Labour Loses One By-Election, Wins Other. Sky falling

[Crazedwraith]

Tories in historic by-election Copeland win as Labour holds Stoke
The Conservatives have won the Copeland by-election, beating Labour in an area it represented for more than 80 years.

Trudy Harrison won with 13,748 votes to Labour's Gillian Troughton's 11,601.
Mrs Harrison hailed the victory - the first by-election gain by a governing party since 1982 - as "a truly historic event".
Labour's Gareth Snell held Stoke-on-Trent Central with 7,853 votes, seeing off a challenge from UKIP leader Paul Nuttall who got 5,233.
Labour had held both seats since their creation but was forced to defend them when two former frontbenchers, Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed, resigned as MPs.
Copeland, created in 1983, and its predecessor constituency Whitehaven have returned Labour MPs since 1935.
Mrs Harrison, who had been joined by Prime Minister Theresa May on the campaign trail, got 44.3% of the vote, increasing the Conservatives' vote share by more than 8%. She overturned a Labour majority of more than 2,564 to take the seat by 2,147 votes - a swing of more than 6%.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the Copeland result was the best by-election performance by a governing party in terms of the increase in its share of the vote since January 1966.
In her victory speech, Mrs Harrison said: "It's been very clear talking to people throughout this campaign that [Labour leader] Jeremy Corbyn doesn't represent them.

Further Anaysis at the link. But yeah bad for Labour and renewed problems for Corbyn. At least they beat UKIP's guys.

[Hillary]

Tories in historic by-election Copeland win as Labour holds Stoke
The Conservatives have won the Copeland by-election, beating Labour in an area it represented for more than 80 years.

Trudy Harrison won with 13,748 votes to Labour's Gillian Troughton's 11,601.
Mrs Harrison hailed the victory - the first by-election gain by a governing party since 1982 - as "a truly historic event".
Labour's Gareth Snell held Stoke-on-Trent Central with 7,853 votes, seeing off a challenge from UKIP leader Paul Nuttall who got 5,233.
Labour had held both seats since their creation but was forced to defend them when two former frontbenchers, Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed, resigned as MPs.
Copeland, created in 1983, and its predecessor constituency Whitehaven have returned Labour MPs since 1935.
Mrs Harrison, who had been joined by Prime Minister Theresa May on the campaign trail, got 44.3% of the vote, increasing the Conservatives' vote share by more than 8%. She overturned a Labour majority of more than 2,564 to take the seat by 2,147 votes - a swing of more than 6%.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the Copeland result was the best by-election performance by a governing party in terms of the increase in its share of the vote since January 1966.
In her victory speech, Mrs Harrison said: "It's been very clear talking to people throughout this campaign that [Labour leader] Jeremy Corbyn doesn't represent them.

Further Anaysis at the link. But yeah bad for Labour and renewed problems for Corbyn. At least they beat UKIP's guys.

The turnout in Stoke was 36.7% which is appalling (was 51% in Copeland) - so even though Labour won, it's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Also, the guy was up against Paul Nuttall; a man who has just had to admit that his claims of losing close friends at Hillsborough were untrue. Also the biggest funder of UKIP recently Tweeted that he was "sick to death" of hearing about Hillsborough. Two senior figures in UKIP resigned over it on Monday this week. If Labour couldn't beat UKIP under these circumstances it would have been extraordinary.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ontroversy

Admittedly, this by-election was not in Liverpool but Stoke is a city with a big football culture and there's little doubt that this would have hurt the UKIP vote. Had Farage been leader and stood in this election, Labour would surely have lost.

I'm waiting to see how the Corbyn fanboys spin this one.

[Crazedwraith]

I'm waiting to see how the Corbyn fanboys spin this one.

I do feel rather sorry for Corbyn. I applaud the fact he want's to provide a really alternative with Labour to the Torys. He's rather got the odds stack against him considering Labour votes love him and Labour MPs hate him. It sticks in my craw when Labour MPs call for unity at the same time as trying to oust him because if they cared about unity they'd get behind him.

On the other hand, I can't pretend that's the cause of all Corbyn's problems becases he's just not that great a leader.

[Thanas]

In classic Corbyn fashion he will probably support the conservative candidate and then tweet that the real election begins now after the election has been lost already.

[jwl]

Copeland is rather historic in being the only government-gain by-election since 1982, and that was a by-election triggered by someone defecting to the SDP and wanting to get re-elected as a mandate. Before then was 1961 where tony benn won the election but was disqualified because he inherited a lordship, making him ineligible. The last time it happened under more conventional circumstances was in 1960. So this by election loss was a big deal.

Having said that, the most likely reason for the by-election loss was that in copeland Jeremy Corbyn was perceived as being anti-nuclear due to comments he made in the past and, since Copeland has sellafield in it, that rubbed off badly on the MP candidate by association. However, more recent comments look like Corbyn has changed his mind on this, so this probably won't be a problem in 2020.

[streetad]

I'm waiting to see how the Corbyn fanboys spin this one.

I do feel rather sorry for Corbyn. I applaud the fact he want's to provide a really alternative with Labour to the Torys. He's rather got the odds stack against him considering Labour votes love him and Labour MPs hate him. It sticks in my craw when Labour MPs call for unity at the same time as trying to oust him because if they cared about unity they'd get behind him.

On the other hand, I can't pretend that's the cause of all Corbyn's problems becases he's just not that great a leader.

There's really very little evidence to suggest traditional Labour voters love him - his personal polling is terrible.

He appeals to a certain demographic who have joined the Labour party en-masse specifically because of him - but more Labour members doesn't necessarily mean more Labour voters as they are a self-selecting subset of the population as a whole.

The only sliver of comfort for Labour is that UKIP seem to have blown the best chance they will get here. There was a real opportunity to occupy that populist, nationalist ground that tends to appeal to traditional working class Labour voters, in the same way that the SNP have done in Scotland. The voters that don't like Corbyn because he is a priveleged metropolitan intellectual, not 'one of us', who has 'never done a day's work in his life'.

UKIP don't appear to be able to find the polished leadership or ruthless internal party discipline that the SNP have developed ovèr the years, nor the ability to say suitably leftish-sounding things when it suits them - so Labour might be let off the hook to an extent.

[Hillary]

I'm waiting to see how the Corbyn fanboys spin this one.

I do feel rather sorry for Corbyn. I applaud the fact he want's to provide a really alternative with Labour to the Torys. He's rather got the odds stack against him considering Labour votes love him and Labour MPs hate him. It sticks in my craw when Labour MPs call for unity at the same time as trying to oust him because if they cared about unity they'd get behind him.

On the other hand, I can't pretend that's the cause of all Corbyn's problems becases he's just not that great a leader.

There's really very little evidence to suggest traditional Labour voters love him - his personal polling is terrible.

He appeals to a certain demographic who have joined the Labour party en-masse specifically because of him - but more Labour members doesn't necessarily mean more Labour voters as they are a self-selecting subset of the population as a whole.

^^This. There's a lot of talk about how Corbyn is overwhelmingly popular amongst Labour members - this may be true (although support is waning), but in terms of actual numbers it's small beer compared to number of votes they'll need to win in an election. Total membership was 540,000 in 2016 - which is a lot by comparison with other parties, but is a small percentage of the UK electorate, most of whom don't join political parties even if they traditionally vote for a certain party.

313,000 people voted for Corbyn to be leader - Labour will need well over 10,000,000 votes in 2020 to win an election. It is not going to happen with him as leader.

[Crazedwraith]

Yes, I misstated. The people who vote in Labour Leadership elections think he's the best one to represent them. Maybe less now, maybe not. IIRC when challenged he was sent back with an increased majority.

But I certainly didn't mean with the electorate as whole. Or Labour voters in areas like Copeland apparently.

[Hillary]

His percentage of the vote went up slightly in the 2016 vote, from 59.5% to 61.8%.

However, in the 2015 vote there was a choice of 4 candidates, so you'd expect the vote to be more evenly spread.

Also, the number of people who voted in the 2016 vote increased by nearly 20%, due to a similar increase in the membership. It's well-documented that much of this increase was due to Corbyn supporters registering to participate in the 2016 vote. On that basis, it seems likely that his votes from existing members, as opposed to new members, actually decreased in 2016.

The anecdotal evidence I have is that this was definitely the case - several of my friends who voted Corbyn in 2015 either didn't vote or voted for Owen Smith in 2016, whereas none of my friends switched TO Corbyn in 2016. Not only that, some of them who voted twice for Corbyn now want him to go (mostly due to his performance on the Article 50 vote). I appreciate this is not scientific, however.

[Crazedwraith]

McDonnel goes full conspiracy theorist.

John McDonnell says 'soft coup' launched against Corbyn

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell says "a soft coup" has been launched against Jeremy Corbyn by "elements in the Labour Party".

Mr McDonnell accuses unnamed "plotters" and the "Murdoch media empire" of a "coordinated and fully resourced" coup.

In an article for Labour Briefing, he said "the plotters" were using "an exceptionally well resourced dark arts operation" to "destroy Jeremy Corbyn".

One former Labour minister described Mr McDonnell's comments as "unhinged".

In his article, Mr McDonnell accuses "the coup perpetrators" of "a covert strategy" to destabilise Mr Corbyn because they had failed to dislodge him directly through a leadership election.

He said their tactics included "daily and constant behind-the-scenes non-attributable briefings against Jeremy".

It is understood the article by Mr McDonnell was written before Labour's Copeland by-election loss but posted on the Labour Briefing website on Sunday night.

'Scale of task'

A spokesman for Mr McDonnell said: "This article was written over a week ago in response to the intervention from Tony Blair.

"It was published in print last week and only went online last night.

"However, as John said yesterday, he wants us all to focus on party unity following last week's by-election results.

"And he is looking to reach out in the coming days to those across all sections of the party and none."

Mr Corbyn, from the left of the party, was the overwhelming winner of Labour's leadership election in 2015, despite having the support of only a small number of the party's MPs.

A challenge to him last year led to another vote of all Labour Party members and affiliated supporters, which he again won overwhelmingly.

But many of the party's MPs have continued to be unhappy with his leadership, and the party trails the Conservatives in opinion polls

Labour MPs vent anger

BBC political correspondent Iain Watson

At Monday night's Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) meeting, some MPs criticised Jeremy Corbyn's non-attendance, with one telling the BBC they would raise the Copeland defeat each week until the leader addressed it.

A party spokesman said Mr Corbyn had given his apologies for being unable to make the meeting and didn't attend every time.

Andrew Gwynne - the joint elections co-ordinator (with Ian Lavery) - oversaw the Copeland campaign and was supportively shouted down by MPs when he suggested taking responsibility for the defeat himself.

He was applauded for praising local activists and the neighbouring MP John Woodcock - a long-standing opponent of Jeremy Corbyn - for their efforts in the campaign.

He also said he looked forward to working with the PLP on the forthcoming local elections - the main issues would be health, housing and jobs.

Sources at the meeting suggested one of the more amusing questions came from former shadow transport secretary Lilian Greenwood, who read out a long list of reasons given over the weekend by party spokespeople for the loss of Copeland, and which hadn't included the party leadership.

She then asked: "Have I left anything off that list?"

Some MPs were critical of shadow attorney general Baroness Chakrabarti, who had outlined some of those reasons on television over the weekend but who hadn't attended the PLP.

A picture of her drinking with shadow home secretary Diane Abbott in the nearby Pugin room while the meeting was taking place had been tweeted and was raised by MP Neil Coyle. One MP told reporters: "Shami had a lot to say at the weekend. It's a shame she had nothing to say at the meeting."


On Sunday, Mr Corbyn said Labour's by-election loss showed "the scale of how hard our task is to persuade people of our message".

In a speech, he urged his party to "remain united" and not to "give up".

Labour lost the seat of Copeland, in Cumbria, to the Conservatives last week - the first by-election gain by a governing party in 35 years.

However, Labour managed to hold off a challenge from UKIP in a by-election, in Stoke-on-Trent Central, on Thursday.

Questioned about his future after the speech, Mr Corbyn said: "I'm carrying on as leader because I'm determined that we will deliver social justice in this country."

Asked if he would still be in place in 2020, when the next general election is expected to take place, he replied: "I've given you a very, very clear answer - yes."

I have sort of an in-built reaction to scoff at people who say 'the media is biased against me' but have noticed they are very harsh to Corbyn, don't know if they actually more critical against or whether it's deserved or if it's just some kind of perception bias on my part.

[Minischoles]

McDonnel goes full conspiracy theorist.

I have sort of an in-built reaction to scoff at people who say 'the media is biased against me' but have noticed they are very harsh to Corbyn, don't know if they actually more critical against or whether it's deserved or if it's just some kind of perception bias on my part.

To be fair, there was a study done by the LSE that found 75% of stories about Corbyn in the media either distorted what he had said or didn't even represent his actual views on the subject - it isn't exactly new to Corbyn either, the media attacked Milliband just as viciously.

Who remembers the stupid story the Sun read about how Milliband ate a bacon sandwich?

Peter Mandelson has openly admitted that when it comes to Corbyn he is using all his influence and connections to undermine him, Blair has crawled out to attack him and his own party have been plotting against him since the start.

Having said that, the most likely reason for the by-election loss was that in copeland Jeremy Corbyn was perceived as being anti-nuclear due to comments he made in the past and, since Copeland has sellafield in it, that rubbed off badly on the MP candidate by association. However, more recent comments look like Corbyn has changed his mind on this, so this probably won't be a problem in 2020.

He's never been against nuclear power (or I haven't been able to dig up any quotes) but he was very non-committal - his only true opposition has been to nuclear power, but in typical fashion the two were conflated as being one and the same.

That and he campaigned on the NHS and people pretty much don't seem to give a toss that the Tories are undermining the system and closing hospitals; he's trying to use that as the main factor against them and evidently it's not working, as May only gets ever more popular.

[jwl]

McDonnel goes full conspiracy theorist.

I have sort of an in-built reaction to scoff at people who say 'the media is biased against me' but have noticed they are very harsh to Corbyn, don't know if they actually more critical against or whether it's deserved or if it's just some kind of perception bias on my part.

To be fair, there was a study done by the LSE that found 75% of stories about Corbyn in the media either distorted what he had said or didn't even represent his actual views on the subject - it isn't exactly new to Corbyn either, the media attacked Milliband just as viciously.

Who remembers the stupid story the Sun read about how Milliband ate a bacon sandwich?

Peter Mandelson has openly admitted that when it comes to Corbyn he is using all his influence and connections to undermine him, Blair has crawled out to attack him and his own party have been plotting against him since the start.

Having said that, the most likely reason for the by-election loss was that in copeland Jeremy Corbyn was perceived as being anti-nuclear due to comments he made in the past and, since Copeland has sellafield in it, that rubbed off badly on the MP candidate by association. However, more recent comments look like Corbyn has changed his mind on this, so this probably won't be a problem in 2020.

He's never been against nuclear power (or I haven't been able to dig up any quotes) but he was very non-committal - his only true opposition has been to nuclear power, but in typical fashion the two were conflated as being one and the same.

That and he campaigned on the NHS and people pretty much don't seem to give a toss that the Tories are undermining the system and closing hospitals; he's trying to use that as the main factor against them and evidently it's not working, as May only gets ever more popular.

No, he was anti-nuclear in the past. Source: http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_c ... build.html
He seems to have changed his mind now though.