The coming Russian war

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

Post Reply
User avatar
cosmicalstorm
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1642
Joined: 2008-02-14 09:35am

The coming Russian war

Post by cosmicalstorm » 2015-03-26 01:53am

Here is a pretty brief summary of the coming WW3-ish events that will unfold soon if Russia decides to test NATO's will-power. The TL:DR version: Russia tests NATO by taking the Balt-states. To do so effectively it takes Gotland from Sweden. Russia might use a nuclear weapon to make Poland back away.

Sweden has no defense these days, we spent those money on other things, so we will likely lose Gotland and get our airfields and military bases on the mainland bombed pretty good. Russia does stage attack trainings of Gotland on a monthly basis.

Anyway, how plausible is this scenario? Should Poland be working on nuclear weapons?

It has been a long time since a big war touched Europe, it seems about time now :(
Over the past 12 months Russia’s air force has flown a series of aggressive combat patrols over the Baltic Sea, including mock nuclear strikes against Sweden’s capital Stockholm, in order to assess the reaction time and preparedness of Sweden’s air force. Since October 2014, Russia’s Navy has sent submarines into Swedish territorial waters to gauge the capabilities and test the preparedness of Sweden’s Navy. The conclusion: Sweden is defenseless.

Last week Russia’s air force progressed from testing Sweden’s military preparedness to dry runs for a major air assault. A combination of transport planes and fighter jets flew from Russia over the entire Baltic Sea to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. While Sweden didn’t even manage to get a plane in the air, Italian air force jets flying out from Šiauliai air base in Lithuania intercepted and identified the Russian jets. The Italian fighters were outnumbered 4 to 1.

The obvious targets of Russian aggression along the Baltic Sea, namely Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all share a land border with Russia, therefore there is no need for Russia to mount a large scale air assault when attacking these tiny states. However, once occupied, Putin must keep the US air force and the US Navy out of the Baltic Sea, if he wants to keep the three Baltic states occupied and oppressed. This is why Russia is preparing to assault, occupy and fortify Sweden’s Gotland Island.

If Russia were to take Gotland and base S-300 or S-400 long range air-defense and K-300P Bastion-P long range anti-ship missile systems on the island, then US air force planes would not be able reach the Baltic States and US Navy ships could not pass the Danish Straits to enter the Baltic Sea. Russia already has S-300 and K-300P, alongside tactical nuclear 9K720 Iskander missiles, stationed in Kaliningrad, but as Poland’s military could destroy Russia’s anti-ship and air-defense systems there, Russia must occupy Gotland a few hours before an attack on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania begins. And this is how Russia intends to win this war:

Putin orders Russia’s military to perform another round of large scale maneuvers. NATO as usual monitors these maneuvers, but refrains from taking any proactive, such as raising its own state of readiness to avoid “provoking Russia”. Just as in earlier maneuvers the three Ropucha-class landing ships of the Baltic Fleet leave Kronstadt harbor to train “shipping vehicles and material to Kaliningrad”. During the night, when the people of Gotland are in bed, Special Forces from Russia’s 561st Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group, dropped off earlier by Russian submarines, attack all communications nodes on the island to sever mobile phone, internet and telephone connections with mainland Sweden, to not only prevent the Swedish government from being alerted, but also to prevent civilians from uploading images and videos of the coming brutal occupation of the island.

With all key installations diligently mapped in advance by Russian spies disguised as tourists the men of the 561st Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group set out to prepare the landing zones for the paratroopers of the Russian Airborne Forces. Meanwhile the Ropucha-class ships leave their course towards Kaliningrad and now head straight for Northern Gotland. A task force consisting of Russian air force transport planes and fighter jets carrying a regiment of paratroopers enters the Northern Baltic Sea and is picked up by Estonian radar operators, which alert NATO’s air policing units at Šiauliai. Two fighter jets are immediately scrambled to intercept the Russian air group, whose size is unknown as Russian radar jamming planes accompany it.

After 15 minutes the NATO planes reach the Russian air group over the Northern Baltic Sea and report its astonishing size back to base. As the two NATO fighters are forbidden to interfere unless the Russians enter NATO airspace, they only observe. At this moment the Russians are only 150km from Gotland, 12 minutes from dropping at least a thousand paratroopers.

By now Russian Special Forces have taken control of Gotland’s airport at Visby: air traffic controllers have been eliminated, communications with Sweden severed and the runway illuminated. As everywhere on Gotland the Russians face no resistance as Sweden has zero active troops on Gotland. Not a single active unit is based on the island: no air defense, no land defense, no naval defense, nothing to at all to stop the Russians. Except for a few armed policemen, no one is on duty during the night. The local Swedish Home Guard unit, the 32nd Gotland Battalion, consisting of about 300 volunteers, isn’t combat ready, as its members are in bed with their weapons stored at the battalion’s base, which Russian Spetsnaz have already taken over.

Back in Sweden the air force finally realizes that the Russian air group is heading for Gotland, but as it is a weekend the Swedish air force does not have fighters on Quick Reaction Alert and as the closest air base is 250km away it is already too late. Russian paratroopers are dropped over key locations, while heavy transport planes carrying S-300 and K-300P batteries land at Visby airport. Within minutes Gotland is in Russian hands. At a beach in Gotland’s North near Fårösund the Ropuchas unload main battle tanks and BTR-82AM wheeled infantry fighting vehicles of the 61st Marine Brigade. Civilian ferries enter Gotland’s harbors and unload additional reinforcements.

As Russian troops round up all people on Gotland considered to be a risk to Russia’s occupation, the Swedish cabinet meets in Stockholm. Russia’s ambassador informs the Swedish government that Russia has taken “temporarily” possession of Gotland to protect Russian speakers in the Baltic States from “fascist NATO aggression”. Sweden is told to acquiesce to the fait accompli.

Now the Swedish government discovers that it has no possibility to resist, as 25 years of destroying its own armed forces have left Sweden defenseless: the Swedish Navy s surface combatants all lack a close-in weapon system (CIWS) capable of destroying incoming anti-ship missiles and there are just nine of them, which will be sunk either by Russian anti-ship missiles fired from Gotland, underwater mines dropped by Russian submarines just outside Swedish naval bases, or Russian submarines lurking outside those very same bases. Sweden’s excellent submarines can’t leave harbor because of the mines and even if they could would make just easy prey for the lurking Russian submarines. As Sweden sold its anti-submarine helicopters its navy is thus completely stuck in its bases with no chance to take to the sea. Swedish air force fighter jets can’t take to the air, as both main bases in Southern Sweden lie within reach of the S-300 batteries on Gotland. And if Sweden decided to mount a serious amphibious landing on Gotland by sending all its 100+ Stridsbåt90 fast assault boats, each carrying 18 troops, Sweden would need days to assemble this force, days during which Russian transport planes could fly a full Russian airborne division with its armored vehicles, tanks and artillery to Gotland.

But events on Gotland are just a minor blip on this day, as at sunbreak Russian troops have already crossed the borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to “free the people” of these three nations from their “fascist governments”. NATO’s Šiauliai air base is flattened within minutes by Russian OTR-21 Tochka missiles fired from Kaliningrad and the few NATO planes taking to the skies are quickly shot down by Russia’s S-300 batteries in Kaliningrad, thus giving Russia air supremacy over the Baltic States and sea.

Russian armored columns cut through the three nations with ease, as their militaries are small and have neither tanks nor air-defense systems nor attack helicopters. By Noon NATO ambassadors finally meet in Brussels. The ambassadors of the three Baltic States declare that their nations are under attack and request the activation of article 5. Poland, the UK, Denmark, Norway, Canada, France, the US and a few others agree and want to give NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe free reign to beat back the Russians and liberate the Baltic States. But Turkey, Greece, Germany and a few others refuse. Especially Germany is most likely to stall, referencing the “need to talk”, the necessity “not to provoke Russia”, the need to give Putin an “off ramp” among other bullcrap. Ultimately Germany might block a decision by stating it must first consult its parliament about invoking article 5.

If this happens then the United States, United Kingdom, Poland, France, Norway, Denmark and Norway will act on their own. Polish fighter jets take to the skies, Danish, British, French jets follow, but Germany could refuse NATO allies the use of its airspace and go so far as to block US jets from leaving American air bases in Germany. Thus leaving Poland to go in first and go in alone. As the ordered American AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles have not yet been delivered, Polish fighters must enter the S-300 system’s range over Kaliningrad and attempt to take them out with shorter range AGM-154 JSOWs. A costly endeavor for Poland’s small air force, even though the Polish Army’s 11th Artillery Regiment continuously shells known Russian air-defense positions in Kaliningrad with its WR-40 Langusta multiple rocket launchers.

By evening Russian forces patrol the three Baltic nation’s capitals and begin rounding up everyone considered hostile to Russia. Communications with the rest of the world are cut and “popular committees” have “suddenly” sprung up to thank Russia “for its timely salvation from NATO fascism”. Russian TV shows “thankful Baltic citizens”, already known to all from their previous appearances as “thankful Donbas citizens”, who recount the “horrors they suffered from the fascist Baltic-NATO hordes”. Meanwhile, Baltic military and government officials, who had access to top secret NATO information, are flown to Moscow to be interrogated and tortured by the GRU.

All night long Allied air forces try to break through to the Baltic States and even though S-300 and other air defense systems in Kaliningrad have been greatly reduced, the ones on Gotland continue to shoot down allied planes. The United States begins an airlift of combat forces to Poland and hundreds of fighter jets and transport planes cross the Atlantic. Dozens of heavy Bombers land on English bases and are readied for strikes. The allies ask Sweden for permission to strike Russian position on Gotland. The US even offers to send the II Marine Expeditionary Force to retake Gotland for Sweden, but Russia’s ambassador to Sweden announces that if Sweden were to let allied forces cross its territory Sweden would become a target for nuclear strikes. The same warning is given by Russian ambassadors to other European nations, especially to Denmark and Poland: if Denmark allows a US maritime task force passage through the Danish straits, said task force would be hit by a nuclear strike just off the coast of Copenhagen, incinerating the city along with the US ships; and if Poland were to allow the US to assemble armored divisions on its territory Russia would strike these staging areas with nuclear armed Iskander missiles fired from Kaliningrad.

By the next morning Poland’s air force is badly decimated, while its 16th Mechanized Division is engaged in heavy combat with Russian forces along Kaliningrad’s border. The first reinforcement from Poland’s 11th Armored Cavalry Division and 12th Mechanized Division arrive, but Russian forces arrive at the front in even greater numbers while Russian artillery shells Polish forces from Belarusian territory, preventing Poland from returning fire. Likewise, Russian fighter planes use Belarusian air bases to refuel and rearm, but cross into Polish airspace via Lithuanian airspace preventing Poland from attacking the bases in “neutral” Belarus.

Meanwhile, in the forests of the Baltic States, Russian Special Forces are executing thousands of people to eliminate all possible resistance before it can sprout. High profile politicians are spared (for now) and parliamentarians are threatened with execution if they do not assemble to vote for a new pro-Russian government. By Noon all three Baltic nations have new pro-Russian governments made up of Quislings and other collaborationist scum, which have all been recruited in advance by Russian intelligence agencies.

The next day Germany’s press is full of Russia’s bought sellouts and useful idiots warning that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes. The same happens in Sweden, where hundreds of Russian spies and bought traitors demand that Sweden remain neutral and allow Russia “temporary” possession of Gotland; “Resistance is futile” they say. Meanwhile the three Baltic ambassadors to NATO call for an urgent meeting at which they announce that their nations withdraw the motion to invoke article 5. Even though all NATO ambassadors present know that the three Baltic ambassadors are acting under Russian threats to execute their captured families, Germany, besides Turkey and Greece the nation most likely to go full treacherous, demands that all sides cease combat operations immediately. The US and its valiant allies refuse to abandon the Baltics and thus NATO is destroyed.

By nightfall of the second day Russia has occupied and fortified Gotland, occupied Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and destroyed, via its European proxies, NATO. Putin’s main war goal has thus been achieved: NATO is no more. Now Russia must secure its conquests: Sweden, emasculated by having no armed forces, with 57,000 citizens taken hostage on Gotland, and undermined by a plethora of Russian spies, ultimately surrenders to Russian demands and allows Russia to occupy Gotland while denying allied forces to strike Russian positions there, thus closing the Danish Straits for good.

With the allies unable to ship reinforcement to Poland and with Germany closing its territory for allied flights and transports, the only nation Russia must knock out to win this war is Poland. As Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US military, even more so if NATO would have stuck together, and as Russia cannot hope to blackmail nuclear powers like France, the UK and the US, Russia’s military doctrine demands to threaten non-nuclear nations with nuclear strikes and thus prevent them from resisting Russian aggression. The word Russia uses for such strikes is “de-escalation”. That’s Russian thinking: we de-escalate by nuking a city and killing 100,000 people. I kid you not. Russia’s official policy is to nuke nations that resist, which in Russia’s insane, brutal view is a “de-escalation”.

Therefore, on the morning of the third day Russia issues a warning to Poland to cease fire, stating correctly that Russian forces have not entered Polish territory and therefore Poland should stand down and not risk having one or more of its cities struck by a nuclear bomb for helping nations like Estonia, which have “greeted Russian forces as liberators”. But Poland, brave Poland, keeps fighting as more and more US troops arrive. And so on the afternoon of the third day Russia fires an Iskander missile at a Polish city. Łódź being the most likely target: far enough away from Russia and Germany to reduce the effects of nuclear fallout on these two indirectly allied nations and with enough population to kill 100,000 civilians with ease.

The world is in shock. Poland demands its allies retaliate by nuking a Russian city, but France, the UK and the US refuse. Nuking a Russian city would inevitably lead to a Russian counterstrike and thus nuclear Armageddon. Poland is abandoned. Poland thus must ceases fire and under tears subjugate to Russian demands of a demilitarized zone and elimination of its armored and air forces.

With NATO broken, the EU breaking apart, and nations bordering Russia cowing in fear, Putin will force Finland, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Poland and others to join his Eurasian Economic Union, which is nothing but an euphemism for becoming colonies of the Kremlin once more. Having been betrayed by its former allies and unable to stomach nuclear war, the US will retreat from Europe and fade. While fascist movements, looking to Russia as new leader of the continent, will rise in Europe and voluntarily join their nations to Putin’s Reich.

And exactly this last paragraph is what Putin dreams about. This is his deepest wish. So he will wage this war. He planned to wage it later, around 2020 when the decade long rearmament of Russia’s military will be complete, but events in Ukraine forced him to act earlier. Many people believe this to be fantasy… you wish! Russia ordered Mistral ships from France for the explicit purpose to attack Gotland and Crimea. Right now Russia is deploying the forces it needs for this war to Kaliningrad. Russia is doing dry runs for this war every week. Russia is getting ready.

But Europe isn’t. Sweden plans to send 150 troops to Gotland sometime in the future… 150 men- a company, unlike during the Cold War when an entire armored brigade of 5000 men was garrisoned on Gotland. NATO did not forward deploy ground forces to the Baltic Nations, as I demanded over a year ago (!). Germany keeps blocking all sensible NATO preparations and even cut its defense spending in 2014 and in 2015. Merkel and Steinmeier, not content with having actively helped Putin dismember Ukraine, now forcefully push for NATO to be unprepared, by vetoing even planning for key operations in case Russia gears up to attack; like planning for NATO to occupy Gotland at the first whiff of Russian stirred hybrid war in the Baltic States.

Instead of arming Ukraine and thus forcing Russia to deploy large amounts of its troops there, Germany and other EU nations even block attempts by Ukraine to buy weapons, thus allowing Putin to keep 90% of his army free for a strike against the Baltic States. And when that strike comes, Germany is the most likely candidate to balk and wiggle out of its NATO commitments, because for Germans Eastern Europeans are still Untermenschen, as was evidenced by Germany’s nasty, arrogant and disgusting scolding of Poland, when Poland warned that Russia only built the North Stream gas pipeline to bypass Eastern European nations and thus allow it to blackmail and threaten them with its gas-weapon.

No German politician has admitted that the Poles were right then and that they are right again. Germans just don’t do excuses to Eastern Europeans, whose nations Germans devastated twice during the last century. Now Germans will devastate Eastern Europe a third time, by refusing to let NATO plan and prepare for the coming war. This war could still be prevented, but the costs have risen exponentially since last spring when much stronger sanctions and a forceful military demonstration would have still gotten through to Putin before he completely went into his alternate universe, as even Merkel had to admit. But even now Merkel and Germany are completely obsessed with the Greek debt crisis, a minor trifle, which, to Putin’s endless joy, distracts the entire German elite from Russia’s war preparations.

War is coming. It has been clear to the few true Russia experts since February 19th 2014, when Putin’s aide Vladislav Surkov arrived in Kyiv to coordinate the bloody attack on Euromaidan that left nearly 100 people dead the very next day. Nobody listened then, and now a further 6000 people are dead. Will somebody listen now? Certainly not in Germany, but here is what must be done, to make the above scenario unfeasible bloody for Putin’s generals:

Sweden must fortify Gotland, and if it can’t, then NATO must take it at the first whiff of Russian aggression. Better even if Sweden and Finland join NATO this minute, but Germany might block this idea, to “not provoke Putin”, just as it did block the deployment of strong deterrent forces to the Baltic States. Plans to ensure the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can be evacuated in case of Russian attacks need to be set in motion. If you wonder why they have been stalled so far, ask Merkel. Plans to update NATO’s nuclear weapons doctrine to warn Russia a nuclear strike against a NATO city would be retaliated with a similar strike against a similar Russian city need to be unblocked. If you wonder who blocked them, ask Merkel. Why have plans to preposition material and war stocks in Poland and the Baltics gone nowhere… well, she can give you the answer to that too. Suggestions to exclude defense spending from the German imposed 3% budget deficit limit in the EU – blocked by, yes, you know already who.

Under Merkel, Germany has become the undisputed leader among European nations, but unlikely earlier German governments, who used their power to promote peace in Europe by literally buying it with German Marks, Merkel’s government abuses its leading position to block others from doing the right thing. While Helmut Kohl’s government armed Croatia under attack by Serbia, Merkel blocks others from delivering weapons to Ukraine. While Helmut Kohl’s government actively supported Poland’s bid to become a NATO and EU member, Merkel obstructs the same for Ukraine and other nations. While Helmut Kohl’s government generously provided money to poor European nations to reduce the risk of them becoming failed states, Merkel is actively turning Greece into a failed state. The list goes on, but the gist is clear: Merkel does nothing to unite Europe, nothing to prepare Europe, nothing to strengthen Europe.

With allies like this my suggestion is that Poland speedily develops its own nuclear weapons, because the only known unknowns now are, which NATO members, besides Germany, will wiggle out of their commitment to common defense, and what scenario Russia will use to stir up trouble in the Baltic nations, which will then “force Putin” to deploy the Russian Armed Forces “to restore peace and order” and to beat back the “fascist Nazi hordes oppressing Russian speakers in the Baltic nations”. You still don’t believe me? Major European armies, when not preparing for intervention in Libya, are war gaming the above scenario, and even bleaker scenarios. All three Baltic nations are adding military capabilities as fast as they can to avoid being overrun before American reinforcements can arrive; and if you think there are no plans on Putin’s and Breedlove’s desk about occupying Gotland, then you don’t know war. And if there are still doubts in your mind, watch Russian TV for a day, where Putin’s propaganda for this war is already in full swing.

Enjoy your life while you can, and curse the moral cowards, who brought us to this
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/03/22/g ... -our-time/

User avatar
Iroscato
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2348
Joined: 2011-02-07 03:04pm
Location: Great Britain (It's great, honestly!)

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Iroscato » 2015-03-26 02:13am

You're a fucking moron.
Yeah, I've always taken the subtext of the Birther movement to be, "The rules don't count here! This is different! HE'S BLACK! BLACK, I SAY! ARE YOU ALL BLIND!?

- Raw Shark

Destiny and fate are for those too weak to forge their own futures. Where we are 'supposed' to be is irrelevent.

- SirNitram (RIP)

User avatar
The Duchess of Zeon
Gözde
Posts: 14566
Joined: 2002-09-18 01:06am
Location: Exiled in the Pale of Settlement.

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by The Duchess of Zeon » 2015-03-26 02:33am

The level of hysteria has reached 9000! ZOMG!

JOSEF STALIN didn't start WWIII when he had the bomb and I'm supposed to take this ukrop garbage seriously? God yes, let's do a paratrooper invasion of a NEUTRAL country and then set up Poland the bomb to intimidate the west! What the hell is this? Larry Bond night at Euromaidan?

I take that back, none of Larry Bond's plots are this bad.
The threshold for inclusion in Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth. -- Wikipedia's No Original Research policy page.

In 1966 the Soviets find something on the dark side of the Moon. In 2104 they come back. -- Red Banner / White Star, a nBSG continuation story. Updated to Chapter 4.0 -- 14 January 2013.

User avatar
Joun_Lord
Jedi Master
Posts: 1211
Joined: 2014-09-27 01:40am
Location: West by Golly Virginia

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Joun_Lord » 2015-03-26 02:53am

Not buying any of this for a minute. Russia might have problems but I doubt they would invade any territory outside of former Soviet holdings and even then they mostly use proxies or deniable irregular forces and don't seem to take whole countries.

Though where the hell is this idea that Germany would fight tooth and nail to prevent any defense from attack? I know Germany probably doesn't want a war (who does beyond moron war hawks who probably won't be anywhere near the fighting) but I somehow doubt they would block any attempts to strike at Lootin Pootin should he make such an aggressive and stupid move as described in this scenario. Using Germany's want to block weapons shipments from going to Ukraine (a war essentially already lost and unsalvageable and pretty stupid to further inflame) as evidence of their unwillingness to fight is equally stupid.

Just because Germany doesn't want to fight doesn't mean they wouldn't should shit hit the fan and they certainly seem to be no fans of the Russians. They, being fairly sensible people except when it comes to their love affair with David Hasselhoff and therefore realize that there is a bigass angry bear nearby that could fuck their shit up, know going to war with Russia should be something we don't jump into headfirst.

User avatar
phred
Jedi Knight
Posts: 978
Joined: 2006-03-25 04:33am

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by phred » 2015-03-26 03:06am

Didn't someone post this already? I remember something just as ridiculous posted sometime last year I want to say.

It's ok. If Russia starts a war, we can just send some of Dale Brown's super B-52s in to nuke them.
Yo mama so classless, she's a Marxist utopia - Proof that not all general chat is totally devoid of intelligence.

It's so bad it wraps back around to awesome then back to bad again, then back to halfway between awesome and bad. Like if ed wood directed a godzilla movie - Duckie

User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29168
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Vympel » 2015-03-26 03:44am

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:The level of hysteria has reached 9000! ZOMG!

JOSEF STALIN didn't start WWIII when he had the bomb and I'm supposed to take this ukrop garbage seriously? God yes, let's do a paratrooper invasion of a NEUTRAL country and then set up Poland the bomb to intimidate the west! What the hell is this? Larry Bond night at Euromaidan?

I take that back, none of Larry Bond's plots are this bad.
Ah yes, 'Euromaidanpress' - aka the press bullhorn of fanatical Ukrainian nationalists. Delusional drivel like this is their stock in trade. Just despair at the fact that they're funded by the US, I shit you not.

Want another sample of their output?

America's tax dollars hard at work:
About the Source

Radio Liberty

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) is a broadcaster funded by the U.S. government that provides "news, information, and analysis" to countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East "where the free flow of information is either banned by government authorities or not fully developed."
Behold - Radio Liberty funded analysis!
Kuban, Stavropol krays, Rostov, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Volgograd oblasts are ethnic Ukrainian territories. They were populated by Ukrainians mostly (the lands of eastern Slobozhanshchina, Starobudshchina, Malynoviy and Zhovty klyn). It is logical that Ukraine may claim them.

...

To my mind, the world tendencies include the combination of new technologies with exploration and understanding of history, both global and that of individual people and human communities. The return to our roots, the renewal of respective regard towards nature, the immersion into our spiritual world and the search for internal harmony is the only salvation the global consumerist and hypocritical world has from self-destruction. The Ukrainian people may play a significant part in world transformations.

New poles:

...

Europe. Kyiv. For some this might be too ambitious, for other – impossible, however, together with Ukraine’s including into the EU, Europe will become subjective and become an independent player on the international arena. Under the influence of the Ukrainian nation, the Europeans will begin to awaken and remember their values, for which Ukrainians are currently sacrificing their lives. European states will be pushed towards new development and will be able to overcome the internal crisis. The EU will later include the countries which will emerge on the territory of Russia’s European part, as well as Moldova, Turkey, Israel, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus and Mediterranean countries.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/

User avatar
cosmicalstorm
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1642
Joined: 2008-02-14 09:35am

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by cosmicalstorm » 2015-03-26 04:36am

I know those people are biased against Russia pretty heavily so take it with a shaker of salt. Anyway, I live in Sweden and I must admit that I pretty much expect Gotland to be taken from Sweden at any time.

I hope I'm wrong of course!

If that happens I will happily necro this thread :D

User avatar
Lord Revan
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 11397
Joined: 2004-05-20 02:23pm
Location: Zone:classified

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Lord Revan » 2015-03-26 06:52am

There's probably still more russian troops stationed at the finnish border then Finland has soldiers in the full war time deployment, but Finland has not been invaded by russian(well technically soviet) troops since mid 1940s

we got to remember that while Putin is ambitious he's not totally stupid so I seriously dout any sources that say war with russia will happen soon.
I may be an idiot, but I'm a tolerated idiot
"I think you completely missed the point of sigs. They're supposed to be completely homegrown in the fertile hydroponics lab of your mind, dried in your closet, rolled, and smoked...
Oh wait, that's marijuana..."Einhander Sn0m4n

User avatar
Thanas
Magister
Magister
Posts: 30779
Joined: 2004-06-26 07:49pm

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Thanas » 2015-03-26 07:35am

Chimaera wrote:You're a fucking moron.
Seconded. This is bullshit of the highest level.

Putin is a fascist dictator, not a suicidal maniac.
Whoever says "education does not matter" can try ignorance
------------
A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
------------
My LPs

User avatar
Borgholio
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 6286
Joined: 2010-09-03 09:31pm
Location: Southern California

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Borgholio » 2015-03-26 08:35am

Russia might use a nuclear weapon to make Poland back away.
Lost it right there.
You will be assimilated...bunghole!

Patroklos
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2525
Joined: 2009-04-14 11:00am

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Patroklos » 2015-03-26 09:49am

Gotland? First of all why would anyone care about Gotland, and how the hell would holding it have any effect on their ability to take the Baltic states one way or the other. Leaving aside the fact that Russia has little ability to operate inside European airspace if the West has even a few hours to prepare let alone gain air superiority and also has zero ability to operate inside the Baltic to any meaningful degree regarding getting forces to Gotland in the first place, it would be trivially easy (relative to the rest of the events) for Sweden by itself to reinforce or otherwise dislodge invaders from nearby and protected shore. Sweden's is renowned worldwide for its littoral navy which is perfectly suited for this (and preventing an invasion in the first place).

Seriously, GOTLAND? Russia just started WWIII and people think they are worried about Gotland?

User avatar
mr friendly guy
The Doctor
Posts: 11235
Joined: 2004-12-12 10:55pm
Location: In a 1960s police telephone box somewhere in Australia

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by mr friendly guy » 2015-03-26 10:02am

So when 2020 rolls round and if Russia still hasn't attacked Gotland, will these wannabe technothriller writers admit they are wrong? Or is it by then everyone has forgotten what rubbish they sprout and they come up with new predictions.
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.

User avatar
Thanas
Magister
Magister
Posts: 30779
Joined: 2004-06-26 07:49pm

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Thanas » 2015-03-26 10:04am

They will probably believe that the Russians were held off by their warning and countermeasures being taken, no matter if such measures ever existed or not. There is no arguing with ideologues.
Whoever says "education does not matter" can try ignorance
------------
A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
------------
My LPs

User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20809
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by K. A. Pital » 2015-03-26 11:16am

mr friendly guy wrote:So when 2020 rolls round and if Russia still hasn't attacked Gotland, will these wannabe technothriller writers admit they are wrong? Or is it by then everyone has forgotten what rubbish they sprout and they come up with new predictions.
When 2020 rolls their state will probably no longer exist and the local warlords would not be generous enough to fund absurd near term fiction.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali

User avatar
Metahive
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2795
Joined: 2010-09-02 09:08am
Location: Little Korea in Big Germany

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Metahive » 2015-03-26 12:05pm

mr friendly guy wrote:So when 2020 rolls round and if Russia still hasn't attacked Gotland, will these wannabe technothriller writers admit they are wrong? Or is it by then everyone has forgotten what rubbish they sprout and they come up with new predictions.
Just as like all those religious doomsday preachers who announce the end of the world every year and then go on to predict it for the next year when it's 12/31 12:59 PM and the world still stands.
People at birth are naturally good. Their natures are similar, but their habits make them different from each other.
-Sanzi Jing (Three Character Classic)

Saddam’s crime was so bad we literally spent decades looking for our dropped monocles before we could harumph up the gumption to address it
-User Indigo Jump on Pharyngula

O God, please don't let me die today, tomorrow would be so much better!
-Traditional Spathi morning prayer

Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30123
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Simon_Jester » 2015-03-26 01:27pm

cosmicalstorm wrote:I know those people are biased against Russia pretty heavily so take it with a shaker of salt. Anyway, I live in Sweden and I must admit that I pretty much expect Gotland to be taken from Sweden at any time.
Either you are a paranoid buffoon, or all those buckyballs are causing derangement of your brain.
cosmicalstorm wrote:Here is a pretty brief summary of the coming WW3-ish events that will unfold soon if Russia decides to test NATO's will-power. The TL:DR version: Russia tests NATO by taking the Balt-states. To do so effectively it takes Gotland from Sweden. Russia might use a nuclear weapon to make Poland back away.
Russia would not "test NATO's willpower" by invading three countries on their frontiers. That is not testing willpower, that is making assumptions about their willpower. Assumptions that are not supportable and where the consequences of being wrong are massive.

Remember that the last time Russia invaded the independent Baltic states, they first laid down the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Germany to make sure they wouldn't get embroiled in a European war. Here, you're basically imagining them doing the exact opposite and deliberately courting a European war because they can't be assed to negotiate to cover themselves in a blatant land-grab of territory bitterly hostile to them.

And finally, Russia would be suicidally idiotic to use ANY nuclear weapons to overawe Poland (or Sweden, or whoever) even if they DID do something this dumb because their chief nuclear rival still has a nuclear doctrine that hinges on "second use." Shooting first in a nuclear war is never something you should do to a country with nuclear armed allies, unless you expect your first shot to put them out of action. Or, to borrow from Japanese idioms, "once you have drawn your sword, you must use it."
Sweden has no defense these days, we spent those money on other things, so we will likely lose Gotland and get our airfields and military bases on the mainland bombed pretty good. Russia does stage attack trainings of Gotland on a monthly basis.
No realistic level of defenses could prevent the Russians from taking Gotland, or at least rendering it useless as a military base, and the Russian Air Force is predictably much larger than Sweden. The situation is not likely to be much worse, if any worse, than during the Cold War in terms of what would happen if a war did break out.
Anyway, how plausible is this scenario? Should Poland be working on nuclear weapons?
Poland might or might not want a nuclear deterrent- I couldn't comment.
It has been a long time since a big war touched Europe, it seems about time now :(
Do you think wars occur because of a ringing alarm clock or something? They happen for reasons.

Over the past 12 months Russia’s air force has flown a series of aggressive combat patrols over the Baltic Sea, including mock nuclear strikes against Sweden’s capital Stockholm, in order to assess the reaction time and preparedness of Sweden’s air force. Since October 2014, Russia’s Navy has sent submarines into Swedish territorial waters to gauge the capabilities and test the preparedness of Sweden’s Navy. The conclusion: Sweden is defenseless.
Russia has been flying patrols that brush up against, or over into, other people's airspace for a long time. This is not new, nor does it mean they're planning a surprise attack.
Last week Russia’s air force progressed from testing Sweden’s military preparedness to dry runs for a major air assault. A combination of transport planes and fighter jets flew from Russia over the entire Baltic Sea to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. While Sweden didn’t even manage to get a plane in the air, Italian air force jets flying out from Šiauliai air base in Lithuania intercepted and identified the Russian jets. The Italian fighters were outnumbered 4 to 1.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Swedes already knew of the troop transfer and saw no need to interfere with an operation involving a move of aircraft from one part of Russia to another part of Russia that didn't pass through their territory.

The Italian planes were sent up as a routine thing, I have no doubt; the reason they were outnumbered is because they were not expecting a fight. You don't send up dozens of planes just to identify a column of transport planes belonging to a non-belligerent power.
The obvious targets of Russian aggression along the Baltic Sea, namely Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all share a land border with Russia, therefore there is no need for Russia to mount a large scale air assault when attacking these tiny states. However, once occupied, Putin must keep the US air force and the US Navy out of the Baltic Sea, if he wants to keep the three Baltic states occupied and oppressed. This is why Russia is preparing to assault, occupy and fortify Sweden’s Gotland Island.
In any war involving the Baltic, whether they were attacking or defending, control of Gotland would be critical. The fact that the Russians have plans for seizing Gotland proves nothing about their intentions toward the Baltic states. I suspect the Russians have had plans in place to attack Gotland since the days of Peter the Great.
If Russia were to take Gotland and base S-300 or S-400 long range air-defense and K-300P Bastion-P long range anti-ship missile systems on the island, then US air force planes would not be able reach the Baltic States and US Navy ships could not pass the Danish Straits to enter the Baltic Sea. Russia already has S-300 and K-300P, alongside tactical nuclear 9K720 Iskander missiles, stationed in Kaliningrad, but as Poland’s military could destroy Russia’s anti-ship and air-defense systems there, Russia must occupy Gotland a few hours before an attack on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania begins. And this is how Russia intends to win this war:
Alternatively the Russians could simply base their air defense and antiship missiles in the territory this idiot believes they've just occupied, and rely on their formidable submarine forces to make pushing into the confined waters of the Baltic suicidal for US warships. Also, shooting conflicts between the US and Russia would go nuclear so quickly that the whole plan is irrelevant.
Putin orders Russia’s military to perform another round of large scale maneuvers. NATO as usual monitors these maneuvers, but refrains from taking any proactive, such as raising its own state of readiness to avoid “provoking Russia”. Just as in earlier maneuvers the three Ropucha-class landing ships of the Baltic Fleet leave Kronstadt harbor to train “shipping vehicles and material to Kaliningrad”. During the night, when the people of Gotland are in bed, Special Forces from Russia’s 561st Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group, dropped off earlier by Russian submarines, attack all communications nodes on the island to sever mobile phone, internet and telephone connections with mainland Sweden, to not only prevent the Swedish government from being alerted, but also to prevent civilians from uploading images and videos of the coming brutal occupation of the island.
God, do I love sensationalism! Also the part where this guy apparently figures that he can read Russian military plans via remote viewing or whatever.
With all key installations diligently mapped in advance by Russian spies disguised as tourists the men of the 561st Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group set out to prepare the landing zones for the paratroopers of the Russian Airborne Forces. Meanwhile the Ropucha-class ships leave their course towards Kaliningrad and now head straight for Northern Gotland. A task force consisting of Russian air force transport planes and fighter jets carrying a regiment of paratroopers enters the Northern Baltic Sea and is picked up by Estonian radar operators, which alert NATO’s air policing units at Šiauliai. Two fighter jets are immediately scrambled to intercept the Russian air group, whose size is unknown as Russian radar jamming planes accompany it.

After 15 minutes the NATO planes reach the Russian air group over the Northern Baltic Sea and report its astonishing size back to base. As the two NATO fighters are forbidden to interfere unless the Russians enter NATO airspace, they only observe. At this moment the Russians are only 150km from Gotland, 12 minutes from dropping at least a thousand paratroopers.
I believe that at this point lines of communication between NATO and Moscow would be ringing rather ferociously, including, say, the presidential hotline between Washington and Moscow. I assume the Russians have a good plan for mind-controlling all these world leaders into not doing anything.

It's not that the Russians lack the ability to launch a surprise descent upon Gotland. It's that the rest of the world isn't going to ignore such a surprise attack- and if they did, frankly, it wouldn't help Sweden to be heavily armed, because Russia has a much larger military than anything Sweden can reasonably assemble.
Now the Swedish government discovers that it has no possibility to resist, as 25 years of destroying its own armed forces have left Sweden defenseless...
Now this is perhaps the one point in the whole article which is credible- that Sweden has been neglecting and defunding its military, leaving it with little recourse in the event that someone well equipped (most likely Russia, but this would be equally true of anyone else) attacks them.
But events on Gotland are just a minor blip on this day, as at sunbreak Russian troops have already crossed the borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to “free the people” of these three nations from their “fascist governments”. NATO’s Šiauliai air base is flattened within minutes by Russian OTR-21 Tochka missiles fired from Kaliningrad and the few NATO planes taking to the skies are quickly shot down by Russia’s S-300 batteries in Kaliningrad, thus giving Russia air supremacy over the Baltic States and sea.
Would this not constitute a direct attack on NATO forces, justifying armed response by the NATO powers thus attacked regardless of any discussions in Brussels? Surely the countries that provide forces for Siauliai are entitled to defend themselves.
Russian armored columns cut through the three nations with ease, as their militaries are small and have neither tanks nor air-defense systems nor attack helicopters. By Noon NATO ambassadors finally meet in Brussels. The ambassadors of the three Baltic States declare that their nations are under attack and request the activation of article 5. Poland, the UK, Denmark, Norway, Canada, France, the US and a few others agree and want to give NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe free reign to beat back the Russians and liberate the Baltic States. But Turkey, Greece, Germany and a few others refuse. Especially Germany is most likely to stall, referencing the “need to talk”, the necessity “not to provoke Russia”, the need to give Putin an “off ramp” among other bullcrap. Ultimately Germany might block a decision by stating it must first consult its parliament about invoking article 5.
...Why?

I mean, this sounds like it would be incredibly contrary to Germany's interests.
If this happens then the United States, United Kingdom, Poland, France, Norway, Denmark and Norway will act on their own. Polish fighter jets take to the skies, Danish, British, French jets follow, but Germany could refuse NATO allies the use of its airspace and go so far as to block US jets from leaving American air bases in Germany. Thus leaving Poland to go in first and go in alone. As the ordered American AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles have not yet been delivered, Polish fighters must enter the S-300 system’s range over Kaliningrad and attempt to take them out with shorter range AGM-154 JSOWs. A costly endeavor for Poland’s small air force, even though the Polish Army’s 11th Artillery Regiment continuously shells known Russian air-defense positions in Kaliningrad with its WR-40 Langusta multiple rocket launchers.
It would not take much shelling to disable an air defense site, especially since the Poles presumably have excellent information on where those air defenses are located.
By evening Russian forces patrol the three Baltic nation’s capitals and begin rounding up everyone considered hostile to Russia. Communications with the rest of the world are cut and “popular committees” have “suddenly” sprung up to thank Russia “for its timely salvation from NATO fascism”. Russian TV shows “thankful Baltic citizens”, already known to all from their previous appearances as “thankful Donbas citizens”, who recount the “horrors they suffered from the fascist Baltic-NATO hordes”. Meanwhile, Baltic military and government officials, who had access to top secret NATO information, are flown to Moscow to be interrogated and tortured by the GRU.
Thing is, there actually were a lot of people in the Crimea and the Donets Basin who were genuinely glad to see Russian forces. Here? Not so much... which is why the Russians would be out of their minds to do something like this.

The Russian occupation of the Crimea and their penetration into the Donets Basin are not a pure land grab against a hostile population. Much of the population is neutral or friendly towards them, which very much changes the feasibility of grabbing that land. Here, Russia would have to subdue many millions of hostile foreigners while somehow (!) fending off massive military counterattack.

The author is only able to justify Russia not needing to worry about the counterattack by the expedient of having the Germans inexplicably zapped by stupid rays from outer space.
All night long Allied air forces try to break through to the Baltic States and even though S-300 and other air defense systems in Kaliningrad have been greatly reduced, the ones on Gotland continue to shoot down allied planes. The United States begins an airlift of combat forces to Poland and hundreds of fighter jets and transport planes cross the Atlantic. Dozens of heavy Bombers land on English bases and are readied for strikes. The allies ask Sweden for permission to strike Russian position on Gotland. The US even offers to send the II Marine Expeditionary Force to retake Gotland for Sweden, but Russia’s ambassador to Sweden announces that if Sweden were to let allied forces cross its territory Sweden would become a target for nuclear strikes.
Two can play at that game; the appropriate response would be for the US to threaten to retaliate against a nuclear attack against a neutral country by a nuclear attack against Russian bases on the Baltic. And the Russians know this and would not play this idiot-game.
The same warning is given by Russian ambassadors to other European nations, especially to Denmark and Poland: if Denmark allows a US maritime task force passage through the Danish straits, said task force would be hit by a nuclear strike just off the coast of Copenhagen, incinerating the city along with the US ships; and if Poland were to allow the US to assemble armored divisions on its territory Russia would strike these staging areas with nuclear armed Iskander missiles fired from Kaliningrad.
Why does the author think this would work better than it did during the Cold War? Cold War Europe knew the Soviets would launch far larger and more indiscriminate nuclear attacks against NATO forces. It was part of the plan. Here, it is just assumed that the Russians can brandish their nuclear arsenal without consequence and without threat of retaliation.
By the next morning Poland’s air force is badly decimated, while its 16th Mechanized Division is engaged in heavy combat with Russian forces along Kaliningrad’s border. The first reinforcement from Poland’s 11th Armored Cavalry Division and 12th Mechanized Division arrive, but Russian forces arrive at the front in even greater numbers while Russian artillery shells Polish forces from Belarusian territory, preventing Poland from returning fire. Likewise, Russian fighter planes use Belarusian air bases to refuel and rearm, but cross into Polish airspace via Lithuanian airspace preventing Poland from attacking the bases in “neutral” Belarus.
By the way, how did NATO intelligence miss the massive Russian troop buildup that would have preceded this attack?
Meanwhile, in the forests of the Baltic States, Russian Special Forces are executing thousands of people to eliminate all possible resistance before it can sprout. High profile politicians are spared (for now) and parliamentarians are threatened with execution if they do not assemble to vote for a new pro-Russian government. By Noon all three Baltic nations have new pro-Russian governments made up of Quislings and other collaborationist scum, which have all been recruited in advance by Russian intelligence agencies.
Now he's just fanficcing. Does he have evidence that the Russians actually have been trying to recruit collaborator-governments to help them rule the Baltic states that desperately don't want to be ruled by Russia and would cheerfully murder these collaborators at every opportunity even now before this hypothetical invasion?

For that matter, does he have evidence that the Russians have done anything along these lines in fifty years?

He might as well assert that the Germans will spontaneously metamorphose back into Nazis the next time the moon is full.
The next day Germany’s press is full of Russia’s bought sellouts and useful idiots warning that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes. The same happens in Sweden, where hundreds of Russian spies and bought traitors demand that Sweden remain neutral and allow Russia “temporary” possession of Gotland; “Resistance is futile” they say.
Which spies? Which traitors? Does the author have here in his hand a list of "hundreds and hundreds" of "Russian spies and bought traitors" in Germany and Sweden? Or is he bullshitting? I say bullshitting.
Meanwhile the three Baltic ambassadors to NATO call for an urgent meeting at which they announce that their nations withdraw the motion to invoke article 5. Even though all NATO ambassadors present know that the three Baltic ambassadors are acting under Russian threats to execute their captured families, Germany, besides Turkey and Greece the nation most likely to go full treacherous, demands that all sides cease combat operations immediately. The US and its valiant allies refuse to abandon the Baltics and thus NATO is destroyed.
Further bullshitting, further hagiography of the US and Poland and attempts to make the Germans the villains for no obvious reason.
With the allies unable to ship reinforcement to Poland and with Germany closing its territory for allied flights and transports, the only nation Russia must knock out to win this war is Poland. As Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US military, even more so if NATO would have stuck together, and as Russia cannot hope to blackmail nuclear powers like France, the UK and the US, Russia’s military doctrine demands to threaten non-nuclear nations with nuclear strikes and thus prevent them from resisting Russian aggression. The word Russia uses for such strikes is “de-escalation”. That’s Russian thinking: we de-escalate by nuking a city and killing 100,000 people. I kid you not. Russia’s official policy is to nuke nations that resist, which in Russia’s insane, brutal view is a “de-escalation”.
Does he cite this or just assert it?
Therefore, on the morning of the third day Russia issues a warning to Poland to cease fire, stating correctly that Russian forces have not entered Polish territory and therefore Poland should stand down and not risk having one or more of its cities struck by a nuclear bomb for helping nations like Estonia, which have “greeted Russian forces as liberators”. But Poland, brave Poland, keeps fighting as more and more US troops arrive. And so on the afternoon of the third day Russia fires an Iskander missile at a Polish city. Łódź being the most likely target: far enough away from Russia and Germany to reduce the effects of nuclear fallout on these two indirectly allied nations and with enough population to kill 100,000 civilians with ease.

The world is in shock. Poland demands its allies retaliate by nuking a Russian city, but France, the UK and the US refuse. Nuking a Russian city would inevitably lead to a Russian counterstrike and thus nuclear Armageddon. Poland is abandoned. Poland thus must ceases fire and under tears subjugate to Russian demands of a demilitarized zone and elimination of its armored and air forces.
Fuck this noise.

The entire point of NATO is that the US is willing to launch those nuclear attacks, and has been consistently declaring so for seventy years. The Russians would be completely, staggeringly idiotic to gamble on this.

Does the author have evidence citing that Putin or his successor is stupid and suicidal?
And exactly this last paragraph is what Putin dreams about. This is his deepest wish. So he will wage this war.
Bullshit, there is no evidence of Putin intending such a thing. Does the author claim to be psychic?

Putin has shown no sign of wanting to reduce Finland or Poland to economic vassalage; this is a figment of the author's imagination.
He planned to wage it later, around 2020 when the decade long rearmament of Russia’s military will be complete, but events in Ukraine forced him to act earlier. Many people believe this to be fantasy… you wish! Russia ordered Mistral ships from France for the explicit purpose to attack Gotland and Crimea. Right now Russia is deploying the forces it needs for this war to Kaliningrad. Russia is doing dry runs for this war every week. Russia is getting ready.
Not nearly enough evidence that the mere existence of Russian military exercises proves they are planning a war in the near future.
But Europe isn’t. Sweden plans to send 150 troops to Gotland sometime in the future… 150 men- a company, unlike during the Cold War when an entire armored brigade of 5000 men was garrisoned on Gotland. NATO did not forward deploy ground forces to the Baltic Nations, as I demanded over a year ago (!).
To be fair, heavier garrisons on Gotland and in the Baltic states would probably actually be a good idea, it's just that everything else this guy says is idiotic.
Germany keeps blocking all sensible NATO preparations and even cut its defense spending in 2014 and in 2015. Merkel and Steinmeier, not content with having actively helped Putin dismember Ukraine, now forcefully push for NATO to be unprepared, by vetoing even planning for key operations in case Russia gears up to attack; like planning for NATO to occupy Gotland at the first whiff of Russian stirred hybrid war in the Baltic States.
Citation needed that any of this is true.
Instead of arming Ukraine and thus forcing Russia to deploy large amounts of its troops there, Germany and other EU nations even block attempts by Ukraine to buy weapons, thus allowing Putin to keep 90% of his army free for a strike against the Baltic States.
There is no evidence beyond conspiracy theories that an attack on the Baltic states is imminent. Arming the Ukraine (which is not a NATO member) would be an act of war against Russia, in the event that the Russians do wind up at war with the Ukraine.
And when that strike comes, Germany is the most likely candidate to balk and wiggle out of its NATO commitments, because for Germans Eastern Europeans are still Untermenschen, as was evidenced by Germany’s nasty, arrogant and disgusting scolding of Poland, when Poland warned that Russia only built the North Stream gas pipeline to bypass Eastern European nations and thus allow it to blackmail and threaten them with its gas-weapon.
I will not comment on this particularly venomous characterization of the Germans, save to remark that it sounds quite at odds with what I've heard from real Germans.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov

User avatar
Iroscato
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2348
Joined: 2011-02-07 03:04pm
Location: Great Britain (It's great, honestly!)

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Iroscato » 2015-03-26 01:36pm

cosmicalstorm wrote: It has been a long time since a big war touched Europe, it seems about time now :(
To touch on this bit - it's been a long time, yes...and one of the big reasons is the nuclear deterrent that many countries now have. That has stopped a great many conflicts from spilling over into WW2 - level slugfests.
That's how I've been taught anyway, if anyone more educated than I wishes to correct me, I implore you to do so :P
Yeah, I've always taken the subtext of the Birther movement to be, "The rules don't count here! This is different! HE'S BLACK! BLACK, I SAY! ARE YOU ALL BLIND!?

- Raw Shark

Destiny and fate are for those too weak to forge their own futures. Where we are 'supposed' to be is irrelevent.

- SirNitram (RIP)

User avatar
cosmicalstorm
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1642
Joined: 2008-02-14 09:35am

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by cosmicalstorm » 2015-03-26 03:39pm

I'm glad to get a second opinion on this. I would be pleased to see that I was wrong, perhaps I'm too paranoid.

Why are the Baltic states so nervous today if they have nothing to fear?

User avatar
Iroscato
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2348
Joined: 2011-02-07 03:04pm
Location: Great Britain (It's great, honestly!)

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Iroscato » 2015-03-26 04:11pm

cosmicalstorm wrote:I'm glad to get a second opinion on this. I would be pleased to see that I was wrong, perhaps I'm too paranoid.

Why are the Baltic states so nervous today if they have nothing to fear?
I can assure you that you are, based on this and many of your previous posts. I feel sorry for you really, the world must be fucking terrifying to live in for you. :|
Yeah, I've always taken the subtext of the Birther movement to be, "The rules don't count here! This is different! HE'S BLACK! BLACK, I SAY! ARE YOU ALL BLIND!?

- Raw Shark

Destiny and fate are for those too weak to forge their own futures. Where we are 'supposed' to be is irrelevent.

- SirNitram (RIP)

User avatar
Lord Revan
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 11397
Joined: 2004-05-20 02:23pm
Location: Zone:classified

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Lord Revan » 2015-03-26 05:26pm

cosmicalstorm wrote:I'm glad to get a second opinion on this. I would be pleased to see that I was wrong, perhaps I'm too paranoid.

Why are the Baltic states so nervous today if they have nothing to fear?
We got remember that the Baltic states were in essense occupied by Soviet Union from the late 1930s until the early 1990s so it's a long to gather bad blood towards the russians. Hell even Finland that survived the occupation and assimilation had to fight a rather bitter from essentially 1939 until 1944.
I may be an idiot, but I'm a tolerated idiot
"I think you completely missed the point of sigs. They're supposed to be completely homegrown in the fertile hydroponics lab of your mind, dried in your closet, rolled, and smoked...
Oh wait, that's marijuana..."Einhander Sn0m4n

User avatar
Fingolfin_Noldor
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 11834
Joined: 2006-05-15 10:36am
Location: At the Helm of the HAB Star Dreadnaught Star Fist

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor » 2015-03-26 05:52pm

Isn't Euromaidan run by some bunch of crazy nutty butt hurt Ukrainian Nationalists who think Ukrainian is the bestest language around and what not? I could have sworn that one has to really eat copious amounts of salt just to even read one of their articles.
Image
STGOD: Byzantine Empire
Your spirit, diseased as it is, refuses to allow you to give up, no matter what threats you face... and whatever wreckage you leave behind you.
Kreia

User avatar
phongn
Rebel Leader
Posts: 18484
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:11pm
Location: San Jose, CA
Contact:

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by phongn » 2015-03-26 06:18pm

cosmicalstorm wrote: Should Poland be working on nuclear weapons?
You know that Poland is a member of NATO, and thus under the American nuclear umbrella, right?
HAB | Rei Likes Pie | Vote Kynes! | SDN Senator | ASVS Great Old One c/o '98 | SB First One

Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30123
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: The coming Russian war

Post by Simon_Jester » 2015-03-26 11:14pm

Lord Revan wrote:
cosmicalstorm wrote:I'm glad to get a second opinion on this. I would be pleased to see that I was wrong, perhaps I'm too paranoid.

Why are the Baltic states so nervous today if they have nothing to fear?
We got remember that the Baltic states were in essense occupied by Soviet Union from the late 1930s until the early 1990s so it's a long to gather bad blood towards the russians. Hell even Finland that survived the occupation and assimilation had to fight a rather bitter from essentially 1939 until 1944.
Also, it's not that the Baltic states have literally zero reason for fear. It's that their fears are very unlikely to be realized given the current state of European geopolitics. And that if that changes, it is unlikely that the result will be an exact repeat of the Soviet expansionist wars of 1939-40, which is basically what these Euromaidan clowns are portraying here, give or take a little.

A lot of things could happen, many of which are in some way bad for the Baltic states.

But it is very much anti-logical to take all those possible bad scenarios and distill them down into one "RUSSIA WILL INVADE YOU RIGHT THE FUCK NOW AND EURO-EUNUCHS ARE POWERLESS TO SAVE YOU!" scenario like this.

This is a fallacy... I'm not sure there's a name for formally. I've heard it called privileging the hypothesis. Basically, what it comes down to is that if there are a trillion possible explanations, or a trillion possible futures, it is objectively a mistake to try and invent a single scenario or choose a single explanation out of the pack and then somehow try and justify that scenario or explanation being the 'true' one.

It's like, if there are a million people in a city and you're investigating a murder, and you say "one of these people committed the murder," you do NOT start by choosing one at random and going "well, maybe it's Mortimer Q. Snodgrass," and then doing a massive investigation of Snodgrass's past. Do that and you have a very high chance of accidentally putting an innocent man in jail, compared to the literally one in a million chance that Snodgrass actually committed the crime.

Instead, to actually get the right answer and engage in correct, logical action, you must be careful to avoid bias and resist the impulse to pick a single pet theory that then gets favorable treatment. You start out by eliminating large, broad categories of things that are clearly not the solution, narrowing down the problem a bit at a time, until it becomes possible to make an accurate prediction or claim.

There's more on this at the post I linked.
________________

So basically, these guys are saying "Russia is menacing!" Then they immediately jump to a specific, very dramatic, very low-probability scenario of exactly how Russia might be menacing. They methodically ignore a huge amount of evidence suggesting that this is NOT the exact way Russia would menace anyone, and outright fabricate reasons to believe that their particular private fantasy-story is the true one.

As a result, the 'article' in question is bad military fiction, not a realistic description of a plausible threat.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov

Post Reply