Ukraine War Thread

[K. A. Pital]

Same on Donetsk airport, I heard.

[Irbis]

Will get right on that as soon as you pay me the money necessary to have a satellite dedicated to that problem.

*sigh*

There are so many organizations and countries opposed to Russia in this, all of them with intelligence services, some with spy satellites, too, that you'd expect leak of photos of these hundreds of tanks by now. Unless you're postulating whole NATO is covering for Putin and doesn't want to publish concrete proof saying "hey, we are right side this time, honest"?

Meh. It's almost impossible to hold ground for long periods of time with just armor.

As Russians themselves learned 20 years ago. That is, why, by the way, Ukrainian numbers look so laughable. No infantry support, inflating counts of most scary things on list, while not caring it just doesn't make sense or doesn't look any real military unit OoB. It's as realistic as historian insisting Roman legion used in battle consisted of 200 onagers and 100 foot soldiers.

Even the seemingly real number, 1000 men, doesn't differentiate between Russian mercenaries and troopers sent on behalf of government. It's just bunched up to make it look big and scary. So, sorry for my scepticism, wake me up when any side finally says unadulterated truth for once.

[cosmicalstorm]

Ukraine will abandon Donbass and focus on defending the rest of the country against the Russian invasion.

[Vympel]

If true, good. I don't see why DNR/LPR/Novorossiya forces would move out of the Donbass, which hopefully means the conflict stops, even if only temporarily.

Donetsk and Lugansk republics seek to remain part of Ukraine with special status, according to the rebel representative in Belarus during the ongoing peace talks

“The president, government and [parliament] Verkhovna Rada should accept… decrees granting immediate recovery from the humanitarian catastrophe, acknowledging the special status of the territories under the control of the People’s Republics, creating conditions - first of all stopping the ‘anti-terror’ operations - for free elections of local authorities and MPs,” the document with the republics' position reads.

The document also calls on Kiev to guarantee “the right to use the Russian language at an official level on the territories of the People’s Republics.”

[Block]

Will get right on that as soon as you pay me the money necessary to have a satellite dedicated to that problem.

*sigh*

There are so many organizations and countries opposed to Russia in this, all of them with intelligence services, some with spy satellites, too, that you'd expect leak of photos of these hundreds of tanks by now. Unless you're postulating whole NATO is covering for Putin and doesn't want to publish concrete proof saying "hey, we are right side this time, honest"?

Meh. It's almost impossible to hold ground for long periods of time with just armor.

As Russians themselves learned 20 years ago. That is, why, by the way, Ukrainian numbers look so laughable. No infantry support, inflating counts of most scary things on list, while not caring it just doesn't make sense or doesn't look any real military unit OoB. It's as realistic as historian insisting Roman legion used in battle consisted of 200 onagers and 100 foot soldiers.

Even the seemingly real number, 1000 men, doesn't differentiate between Russian mercenaries and troopers sent on behalf of government. It's just bunched up to make it look big and scary. So, sorry for my scepticism, wake me up when any side finally says unadulterated truth for once.

I've seen the estimate of Russian regulars "on leave" range up to 4000.

[Vympel]

Another entry in "Kiev's spokespeople make claims they can't substantiate"

“Lugansk. We are retreating. Long convoys of tanks, APCs and lorries full of run-down and exhausted soldiers are going past. Black from soot and dusty faces. Dried blood on their bullet-proof vests. The men have endured a battle with a battalion of new Russian T-90 tanks,” Yuri Kasyanov, a Ukrainian activist delivering supplies to the frontline wrote on Facebook.

Apparently these T-90s have cloaking devices?

[cosmicalstorm]

I'm sure they are lying and hyping, I would have done the same thing.

But I just have this weird memory of Putin announcing that he did annex Crimea a few months after he... well... annexed it.

So once that part of Ukraine becomes an outright part of Russia or some kind of weird subservient independent Novorossiya state.

What will you tell us then Vympel?

I feel the need to add that I'm not weirded out by Putin restoring Russian super-power status. I'm no Rus-hater. I do hate fake shit like the yellow-cake story though. And this "no russian invasion even though russian invasion" thing just reeks of it.

[K. A. Pital]

I'm sure they are lying and hyping, I would have done the same thing.

But I just have this weird memory of Putin announcing that he did annex Crimea a few months after he... well... annexed it.

The important part is not the annexing itself but announcing that Russian troops were there. After first denying it.

[Vympel]

I'm sure they are lying and hyping, I would have done the same thing.

But I just have this weird memory of Putin announcing that he did annex Crimea a few months after he... well... annexed it.

So once that part of Ukraine becomes an outright part of Russia or some kind of weird subservient independent Novorossiya state.

What will you tell us then Vympel?

I feel the need to add that I'm not weirded out by Putin restoring Russian super-power status. I'm no Rus-hater. I do hate fake shit like the yellow-cake story though. And this "no russian invasion even though russian invasion" thing just reeks of it.

Russia has no apparent interest in making Donetsk and Lugansk an outright part of Russia or a Novorossiya vassal state. That's why the rebel leaders are saying - as I noted - they still want to be part of Ukraine, but with autonomy. This makes sense, since if Russia carves off that part of Ukraine, it loses influence in the rest.

I'm not sure what you mean by "what will you tell us then" - as if I have a vested interest in the Ukrainians lying and the Russians telling the truth. I've repeatedly said the Russians have lied about various things. Its still important to call out lying when you see it, especially about something as important as the scale of Russian military intervention and all the alarmist rhetoric that goes with it.

In that regard, I note that the Russians are deploying their latest upgrade of the T-72B, the T-72B3 (of which there are several hundred in Russian service, upgrade continuing) in Ukraine. Two were lost in the conflict and photographed the other day:





We can identify them as T-72B3 tanks due to the large housing for the new gunner's thermal sight.

This probably means the Russians don't see any need to restrain themselves in what they arm the rebels with anymore - everyone knows that the T-72B3 is only deployed by Russia and they probably deem its superior fire control systems and night-fighting ability (better than anything Ukraine has) of more value to the fight than hiding their escalated involvement is worth.

[Mange]

If true, good. I don't see why DNR/LPR/Novorossiya forces would move out of the Donbass, which hopefully means the conflict stops, even if only temporarily.

Donetsk and Lugansk republics seek to remain part of Ukraine with special status, according to the rebel representative in Belarus during the ongoing peace talks

“The president, government and [parliament] Verkhovna Rada should accept… decrees granting immediate recovery from the humanitarian catastrophe, acknowledging the special status of the territories under the control of the People’s Republics, creating conditions - first of all stopping the ‘anti-terror’ operations - for free elections of local authorities and MPs,” the document with the republics' position reads.

The document also calls on Kiev to guarantee “the right to use the Russian language at an official level on the territories of the People’s Republics.”

I also felt positive about it when I read this yesterday evening. However, the "PM" of the "People's Republic of Donetsk", Alexander Zakharchenko, said later during the evening that the representative (Purgin) didn't say that and that he wasn't authorized to make such a declaration and that they won't remain with Ukraine: BFM (via Google Translate)

[Vympel]

I also felt positive about it when I read this yesterday evening. However, the "PM" of the "People's Republic of Donetsk", Alexander Zakharchenko, said later during the evening that the representative (Purgin) didn't say that and that he wasn't authorized to make such a declaration and that they won't remain with Ukraine: BFM (via Google Translate)

Fuck's sake.

[Mange]

Finnish journalists working for the well-respected Finnish paper Helsingin Sanomat, claims to have encountered Russian T-72BM/BV tanks and Russian troops (including a Russian commander who gave his name as "Molot", or "The Hammer") inside Ukraine. My Finnish is rusty and Google Translate doesn't seem to be able to translate the page, but if anyone more versed in Finnish than me could look at it... Helsingin Sanomat

[Thanas]

Meanwhile, more and more Russians are protesting against the war, with depressingly predictable results of getting arrested by the police:

http://thespeaker.co/russians-protestin ... ice-video/

[Tiriol]

Finnish journalists working for the well-respected Finnish paper Helsingin Sanomat, claims to have encountered Russian T-72BM/BV tanks and Russian troops (including a Russian commander who gave his name as "Molot", or "The Hammer") inside Ukraine. My Finnish is rusty and Google Translate doesn't seem to be able to translate the page, but if anyone more versed in Finnish than me could look at it... Helsingin Sanomat

Loose translation:

The rebels planning to conquer Mariupol have received both manpower and war material from Russia to support them. The reporters Petteri Tuohinen and Kalle Koponen from Helsingin Sanomat who are stationed there received evidence of Russian presence on Tuesday when they encountered rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine in Markine four kilometers from Russian border.

HS (Helsingin Sanomat) saw T-72 type tanks in Markine. They were equipped with reactive armour which can be seen outside the tank.

The tanks in question might be Russian T-72BM tanks, which are not known to be sold by Russia to anyone.

Helsingin Sanomat was prevented from photographing the tanks by armed soldiers/with armed threats.

"We were very close to Russian border when we saw two tanks of the new T-72 model near an old collective farm", Petteri Tuohinen reports. "The tanks were equipped with reactive armour."

Near the border the reporters also encountered Russian soldiers. They also met their commander who named himself only as Molot - the Hammer - and his accent was Russian. There were Russian soldiers and Ukrainian rebels in mixed groups present.

"It was very clear that there were two different types of people there", Kalle Koponen says. "The Russians were well-equipped and the rebels had worse equipment."

Currently the frontline is located somewhere near the village of Markine, which itself is about 50 kilometers north-east of Mariupol. Rebel general has previously stated that the rebels aim to take the harbor city.

HS reporters could not confirm this, but the troops present were clearly in a state of readiness.

"Take a guess if they wanted to tell us their intentions", Tuohinen says. "We were sent walking straight back to where we came with guns pointed at us."

"The troops seemed really aggressive and ready for an assault", he adds.

The article also clarifies that the tanks could not be confirmed to be T-72BM or T-72BV types.

Sorry for the somewhat lacking translation, I'm really tired right now. The article has some pictures etc. which I did not see fit to paste here.

[Vympel]

Thanks for the translation. Its a small point, but "T-72BM" is an informal designation that's widely used in the West, but not really in the Russian military. T-72Bs with Kontakts light ERA or Kontakts-V heavy ERA were never distinguished by different designations, though they are sometimes erroneously called T-72BV and T-72BM respectively by Western sources. The Finnish author seems to know enough to be talking about Kontakt-V equipped tanks.

[K. A. Pital]

The separatist leader admitted that Russian soldiers on paid leave are fighting for the DNR. Cannot keep the cat in the back for too long.

[cosmicalstorm]

[Thanas]

More evidence of Russian warcrimes:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/vid ... 21568.html
Video follows a police force which volunteered to defend their country.
In this video you can see:
a) The seperatists agreeing to let wounded pass and then attacking the convoy with the wounded (11:05 onwards)
b) Beating of prisoners by seperatists (12:27 onwards).

[Vympel]

So France has 'suspended' the transfer of the first Mistral helo carrier, but is saying the contract is still in force. A principled stand against Russian aggression - get all the benefits of cancelling the sale while leaving the door open to go through with it

[fgalkin]

More evidence of Russian warcrimes:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/vid ... 21568.html
Video follows a police force which volunteered to defend their country.
In this video you can see:
a) The seperatists agreeing to let wounded pass and then attacking the convoy with the wounded (11:05 onwards)
b) Beating of prisoners by seperatists (12:27 onwards).

What do you call this, then?

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/02/world ... ne-crisis/

Donetsk, Ukraine (CNN) -- In the city of Donetsk, the devastation wrought by weeks of fighting between pro-Russia rebels and Ukrainian forces is all too apparent.

And as the civilians caught in the crossfire sweep up the debris of their homes and livelihoods, they are hardened against a president they say is killing his own people.

Alexander Omelyavenko, a Donetsk resident, told CNN, "We are Ukrainian but they kill us, so we probably need our own country. Because these people in Kiev, they are not brothers for us."

Another resident, Victoria Khrushova, wiped away tears as she told how her family had been forced to hide from the shelling in cellars.

"We live underground. It was so hard for two weeks -- especially 27th, 28th, 29th -- but only today is quiet," she said.

The husband of a 34-year-old woman killed outside a block of flats last Wednesday wouldn't talk to CNN, saying he was in shock. He made it down to the cellar with their small child but she simply didn't have time. A 50-year-old woman was killed with his wife.

It's a story which repeats itself over and over in dozens of apartment blocks, with civilians being killed by the constant shelling around Donetsk. Windows are shattered, holes blasted in walls and blackened rafters which once supported the roofs of homes stand in bleak outline against the sky.

The victims are the human face of a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding even as diplomatic efforts to curb the fighting plow on.

The United Nations' refugee agency, UNHCR, said Tuesday that the number of people displaced in Ukraine by the fighting, particularly around Donetsk and Luhansk, had more than doubled in less than a month.

While an estimated 117,000 had fled their homes as of August 5, the agency puts the number displaced as of September 1 at 260,000.

UNHCR believes the actual number displaced is higher, as many are staying with families and friends and choose not to register with the authorities. Nearly 95% of those forced from their homes are from eastern Ukraine and most remain in the region, its report said.

'Be human... Stop this war'

Donetsk, once-thriving, is now half-empty, shop fronts shattered and its railway station bombed.

Its trauma hospital is filled with the civilian wounded who were unable to reach safety in time as the shells rained down.

Medical teams treat market traders with shrapnel embedded in their legs or the broken limbs of pensioners too old or sick to run.

"There was one war and this is the second war. I was born in 1940 in World War II and I will probably die before this war is over," said elderly resident Valentina Sergeyevna.

Valentina Popova, in the ward next door, has lost her leg and her arm to indiscriminate artillery shells.

Switching to the Ukrainian language, she made a heartrending plea to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

"We used to dance, sing, do everything in Ukrainian. Poroshenko, Mr. Poroshenko -- please listen to us. Why don't you understand your people? Be a man. Be human. Please stop your aggression. Stop this war."

Russia accuses the Ukrainian government of precipitating the humanitarian crisis by pursuing its campaign to regain territory seized by the rebels.

Meanwhile, Poroshenko and some Western allies have said thousands of Russian troops are in his nation's east, helping the separatists.

NATO members meeting this week in Wales are expected to create "a very high-readiness force" to deal with Russian aggression in Ukraine and other international conflicts, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Monday.

European Union leaders are expected to decide on further sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine by Friday, Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini said Tuesday.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Thanas]

What do you call this, then?

Urban warfare at the least, possibly war crimes. Why?

[Vympel]

Pretty much the most reasonable article the NYT has done on this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/opini ... .html?_r=1

The progress of the conflict in eastern Ukraine is utterly predictable. Since the rebellion began with Russian backing five months ago, it’s been obvious that the Kremlin would not allow the rebels to be crushed by force. So deeply is President Vladimir Putin’s prestige invested in his Ukrainian strategy, and in the image of Russian strength, that to allow a Ukrainian military victory would threaten the stability and even the existence of his own regime.

As many observers have been writing from the start of this conflict, there was never a chance of the Ukrainian government being able to win militarily. Russia has demonstrated an ability to send in whatever lightly disguised forces are necessary to fight the Ukrainian Army to a standstill. For the West to encourage Kiev to seek a military victory — as its governments seem to have been doing — could only lead to inevitable defeat. If confirmed, the reported Ukrainian moves toward an agreement with Moscow on a cease-fire with the rebels are a logical step.

For even if the West were to provide Kiev with enough military aid to give a real chance of crushing the rebels, this would also create a real chance of a full-scale Russian invasion. Such an invasion could only be stopped by the introduction of a Western army — something which is simply not a possibility. A Russian invasion would be a disaster for both Ukraine and Russia — and a disastrous humiliation for NATO and the West.

The toughness of Russia’s stance does not stem from Mr. Putin’s calculations alone. It is also due to the fact that a great many ordinary Russians, including those who are basically pro-Western and anti-Putin, regard American support for the overthrow of a democratically elected (albeit repulsive) government in Kiev last winter as utterly outrageous and a threat to vital Russian interests. Mr. Putin’s popularity soared as a result of his stance on Ukraine, and it shows no sign of declining. As Thomas Graham of Kissinger Associates has written, Russia cares about what happens in Ukraine much more than the West does — for reasons which should be apparent to anyone who has spent 10 minutes studying Russian and Ukrainian history.

At the same time, the Kremlin remains relatively cautious — were it not so, the Russian Army would be in Kharkov and Odessa by now. Moscow did nothing after the crackdown on pro-Russian demonstrators elsewhere in eastern and southern Ukraine (including the killing of more than 40 in Odessa) and accepted control of those areas by Kiev.

Moscow also accepted as legitimate the election of Petro Poroshenko as president, abandoning its support for former President Viktor Yanukovych. It should be recognized therefore that in seeking de jure control of Crimea and decisive informal influence over the Donbass region, the Kremlin has drastically scaled back its hopes from where they stood a year ago, when Moscow wanted to bring the whole of Ukraine into a Russian-dominated bloc, and even from its initial response to the revolt in Kiev. This allows the possibility of a political solution, which can only consist of a special autonomous status for the Donbass region within Ukraine.

The West should take advantage of any cease-fire efforts to craft and strongly advocate this solution, and should then negotiate the precise terms with Kiev and Moscow. Legally and morally, there can be no Western objection to this — it is after all the solution that the West has put forward to end conflicts in many parts of the world. In another former Soviet territory, Nagorno-Karabakh, the West went further and proposed the loosest form of confederation with Azerbaijan. This solution corresponds to history and local reality; for the Donbass is in fact a region with its own culture and traditions.

To separate the Donbass in this way while preserving the principle of Ukrainian territorial integrity would allow the West to help in developing and consolidating the rest of Ukraine without constant disturbances in the East. This would open the possibility — albeit a long way in the future — of Ukraine joining the European Union; and if the people of the Donbass region at that point choose to secede and lose the benefits of European Union membership — well, so much the worse for them.

An objection raised to this solution has been that, in the shorter term, it would give the Donbass region a veto over Ukraine’s NATO membership. But since NATO obviously has no intention whatsoever of fighting to defend Ukraine, to offer it membership in the alliance would be morally and geopolitically criminal.

The choice today is not between a united Ukraine fully in the Western camp, or a Ukraine which has lost part of its territory to Russia. As recent military developments have demonstrated, the first outcome is simply not going to happen. The choice is between a Ukraine with an autonomous Donbass region, along with a real chance of developing the country’s democracy and economy in a Western direction, or a Ukraine which will be mired in a half-frozen conflict that will undermine all hopes of progress. The way out of this disaster is obvious — if only Western governments have the statesmanship and courage to take it.

[Block]

That's an editorial, not an article. Articles are news, editorials are merely opinion essays and have a much lower fact threshold for publication.

[Vympel]

That's an editorial, not an article. Articles are news, editorials are merely opinion essays and have a much lower fact threshold for publication.

Of course its an editorial, and that's a nitpick. Worse, there's not a single definition of "article" I can find that says an article must be "news" and not "opinion". Its therefore perfectly reasonable to call such a piece an "article".

a written composition in prose, usually nonfiction, on a specific topic, forming an independent part of a book or other publication, as a newspaper or magazine.

A piece of writing included with others in a newspaper, magazine, or other publication:

[Thanas]

Uh, it is pretty common in anglo news to differentiate the two that way to separate reporting of facts from opinion.