General Automation Thread

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bilateralrope
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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by bilateralrope » 2018-08-07 01:27am

Elheru Aran wrote:
2018-08-06 04:32pm
It does make one wonder how the strippers will fare in a cashless society... ;)
I saw the answer to that when I went to a strip club more than 10 years ago. You go to the bar and buy an amount of club-specific notes. You use those notes to tip the strippers.

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by K. A. Pital » 2018-08-07 03:49am

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by houser2112 » 2018-08-07 08:02am

FaxModem1 wrote:
2018-08-06 04:36pm
Elheru Aran wrote:
2018-08-06 04:32pm
It does make one wonder how the strippers will fare in a cashless society... ;)
Maybe tables will have Card readers to tip them at? Like at Chili's.
Will those tables print a receipt for you to slip in the garter? :)

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by FaxModem1 » 2018-08-28 12:44pm

BBC News
Toyota to invest $500m in Uber in driverless car deal
27 August 2018
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Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Japanese carmaker Toyota is to invest $500m (£387m) in Uber and expand a partnership to jointly develop self-driving cars.

The firm said this would involve the "mass-production" of autonomous vehicles that would be deployed on Uber's ride sharing network.

It is being viewed as a way for both firms to catch up with rivals in the competitive driverless car market.

The deal also values Uber at some $72bn, despite its mounting losses.

That is up 15% since its last investment in May but matches a previous valuation in February.

According to a press release issued by the firms, self-driving technology from each company will be integrated into purpose-built Toyota vehicles.

Uber halts self-driving tests after death
Uber settles with Waymo on self-driving
The fleet will be based on Toyota's Sienna Minivan model with pilot trials beginning in 2021.

Shigeki Tomoyama, executive vice president of Toyota Motor Corporation, said: "This agreement and investment marks an important milestone in our transformation to a mobility company as we help provide a path for safe and secure expansion of mobility services like ride-sharing."

Image copyrightUBER
Image caption
Uber technology will be incorporated in Toyota vehicles
Both Toyota and Uber are seen as lagging behind in developing self-driving cars, as firms such as Waymo, owned by Alphabet, steam ahead.

Uber has also scaled back its self-driving trials after a fatal crash in Tempe, Arizona, in March, when a self-driving Uber SUV killed a pedestrian.

Since then, the ride-hailing giant has removed its autonomous cars from the road and closed its Arizona operations.

Analysis: Dave Lee, BBC North America technology reporter, San Francisco
Uber's troubled self-driving car efforts are in need of external help, and this deal with Toyota might provide that expertise. It's of course a terrific opportunity for Toyota, too.

It was reported earlier this month that Uber was sinking around $1m-$2m into its autonomy work every single day. The results of that effort have not been something to be proud of - one fatal crash, one very expensive lawsuit, and not a lot of self-driving compared to the leader in this sector, Waymo.

Sharing the burden, and R&D cost, will delight Uber's investors as it aims for its initial public offering next year.

Meanwhile, shares in Toyota spiked at reports of the deal. Not surprising. Many analysts think personal car ownership will drop dramatically when the self-driving, ride-sharing future is fully upon us - with major companies instead purchasing enormous fleets of vehicles. Toyota, then, may have just secured its biggest ever customer.

The deal extends an existing relationship with Toyota, and furthers Uber's strategy of developing autonomous driving technology through partnerships.

The US firm has also teamed up with Daimler, which hopes to own and operate its own self-driving cars on Uber's network.

On Monday, Uber said it planned to focus more on its electric scooter and bike business in future, and less on cars - despite the fact it could hurt profits.

Revenue from its taxi business is rising but the cost of expansion into new areas such as bike sharing and food delivery has meant losses have grown rapidly.
So, Toyota is starting to fund Uber in it's auto research. Are they buying in on the ground floor, or getting swindled?
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bilateralrope
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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by bilateralrope » 2018-08-28 01:38pm

Uber. The company that decided that their autonomous cars wouldn't be allowed to pull an emergency stop because it would make them look bad with how often their cars wanted to do an emergency stop. Until they killed someone because their car wasn't allowed to make an emergency stop.

Does Toyota have enough understanding of autonomous car technology to make sure Uber doesn't have any other surprises ?
Many analysts think personal car ownership will drop dramatically when the self-driving, ride-sharing future is fully upon us
How did they come to that conclusion ?
The only explanation I've seen is that self-driving cars + a ride sharing app is somehow going to be cheaper than people owning self-driving cars. They then point to Uber, a company that has never made a profit, to prove that ride sharing is cheaper.

No explanation of how the ride sharing vehicle, which will be doing a lot more travelling while empty, has a cheaper cost per mile travelled with a passenger.

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by Stormin » 2018-08-30 07:11pm

bilateralrope wrote:
2018-08-28 01:38pm
The only explanation I've seen is that self-driving cars + a ride sharing app is somehow going to be cheaper than people owning self-driving cars. They then point to Uber, a company that has never made a profit, to prove that ride sharing is cheaper.

No explanation of how the ride sharing vehicle, which will be doing a lot more travelling while empty, has a cheaper cost per mile travelled with a passenger.
It'll be cheaper for any individual user. Daily cost for the vehicle will be spread between dozens of people.

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by bilateralrope » 2018-08-31 12:41am

Stormin wrote:
2018-08-30 07:11pm
bilateralrope wrote:
2018-08-28 01:38pm
The only explanation I've seen is that self-driving cars + a ride sharing app is somehow going to be cheaper than people owning self-driving cars. They then point to Uber, a company that has never made a profit, to prove that ride sharing is cheaper.

No explanation of how the ride sharing vehicle, which will be doing a lot more travelling while empty, has a cheaper cost per mile travelled with a passenger.
It'll be cheaper for any individual user. Daily cost for the vehicle will be spread between dozens of people.
Could I see the math behind that statement ?

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by Stormin » 2018-08-31 02:59am

bilateralrope wrote:
2018-08-31 12:41am
Stormin wrote:
2018-08-30 07:11pm
bilateralrope wrote:
2018-08-28 01:38pm
The only explanation I've seen is that self-driving cars + a ride sharing app is somehow going to be cheaper than people owning self-driving cars. They then point to Uber, a company that has never made a profit, to prove that ride sharing is cheaper.

No explanation of how the ride sharing vehicle, which will be doing a lot more travelling while empty, has a cheaper cost per mile travelled with a passenger.
It'll be cheaper for any individual user. Daily cost for the vehicle will be spread between dozens of people.
Could I see the math behind that statement ?
Owned car = you pay 100% of all costs including maintenance, insurance, depreciation etc

Autocar uber style system = you pay for the time you are using it plus a profit margin. And there won't be a crazy high profit margin because it'll be automated systems almost all the way through, which means competition would have an easy time filling any places where demand is so high that excessive charges are viable.

Edge cases like people who have to spend 6+ hours a day in their vehicles might be different or those who live in their cars but if you are using them to 'disprove' my point you are just REEEing over the tiny minority.

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by Surlethe » 2018-09-01 09:28am

Not only are fixed costs of ownership split over many people, there are broader social benefits too. Most cars nearly all of their time not moving and huge portions of cities are devoted to space for vehicle storage, cf http://oldurbanist.blogspot.com/2011/12 ... -area.html If the number of cars declines due to increased ridesharing, cities will reclaim parking space and reconfigure themselves to be cheaper and denser with concomitant benefits.
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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by bilateralrope » 2018-09-02 12:50am

Stormin wrote:
2018-08-31 02:59am
Owned car = you pay 100% of all costs including maintenance, insurance, depreciation etc
I accept that it's going to come down to how the fixed costs of the car compare with the running costs to decide which is cheaper. Without seeing numbers, I can't be sure which way it will go. Thing is, I've not seen any convincing comparisons. Nothing with any numbers. I've just seen things like:
- Electric cars are simpler than petrol cars (true). Therefore they will depreciate slower (possible). Therefore they will be too expensive to own (?).
- This group of young people are using Uber instead of owning their own cars. Therefore everyone will become just like them given time.
- Pointing to Uber as proof of how low costs could go. That could have been a convincing argument. Except that Uber is a company that has yet to make a profit, despite various illegal ways to reduce costs.
Edge cases like people who have to spend 6+ hours a day in their vehicles might be different or those who live in their cars but if you are using them to 'disprove' my point you are just REEEing over the tiny minority.
Part of the reason for my skepticism is that I've had people seriously claiming that even edge cases, like a plumbers van, will be replaced by rideshare vehicles.

The other part is that everyone is claiming that people will automatically move to the cheaper option. Completely ignoring the convenience factor.
Surlethe wrote:
2018-09-01 09:28am
Not only are fixed costs of ownership split over many people, there are broader social benefits too. Most cars nearly all of their time not moving and huge portions of cities are devoted to space for vehicle storage, cf http://oldurbanist.blogspot.com/2011/12 ... -area.html If the number of cars declines due to increased ridesharing, cities will reclaim parking space and reconfigure themselves to be cheaper and denser with concomitant benefits.
Yes, that's all true if ridesharing takes over. But I don't see how it applies to the argument of if ridesharing will take over.

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Re: General Automation Thread

Post by bilateralrope » 2018-09-03 08:49am

I'll admit that a lot of my skepticism over automated taxis replacing private vehicles comes from bias caused by really crappy arguments being the first I saw about them replacing private vehicles. Not from any serious thought on my part. So I gave it some thought:

By referring to them as ride-sharing, I was buying into the hype. We aren't talking about an Uber-like arrangement where their software gets you a ride in a car that Uber does not own. We are talking about cars owned by the company. So these are automated taxis not a "self-driving, ride-sharing future". As soon as I noticed that error in my thinking, another thing became obvious: Automated taxis are going to require a significant investment to buy enough vehicles to replace private cars.

The other significant thing that came to mind is that rush hour is going to be the major factor in determining if automated taxis replace private vehicles. If automated taxis can handle that, they can handle everything but the edge cases. I'm not sure how automated taxis will handle rush hour without putting a similar number of vehicles on the road as we currently have, which wipes out the economic advantage, but if you can convince me of that then seeing how they replace private vehicles elsewhere becomes trivial.

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