Uk Referendum on The EU Announced for 23rd June.

[jwl]

I have heard quite a few people (young adult to middle aged working males) speaking forcefully about leaving the EU on commuter trains into/out of London, generally to the agreement of their friends and onlookers. I haven't heard anyone arguing to remain. Annecdotal as that is, it surprises me because London is supposed to be multicultural, multinatinal, financialised and more likely to vote to stay. But if so that doesn't seem to include working people commuting in from suburbs.

That's because nobody is particularly passionate about remaining. It's the status quo, so what?

[Tribble]

IMO the U.K. is going to remain in the EU even if a majority of voters vote to leave. I just can't see the government actually carrying through with a withdrawal, there will be far to much pressure to remain. In the unlikely event that a majority vote to leave, they will probably try to stall for as long as possible by dragging out the withdrawal negotiations for the full time allowed, asking for extensions, new commissions etc etc until the referendum fades into the sunset. And if there is an election in the meantime, the new government would not be obligated to follow the results anyways. Or if the can was kicked down the road and enough time has passed one could make the argument that the results are no longer valid in any event because the situation has changed. Or that they need a "clear mandate," and do to having too few voters and a vote too close to call, the status quo should prevail etc etc.

[Thanas]

Such a strategy might result in a UKIP premiership.

[Zaune]

Such a strategy might result in a UKIP premiership.

If that happens the whole question's going to be academic, because they've made noises about abolishing the Scottish Parliament entirely. If they make a serious attempt at following through on that Scotland is very unlikely to take it lying down, and then UKIP will have all the excuses they need to go full Norsefire.

[Vendetta]

Such a strategy might result in a UKIP premiership.

Very unlikely.

More likely it would be a tory rebellion to replace the PM with a eurosceptic who would go through with it.

[Tribble]

Such a strategy might result in a UKIP premiership.

Very unlikely.

More likely it would be a tory rebellion to replace the PM with a eurosceptic who would go through with it.

Would they retain enough seats to pass an act of parliament though? IIRC all the other parties apart from UKIP are in the remain camp, and if there is a significant Tory split I doubt they'll have the numbers to maintain a majority government. Unless there is a majority government which actually wants to follow through will leaving, it's easy enough to stall things ad nausuem. IMO a "leave" vote can be safely ignored (or rather sent to committee) unless there is a very significant voter turnout and there is a clear majority (like 55%+) who voted to leave, which I very much doubt would happen.

[The Xeelee]

UKIP would see an absolutely massive surge in votes if that happened. The conservatives would essentially die as a party.

[Dartzap]

Also ignoring a national referendum would see the Cabinet Secretary sent to the Supreme Court faster than you can say "will of the people". Won't happen. I know everything else is fecking topsy-turvy, but that's the one thing that'll be certain.

[jwl]

Actually, parliament is well within their rights to void a referendum after it has been passed. It isn't realistically going to happen though.

[Vendetta]

Would they retain enough seats to pass an act of parliament though? IIRC all the other parties apart from UKIP are in the remain camp, and if there is a significant Tory split I doubt they'll have the numbers to maintain a majority government. Unless there is a majority government which actually wants to follow through will leaving, it's easy enough to stall things ad nausuem. IMO a "leave" vote can be safely ignored (or rather sent to committee) unless there is a very significant voter turnout and there is a clear majority (like 55%+) who voted to leave, which I very much doubt would happen.

There are enough eurosceptics on the left and not-committed-eurosceptic tories who would vote "with the will of the people" that they'd be able to pass a bill through the commons.

Cameron would have to raise the bill or he'd have Boris' knife in his back before a week was out as well.

[Zaune]

Just for a change of pace, here's something to be patriotic about. I got my polling card in the post today, and so did my brother... who is currently living in Pennsylvania.

Say what you like about the electoral system in this country, we definitely have our shit together as far as running the actual vote goes.

[Tribble]

Just for a change of pace, here's something to be patriotic about. I got my polling card in the post today, and so did my brother... who is currently living in Pennsylvania.

Say what you like about the electoral system in this country, we definitely have our shit together as far as running the actual vote goes.

Do you mean Pennsylvania, Exeter or Pennsylvania, South Gloucestershire?

[Zaune]

Neither. I mean Pennsylvania as in the US state.

[Tribble]

Well congratulations to you and your brother, though I feel that belongs more in the "US election thread" than the "UK referendum" thread.

[Zaune]

I did think about it, but that would have come off as needlessly smug.

[Zaune]

"BBC Newsnight just reported that Vote Leave plans to abandon the economic argument and concentrate on immigration for the rest of the campaign"

Well, at least we're getting to the heart of the matter now.

[madd0ct0r]

Ive been seeing "79 million turks" in facebook comments for a while now.

[Thanas]

Where will those people magically come from? Erdogan's mating with donkeys again?

[Crazedwraith]

Ive been seeing "79 million turks" in facebook comments for a while now.

what literally everyone in Turkey wants to come to the UK?

[madd0ct0r]

apparently

[LaCroix]

Ive been seeing "79 million turks" in facebook comments for a while now.

what literally everyone in Turkey wants to come to the UK?

And 5 million more...

I guess they use "Turks" as in ye olde way - everyone muslim.

[mr friendly guy]

What does Edrogan expect the Turks given visa free travel to do in Europe? Does he think all of them will get jobs and send remittances back to Turkey?

What does the Brexit supporters think the Turks will do in the UK? Sponge off welfare? Can someone more knowledgeable explain?

[Dartzap]

If the Turks are able to enter freely, then an attack by Shrodinger's Immigrant is inevitable.

The power of someone who is both comin' over 'ere and stealin' our job's and inexplicably also coming over 'ere and being a layabout in a free house stealin' our benefits money is impossible to resist.

[madd0ct0r]

Plus they are brown and muslim and thus a threat to our teaditional british values.

I should note that schrodribgers immigrabt does exist though. The majority of families recieving benefits in the uk are employed, just in jobs that pay so badly they are eligable anyway. Uk goverment supported corporate welfare or vital social stability subsidies, take your pick.

[jwl]

What does Edrogan expect the Turks given visa free travel to do in Europe? Does he think all of them will get jobs and send remittances back to Turkey?

What does the Brexit supporters think the Turks will do in the UK? Sponge off welfare? Can someone more knowledgeable explain?

The argument that these Brexiters are putting forward is that David Cameron wants Turkey to join the EU (which is, on the surface at least, true, because of Turkey's NATO membership), and as soon as Turkey joins, this gives the danger of them all moving to Britain under freedom of movement. The easiest way Cameron would mitigate against this is to ditch his support for Turkey getting EU membership, but unfortunately he hasn't done that.