Mosul falls to Islamist

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-10/i ... ul/5514000

Mosul: Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki calls for state of emergency after insurgents take control
Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago

Iraq's prime minister Nuri al-Maliki has asked parliament to declare a state of emergency in the northern city of Mosul after it was seized by insurgents.

Radical Sunni Muslim militants took control of most of the city, Iraq's second largest, overrunning a military base and freeing thousands of prisoners in a spectacular strike against the Shiite-led government.


AUDIO: Hayden Cooper reports on the fall of Mosul (AM)
The capture of Mosul by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) - an offshoot of Al Qaeda - and its allies followed four days of fierce fighting in Mosul and other cities and towns in the northern Iraq province of Nineveh.
In a statement broadcast on state TV, Mr Maliki said the Iraqi government will provide weapons and equipment to citizens who volunteer to fight against militants.

He said the cabinet had "created a special crisis cell to follow up on the process of volunteering and equipping and arming".

Witnesses say many locals are now fleeing, among them army troops who have abandoned their posts.

The United Nation's International Organisation for Migration said violence in recent days has "displaced over 500,000 Iraqis within and outside the city of Mosul".

The ISIS militants torched police stations, seized the government headquarters and have reportedly freed thousands of prisoners.

The fall of Mosul deals a serious blow to Baghdad's efforts to fight Sunni militants who have regained ground and momentum in Iraq over the past year and pushed into Mosul last week.

A Reuters reporter saw policemen swapping their uniforms for plain clothes and discarding their weapons before fleeing the city. The bodies of soldiers and policemen, some of them mutilated, littered the streets.

"We can't beat them. We can't. They are well trained in street fighting and we're not. We need a whole army to drive them out of Mosul," one officer said.

"They're like ghosts: they appear to hit and disappear within seconds".

Earlier, police, military and security officials told Reuters news agency the insurgents, armed with anti-aircraft weapons and rocket-propelled grenades, had taken over almost all police and army checkpoints in and around Mosul.

"We have lost Mosul this morning. Army and police forces left their positions and ISIS terrorists are in full control," an army colonel at the local military command said.

"It's a total collapse for the security forces."

Two Iraqi army officers said security forces had received orders to leave the city after militants captured the Ghizlani army base in southern Mosul and set more than 200 prisoners free from a high security jail.

The retreating army and police forces set fire to fuel and ammunition depots in order to prevent the militants from using them, the Iraqi officers said.

Two police sources and a local government official said the ISIS militants had also stormed a jail, allowing more than 1,000 prisoners to escape, which they identified as belonging mostly to ISIS and Al Qaeda.

The army has been fighting ISIS in western Iraq since the start of the year when they overran two cities in the Sunni heartland of Anbar, which shares a border with Syria.

US condemns Mosul attack

The United States on Tuesday condemned the seizure of Mosul by Sunni insurgents, saying it supported "a strong, coordinated response to push back against this aggression," offering assistance to the government of Iraq.

"The United States is deeply concerned about the events that have transpired in Mosul over the last 48 hours where elements of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISIL) have taken over significant parts of the city," US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement.

Ms Psaki added that senior US officials in both Washington and Baghdad were tracking events closely in coordination with Iraqi's government as well as Iraqi leaders from across the political spectrum including the Kurds.

"The United States will provide all appropriate assistance to the Government of Iraq under the Strategic Framework Agreement to help ensure that these efforts succeed," she said.

Families, demoralised fighters flee flaming Mosul

Thousands of families were fleeing the city towards the autonomous Kurdish region, which shares a border with Nineveh province, of which Mosul is the capital.

"Mosul now is like hell. It's up in flames," said Amina Ibrahim, who was leaving the city with her young children.

"I lost my husband in a bomb blast last year, I don't want my kids to follow him".

On Monday, governor Atheel Nujaifi made a televised plea to the people of Mosul to fight militants.

Mr Nujaifi himself narrowly escaped the provincial headquarters in Mosul after militants surrounded it late on Monday.

Meanwhile, in the town of Baqubah, 50 kilometres north-east of Baghdad, at least 20 mourners were killed when two bombs exploded at a cemetery.

Police say the group were gathered at the cemetery for the burial of a university professor shot dead the previous day.

I really worry whether the coalition of the willing has just replaced a secular dictator and human rights abuser, with religious fanatics who abuse human rights. Still early days yet, but not promising.

[Block]

Unfortunately it's not early days. Fallujah has been under ISIS control for months and the Iraqi government can't get the forces together to take it back. ISIS is truly truly nasty, they were disowned by AQI for being too extreme in their methods.

[Sea Skimmer]

Yeah well this is what you get when the present US administration does everything possible to discredit anything even remotely approaching moderate opposition in Syria, or for that matter anyone not outright foaming at the mouth, while stringing the war along anyway. Low and behold radicalism fills the void and its well established that ISIL recruiting skyrocketed after the nerve gas attacks in Damascus. ISIL has meanwhile always operated on both sides of the border, and we are now left with a situation in which the only thing that is really fighting fake Al Qeada aka ISIL is real Al Qaeda aka Al Nursa, and the Kurds in Syria, but unfortunately real Al Qaeda and the fairly small Islamic Front are actually mainly interested in fighting Assad... while on the Iraqi side I sense that the situation is far more complex then it appears to be. Mainly I question that the abandonment of Mosul by 10,000 Iraqi troops was actually forced by combat, and not linked to the fact that certain Iraqi divisions in the north are almost entirely Kurds of questionable loyalty to Baghdad (most of the troops retreated into firmly Kurdish areas rather then south). They may have abandon the city as part of a plan to finally split away from Iraq, and join with the now independent Kurds of Syria to finally create a independent Kurdistan. Or not, but well, its entirely possible.

[mr friendly guy]

@Block.

I stand corrected. Is it time to become pessimistic now?

[Sea Skimmer]

Ramadi is also about half controlled by ISIL, both western cities basically have the Iraqi army keeping the highway open and that's it. The region where the Eurphates crosses into Syria has been ISIL for oh... like two years meanwhile. But the Iraqi government was intentionally not trying to fight this in open combat because of the blood bath issue, and a general hope that a second Anbar Awakening would deal with it, not entirely an unreasonable approach. Mosul though is a much different situation, different ethnic, geographical (OIL in proximity!) and military problem. Also it fell to a large organized and externally launched offensive that came out of Syria, while Ramadi and Falluja both appear to have had locally led opposition takeover. But ISIL sure isn't know for having strong command and control anyway.

[Block]

It depends on the Kurds. They form the real backbone of experienced Iraqi troops. If the Kurdish leadership is willing to help out the central government, they can probably crush ISIS in relatively short order, but if they want to take advantage of situation like Skimmer mentioned, yeah, it could result in a rather fundamentalist state.

[PainRack]

How long before we get cries that it's Obama fault???

[Phil Skayhan]

It is unlikely you will see Kurds/Peshmerga operating in assistance to the Iraqi government forces anywhere outside of the northern(ish) areas such as Salah al Din. They will not be seen in force entering into Anbar or Diyala Province. I would agree with Skimmer that they might use this situation to advance their move toward independence, or at the very least to wring concessions from Maliki over oil profit-sharing.

Maliki also screwed himself regarding the Sahwa (Awakening/Sons of Iraq). The Awakening was promised pay as well as a fair seat in the government and Maliki quickly reneged on both following the withdrawal of US forces by cutting off the pay and attempting to arrest prominent Sunni members such as the Vice President Hashemi (who fled the county) and Finance Minister Issawi, who was leading the protest site in Ramadi until Maliki ordered the troops in last December to break it up and truly lit the fire we're seeing now in Iraq. The Sunni tribal leaders have no reason to trust Maliki and while they may be no fan of ISIL, they may also see them as a tool to gain their own independence from Baghdad.

Maliki may have also lost what little chance he had of negotiating with the tribal leaders of Fallujah and Ramadi after he began the barrel bombings shortly before the elections in April.

ISIL has also been effective at targeting Sahwa opposition and just last week killed Abu-Risha, the head of the Ramadi Awakening Council.

The situation in Mosul and the surrounding areas will likely remain fluid over the next few weeks. ISIL will retain the advantage primarily because they are mobile and are choosing the times and places to attack Iraqi forces, who primarily are static and, in the rare instance when they stand and fight, have been ineffective.

As to the status of ISIL within Al Qaeda, don't be surprised if the question arises whether Abu-Bakr Al-Baghdadi should be the true leader of AQ over Zawahiri. After all, Baghdadi is being seen as leading mujaheddin forces to victory while Zawahiri... does what exactly?

[Wicked Pilot]

They may have abandon the city as part of a plan to finally split away from Iraq, and join with the now independent Kurds of Syria to finally create a independent Kurdistan. Or not, but well, its entirely possible.

That was my guess too. I've been to Kurdistan, even met their leadership once, they've been building for the day to come to make a separation. Not sure who could blame then

[cosmicalstorm]

I wonder if there will be another wave of Iraqi emigrants going to Europe? It will be interesting to see if both Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and others fall apart and turn into failed states like Somalia.

Here is another problem.

(Al-Akhbar) Two weeks ago, the Turkish government once again intervened in the Syrian crisis. This time was different from anything it had attempted before and the repercussions of which may bring unprecedented catastrophes onto both Iraq and Syria.

Violating international norms, the Turkish government recently cut off the water supply of the Euphrates River completely. In fact, Ankara began to gradually reduce pumping Euphrates water about a month and half ago, then cut if off completely two weeks ago, according to information received by Al-Akhbar.

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/05/turkey-cuts- ... wgwohd2.99

[Lolpah]

How are the relationships between ISIL and the Kurds, though? Could they agree to mutual non-aggression, or are the Kurds simply strong enough to keep the ISIL at bay even if they take control over the rest of Iraq?

[Darth Tanner]

Here is another problem.

Turkey has always controlled the water flow for its own irrigation purposes and flood defence. Most likely this is just gossip sites and locals blaming Turkey by drawing a connection when one likely doesn't exist... they have a treaty requirement to allow a certain amount to flow per year which I'm sure would be picked up by the actual press/UN if they were in breach of - to be honest as the water mostly originates in Turkey and Turkey spent all the money to build the dams to stop downriver countries flooding I have limited sympathy for them.

Either way its not looking good for Iraq... if they can't retake the city once they get their tank forces mobilised I'd imagine their more or less finished as a source of authority.... Turkey won't like a breakaway Kurdish state though, I'm sure they'll send their troops in to keep house from ISIL either in support of Iraqi forces or on their own regardless of any legality issues.

[Lolpah]

They have also seized Tikrit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27800319

Iraq crisis: Militants seize Tikrit after taking Mosul
PM Nouri Maliki blamed the fall of Mosul on a conspiracy

Islamist insurgents in Iraq have seized the city of Tikrit, their second major gain after capturing Mosul on Tuesday, security officials say.

Tikrit, the hometown of former leader Saddam Hussein, lies just 150km (95 miles) north of the capital Baghdad.

Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki has vowed to fight back against the jihadists and punish those in the security forces who have deserted.

The insurgents are from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS).

ISIS, which is also known as ISIL, is an offshoot of al-Qaeda.

It controls considerable territory in eastern Syria and western and central Iraq, in a campaign to set up a Sunni militant enclave straddling the border.

There were also reports on Thursday of fighting further south, in Samarra.

Separately, at least 21 people were killed and 45 hurt by a suicide bomber at a Shia meeting in Baghdad, police said.

'Do not give in'

As many as 500,000 people fled Mosul after the militants attacked the city. The head of the Turkish mission in Mosul and almost 50 consulate officials are being held by the militants, Turkish officials say.

The insurgents moved quickly south, entering the town of Baiji late on Tuesday.

There were heavy clashes reported in Tikrit, with dozens of insurgents attacking security forces near the headquarters of the Salaheddin provincial government in the city centre.

One report said that Governor Ahmad Abdallah had been captured, but this has not been confirmed.

One eyewitness told the BBC that gunmen had entered the city from four different directions and a police station had been set on fire.


ISIS in Iraq

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has 3,000 to 5,000 fighters, and grew out of an al-Qaeda-linked organisation in Iraq
ISIS has exploited the standoff between the Iraqi government and the minority Sunni Arab community, which complains that Shia PM Nouri Maliki is monopolising power
It has already taken over Ramadi and Falluja, but taking over Mosul is a far greater feat than anything the movement has achieved so far, and will send shockwaves throughout the region
The organisation is led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - an obscure figure regarded as a battlefield commander and tactician. He was once the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, one of the groups that later became ISIS.


AFP news agency quoted police and witnesses as saying there was fighting at the northern entrance to Samarra - which is just 110km north of Baghdad.

Earlier Mr Maliki vowed to fight back against the militants. He has asked parliament to declare a state of emergency.

In a live TV address, he said a "conspiracy" had taken place in Mosul and surrounding Ninevah province.

Mr Maliki said he did not want to apportion blame for who had ordered the security personnel "to retreat and cause chaos".

He added: "Those who deserted and did not carry out their jobs properly should be punished but we will honour those who are resisting."

Mr Maliki urged units still fighting to carry on and told the people of Ninevah: "Do not give in. We are with you, the state is with you, the army is with you. Even if the battle is a long one, we will not let you down."

Mr Maliki said "terrorists" had "come to Iraq to implement what they have been doing in Syria".

Civilians crossed the Tigris river to escape the fighting in Mosul, as the BBC's Paul Adams reports

He pledged to "reorganise the armed forces to cleanse Ninevah of the terrorists and those who helped them".

Residents of Mosul said jihadist flags were flying from buildings and that the militants had announced over loudspeakers they had "come to liberate" the city. Many police stations were reported to have been set on fire and hundreds of detainees set free.

ISIS has been informally controlling much of Nineveh for months, and in the past week has attacked other areas of western and northern Iraq, killing scores of people.

The Iraqi government is struggling with a surge in sectarian violence that killed almost 800 people, including 603 civilians, in May alone, according to the UN. Last year, more than 8,860 people died.

[Wicked Pilot]

or are the Kurds simply strong enough to keep the ISIL at bay even if they take control over the rest of Iraq?

The Kurds kept that shit at bay during the occupation, I have no doubt ISIS going into Kurdistan would end in disaster for them. The Peshmerga are a relatively legit force and they're not going to roll over if they see a bunch of fanatical Arabs marching on Erbil.

I'd be more interested to see what happens if Baghdad loses even more control and ISIS tries going into Kirkuk. Wait, or have they already?

[Block]

From what I read on BBC, there was a large Kurdish force waiting just outside Mosul that Maliki decided not to coordinate with for some reason. This could've been crushed easily.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Can I get a source on that? Not doubt it, its just.. If thats true it's beyond fucking stupid.

[Block]

Can I get a source on that? Not doubt it, its just.. If thats true it's beyond fucking stupid.

Yeah, it's actually CNN. http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/11/world/mea ... ?hpt=hp_t1

The Kurdish regional prime minister -- whose ethnic Kurdish forces reach the eastern outskirts of Mosul, capital of Nineveh province -- blamed Iraq's leadership for the city's collapse.

"Over the last two days, we tried extremely hard to establish cooperation with the Iraqi Security Forces in order to protect the city of Mosul. Tragically, Baghdad adopted a position which has prevented the establishment of this cooperation," Nechirvan Barzani said in a statement Tuesday.

[Eulogy]

If that's true, then Maliki needs to be tried for treason. Even if he's just being stupid, he is helping the insurgents win.

[Phil Skayhan]

This is deteriorating faster than I thought it would. Plus, Turkey may try to force NATO's hand: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101743284


Also, I need to correct my mistake: The Kurds do extend down into Diyala Province. Somehow got it in my head they were just in the N-NW portion of Iraq

[AniThyng]

I wonder how anyone who's been injured or lost loved ones or gave up the best years of their lives serving (or just having the misfortune of living in) in Iraq in the course of the past decade must feel over this whole debacle.

[Darth Tanner]

If that's true, then Maliki needs to be tried for treason. Even if he's just being stupid, he is helping the insurgents win.

I wouldn't put it past the Kurds to have said something to the effect of that we will send our troops in to support the defence of the city in exchange for further concessions towards an independent Kurdish state. Lose a city or lose the entire north/north east of your country?

[Gandalf]

I guess this means that we all get to invade again in another few years to reliberate the Iraqi people.

Time to invest in Halliburton!

[Simon_Jester]

If that's true, then Maliki needs to be tried for treason. Even if he's just being stupid, he is helping the insurgents win.

By longstanding precedent, stupidity is NOT treason. There are good reasons for this. Because if you can be put on trial for treason for screwing up, nobody's going to make any meaningful decisions ever. Also, the definition of "screwing up" varies from one political party to another, so the question of exactly who should be on trial for treason varies.

To give an example, suppose that US policy's handling of Iraq, culminating in the present crisis, counted as stupidity bad enough to justify treason charges.

Do we charge Obama for "letting it happen" on his watch?

Do we charge Bush for getting us in there in the first place?

Both?

The only safe answer is 'neither.'

[Borgholio]

Time to invest in Halliburton!

I heard they're changing their name to Weyland Yutani next year.

[Stormin]

If/when the central government completely fails and the Kurds break away officially, I wonder how many non Kurd areas in Iraq will be trying to join up.