Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby mr friendly guy » 2017-03-13 10:25pm

Thanas wrote:I think Sturgeon committed a grave tactical error which easily leaves her open to personal attacks.

That is, she did not wait for May to completely stumble her way through the brexit talks. So this is not a choice between two clear-cut evils, but a choice between "independence to apply to go into Europe" and "brexit deal". Instead, it is a choice between independence and the murky, nebulous future which might turn out bad, but also turn out rather well for the UK. I think she should have waited to present two clear choices.

Furthermore not waiting leaves her open to the classic attack of "well we don't know what will happen in the brexit negotiations, so why the rush?". It makes her look like she is pursuing a pet project over the interests of the country.

So I do not like the move. I would generally prefer scottish independence if there is a vast majority supporting it but I don't like the timing.

I think tactically she wants to time it such that the Brexit details would have been mostly sorted out but Brexit hasn't happened yet, so May would have her hands full dealing with both Scotland nationalists and the EU. As for the full details of Brexit, we already heard it would be a hard Brexit, so the choice isn't that nebulous any more.

Tactically someone could play up the worse fears of Brexit, which makes it harder for May to negotiate if the EU is feeling vindictive. For example, the SNP could say Brexit would lead to X, which is bad for Scotland. May would then try and negotiate with Europe such that X doesn't happen. However the EU now also knows that X would be bad for the UK and be even more reluctant to grant the UK such concessions. Fun times ahead.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Simon_Jester » 2017-03-13 11:01pm

Eternal_Freedom wrote:I don't think you can say the government turned around and radically altered things, there was a referendum on the subject. So the government (fools though they be) can say they're following the majority vote. There's enough to blame this government for as-is without adding "it's the government's fault we're leaving the EU" as well.

I'm not just talking about the Government, I'm talking about Britain.

The point here is that there is a fundamental difference between voting to remain in a United Kingdom that is part of the European Union, versus voting to remain in one that is not. Given that the Scots voted much more heavily to remain in the EU than they did to remain in the UK as I recall, that difference is going to be heavily on their minds, and it is very much questionable to say "no takebacks, you wanted to stick with us" given that a lot of Scots almost certainly expected Britain to remain in the EU at the time they cast their votes.

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tribble » 2017-03-13 11:55pm

What does Scotland have to offer to the EU, apart from feelings of good will, maintaining the club etc? IIRC they have some oil and some production, but they are pretty small population / territory wise. How much trade is involved with the EU as opposed to the rest of the UK?

And would the EU be willing to accept Scotland? IIRC Spain would oppose such a move as that would fuel the Catalonia independence motives, and that may include other countries as well. There may be other countries as well.

Also, I take it that at least in theory Scotland would have to abandon both the pound and its internal currency and join the Eurozone if they wanted to be a member of the EU. If so, how would that work out for them?
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tribble » 2017-03-13 11:59pm

I just realised that if Scotland left the UK and joined the EU, then England / Wales / Northern Ireland(?) left the EU and were later successful in rejoining, Britain would have at least 2 votes in the EU instead of the 1 it has now. Maybe it's all a nefarious scheme to increase voting power :P
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tsyroc » 2017-03-14 12:13am

Okay, something I don't get. Isn't part of the reason for Brexit because the member nations don't really have a representative say in the EU government, or a way to hold council members accountable for things they do that people don't like?

Scotland's beef with the UK has been getting more local control of what affects them. If they leave the UK and join the EU won't they lose more control over their own sovereignty than they gained?

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby mr friendly guy » 2017-03-14 12:19am

Tribble wrote:What does Scotland have to offer to the EU, apart from feelings of good will, maintaining the club etc? IIRC they have some oil and some production, but they are pretty small population / territory wise. How much trade is involved with the EU as opposed to the rest of the UK?

And would the EU be willing to accept Scotland? IIRC Spain would oppose such a move as that would fuel the Catalonia independence motives, and that may include other countries as well. There may be other countries as well.

Also, I take it that at least in theory Scotland would have to abandon both the pound and its internal currency and join the Eurozone if they wanted to be a member of the EU. If so, how would that work out for them?

Scotlands 2015 GDP (2016 figures aren't formally out yet) is $233 billion USD. That makes it higher than Portugal, Greece, Czech republic, Romania, Hungary, and comparable to Finland. So it certainly can punch above its weight.

Spain would most likely oppose Scotland joining, however assuming the independence vote is successful, then its done. There isn't much to gain from stopping Scotland joining the EU as the metaphorical horse has already bolted.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tribble » 2017-03-14 12:26am

mr friendly guy wrote:Scotlands 2015 GDP (2016 figures aren't formally out yet) is $233 billion USD. That makes it higher than Portugal, Greece, Czech republic, Romania, Hungary, and comparable to Finland. So it certainly can punch above its weight.


It can punch above its weight... as part of the UK. Not so sure if it would be able to maintain that if it left though. Just as the EU doesn't want the UK to benefit from leaving and will take a hard line, the UK government would almost certainly take a hard line against Scotland. Scotland is far more dependant on the rest of the UK for trade than the EU, and leaving could potentially hurt them a lot.

Tsyroc wrote:Okay, something I don't get. Isn't part of the reason for Brexit because the member nations don't really have a representative say in the EU government, or a way to hold council members accountable for things they do that people don't like?


For some Brexit voters, sure.

However, the primary issue was definitely immigration as the majority of leave voters were against "foreigners" (aka Eastern Europeans) coming into their country and "stealing" their jobs, women etc. Bogus of course, but that was the main motivation overall.

Tsyroc wrote:Scotland's beef with the UK has been getting more local control of what affects them. If they leave the UK and join the EU won't they lose more control over their own sovereignty than they gained?


Scotland would still be more independent in the EU than remaining in the UK as the EU does not have the same degree of powers. The EU is not a country (for better or for worse), so its not like becoming another state in the USA. It's quite different.

Maybe Wales should join the leave bandwagon next!
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Zaune » 2017-03-14 12:30pm

Sinn Fein jumps on the bandwagon.

Northern Ireland should hold a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland as “as soon as possible”, Sinn Fein’s new leader has said.

Michelle O’Neill said Brexit would be a “disaster” for the province and that a referendum on Irish unity could be one way of bypassing its effects.

The intervention comes hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for a referendum on Scottish independence – arguing that the Scottish people should be given a choice on Theresa May’s final Brexit deal.

Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the European Union in the referendum last year. The result in Northern Ireland was 56 per cent for Remain compared to 44 per cent for Leave.

The province however faces being dragged out of the EU with the rest of the UK. The effects of Brexit could also be more dramatic on Northern Ireland: Theresa May has not explicitly ruled out a hard border with the Republic under the coming new arrangements, though she has said she does not want one.

“Brexit will be a disaster for the economy, and a disaster for the people of Ireland,” Ms O’Neill told journalists in Belfast on Monday.
Read more

“A referendum on Irish unity has to happen as soon a possible.”
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby The Romulan Republic » 2017-03-14 12:32pm

Congratulations Conservatives: It looks increasingly like you will go down in history as the party who's utter lack of leadership and craven pandering to bigots destroyed your country.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Juubi Karakuchi » 2017-03-14 12:57pm

Zaune wrote:Sinn Fein jumps on the bandwagon.

Northern Ireland should hold a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland as “as soon as possible”, Sinn Fein’s new leader has said.

Michelle O’Neill said Brexit would be a “disaster” for the province and that a referendum on Irish unity could be one way of bypassing its effects.

The intervention comes hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for a referendum on Scottish independence – arguing that the Scottish people should be given a choice on Theresa May’s final Brexit deal.

Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the European Union in the referendum last year. The result in Northern Ireland was 56 per cent for Remain compared to 44 per cent for Leave.

The province however faces being dragged out of the EU with the rest of the UK. The effects of Brexit could also be more dramatic on Northern Ireland: Theresa May has not explicitly ruled out a hard border with the Republic under the coming new arrangements, though she has said she does not want one.

“Brexit will be a disaster for the economy, and a disaster for the people of Ireland,” Ms O’Neill told journalists in Belfast on Monday.
Read more

“A referendum on Irish unity has to happen as soon a possible.”


Not at all surprised by that. Also not entirely surprised that Theresa May has refused.

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Eternal_Freedom » 2017-03-14 01:35pm

Indeed, especially since in their own words they don't mean "NI should leave Britain" but "NI should totally join the Republic of Ireland" which is a whole separate issue and one that IIRC they kinda fought a war about within the last hundred years or so.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby The Romulan Republic » 2017-03-14 01:40pm

So, does this mean we can look forward to another round of Irish terrorism?
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Thanas » 2017-03-14 02:08pm

Eternal_Freedom wrote:Indeed, especially since in their own words they don't mean "NI should leave Britain" but "NI should totally join the Republic of Ireland" which is a whole separate issue and one that IIRC they kinda fought a war about within the last hundred years or so.


Well that is one way to circumvent Brexit I guess.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tribble » 2017-03-14 02:17pm

Thanas wrote:
Eternal_Freedom wrote:Indeed, especially since in their own words they don't mean "NI should leave Britain" but "NI should totally join the Republic of Ireland" which is a whole separate issue and one that IIRC they kinda fought a war about within the last hundred years or so.


Well that is one way to circumvent Brexit I guess.


Why bother holding another referendum? It's non-binding anyways, right? The Scottish assembly could just pass an act declaring Scotland's independence and see what Parliament does about it. If Parliament refuses that would just add more ammo for independence, so its a win-win for Scottish Leave voters.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Vendetta » 2017-03-14 02:23pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:So, does this mean we can look forward to another round of Irish terrorism?


One of the fundamentals of the Northern Ireland peace process is an open border with the Republic.

Which is part of Europe.

One of the fundamentals of Brexit appears to be not to have those, so that foreigners can't come and tek er jerbs.

Also the previous power sharing agreement is in the shitter due to the DUP's financial mismanagement of the RHI scheme. It was supposed to be a subsidy to install renewable source heaters like solar thermal systems, but the incentive payments were ridiculously out of proportion with the costs involved so when people caught on they rinsed the government for about half a billion quid. The DUP (whose idea this was) tried to cover it all up, but didn't do a particularly good job so it caused basically a collapse of the Stormont government as Sinn Fein walked out.

So, Interesting Times.


A second Scottish independence referendum was inevitable in the face of Westminster's abject refusal to treat any other party in any potential brexit negotiators as having equal status, and especially not Scotland. Every time the SNP raised anything they wanted for Scotland they were told to piss off, so this was basically bound to happen.

This is also why the scale of the upcoming Brexit fuckup is greater than you can imagine, because the British government are fucking deluded about what they're possibly going to get out of anyone involved.

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Juubi Karakuchi » 2017-03-14 07:53pm

Tribble wrote:
Thanas wrote:
Eternal_Freedom wrote:Indeed, especially since in their own words they don't mean "NI should leave Britain" but "NI should totally join the Republic of Ireland" which is a whole separate issue and one that IIRC they kinda fought a war about within the last hundred years or so.


Well that is one way to circumvent Brexit I guess.


Why bother holding another referendum? It's non-binding anyways, right? The Scottish assembly could just pass an act declaring Scotland's independence and see what Parliament does about it. If Parliament refuses that would just add more ammo for independence, so its a win-win for Scottish Leave voters.


Unilateral secession is always a possibility, albeit still a distant one. If May is stupid enough to refuse outright, then as you say that will only strengthen Sturgeon's position. Ironically, it may be what she's hoping for; as it would be the perfect excuse to skip a still-risky referendum and just secede.

The question would be whether to do it now, or wait a couple of years for the economy to go belly-up (as we're seeing early signs of already, with the pound crashing again). On the one hand, waiting for things to get worse would strengthen the pro-Independence vote, and make ordinary Scots more likely to support unilateral secession. On the other hand, leaving it too long risks making Sturgeon look weak, indecisive, or opportunistic. Having thrown down the gauntlet, what excuse can she offer for waiting? The best I can think of is for her to start some suitably long-winded negotiations with the EU; which she can spin as gathering international support.

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Zaune » 2017-03-16 10:26am

Indy

Theresa May has moved to block a new Scottish independence referendum by saying "now is not the time" for another vote.

The Prime Minister said a repeat of the 2014 referendum was not appropriate because the country was already going through a huge change in terms of Brexit, and that Scottish people needed a fuller picture before taking any decision on the future.

But her move to block another vote for now creates an intense political stand-off with SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, who will next week ask Scottish MSPs to approve her plans for a second referendum.

Relations between the two are strained with Ms Sturgeon taking a swipe at the Prime Minister earlier this week, pointing out that Ms May has not been voted in at a general election.

Ms May told ITV News: "My message is very clear. Now is not the time. I've explained the reasons why.

"We should be working to get the right deal for Scotland and the UK with our future partnership with the European Union.

"It would be unfair to the people of Scotland at the moment that they would be being asked to make a crucial decision without the information they need to make that decision."

The Prime Minister's words do not completely rule out allowing a second referendum at some point in the future, but the clear intention to deny a referendum in the immediate future will provoke the SNP.


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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Thanas » 2017-03-16 11:04am

So in other words, she chose to take the easy way out based on the argument that nobody apparently knows what Brexit will mean.

Well, I can't say I agree with that based on what the EU has so far said on the negotiations it is quite clear how the possible outcomes will look. And every single one of those would probably legitimze another referendum.

But like I said earlier Sturgeon left herself open to precisely this kind of attack on her position.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Vendetta » 2017-03-16 12:00pm

Thanas wrote:So in other words, she chose to take the easy way out based on the argument that nobody apparently knows what Brexit will mean.


No-one can criticise your plan if you don't have one, after all.

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tribble » 2017-03-16 12:08pm

Thanas wrote:So in other words, she chose to take the easy way out based on the argument that nobody apparently knows what Brexit will mean.

Well, I can't say I agree with that based on what the EU has so far said on the negotiations it is quite clear how the possible outcomes will look. And every single one of those would probably legitimze another referendum.

But like I said earlier Sturgeon left herself open to precisely this kind of attack on her position.


Well May just delayed the inevitable as a 2nd Scottish referendum is guaranteed at this point. And by delaying it odds will be higher that Scotland will vote to leave, assuming that only 50% + 1 is required.

Speaking of which, if there is another Scottish referendum what should the leave vote require? 2/3, because it would change the status quo for Scotland in an even bigger way than Brexit?
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Thanas » 2017-03-16 12:12pm

As apparently the British government views 50% +1 vote as totally ok and binding for breaking away from the European Union it would hardly be fair if they would refuse the same method to Scotland for breaking away from their own union.

But my personal feelings and beliefs about this have been stated in the past, I don't think such important votes should require anything less than a 2/3rds majority.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Tribble » 2017-03-16 12:15pm

Thanas wrote:As apparently the British government views 50% +1 vote as totally ok and binding for breaking away from the European Union it would hardly be fair if they would refuse the same method to Scotland for breaking away from their own union.

But my personal feelings and beliefs about this have been stated in the past, I don't think such important votes should require anything less than a 2/3rds majority.


I agree (though I'll extend that into important votes such as joining the EU of course). Hmmmm, it's probably going to be a 50% +1 though, that seems to be the thing in Commonwealth referendums unless the government really doesn't want something.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby AMX » 2017-03-16 01:30pm

Thanas wrote:But like I said earlier Sturgeon left herself open to precisely this kind of attack on her position.

Did she actually have the option to wait, though?

If the goal is to remain in the EU, Scottish Independence has to happen before (or possibly in the process of) Brexit - if they are still part of the UK at that point, they're out and have to re-join.
And they'll need time to negotiate that with the EU, as well... actually, handling that as part of the Brexit negotiations looks like the only chance to me; otherwise Spain would throw a fit over the precedent that'd set for the Basques. :?

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Thanas » 2017-03-16 01:43pm

They have to rejoin the EU anyway, breakaway regions are not considered to automatically remain part of the EU according to the overwhelming legal opinion (and the opinion of the EU commission).
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Is Go

Postby Civil War Man » 2017-03-16 01:47pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:So, does this mean we can look forward to another round of Irish terrorism?


Never say never, but when I was in County Tyrone about 10 years back, there was a general sense that no one wanted a return of the Troubles. That time was really bad for everyone. I doubt it will come to that again unless London really fucks NI sideways.

That said, I have mentioned before that the idea of a unified Ireland would be quite satisfying to the part of me descended from Irish rebels, especially if it can be done without firing a shot. Tiocfaidh ár lá.


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