Thanas wrote:I think Sturgeon committed a grave tactical error which easily leaves her open to personal attacks.
That is, she did not wait for May to completely stumble her way through the brexit talks. So this is not a choice between two clear-cut evils, but a choice between "independence to apply to go into Europe" and "brexit deal". Instead, it is a choice between independence and the murky, nebulous future which might turn out bad, but also turn out rather well for the UK. I think she should have waited to present two clear choices.
Furthermore not waiting leaves her open to the classic attack of "well we don't know what will happen in the brexit negotiations, so why the rush?". It makes her look like she is pursuing a pet project over the interests of the country.
So I do not like the move. I would generally prefer scottish independence if there is a vast majority supporting it but I don't like the timing.
I think tactically she wants to time it such that the Brexit details would have been mostly sorted out but Brexit hasn't happened yet, so May would have her hands full dealing with both Scotland nationalists and the EU. As for the full details of Brexit, we already heard it would be a hard Brexit, so the choice isn't that nebulous any more.
Tactically someone could play up the worse fears of Brexit, which makes it harder for May to negotiate if the EU is feeling vindictive. For example, the SNP could say Brexit would lead to X, which is bad for Scotland. May would then try and negotiate with Europe such that X doesn't happen. However the EU now also knows that X would be bad for the UK and be even more reluctant to grant the UK such concessions. Fun times ahead.