Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby streetad » 2017-04-02 06:04pm

Zaune wrote:At this point, I think Scottish independence is damn near inevitable. The only question is whether it can be achieved without bloodshed.


As someone living in Scotland I have to say this is ludicrous. Outside the more unsavoury elements that nationalist movements tend to attract around the fringes I can't say i've met anyone that cares enough about their democratically elected officials sitting a couple of hundred miles closer to their house that they would want to shed blood over it.

With regards to another referendum there's not really any evidence that support for independence has budged an inch since the Brexit vote. One problem that Sturgeon has is that nationalists tend to be, well, nationalistic, and support for the EU is not actually all that strong amongst the SNP core voters she would need on side to ever hope to win any future referendum. She needs Brexit to justify a new referendum, but has to play it very coy about whether an independent Scotland would actually even apply for EU membership - which makes her come off as an opportunist. Hence all the polls demonstrating she hasn't persuaded anywhere near a majority of Scots that we should actually even have another referendum at the moment.

If they had any sense they would wait a few years until Brexit has started to bite before even suggesting another referendum. I suspect they are eager to get it done before the next Scottish elections as, due to various problems they have been kicking into the long grass domestically, they are by no means assured of a pro-independence majority in Holyrood after this point.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby jwl » 2017-04-05 02:27pm

Who even cares about Gibraltar? We could give it to Spain if it allows us to get better deals with the EU and pay the residents off so they don't moan about it, it's not as if Gibraltar is economically important or anything.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Tribble » 2017-04-05 04:53pm

jwl wrote:Who even cares about Gibraltar? We could give it to Spain if it allows us to get better deals with the EU and pay the residents off so they don't moan about it, it's not as if Gibraltar is economically important or anything.


IIRC GDP-per-capita wise Gibraltar is actually doing quite well for itself. It's certainly pulling its weight a lot more than parts of the UK like Wales.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby streetad » 2017-04-05 05:04pm

Tribble wrote:
jwl wrote:Who even cares about Gibraltar? We could give it to Spain if it allows us to get better deals with the EU and pay the residents off so they don't moan about it, it's not as if Gibraltar is economically important or anything.


IIRC GDP-per-capita wise Gibraltar is actually doing quite well for itself. It's certainly pulling its weight a lot more than parts of the UK like Wales.


Well Gibraltar's prosperity largely rests on it's unique consitutional situation (eg the ability to set it's own tax/finance/gambling regulations). Quite apart from issues of national identity, they would require a very large amount of 'buying off'....

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Thanas » 2017-04-05 05:32pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gotiations

Speaking after the vote, Verhofstadt added: “It is fairly clear what the message is: we ask [the European commission] to be very firm towards the UK authorities because we cannot accept that the status outside the union is more favourable than membership of the EU. On the other hand, we are very generous, open, positive to UK citizens.”


As expected, the UK will get treated worse after leaving.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby mr friendly guy » 2017-04-06 07:55am

The EU are also opposing parallel negotiations, that is allowing the UK to negotiate a trade deal at the same time negotiating its exit. Funnily enough this was one of the arguments by the Brexiters that by the time it took the UK to negotiate the exit, they would have also negotiated most or all of the trade agreement. This will of course minimise the effect on the UK economy. Apparently the EU doesn't want to dance to the Brexiter's tune, funny that.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby EnterpriseSovereign » 2017-04-06 04:14pm

What's going to be hilarious is if any trade deal with the EU requires freedom of movement for workers since that was what the entire leave campaign was based on :lol:
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Tribble » 2017-04-06 04:22pm

EnterpriseSovereign wrote:What's going to be hilarious is if any trade deal with the EU requires freedom of movement for workers since that was what the entire leave campaign was based on :lol:


That's exactly what the EU is requiring IIRC. And apparently the UK handing over Gibraltar. As I said before I wouldn't be surprised if the EU flat out refused anything short of full EEA / EU membership, with the requirement that if the UK rejoins it must now join the Eurozone.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby The Romulan Republic » 2017-04-07 12:23am

Not sure what the point of demanding Gibraltar is. Just to say "fuck you" to Britain? Its not like they'll actually hand it over, and I'm going to presume the EU isn't prepared to actually go to war with Britain over it. Nor do the people of Gibraltar want it, evidently.

I mean, fuck the British government, by all means, but this just seems kind of stupid.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby NecronLord » 2017-04-07 07:10am

It strengthens a Spanish negotiating position for allowing Scotland into the EU.

Spain can say that it is committed to Spanish territorial integrity to its own nationalists and remain opposed to its own separatists, by saying that it is supporting Scottish independence because the UK will not restore Gibraltar to its rightful owners, while it remains totally opposed to separatism in other cases.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby jwl » 2017-04-07 03:51pm

Tribble wrote:
jwl wrote:Who even cares about Gibraltar? We could give it to Spain if it allows us to get better deals with the EU and pay the residents off so they don't moan about it, it's not as if Gibraltar is economically important or anything.


IIRC GDP-per-capita wise Gibraltar is actually doing quite well for itself. It's certainly pulling its weight a lot more than parts of the UK like Wales.

Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Bedlam » 2017-04-07 05:25pm

jwl wrote:Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.



That might be true from a purely logical stance only looking at money. However, any government giving up part of it's territory is a significant knock to it's reputation and likely it's standing with it's own population which can be worth much more.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Tribble » 2017-04-07 05:32pm

Bedlam wrote:
jwl wrote:Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.



That might be true from a purely logical stance only looking at money. However, any government giving up part of it's territory is a significant knock to it's reputation and likely it's standing with it's own population which can be worth much more.


Mind you this is the UK... I'm sure plenty of people in England would be perfectly happy to have less territory to deal with. Might as well toss Scotland (English and Scots hate each other enough already) Northern Ireland ('cause fighting over it again isn't worth it) and Wales (useless) too while they're at it.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Vendetta » 2017-04-07 06:18pm

jwl wrote:Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.


I'm fairly sure if a Tory government ceded territory that Britain stole fair and square they'd be swinging from lampposts before the day is out.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby madd0ct0r » 2017-04-08 06:45am

Vendetta wrote:
jwl wrote:Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.


I'm fairly sure if a Tory government ceded territory that Britain stole fair and square they'd be swinging from lampposts before the day is out.


That's the reason the press has played it up so much. Gives people a reason to get all patriotic and support may and 'fuck europe' and 'lets strengthen the power of the media barons'
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby The Romulan Republic » 2017-04-08 06:51am

Bedlam wrote:
jwl wrote:Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.



That might be true from a purely logical stance only looking at money. However, any government giving up part of it's territory is a significant knock to it's reputation and likely it's standing with it's own population which can be worth much more.


Especially, I'd think, when the people who live their don't want to leave the country. Its basically saying to their citizenry "your government will sell you out to a foreign country for financial gain".
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby K. A. Pital » 2017-04-08 07:09am

Europe just needs to blockade the territory like non-EU countries of Northern Africa to prove a point to Britain. It's no longer a matter of money or pragmatism. Those who leave, must and will be punished. It's the way of the Empire, regardless of whether that capitalistic Empire dresses its ambition in liberal guise or openly forces others to obey. That thinking permeates the upper class, it is incurable, a cancer.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Tribble » 2017-04-08 10:32am

Vendetta wrote:I'm fairly sure if a Tory government ceded territory that Britain stole fair and square they'd be swinging from lampposts before the day is out.


Well if we are going to go that route Spain needs to be broken up too - they stole their lands from the Moors, you see. Who stole it from the Visigoths. Who stole it from the Romans. Who stole it from Carthage. So clearly if Gibraltar goes to Spain, Spain must go to Tunisia, it's only fair :lol:
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Scottish Ninja » 2017-04-08 07:03pm

No no no, you've got to go back one more step - before Carthage much of the people were Celtic - which means that Spain should go, after all, to Scotland(!)
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby jwl » 2017-04-12 04:03am

Bedlam wrote:
jwl wrote:Yeah but Gibraltar is tiny. Any amount of extra trade we can get in exchange for dropping it would be worth the miniscule amount it gives to the treasury.



That might be true from a purely logical stance only looking at money. However, any government giving up part of it's territory is a significant knock to it's reputation and likely it's standing with it's own population which can be worth much more.

I would not be surprised if over half the population have never heard of Gibraltar (or even know we still have an empire), so I don't think people will be that bothered if we give it up.

If Spain goes to Scotland doesn't that rather defy the point of brexit?

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Tribble » 2017-04-12 10:56am

jwl wrote:I would not be surprised if over half the population have never heard of Gibraltar


Even if that was true prior to Brexit (IMO you're probably exaggerating quite a bit), that's certainly not the case now given Spain's open demands and insistence on making it front and centre in the Brexit negotiations.

jwl wrote: or even know we still have an empire),


Given that the term "Empire" usually has a very negative connotation these days, I am going to assume you are against Gibraltar remaining a British Overseas Territory even had Spain not asked for its return. If so would you care to explain why, especially given that the overwhelming majority of the population want to remain?


jwl wrote: so I don't think people will be that bothered if we give it up.


Yaaa, I highly doubt that. People tend to get very possessive over territory, even if its not in their immediate vicinity. And even if they never visited it and have no idea of its history. Maybe if negotiations were done discreetly and the population of Gibraltar was Pro-Spain they could have transitioned Gibraltar over to Spanish control. As it is, Spain is very deliberately making it front and centre of the Brexit negotiations and the population of Gibraltar are overwhelmingly against the move. If Spain was hoping to actually get possession of Gibraltar (rather than just being a negotiation tactic) they just guaranteed it won't happen.


jwl wrote:If Spain goes to Scotland doesn't that rather defy the point of brexit?


It sure does. Which is the whole point - Spanish claims to Gibraltar are silly; for over 300 years it's been British, the population views itself as British and have they zero desire even allow Spanish joint custody, let alone join it outright. The idea that "since Britain conquered Gibraltar over 300 years ago, therefore Spain deserves it back" is frankly absurd, given that modern Spain's territory largely came about from conquering people (namely the Moors). Who of course conquered it from other people, and so on and so forth. Out of anyone it should be the local population that gets to decide.
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Thanas » 2017-04-12 11:27am

Scottish Ninja wrote:No no no, you've got to go back one more step - before Carthage much of the people were Celtic - which means that Spain should go, after all, to Scotland(!)


And we should all go back to Rome.....

(I would be okay with that).
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Tribble » 2017-04-12 11:39am

Thanas wrote:
Scottish Ninja wrote:No no no, you've got to go back one more step - before Carthage much of the people were Celtic - which means that Spain should go, after all, to Scotland(!)


And we should all go back to Rome.....

(I would be okay with that).


Isn't it legend that the Romans were founded by the surviving Trojans? All of you should go back to Troy.

*checks map* oh wait, maybe that isn't such a good idea atm :P
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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby jwl » 2017-04-12 01:47pm

Tribble wrote:
jwl wrote: or even know we still have an empire),


Given that the term "Empire" usually has a very negative connotation these days, I am going to assume you are against Gibraltar remaining a British Overseas Territory even had Spain not asked for its return. If so would you care to explain why, especially given that the overwhelming majority of the population want to remain?

No, not really. I just think the "British Overseas Territory" is a stupid name, and Empire sounds way better. The British Overseas Territories is the British Empire, just renamed.

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Re: Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May

Postby Simon_Jester » 2017-04-12 09:59pm

jwl wrote:No, not really. I just think the "British Overseas Territory" is a stupid name, and Empire sounds way better. The British Overseas Territories is the British Empire, just renamed.
The thing is, the Overseas Territories consist almost entirely of puny little islands whose populations are more or less exclusively of British descent, or Anglicized to the point of being indistinguishable from the British. They're residual territories from the time of the Empire, sure. But the very reason that unlike virtually the entire rest of the Empire they never declared independence is because they were unlike the Empire.

It's sort of like how Spain lost huge territorial holdings in South and Central America, the Caribbean, and the Philippines... but never really had any trouble holding onto the Canary Islands. There's a qualitative difference between the Canaries and those other colonial holdings. Saying that Spain has an 'empire' consisting of the Canaries redefines the word 'empire' so far that it becomes a meaningless phrase.

Likewise, an 'empire' whose territories consist of a list like "Malta, Gibraltar, the Falklands..." is so unlike historical empires that using the same word for it devalues the word.

Thanas wrote:
Scottish Ninja wrote:No no no, you've got to go back one more step - before Carthage much of the people were Celtic - which means that Spain should go, after all, to Scotland(!)
And we should all go back to Rome.....

(I would be okay with that).
You're just saying that because you'd be a valuable translator for the dominant government to the barbarian languages, as opposed to being one of the random enslaved guys. :P


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