Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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Irbis
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Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Irbis »

In case someone remembers last discussions on automation and loss of jobs, a few people recently proposed to repeat bold move that was introduction 40 hour work week back in previous century, and cut it again. And no, before local 'just raise your education/efficiency/skills' crew chimes in, these weren't communist subversive thinkers:

Larry Page, co-founder of Google, 15th richest man on Earth:
Plan For People Whose Jobs Are Replaced By Tech: Work Less

Page and Google co-founder Sergey Brin talked last week with venture capitalist Vinod Khosla at a Khosla Ventures summit. The conversation touched on Google’s long-term strategies and self-driving cars, but reached its peak when Page began talking about an underemployed future:

90-percent of people used to be farmers. So it’s happened before. It’s not surprising.

I totally believe we should be living in a time of abundance, like Peter Diamandis’ book. If you really think about the things that you need to make yourself happy – housing, security, opportunities for your kids – anthropologists have been identifying these things. It’s not that hard for us to provide those things. The amount of resources we need to do that, the amount of work that actually needs to go into that is pretty small. I’m guessing less than 1-percent at the moment.

So the idea that everyone needs to work frantically to meet people’s needs is just not true. I do think there’s a problem that we don’t recognize that. I think there’s also a social problem that a lot of people aren’t happy if they don’t have anything to do.

So we need to give people things to do. We need to feel like you’re needed, wanted and have something productive to do. But I think the mix with that and the industries we actually need and so on are– there’s not a good correspondence. That’s why we’re busy destroying the environment and other things, maybe we don’t need to be doing. So I’m pretty worried. Until we figure that out, we’re not going to have a good outcome.


One thing, I was talking to Richard Branson about this. They don’t have enough jobs in the UK. He’s been trying to get people to hire two part-time people instead of one full-time. So at least, the young people can have a half-time job rather than no job. And it’s a slightly greater cost for employers.

I was thinking, the extension of that is you have global unemployment or widespread unemployment. You just reduce work time. Everyone I’ve asked– I’ve asked a lot of people about this. Maybe not you guys. But most people, if I ask them, ‘Would you like an extra week of vacation?’ They raise their hands, 100-percent of the people. ‘Two weeks vacation, or a four-day work week?’ Everyone will raise their hand.

Most people like working, but they’d also like to have more time with their family or to pursue their own interests. So that would be one way to deal with the problem, is if you had a coordinated way to just reduce the workweek. And then, if you add slightly less employment, you can adjust and people will still have jobs.
Carlos Slim, richest man in the world:
A three-day work week may sound idealistic, but the world's richest man thinks it should be the standard.

Carlos Slim is calling for a "radical overhaul" of how people work. People shouldn’t retire when they are 50 or 60 – instead, people should work until they are older, but take more time off during their longer careers, says the Mexican telecoms tycoon, and now the richest man in the world.

“People are going to have to work for more years, until they are 70 or 75, and just work three days a week – perhaps 11 hours a day,” he said at a business conference in Paraguay last week, according to Paraguay.com, as translated by the Financial Times. A three-day work week would allow people to relax more and lead to a healthier and more productive labor force, Slim says. Plus, working beyond your fifties and sixties would benefit people financially, he added.
Finally, excellent video on why 40 hour work week might soon prove to be unsustainable mirage:

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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Mr Bean »

Chances are we will get a 30 hour work week before we get a 24 hour week. Let me be blunt, I know which hours of the day nothing gets done. Sure there are professions where you need to work long hours (I'm looking at you medical field) but a lot of the shit pay long hours jobs will be robot jobs thirty years from now (Hello Warehouse jobs).

Thing is, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, so the best thing you can hope for is being born oh about fifty years from now.

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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Irbis »

Mr Bean wrote:Chances are we will get a 30 hour work week before we get a 24 hour week.
Possibly. In fact, I just saw Commies... Sweden is already trying it:
Sweden To Experiment With Six-Hour Workday

A few lucky workers in Gothenburg, Sweden, will scale back to a six-hour workday this summer as part of an unusual government experiment.

The test group of government workers will work a six-hour day beginning July 1, while a second control group will continue to work an eight-hour day, according to The Local, an English-language news site.

The government hopes to find out whether shorter days will translate into higher productivity per hour and fewer sick days. After one year of the test, the government will decide whether to extend the program to other sectors of the government.

“We hope to get the staff members taking fewer sick days and feeling better mentally and physically after they've worked shorter days," Mats Pilhelm, a Left Party city councillor in Gothenburg, told The Local.

Pilhelm also told the AFP he believed the shorter shifts would lead to an increase in worker efficiency. Longer shifts, he believes, require employees to take more breaks.

"Every time you have a break, it takes 10 to 15 minutes to get back to work, because you have to see where you were when you left off," he said, adding that a Gothenburg Toyota factory had seen promising results after testing a six-hour workday.

Another Swedish town, Kiruna, long ago decided to test out the six-hour workday. But the town decided to end the 16-year experiment in 2005 after some complained that a compressed workweek actually put more pressure on workers who struggled to increase the pace of their work.

Gothenburg's new experimental policy stands in contrast to the the United States’ “cult of overwork," where employees are often expected to exceed the 40-hour workweek. A 2013 survey found eight in 10 Americans feel stressed about their jobs; common woes include an increasing workload and decreasing work-life balance.

There is some evidence to support the notion that productivity declines as work hours increase, but real-world applications of reduced workweeks yield mixed results.

France is seen as something of a champion of a worker's right to leisure time. Recently, the nation approved a labour agreement that obliges consulting and technology employees to "disconnect from remote communications tools" at the end of the workday.

And though France is sometimes known as "the land of the 35-hour workweek," the reality is often quite different. For instance, 50 percent of blue-collar workers put in paid overtime in 2010, and a Reuters report found that French middle managers worked an average of 44 hours per week.

On the flip side, German workers put in an average of 394 hours less than Americans each year, and still manage to have the world's fourth most productive economy. But even there, some companies have been quietly renegotiating 40-hour work weeks.

If Sweden's latest foray into shorter workdays pays off, harried American employers could take a lesson from this experiment in Scandinavian ingenuity. But we're not getting our hopes up.
There is also interesting chart on the end of article. Poland and Russia top slaving... efficiency levels, and look where that got us. I'd say totally nowhere, sadly.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Borgholio »

Shorter work days = fewer breaks but overall less stress due to spending more time at home? I can...see how that might work. I'd like to keep tabs on this experiment and see how it holds up.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

This will be an attractive idea to anyone on a monthy salary. Anyone paid an hourly wage will not be so interested.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Patroklos »

I don't think we will see overall hours reduced but rather flex schedules in the near future. I personally don't mind late days because once I am at work and "in the zone" spending one or two hours more working is really not an issue. I would much rather work four 10 hour says than five 8 hour days and have the extra day off.

Thats doesn't directly address the employment issue of course, but rather stress and work life balance.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Simon_Jester »

The biggest question in my mind about this kind of thing is, are we going to adapt the economic climate so that working a 30-hour job results in about as good a life as a 40-hour job used to? Otherwise the typical worker hasn't experienced a shortened week; it's more likely that they wind up working two jobs.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Elheru Aran »

Yeah, unless a minimum wage is sufficient to pay living expenses, shortening hours is not going to do anybody on a hourly rate any good.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by K. A. Pital »

Mexico has the longest working hours of all nations or is among the top there. Where it got them? Nowhere.

Hourly rates suck: the pay should be determined on a per-month basis, like in almost all sensible nations.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Irbis »

Patroklos wrote:I don't think we will see overall hours reduced but rather flex schedules in the near future.
Look at video. Unless we solve creeping 40-50% unemployment we will have soon, we're going to have revolution on the scale of 1917 one. Well, that or mass sterilization and population control far more drastic than anything known from SF. Flexi-hours (which is really just yet another attempt to squeeze more work from less people) will only make problem worse.
Simon_Jester wrote:The biggest question in my mind about this kind of thing is, are we going to adapt the economic climate so that working a 30-hour job results in about as good a life as a 40-hour job used to? Otherwise the typical worker hasn't experienced a shortened week; it's more likely that they wind up working two jobs.
As someone in economic press commented: "I read the exact same kind of questions in historic press when ye olde radical commies instituted 40 hour work day instead of honest six day 12 hour shifts. I wonder who was right then, was it people who repeated the same drivel we hear today, that it will lessen work efficiency, make people poor and will lead to mass degeneration of morals?"

Frankly, he is right. Our poor dear 'jobgivers' sang the same old, worn out tune for century now. That worsening of job conditions plus lack of any improvement is entirely for the worker's own good (doublehonest!) so we don't need commie stuff like minimum wage or overtime FOR ECONOMY'S SAKE. All while (totally by accident!) companies note record profits, rich have Gilded Age levels of capital accumulation, and middle class is weakest in decades.

Maybe, just maybe it's time to try something different than the above crap.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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In the US, Obamacare will pressure the new workweek toward 29 hours in the coming years, since companies can stop offering health care to these workers and they will still be able to buy it affordably. This will broaden the insurance base and make it even cheaper, resulting in less backlash for companies to drop employees onto it, which means more of the population on ACA which means stronger political will to strengthen the program. The problem is that this cycle will also pressure the govt budget since more and more people are being subsidized, but the median societal cost will be less than our current system, even if the part of the bill that the taxpayer foots increases. However this is a serious issue in the US where the general public starts violently sneezing whenever tax increases are mentioned, even as they happily fork over much greater sums to private companies for the same or crappier services.

People who work 29 hours per week will have plenty of time to spend with their kids, pursue writing and other creative projects, garden and urban farm, traffic will be less of an issue, and quality of life overall will skyrocket. The problem is that this all goes off the rails if a decent living is not affordable on 29 hours. We have more than enough wealth in the country for it to be affordable, but it won't be a reality until the populace starts seeing a serious problem with things like a very intelligent and equally dishonest person with the gift of salesmanship able make millions of dollars in a single year on Wall St by figuring out how to transfer existing wealth to their firm without creating anything of value, or that said firm is allowed to trade against 401(k) investors whose life savings are at stake and have no idea what they are doing with no genuine educational resources and no one looking out for their interests, or that vast resources can be allocated to the mismanagement of a worthless individual who can't successfully fog a mirror simply because his/her parents were rich and we've virtually abolished the death tax.

I doubt the baby boom generation will wake up and smell the coffee before they kick the bucket, so I don't see things getting much better for another 20 years unless the economy and markets crash for real and wipe out the excess wealth that would have been used to rig the political system, which is what happened in the 1930's and is directly responsible for the emergence of a strong middle class in the 40's, 50's, and 60's. Absent that, I'm not sure how the combination of lower and lower demand for workers and higher and higher wealth transfer to the rich will play out, but I can't imagine it will be good.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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Arthur_Tuxedo wrote:People who work 29 hours per week will have plenty of time to spend with their kids, pursue writing and other creative projects, garden and urban farm, traffic will be less of an issue, and quality of life overall will skyrocket.
I'm actually on working on getting this for myself right now.
The problem is that this all goes off the rails if a decent living is not affordable on 29 hours.
....and that's the current fly in the ointment.

Although give me another year and I might be back to truly financially independent.

However - in my case I'd have "traditional" job at 29 hours/week and then being making additional money off those "side interests". Played right, though, it might also give me a level of security and independence from the wage slavery I wouldn't otherwise have, making staying with an employer more of a choice and less an act of desperation. It still cycles back to having two jobs rather than one.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Starglider »

While this sentiment is correct in the long term, in the recent past and near future a large part (possibly most) of the drop in first-world employment and labor pricing power is due to globalisation. Offshoring of manufacturing, resource extraction and a fair amount of white collar work. As long as global labor arbitrage is a dominant theme, a shorter working week in developed countries is not sustainable, because the drop in competitiveness causes even greater trade imbalances and a consequent debt spiral. Of course this applies only to a reduction in hours that leads to lower productivity; countries like Japan and the US with a culture of excessive working hours could certainly work less without reducing productivity.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by K. A. Pital »

Japan's excessive hours produced a zero-growth result for the last 20 years or so. Actually the only tangible result of the past decades in Japan is the reduction in working hours and the movement of a sizeable share of workers to part-time jobs. The US' growth is the result of exploiting immigrant labour while cutting down on heavy expenses to bring these immigrants up and also making them pay for their own education. Unsustainable.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by madd0ct0r »

why is it unsustainable? there's still a heavy queue of people willing to immigrate to the US under the same conditions.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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Just that some people want to immigrate because they believe they will be the ones who are going to be lucky and thrive in the system, doesn't mean the system is working. People believe a lot of things that aren't based on reality. If you look at how many people fall through the cracks for everyone getting lucky, you'll see that there is a very distinct trend.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by madd0ct0r »

so it's the potential revolt of the underclass that makes it unsustainable? Or is it the immigrant population having to produce enough to sustain the social network needed to prevent the revolt that rapidly becomes unsustainable as the underclass grows in size from immigration too?
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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Stas Bush wrote:Japan's excessive hours produced a zero-growth result for the last 20 years or so. Actually the only tangible result of the past decades in Japan is the reduction in working hours and the movement of a sizeable share of workers to part-time jobs. The US' growth is the result of exploiting immigrant labour while cutting down on heavy expenses to bring these immigrants up and also making them pay for their own education. Unsustainable.
Uh... that's close to and compatible with Starglider's point.

He said that the US and Japan can reduce working hours without impairing productivity because their workers are working too many hours, to the point where it does not increase productivity.

Meanwhile, you say that the US and Japans' excessive working hours are unsustainable.

You may be under the impression that he's saying "oh, we need the super-long hours to compete with developing countries' cheap labor." He's not. He's saying that the super-long hours do not contribute to the US's or Japan's productivity, and reducing them would do no harm.

I don't see the conflict.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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Patroklos wrote:I don't think we will see overall hours reduced but rather flex schedules in the near future. I personally don't mind late days because once I am at work and "in the zone" spending one or two hours more working is really not an issue. I would much rather work four 10 hour says than five 8 hour days and have the extra day off. [snip]
Anecdote: I managed to wrangle this schedule for myself back when I worked in a big office, and it was fantastic (until they started fucking with it). I (theoretically) worked 10 hours on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, and had the rest completely off. It was great when they actually let me do it instead of calling me in for a random teleconference at 2am on my day off that I could've done from home if it weren't for the security protocols or some bullshit. I had the whole weekend to really relax, and Wednesday to do errands during the day when it's not crowded. Working two 10-hour days in a row instead of five 8-hour days is a breeze, and I never got better sleep in a traditional job.

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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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Yeah, that 2-1-2-2 schedule is great - I loved it when I had it - but since my wife has a traditional 5-2 with no wiggle room, and we commute together, it doesn't work out too well for her, so I had to drop it.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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madd0ct0r wrote:so it's the potential revolt of the underclass that makes it unsustainable? Or is it the immigrant population having to produce enough to sustain the social network needed to prevent the revolt that rapidly becomes unsustainable as the underclass grows in size from immigration too?
There are a lot of problems with that, but let's go for the simplest:

You are having an increasing underclass competing for a slower increasing number of low-paying jobs. This is aggravated by the fact that you realistically need two of these jobs to make a living. This means that the number of people unemployed and underemployed who are dependant on foodstamps (=tax money) is growing faster than the tax income (since this happens all across classes, except for a few thousend people on the top).

This will cause the system to collapse eventually, which is the definition of unsustainable.

There are a few possible solutions:
- Taxes are raised.

This will only result in getting more people who are still scraping by into financial trouble, and even if the rich are hit by the hike (which usually is avoided by being able to afford tricks to evade taxes), it will probablyjust shove the problem down the line for a bit.

- Immigration stop

Since this is only a very small part of the problem, it's almost negible.

- Wages are raised

This would work, since it gets some people off welfare. It would increase consumer spending since more money goes around, wich will boost economy. But it will probably result in slower hiring. Depending on elasticy of these relations and wheter or not the wages are kept up to date with inflation (don't know if they do this in the US, in Europe this is common and has worked to keep middle class alive) it could work or just delay the collapse.

-Work hours reduction
Making it illegal to work more than X hours means that someon has to step in to work the rest, creating jobs. If the average weekly income is kept the same(=wage increase), it would work best. Same as above, more jobs, more money, more spending.

So the best possible system (indefinitely sustainable) would be one where the hours of work are tailored to get as many people as possible employed (probably allowing for a small unemployment quote as a buffer, say, 5%), while simultaniously keeping minimum wage around (or a tiny safety margin above) the subsistence limit with annual corrections. Other wages will be adapted by the same ratio, to keep an incentive to move up. (Or else everyone would be working for minimum wage after some time.

It's basically something alike the "Kollektivvertrag" strategy, but including an occasional review of work hours. At some point, work hours will come to rest at a point where population and job growth will correlate.

Add a (bi-?)centennial currency reform to keep the numbers within functional ranges, and you're good to go.


Or you could simply tax capital gain and finance everything. (Since income from speculation is usually exponential. But good luck getting these people to pay-they are good at evading taxes.)
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by K. A. Pital »

I am not arguing with Starglider, but adding to his point. He is right.

It is also true that further labour-saving technologies can lower the necessary time even more.
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by Simon_Jester »

Ah. Sorry, I thought you were disagreeing with him.

That said, I'm not sure what you mean by "the necessary time." The time necessary to do what, exactly?
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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

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LaCroix wrote:Yeah, that 2-1-2-2 schedule is great - I loved it when I had it - but since my wife has a traditional 5-2 with no wiggle room, and we commute together, it doesn't work out too well for her, so I had to drop it.
If this became standard, it'd work out better for people's social lives. Monday and Friday would be super-coveted status symbols as the extra day off, with Wednesday a close second because it's awesome, and everybody else would try to console themselves with merely having Tuesday or Thursday off and the annoyance of having to come in for one isolated day by trying to arrange the same day off as their SO, or probably not really care if they don't have one (which allows trading someone else's coveted day for some other advantage).

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Re: Shorten 40 hour work week proposal

Post by LaCroix »

Raw Shark wrote:
LaCroix wrote:Yeah, that 2-1-2-2 schedule is great - I loved it when I had it - but since my wife has a traditional 5-2 with no wiggle room, and we commute together, it doesn't work out too well for her, so I had to drop it.
If this became standard, it'd work out better for people's social lives. Monday and Friday would be super-coveted status symbols as the extra day off, with Wednesday a close second because it's awesome, and everybody else would try to console themselves with merely having Tuesday or Thursday off and the annoyance of having to come in for one isolated day by trying to arrange the same day off as their SO, or probably not really care if they don't have one (which allows trading someone else's coveted day for some other advantage).
Well, since a lot of people (almost everyone not working in an office or at sales, to be honest) already work on Saturday/Sunday, you could just as well make the schedule a full week, with 4 days of work and 3 days off. I wouldn't mind working on Weekend, as I grew up with parents owning a restaurant - Monday and Tuesday are pretty neat days off...

But for this to work, the shedule needs to be in the contract - if that could be shifted at whim, it would wreck social life. A friend of mine works in a factory that shifts shifts around randomly (as in - next week 11 to 19, but wednesday off with saturday a workday - random) on almost a weekly basis (only in Hungary... :roll: ), and he can't plan anything ahead because of this.
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay

I do archery skeet. With a Trebuchet.
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