Ukraine War Thread

[K. A. Pital]

I already explained the method used to give heavy equipment to the rebels. The vehicles are driven to no mans land in the border crossing. Then the rebels come and take everything that is left.

My apologies Stas, I must've missed it...

Hmm. That could have been another thread. But still, support with trained volunteers and vehicles is undeniable, and lasted for quite a while now. Next stage is regular units (no volunteers). That is what I am wondering about.

[cosmicalstorm]

I think he is going to invade soon. They are just waiting for some opportune moment with a bunch of Russians massacred somewhere in Ukraine. What would happen to Putin if Ukraine kicked the rebels out? That must be bad PR. Especially with the sunk costs so far.

[Thanas]

2. That actual Russian armored columns - like from the regular Russian army - are attacking their troops in Ukraine, which is what Kiev's bullshit artists are saying. Still no evidence for that whatsoever.

Do you think it makes a practical difference if a Russian column of 20 tanks attacks Ukrainian troops or if 20 Russian tank crews just happen to cross the border on foot and then just happen to walk to a column of 20 tanks "just sitting there" completely unattended, mount them and then attack Ukrainian troops?

I also see you still claim Kiev is lying. However, every single one of their claims so far regading Russian troops operating in the Ukraine has been true. I am glad you finally acknowledge that Russians gave the rebels equipment and armed them. Why do you still give Putin the benefit of the doubt?

[cosmicalstorm]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is becoming more and more official. Not that there was any doubt Putin was invading.

[Vympel]

Do you think it makes a practical difference if a Russian column of 20 tanks attacks Ukrainian troops or if 20 Russian tank crews just happen to cross the border on foot and then just happen to walk to a column of 20 tanks "just sitting there" completely unattended, mount them and then attack Ukrainian troops?

Yes, there is a huge practical difference. Leaving aside there's never been a single grouping of 20 rebel tanks seen anywhere, most likely because they simply don't have enough tanks to make such a concentration of force in one place a good idea, the idea that the power of a Russian army formation is purely encapsulated by "20 tanks" is simply wrong. A Russian army formation will always be far more powerful than a rebel formation of equivalent size, because of both its equipment and organisation.

I also see you still claim Kiev is lying. However, every single one of their claims so far regading Russian troops operating in the Ukraine has been true.

That is simply flat false. Not only did I post the other day an article from the Daily Mail pointing out how Kiev's claims were fanciful - a rare admission (as opposed to ignoring the total lack of evidence and moving on, as normal) - Kiev has been claiming up and down all sorts of implausible, evidence free claims about Russian involvement in the fighting in the east for months and months on end. None of those claims were ever substantiated. One need only refer to nonsense like "oh, a big Russian column entered our territory, and we destroyed it, but no we don't have a single photo of our glorious victory, cameras dont exist where Russian columns are" to know that.

This absurd statement you just made (that every single one of their claims is true) can only be based on lack of knowledge of the sheer volume of BS emananting from Kiev on a weekly basis - or alternately, a backdating of what is clearly a recent escalation of the conflict (given its clear that Kiev has now suffered a clear military reversal) to much earlier.

I am glad you finally acknowledge that Russians gave the rebels equipment and armed them.

When some actual evidence appears that might indicate a fact (recent pictures of a late 1980s T-72B w/ Kontakts-V in E. Ukraine, for example - something which more likely came from Russia than Ukraine), I acknowledge it, as opposed to being guided by evidence free animus.

Why do you still give Putin the benefit of the doubt?

Its not about Putin. Its recognition of the fact that Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world and necessarily no more credible in its BS than Russia. Your approach throughout has been apparently to simply believe whatever you're told by Kiev's mouthpieces and partisan backers, irrespective of whether any evidence exists to support it.

[Thanas]

Its not about Putin. Its recognition of the fact that Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world and necessarily no more credible in its BS than Russia. Your approach throughout has been apparently to simply believe whatever you're told by Kiev's mouthpieces and partisan backers, irrespective of whether any evidence exists to support it.

Yeah, right, once again we go down on that route. Let me explain to you how this will go based on any of the other 33 times you tried to pull this one:

"THANAS IS NAZI AND LOVES KIEV NAZIS"
"VYMPEL IS FASCIST AND VYMPEL LOVES PUTIN"
We then eventually agree that you don't believe invasion is warranted and I don't believe Kiev are good guys.

There.

Now next time maybe you can try not to pull this strawman, or is your memory capacity so low?

Meanwhile, I remain contend in that every accusation of Kiev has eventually been proven right. I have no doubt the recent claims of a Russian invasion will be the same.

[K. A. Pital]

I remain contend in that every accusation of Kiev has eventually been proven right

They cried 'wolf' (Russian invasion) many times before. If it happens now, it may very well be true, but it does not make their prior claims true somehow, does it?

[Mange]

I think he is going to invade soon. They are just waiting for some opportune moment with a bunch of Russians massacred somewhere in Ukraine. What would happen to Putin if Ukraine kicked the rebels out? That must be bad PR. Especially with the sunk costs so far.

I doubt there'll be a massive invasion. The Putin regime is probably hoping to create conditions in which Kiev must submit to terms favourable to Russia.

[UnderAGreySky]

I think he is going to invade soon. They are just waiting for some opportune moment with a bunch of Russians massacred somewhere in Ukraine. What would happen to Putin if Ukraine kicked the rebels out? That must be bad PR. Especially with the sunk costs so far.

I doubt there'll be a massive invasion. The Putin regime is probably hoping to create conditions in which Kiev must submit to terms favourable to Russia.

So, just the tip then?

[Thanas]

The scale of the invasion has become a lot clearer:

Russia has up to 100 battle tanks fighting in Ukraine, UK believes
Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant tells UN there are more than 1,000 Russian troops helping separatists in eastern Ukraine

Britain believes that nearly 180 Russian battle tanks or armoured personnel carriers are deployed with Ukrainian separatists in the east of the country, supported by more than 1,000 regular Russian troops.

Government sources have accused Moscow of "completely disregarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a neighbour" after an intelligence estimate of the weaponry in Ukraine and of direct shelling of Kiev's forces from Russia.

The estimate of Russian weaponry was outlined by Sir Mark Lyall Grant, the British ambassador to the UN, who told the security council that Moscow had sent:

• 1,000 regular Russian troops
• Up to 100 main battle tanks
• 80 armoured personnel carriers
• 100 shoulder-launched missile weapons
• 500 anti-tank weapons
• More than 100 artillery pieces

A government source said: "We are clear that formed units of the Russian armed forces are now directly engaged in fighting inside Ukraine. We believe that the units consist of well over 1,000 regular Russian troops equipped with armoured vehicles, artillery and air defence systems.

"We think that there are over 1,000 Russian troops fighting as part of the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. This is the arsenal we assess the separatists have. We also believe that Russia has shelled Ukrainian territory.

"In just over five days, from 14-19 August, we think Ukrainian armed forces were fired on from positions inside Russian territory on at least 21 separate occasions. This is further provocative action by Russia completely disregarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a neighbour."

David Cameron will use the figures to urge fellow EU leaders at a summit in Brussels on Saturday to toughen sanctions against Russia.

There are also dozens of secret funerals of Russian soldiers killed in the war taking place now.

[K. A. Pital]

I think he is going to invade soon. They are just waiting for some opportune moment with a bunch of Russians massacred somewhere in Ukraine. What would happen to Putin if Ukraine kicked the rebels out? That must be bad PR. Especially with the sunk costs so far.

I doubt there'll be a massive invasion. The Putin regime is probably hoping to create conditions in which Kiev must submit to terms favourable to Russia.

Yeah, I think flooding the region with 'volunteers' (which are, effectively, soldiers on paid vacation who claim to 'volunteer') is the best tactic for Putin. I think he isn't dumber than myself, so there will not be an 'official invasion'. Such things are best left until the dust settles... like in Crimea. Admitting your troops were there after the victory is much easier than before. The lessons are less applicable here, but still relevant.

[Welf]

Looks like Ukraine is the number one vacation spot for Russian soldiers, or you know, it's an actual invasion:

If it was an "actual" invasion, the Russians would already be in Kiev. Ukraine's armed forces would utterly collapse. You've got two different claims here:

1. That Russian servicemen (current and ex) are fighting with rebel formations in Ukraine. Almost certainly true, and they're certainly being supplied with weapons that give Russia (mostly) plausible deniability as to their arming the rebels.

2. That actual Russian armored columns - like from the regular Russian army - are attacking their troops in Ukraine, which is what Kiev's bullshit artists are saying. Still no evidence for that whatsoever.

I guess that means the Vietnam war wasn't a war because the USA didn't really try? But seriously, if there are active duty members fighting in a foreign country and a government doesn't send out it's MP it's an invasion. Maybe a small scale one, but an invasion.

[cosmicalstorm]

Battles are taking place close to the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia. This could be bad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhia ... ower_Plant

[The Romulan Republic]

This may sound like wild speculation and I hope it is, but if a nuclear plant is damaged and it causes a release of radioactive material/radiation, could that be taken as whoever damaged it committing a nuclear attack and provoke retaliation in kind?

[madd0ct0r]

could it be taken as? possibly, if you are a suicidal lunatic.

Would it be taken as? no, short of troops barricading themselves in the plant and threatening to blow it up unless the others retreat. That would come under chemical weapons of the geneva convention I suspect.

[Mange]

The Ukrainians claims to have captured a T-72B3 tank (a T-72 variant that was introduced in Russian service late last year): Twitter

[Thanas]

Meanwhile, those who claimed the Russian parliament was better because their MPs weren't getting trashed by thugs, can climb of that horse now. According to swiss news, Lew Schlossberg has been beaten for daring to question why Russian soldiers were getting buried in secret.
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ausland/eur ... y/29181254

[K. A. Pital]

I wonder why they didn't crucify him, the Orthodox Taliban they are.

[Irbis]

The scale of the invasion has become a lot clearer

No, it did not. The numbers are all, without exception, copy/paste of unverified Ukrainian drivel.

Why drivel? Let's take a look at these numbers. "Up to 100" tanks. Funnily enough, "zero" is also up to 100. Tanks of which no photos exist, save for individual, impossible to place singular tanks. 100 tanks is enough to easily show up on NATO satellite photos, where are they?

Second, the numbers just don't add up. 1,000 regular Russian troops, up to 100 main battle tanks, 80 armoured personnel carriers, more than 100 artillery pieces. 1000 people isn't even enough to crew that many vehicles. Ok, let's be generous and assume it's extra ground troops. The problem? It still doesn't add up, Russians have 3 armoured divisions and all are accounted for, away from Ukraine. So, let's assume it's motorized division. Except, they don't have as many vehicles. 100 tanks and 100 artillery pieces is more than 2 Russian motorized divisions - but these would have 25.000 soldiers to properly support and protect these tanks.

So, what Ukrainians say, Russia sent 2 divisions but supported with merely 1/25 of soldiers they should have, despite soldiers being easier to smuggle through border and more deniable than 100 tanks? Repeating armoured column tactic they abandoned after 1994, unseen for over 20 years, to invade a country with tens of thousands of portable anti-tank missiles? What? This doesn't even make one ounce of fucking sense. Name 'Münchausen' comes to mind.

I don't deny that there are Russians in Ukraine. Funnily enough, number I posted a few posts ago where I estimated people fighting on Russia's orders to be up to 20% of rebels turned out to be too generous. For Ukrainians. When Polish press Friday started harping '400 to 800 Russian soldiers, we told you so, only months late!' I did quick calculation and by Ukrainian numbers it's 7 to 14% of rebel numbers. Sorry, it's still far from any significant support. Yes, it's worrying, but it's no state/state war unlike the image propaganda is trying to paint.

Also, I like how it mentions '100 shoulder-launched missile weapons' in the same breath as tanks. Maybe in West, with its big, expensive, guided rockets it would be a big deal, but in this conflict, where with 95% certainty it means 'RPG-7' it's about as big deal as mentioning rebels have 100 AKs...

There are also dozens of secret funerals of Russian soldiers killed in the war taking place now.

According to you, 2 + 1 (literally: three) is dozens?

If you read it more carefully, '400' number is purely all accidents reported by Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers and it's similar every year. This includes everything, even drunk soldiers getting in a fight while on leave or equipment malfunction.

Meanwhile, those who claimed the Russian parliament was better because their MPs weren't getting trashed by thugs, can climb of that horse now.

Oh, wait, I though Russia is dictature and opposition doesn't exist there. Your own words.

Funny that, half of the news you post to discredit Russia includes things that don't exist according to other half. Journalist resigning in protest? Wait, there exists free enough press in Russia? NGO publishing numbers of accidents in Russian Army - wait, there are NGOs? That at once dare to criticize Putin and army? Independent politicians? Asking questions on highest level? Criticizing publishers? Putin must have invented these, West press can't be wrong!

Such dictature, you can find more information on state's dirty laundry on the Russian net than you can do in say 'free' UK, USA, or other NATO states. Yes, even Poland.

[K. A. Pital]

Such dictature, you can find more information on state's dirty laundry on the Russian net than you can do in say 'free' UK, USA, or other NATO states. Yes, even Poland.

Um, Irbis. It is a dictatorship. You can find lots of information on dirty laundry, but it will do you no good (just as vain talk and endless unearthed misdeeds change nothing in the US). Try to actively promote it and you will get severely beaten. The next time you do it, you will seriously wonder why you're even caring to do so.

Not that the West is much better; they are slightly better, people are not found with broken heads in the nearest dump the moment they actively start throwing dirt at the government (and there is ample dirt to be found everywhere). But that is, still, a huge improvement.

So before you ridicule Russia's description as a dictatorship, try being radically opposed to the Russian government for a while...

[Welf]

Not that the West is much better; they are slightly better, people are not found with broken heads in the nearest dump the moment they actively start throwing dirt at the government (and there is ample dirt to be found everywhere). But that is, still, a huge improvement.

How can the west be only slightly better if there is a huge improvement?

[Irbis]

Personally if that is it, a worse time could hardly be chosen...

Yes. Frankly, I don't see what they would gain by that, if they were to intervene they would do that when rebels held far west line, including Slowiansk and Mariupol. Right now, the only possible motive would be to force a ceasefire, but it doesn't seem likely. Right wing Ukrainian politicians have turned up jingoistic rhetoric and are now talking about forced draft and using human wave tactics to bury Russians with bodies...

NATO has released satellite pictures of what it claims shows Russian forces (including self-propelled howitzers) inside Ukraine: Twitter

No, look again. These are trucks. If there is 'self propelled artillery' present, it's Grad, not howitzers. I don't see anything resembling tank or armoured howitzer on these photos.

Before we see such photo showing column of these 'up to 100' tanks, I'd divide every number Ukrainians announce by at least 10.

Um, Irbis. It is a dictatorship. You can find lots of information on dirty laundry, but it will do you no good (just as vain talk and endless unearthed misdeeds change nothing in the US). Try to actively promote it and you will get severely beaten. The next time you do it, you will seriously wonder why you're even caring to do so.

I'd classify Russia as authoritarianism at best. It's no dictature, at least not in classical understanding of this word. Is it free country? Certainly not, but hypocrisy of the Western press praising much worse dictatures like they were any better is grating.

I'd like to see people like Alexei Navalny in Belarus or Ukraine - but there, they would far better chance of not being heard at all or being disappeared than in Russia. Even Polish Russophobic journalists agree with that, which is no small feat seeing they consider Quatar or Saudis more free than Russia.

As for being opposed to it, frankly, Duck brothers tried to do something similar in Poland. You won't find even one of my posts agreeing with anything they did, I was opposed to pretty much their every move. Thankfully, EU regulations mostly stopped them before they managed to do any permanent harm, but their 3 year rule was scary nonetheless. Poles saw attempts at creating police state firsthand and you don't need to tell me to oppose that.

But the sad part is, all the lies about Russia erode even the barrier that existed once. Today, Kaczynski could do anything, just mask it as anti-Russian policy, and EU wouldn't even squeak. Orban already is becoming mini-Putin - do you hear any protests from EU, much less what happened under Haider? Lukashenko already warms relations with EU on wave of anti-Russian policy - these are all signs of approval for same or worse disease than what Russia has, so forgive me I am more opposed to what I see as greater threat. I am supporting what worked in Poland against similar ideology, not wishful thinking.

Even you, who say we should oppose Putin, saw the huge jumps in popularity Putin had in recent months, when he could show real anti-Russian, not just anti-Putin sentiment abroad. This is not the way to remove him, in fact, this just hands him carte blanche. If a policy doesn't work, sane person would stop and reconsider it, not pile on extra propaganda to powder the ugly picture.

How can the west be only slightly better if there is a huge improvement?

There is none. In Russia, they won't print you if politicians don't like you, in West, they won't print you if press owners don't like you. Remind me, when you saw real left wing ideas in popular press, outside of some barely relevant exceptions?

Sure, you can say there are more independent journals in the West, but on average, Russian internet is much less regulated and more free from what I saw. Some things I noticed there would never fly in say USA or EU.

[Vympel]

Yeah, right, once again we go down on that route. Let me explain to you how this will go based on any of the other 33 times you tried to pull this one:

"THANAS IS NAZI AND LOVES KIEV NAZIS"
"VYMPEL IS FASCIST AND VYMPEL LOVES PUTIN"
We then eventually agree that you don't believe invasion is warranted and I don't believe Kiev are good guys.

There.

Now next time maybe you can try not to pull this strawman, or is your memory capacity so low?

What the fuck are you talking about? Those are just heinous fucking lies. I've never called you a fucking Nazi. Are you fucking on drugs? My post above is simply saying you're fucking credulous and far too willing to believe the obvious, Russia-style made up shit that comes out of Kiev irrespective of what the evidence does or does not say.

Are you honestly so fucking stupid that you can't tell the difference between "Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world [and therefore anyone who believes what their government says about this war - where truth is the first casualtiy - in the absence of evidence is an idiot] and "you love Nazis"?

What the fuck is wrong with you? Something about this Ukraine thing has broken your brain or something.

Jesus Christ.

Meanwhile, I remain contend in that every accusation of Kiev has eventually been proven right. I have no doubt the recent claims of a Russian invasion will be the same.

Any comment on the rest of my post? Like where Ukraine's glorious victory over the mythical Russian column from the other week is, by the way, or have we just forgotten about that now, and you're still going to insist, up and down left and right that everything Kiev says must be correct, without even a fucking photo to go along with it, and no matter how many times they say stupid shit that just falls down the memory hole without ever being proven, or which was so absurd to begin with that no one believed it at all, like the previously mentioned time that they claimed the Russians must've bombed civilians in Donetsk to make Kiev look bad?

Oh hey: CNN shitting on Ukraine's claims re a marauding Russian armyl near Mariupol.

You can't just "maintain and contend in that every accusation of Kiev has eventually been proven right" when you've been directly confronted with accusations that have never been substantiated, when they easily could have been and it serves no purpose not to do so. Well you can, but you look really stupid doing it, just eagerly swallowing propaganda that you want to believe and ignoring rebuttals that you can't respond to.

If this conflict continues without resolution, this small scale / slow motion Russian escalation will continue to increase until the Russian Army involves itself openly and in legitimately large numbers - I indicated pages ago that Putin wouldn't tolerate a complete defeat of the rebels and the risk was there that he would act to prevent it, to save face. I suppose you could then say that this would mean that Kiev was 'proven' right, though it would be highly dishonest to backdate such an event to a much earlier stage of the conflict. Of course by then, Kiev will be claiming that the Red Army has popped out of a timewarp from 1964 and is headed for the Channel.

[K. A. Pital]

Not that the West is much better; they are slightly better, people are not found with broken heads in the nearest dump the moment they actively start throwing dirt at the government (and there is ample dirt to be found everywhere). But that is, still, a huge improvement.

How can the west be only slightly better if there is a huge improvement?

A huge improvement for those on the inside, but no improvement for those outside.

[Mange]

NATO has released satellite pictures of what it claims shows Russian forces (including self-propelled howitzers) inside Ukraine: Twitter

No, look again. These are trucks. If there is 'self propelled artillery' present, it's Grad, not howitzers. I don't see anything resembling tank or armoured howitzer on these photos.

Yes, there are indeed trucks (some of which with appears to be towed artillery) amongst the vehicles in the convoy, but there are other vehicles which are plainly something similar to 2S19 self-propelled artillery (which is especially clear in the blown-up part of the hi-resolution picture on the lower left): NATO

As for "100 tanks is enough to easily show up on NATO satellite photos". Regardless of the "100 tanks", do you really for a second think that NATO would reveal their satellite intelligence gathering capabilities in the open? Of course not! That's why image data from commercial satellites are shown.

On a side-note... Something I read got me wondering. Despite the failure of the far-right presidential candidates in the Ukrainian presidential election (both candidates received less than two percent of the votes together), some people are still harping on the Ukrainian government as being "far right" and "neo-nazi". Well, there's a conference, "Russia, Ukraine, Novorossiya: Global Problems and Challenges", taking place in the Russian-occupied Crimea this weekend and which several separatist leaders (including Borodai) are attending. The conference is also attended by party leaders or representatives from European political parties such as Communautaire National-Européen, Jobbik, Samoobrona Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej, Ataka and others. What do you call that?