dystopian layout can thus make grocery shopping awkward. Groceries are ordered online and delivered soon afterwards, because otherwise it can be a multi-hour round trip.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Flagg »

I'm sick of always being hit up by some scumbag tweaker(s) for money when going to my car with a cartload of food. I don't let my mom go to the fucking grocery store alone since the last time she did some pieces of strung out shit started taking bottles of water out of her cart. I got her a small push knife that fits on her keychain (she's felt the need to pull it in defense twice) because it's just fucking stupid. And they do it in the middle of the day because parked cars obscure the view of the worthless rent'a'pigs that stand in front of the store.

We've started going at like 5-7am because the worthless ice-head cunts won't approach you in the middle of an empty parking lot. The worst part is that it's not the whole town and city, just anywhere within a mile or 2 of I-5. And it's not like the professional pigs don't do anything, it's just this corridor between Lynnwood to Smokey Point/Arlington where for some reason the vultures hover. I've even started carrying a 5" lock blade in a hidden pocket where I used to stash my weed. :lol:

But really, if a grocery delivery system were cost effective for us, we'd do it. One day I'm going have to pull my blade again and some fogged out speed freak's fight or flight wires are going to misfire and I'll end up having to go through the justice system because the cops won't go no tolerance for a few weeks until they get the point that it's best to play "out of gas college kid (poorly)" somewhere else.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Starglider »

To survive, malls need to offer a 'shopping experience', i.e. be a destination for a day out similar to the way theme parks operate. High-end malls are doing quite well on this basis; customers willing to overpay for items because they like wandering around the space. Non-retail attractions help with this; in fact this is why I thought the rennovation of the MetroCentre in north UK was so bad. They took a mall that had detailed theming that made it a nice unique space to walk around, and an actual integrated mini theme park, shut down the theme park part, and removed all the other themeing such that it's an ultra-bland white void of mid-scale shops. They did put in a lot of restaurants and revamped the cinema multiplex, but the latter is also on the decline due to price escalation killing the low end and home theatre getting so good killing the high end.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Zaune »

Even then, if you want a "shopping experience" then you probably need to aim for bespoke/"quirky" boutique-type retailers rather than the big chains. I doubt many people are willing to travel out of town and make a day of it just to buy the same stuff they could find online, no matter how nice the scenery and other amenities might be.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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I am not surprised. The main mall when I grew up was already demolished outright, and I think four or five years ago now too. Large amounts of western retail never made any real money, many of the stores functionally existed as advertisements and would be kept around even operating at a loss for decades on that basis. Internet based advertising makes that kind of strategy pointless on it's own.

On the other hand, if malls keep imploding maybe at some point mankind will actually reclaim the damn land and farm it again, even resort forest plots. It might suck now, every big wave of economic disruption does but long term it has some big advantages.

Some retail will always survive I think, and a lot of it comes down to diversity, but not redundancy. Also its much less important that malls be enclosed, and that saves a huge amount of money operating the malls, those huge flat roofs they all have suck up money without even considering the AC bill. That means rents for the stores can be lower making them more viable.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Sea Skimmer wrote:On the other hand, if malls keep imploding maybe at some point mankind will actually reclaim the damn land and farm it again, even resort forest plots.
Malls are situated close to customers i.e. existing housing or at least transport links. The plots aren't going to go back to farmland unless the local area is seeing severe population decline, and even then it's hard to imagine it being worth the effort to break up all the slab foundations and parking lots and restore topsoil. Most of the US is still growing so more housing is the most likely outcome for the vacant plots, even if it takes a couple of decades to demolish and re-zone.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Starglider wrote:Malls are situated close to customers i.e. existing housing or at least transport links. The plots aren't going to go back to farmland unless the local area is seeing severe population decline, and even then it's hard to imagine it being worth the effort to break up all the slab foundations and parking lots and restore topsoil. Most of the US is still growing so more housing is the most likely outcome for the vacant plots, even if it takes a couple of decades to demolish and re-zone.
It's likely different in high density areas and cities where they would be close, but at least in my part of the US (Middlesex County, Massachusetts) most large shopping malls are usually complexes of their own well removed from housing, and usually only near office space that pops up near them, often built next to a highway.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Zoning seems to be an obstacle here, otherwise it might be possible to do some additional construction on malls and reconfigure them into mixed rental housing/retail spaces (although they'd have to do a lot of work to run plumbing in - no idea if that would be cheaper than simply demolishing the mall and building something else).

The mall that seems to be thriving around here has focused heavily on expanding the food options and giving more space to the giant anchor tenants (H&M, etc). It's good, but maybe a little disappointing because one of the virtues of the whole Mall set-up was that it concentrated enough traffic (in theory) so that smaller retail outlets could make a go at it. Think of the mid-aisle cart stands.
Sea Skimmer wrote:Also its much less important that malls be enclosed, and that saves a huge amount of money operating the malls, those huge flat roofs they all have suck up money without even considering the AC bill. That means rents for the stores can be lower making them more viable.
Both of the new-ish downtown malls-with-apartments-attached in Salt Lake City have been non-enclosed (although one of them does have a retractable roof in case the weather gets too bad even if there's no heating and A/C). If they're willing to do that in a state where it can be cold and have snow on the ground for at least three months out of the year, the cost savings must be pretty big.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Zaune wrote:Even then, if you want a "shopping experience" then you probably need to aim for bespoke/"quirky" boutique-type retailers rather than the big chains. I doubt many people are willing to travel out of town and make a day of it just to buy the same stuff they could find online, no matter how nice the scenery and other amenities might be.
There is if you focus more on the social component of the shopping. It's not about what you buy, it's with whom you buy it and the experience on offer.

A good example of this is cinemas. They were once purely about the maximum number of screenings and arses on seats. Quality was not a real priority for most places. However, after home video arose and gave consumers the option of watching films in the comfort of their own home, a lot of cinemas were forced to make changes to their offering. It stopped being about "seeing a film," and became "experiencing a big new film within a special space."

Interestingly, research is showing that people today aren't so interested in buying products as they are in buying (usually social) experiences with disposable income. For example, why buy (some object) when you can spend the same money on a nice dinner/day out/holiday/other?
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Zaune »

You can't really make a social experience out of most forms of shopping, though. I could sort of see it for wedding preparations or buying a bunch of stuff for a new house or that sort of thing, but not for mundane stuff like buying groceries or white goods. That sort of thing's a chore to be endured rather than something you make an occasion of.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Gandalf wrote: Interestingly, research is showing that people today aren't so interested in buying products as they are in buying (usually social) experiences with disposable income. For example, why buy (some object) when you can spend the same money on a nice dinner/day out/holiday/other?
I think a lot of that can be attributed to marketing. I remember seeing a lot of ads over the last few years telling people that experiences are more important than things. Spend your money on experiences. etc. So it could be self fulfilling research to an extent.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Guardsman Bass wrote:The mall that seems to be thriving around here has focused heavily on expanding the food options and giving more space to the giant anchor tenants (H&M, etc).
That's interesting, because I can think of one mall in our area that recently gutted the food court to make room for a Dick's. They lost us as customers, because the food and the carousel in the food court were the only reasons we bothered going to the mall.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Starglider wrote: Malls are situated close to customers i.e. existing housing or at least transport links. The plots aren't going to go back to farmland unless the local area is seeing severe population decline, and even then it's hard to imagine it being worth the effort to break up all the slab foundations and parking lots and restore topsoil. Most of the US is still growing so more housing is the most likely outcome for the vacant plots, even if it takes a couple of decades to demolish and re-zone.
Ha, you say that but American mall and shopping construction never followed strict logic on this, the overbuilding has been going on since the car was invented. And populations really are in severe decline all over this country. As is I know spots where trees in abandon parking lots have already seriously begun recovering the tarmac with actual dirt accumulation. It may take many decades, even centuries but after a certain point the pavement will fail completely and then things will sped up when larger weeds can root into the cracks. The main threat to all of this is global warming doom summers. But those will also help cause sinkholes to breakup the pavement...

Guardsman Bass wrote:Zoning seems to be an obstacle here, otherwise it might be possible to do some additional construction on malls and reconfigure them into mixed rental housing/retail spaces (although they'd have to do a lot of work to run plumbing in - no idea if that would be cheaper than simply demolishing the mall and building something else).
They'd demolish and rebuild, nothing else would make sense and mall structures are not known for longevity anyway.

The mall that seems to be thriving around here has focused heavily on expanding the food options and giving more space to the giant anchor tenants (H&M, etc). It's good, but maybe a little disappointing because one of the virtues of the whole Mall set-up was that it concentrated enough traffic (in theory) so that smaller retail outlets could make a go at it. Think of the mid-aisle cart stands.
Those kind of stands are exactly the kind of thing massively nuked by interweb shopping. Very specialist, very low margins. Of course if you have high enough traffic they can still exist, but they are always the first to die.
Both of the new-ish downtown malls-with-apartments-attached in Salt Lake City have been non-enclosed (although one of them does have a retractable roof in case the weather gets too bad even if there's no heating and A/C). If they're willing to do that in a state where it can be cold and have snow on the ground for at least three months out of the year, the cost savings must be pretty big.
Thousands and tens of thousands of dollars a day kind of range depending on how big a place is, never mind the original cost of the equipment and the need to replace it periodically, commercial AC units last around 9-10 years.

I think one factor behind this also has to be that if the weather is bad customers tend to shop less anyway, so the advantage of being fully enclosed is less absolute then it might be, at least anywhere without a hot climate.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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What I'm seeing more and more is small retail centers clustered around a larger store or two. Say a Walmart or Target or similar big-box store, then a Lowe's or Home Depot nearby if not on the same lot, and then an assortment of restaurants or specialty stores like bookstores, furniture stores, etc. in smaller establishments. It's basically almost the same experience as a mall, but the stores are more flexible as they can be open whenever they want without worrying about the mall closing on them, and customers can just shortcut across the lot with their car rather than having to walk from one end to the other of the mall. Also a more efficient use of property for realtors as you aren't having to build a massive single structure and subdivide it; just build stores adjoining each other as called for by expansion of the local population.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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Zaune wrote:You can't really make a social experience out of most forms of shopping, though. I could sort of see it for wedding preparations or buying a bunch of stuff for a new house or that sort of thing, but not for mundane stuff like buying groceries or white goods. That sort of thing's a chore to be endured rather than something you make an occasion of.
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I've spend a whole day in a mall with female friends who just wanted to hang out and be sociable. We'd hit every store, trying on clothing, pointing out sales, gossiping, teasing, joking, sitting down to eat, etc. We might even buy things.
Also, the mall was once a place where high school kids could escape their parents for a few hours and hang with friends. Back when there were video arcades, game stores, places kids could hang out and watch the other sex, or maybe meet someone for a date.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

Post by Zaune »

Either your local mall was a lot nicer than mine (which is quite likely given that I'm from a town so shitty that I moved to Luton to get away from it) or this is one of those things you have to be neurotypical, a girl or both to really get.
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Re: CNN: US stores are closing at an epic pace

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My local mall used to have a LEGO store when I was younger. Even in my mid-teens I liked to stop by and would usually browse for a bit, often purchasing a small set and then going to the mall's Radioshack to browse there, then Newbury Comics and Gamestop. Usually visited stores after going to the movies there, too.

Now the mall only has Newbury Comics (Gamestop is technically still there but it's garbage now) and has lost several other stores that I can't quite remember, in addition to those I liked. If I see a movie at the mall I usually leave afterwards, since there's really nothing there anymore.

I pretty much only go there now to get my car's tires changed twice a year and if I need to buy clothes. So every year I probably don't go to the mall more than five times at most, whereas when it had more stores I would go maybe twenty times a year. And I hate going out.
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