Brexit and General UK politics thread

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The Vortex Empire
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by The Vortex Empire »

Venator wrote:
streetad wrote:We are potentially looking at an unprecedented and weird situation where Scottish voters could be imposing an unpopular Tory government on the English...
Can you explain for the benefit of a Canadian who has trouble with the concept of more than two parties being relevant?

Is that because Scotts are voting for May instead of SNP, or because SNP would likely form a coalition with the Tories over Labour?
The former, SNP is losing seats to the Tories in Scotland. Sturgeon, leader of the SNP, has said that she would help Labour form a government.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/872931826444193792
Nicola Sturgeon: I will help Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister in a hung parliament #ElectionDay2017
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by streetad »

Scotland is the only place that the Tories are actually winning new seats. It's probably not going to be enough from their point of view to replace the seats they are losing elsewhere but probably enough to put together a coalition with the Ulster Unionists.

It's ironic given the SNP argument that independence is needed to save Scotland from having Tory rule imposed on them by English voters.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

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The way things are looking on the BBC website, the Tories will pretty much need one other party to form a coalition government. Labour will need nearly all of them.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by The Romulan Republic »

streetad wrote:We are potentially looking at an unprecedented and weird situation where Scottish voters could be imposing an unpopular Tory government on the English...
I admit that I don't know as much about British politics as American or Canadian, by why in God's name would the SNP want to form a coalition with the Conservatives over Labour?
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by The Vortex Empire »

The Romulan Republic wrote:
streetad wrote:We are potentially looking at an unprecedented and weird situation where Scottish voters could be imposing an unpopular Tory government on the English...
I admit that I don't know as much about British politics as American or Canadian, by why in God's name would the SNP want to form a coalition with the Conservatives over Labour?
They wouldn't, but the SNP is losing seats in Scotland to the Tories. Thus, Scottish Tory seats possibly giving them a majority.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by streetad »

Some good analysis from the BBC tonight - the share of the popular vote won by the Tories was actually up by around 6% from 2015,, and a similar level to those providing huge stonking majorities for Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher. Whereas Labour's share of the vote is as high as some of Blair's later wins and in previous elections would ALSO have been enough to win an outright majority.

What has actually happened is that UK politics has become much more polarised and smaller parties are being squeezed out. It doesnt bode particularly well for parties being able to obtain decent working majorities at all in the future.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by ray245 »

streetad wrote:Some good analysis from the BBC tonight - the share of the popular vote won by the Tories was actually up by around 6% from 2015,, and a similar level to those providing huge stonking majorities for Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher. Whereas Labour's share of the vote is as high as some of Blair's later wins and in previous elections would ALSO have been enough to win an outright majority.

What has actually happened is that UK politics has become much more polarised and smaller parties are being squeezed out. It doesnt bode particularly well for parties being able to obtain decent working majorities at all in the future.
Blame the Lib Dems.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by His Divine Shadow »

Rich people are gonna give up their money, or else. That's what's what.

That's my long term prognosis anyway, can't have a working economy when all the money that should be swishing about floats at the surface like an oil slick on a stagnant pool.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by SpottedKitty »

Gandalf wrote:The way things are looking on the BBC website, the Tories will pretty much need one other party to form a coalition government.
After what happened last time? Who'd want to partner with them? :wtf:
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by His Divine Shadow »

Time to invent some new swear words for this
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2017

Hung parliament.

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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by Vendetta »

streetad wrote: What has actually happened is that UK politics has become much more polarised and smaller parties are being squeezed out. It doesnt bode particularly well for parties being able to obtain decent working majorities at all in the future.
Not really.

The Greens have lost a bit but were involved in a lot of tactical voting and stood aside in some constituencies they'd previously done well in to keep the tories out, whilst in the one seat they actually have they increased their vote share 10%. Lib Dems are only down 0.7%.

The massive vote share losers have been UKIP because, well, nobody needs them any more. They were a one issue party and they got their issue. So all their voters have returned to the Big Two. And the SNP, who underestimated the strength and intersectionality of pro-brexit/pro-union feeling in Scotland and so lost more seats to the tories than would have been conceivable two years ago. (any at all). Scottish Labour were a poorer alternative there because they're split on both issues. (And they only lost 3% vote share.

Combine that with one of the worst personal performances from a prime minister in history. Not just during the shambles of a campaign either, despite looking like the safe pair of hands, which almost anyone can do in a room with Gove and Johnson, her first big ticket policy was grammar schools that nobody else wanted, she spent immense time and effort fighting against the article 50 commons vote despite being guaranteed to win it anyway, and then she called a general election she didn't need to (because she'd faced absolutely no defeats in the commons over brexit and had no demonstrated need to enhance her majority) and said she wouldn't.

All of this will make Prime Minister Boris Johnson (and don't think that won't happen now,about the only person who could get enough support from the party to stop him would be Ruth Davidson and she's not allowed to try) seem fucking competent
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by madd0ct0r »

And its a hung parliament.

May wanted a mandate. She's received a cross dressing dwarf.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

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madd0ct0r wrote:And its a hung parliament.

May wanted a mandate. She's received a cross dressing dwarf.
I hate you for making me choke-laugh at that :lol:
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by Lord Revan »

Iroscato wrote:
madd0ct0r wrote:And its a hung parliament.

May wanted a mandate. She's received a cross dressing dwarf.
I hate you for making me choke-laugh at that :lol:
this might sound like a stupid question but is that referring to something specific?
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by jwl »

The Romulan Republic wrote: Edit: Incidentally, I did find it quite amusing when I turned on the BBC this morning and, despite having a national election tonight, they were focused entirely on the Comey hearings. :)
That's because the TV journalism is not allowed to talk about British politics during election polling, apart from about the election polling itself. I turned on the news hoping for some politics-free news for once, but it turns out they had decided to talk about American politics instead.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

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May is forming a government with the Unionists.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by Simon_Jester »

jwl wrote:
The Romulan Republic wrote: Edit: Incidentally, I did find it quite amusing when I turned on the BBC this morning and, despite having a national election tonight, they were focused entirely on the Comey hearings. :)
That's because the TV journalism is not allowed to talk about British politics during election polling, apart from about the election polling itself. I turned on the news hoping for some politics-free news for once, but it turns out they had decided to talk about American politics instead.
To be fair, from their point of view that's not politics, it's those wacky foreigners running around in circles...
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by Crazedwraith »

Thanas wrote:May is forming a government with the Unionists.
Sort of. BBC speculating the DUP will provided vote-by-vote support for her minority government. Rather than a full on coalition.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

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Okay, so two things about this result, both amusing bordering on hilarious.

Firstly, all hail Lord Buckethead, one of the "joke" candidates in this campaign. Other candidates include a guy dressed as Elmo and a fish finger.

Secondly, May's majority (with the DUP) is something like 2 or 3 seats. Well, back in April, it was revealed that about 24 sitting Conservative MPs were under investigation for criminal charges. Now, I'm not sure what the rules are or even how many of those ~24 got elected, but all it takes is two or three getting taken down and replaced by Labour/Lib Dem/Green/Monster Raving Loony Party (yes that exists) candidates for May's gamble to turn into a complete and total omnishambles, as opposed to the fuckup it currently is.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

So May is looking to form a coalition with the DUP to form a government.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by Crazedwraith »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote:So May is looking to form a coalition with the DUP to form a government.
Thanas already mentioned. It's still not clear whether it will be an actual formal coalition or a much looser arrangement.

Something vote-by-vote. They could support them for the critical ones they have to pass to remain in power Queen's Speech and budget iirc and leave them swinging in the wind for most policy.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by streetad »

VX-145 wrote:Secondly, May's majority (with the DUP) is something like 2 or 3 seats. Well, back in April, it was revealed that about 24 sitting Conservative MPs were under investigation for criminal charges. Now, I'm not sure what the rules are or even how many of those ~24 got elected, but all it takes is two or three getting taken down and replaced by Labour/Lib Dem/Green/Monster Raving Loony Party (yes that exists) candidates for May's gamble to turn into a complete and total omnishambles, as opposed to the fuckup it currently is.
That has already largely resolved itself with the CPS having dropped the charges against all but one guy. I don't know whether he has a seat or not still.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by VX-145 »

streetad wrote:
VX-145 wrote:Secondly, May's majority (with the DUP) is something like 2 or 3 seats. Well, back in April, it was revealed that about 24 sitting Conservative MPs were under investigation for criminal charges. Now, I'm not sure what the rules are or even how many of those ~24 got elected, but all it takes is two or three getting taken down and replaced by Labour/Lib Dem/Green/Monster Raving Loony Party (yes that exists) candidates for May's gamble to turn into a complete and total omnishambles, as opposed to the fuckup it currently is.
That has already largely resolved itself with the CPS having dropped the charges against all but one guy. I don't know whether he has a seat or not still.
Yeah, I wasn't able to find anything newer than April on that story. Oh well, it was worth the hope.
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Re: Theresa May calls snap General Election for June 8th

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Sadly it looks like derailing car crash Brexit is too much to hope for.
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