HIV not transmitted to the child? Excuse me, that's about HIV positive parent to HIV-negative child. Right now, the problem is from HIV-negative parent to HIV-POSITIVE child, the other way round. So where did the virus come from? The best explanation is simply that the test/s are faulty, either in failing to detect the HIV seropositivity of the parent, or that of the child.
Garh - Sorry! There's an easy explanation for that, too - And it's a nasty one, at that. Asymptomatic carriers still capable of infecting fetuses through the womb. (First guess based on available information; I'm no virologist and I'd need to do some research to confirm or disprove that theory. Perhaps Phong could add something there.)
But you're still right in that no matter what the cause, the demographics of the African countries have been badly cored out. I think many of the basic services are headed for crisis levels.
Labor intensive sectors, like agriculture, might be about to collapse.
The Nice Guy
That's exactly the point. But more than just agricultural - It's the vital sectors. The people with money are fleeing. Lots of doctors and nurses
in the UK are from - Africa. You know why? They don't want to treat a constant stream of AIDS patients with poor quality equipment and low safety standards - They'll eventually get infected. There goes African healthcare down to even worse levels. The same for other vital sectors, which are being hit hard - Traditionally, wealthier classes have had the luxury of being promiscuous in societies like that of Africa, and for a patchwork system like that of modern Africa, that includes the technical people.
As they either flee or get hit with AIDS, that collapses the modern infrastructure. Well, guess what - Africa is partially industrialized. It can't support as many people as it has now with only primitive agriculture alone. It needs at least the rudiments of modern society, and it's losing those. As the levels of AIDS reach a sufficient population cut to affect agricultural productivity from a manpower standpoint as well, you're going to see serious consequences.
At the very least it will be an imitation of the Black Death; that is to say, a third of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is going to die. I don't see any other way to cut it. It will be worse than that, however, I think. As HIV takes down the populations, it will be combined with not only these famines, but with a greater spread of traditional diseases from the breakdown in infrastructure - And war over dwindling resources. It could be very bad.
That's what I meant by a "hollow shell" - The population growth is still occuring, but it's totally unsupported by anything to make it keep growing. House built on shifting sands and all that.