Israel army chief contradicts Netanyahu on Iran

[Supreme_Warlord]

General Benny Gantz thinks 'rational' Iranian leadership will not build nuclear weapons

The head of the Israel Defence Force (IDF) Lieutenant General Benny Gantz has made some striking remarks about Iran's nuclear ambitions in an Independence Day interview with Haaretz.

Basically, Gantz says that although Iran is pressing ahead with its uranium enrichment programme, he does not think Iran's top leadership, under current circumstances, would take the risk of building a nuclear weapon. Here is the relevant quote.

If the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants, he will advance it to the acquisition of a nuclear bomb, but the decision must first be taken. It will happen if Khamenei judges that he is invulnerable to a response. I believe he would be making an enormous mistake, and I don't think he will want to go the extra mile. I think the Iranian leadership is composed of very rational people. But I agree that such a capability, in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists who at particular moments could make different calculations, is dangerous.

This sounds very much like the analysis that has been coming from Gantz's US counterpart, General Martin Dempsey, in his efforts to restrain the Israeli government from taking military action. It sounds very unlike the sort of language that has been coming from Gantz's boss, prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, for instance in his Holocaust Memorial speech last week:

Today, the regime in Iran openly calls and determinedly works for our destruction. And it is feverishly working to develop atomic weapons to achieve that goal.

In his Haaretz interview, Gantz all but calls on Netanyahu to calm down. He says:

The state of Israel is the strongest in the region and will remain so. Decisions can and must be made carefully, out of historic responsibility but without hysteria

The Iranian-Israeli analyst, Meir Javedanfar, has this take on the blatant conflict of views:

This contradiction is a welcome development. The main reason being that it takes the hysterics out of Israel's public assessment of the Iranian nuclear program. No one in Israel wants a nuclear armed Iran. The problem is that Netanyahu's exaggerated view about the Iranian nuclear program and the holocaust which it would bring discredit many of Israel's legitimate concerns with regards to Iran.

Gantz's remarks come in the run-up to the planned May 23 talks in Baghdad, when Iran and the international community are expected to start talking about possible compromises to defuse the Iranian crisis. In a way that process, begun this month in Istanbul, is a means for the US and its partners to find enough common ground with Iran to forestall an Israeli attack. It now looks like Bibi's top general has publicly joined that effort

What chance that there will still be a war given the rabid jerking off of Netanyahu and his attack dogs in the US Congress?

[Ace Pace]

This isn't really news. There are two known camps, in which the moderate side includes not just Gantz, but also the former head of the Mossad. Whether this really reduces the chances of an attack, I don't think anyone can really say.

What you should probably remember is that them being moderate on the Iranian nuclear question does mean they're also pro pulling back on the whole shadow war between Israel and Iran (say, through Hezbullah, Mossad assasinations, rocket attacks, ship impoundments).

[Pelranius]

Will Bibi try to retaliate against Gantz?

[Supreme_Warlord]

Will Bibi try to retaliate against Gantz?

Ex-Israeli spy boss attacks Netanyahu and Barak over Iran

PM and defence chief not fit to lead Israel and are misleading the public over Iran, warns former Shin Bet boss Yuval Diskin

Harriet Sherwood in Jerusalem
guardian.co.uk, Saturday 28 April 2012 12.58 BST
Article history

Former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin criticises Netanyahu and Barak over Iran. Link to this video

Israel's former security chief has censured the country's "messianic" political leadership for talking up the prospects of a military stike on Iran's nuclear programme.

In unusually candid comments set to ratchet up tensions over Iran at the top of Israel's political establishment, Yuval Diskin, who retired as head of the internal intelligence agency Shin Bet last year, said he had "no faith" in the abilities of the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the defence minister, Ehud Barak, to conduct a war.

The pair, who are the foremost advocates of military action against Iran's nuclear programme, were "not fit to hold the steering wheel of power", Diskin told a meeting on Friday night.

"My major problem is that I have no faith in the current leadership, which must lead us in an event on the scale of war with Iran or a regional war," he said.

"I don't believe in either the prime minister or the defence minister. I don't believe in a leadership that makes decisions based on messianic feelings. Believe me, I have observed them from up close ... They are not people who I, on a personal level, trust to lead Israel to an event on that scale and carry it off.

"They are misleading the public on the Iran issue. They tell the public that if Israel acts, Iran won't have a nuclear bomb. This is misleading. Actually, many experts say that an Israeli attack would accelerate the Iranian nuclear race."

Government aides described Diskin's comments as irresponsible and motivated from personal frustration.

Diskin's remarks followed a furore over comments made on Wednesday by Israel's serving military chief, Benny Gantz, which starkly contrasted with Netanyahu's rhetoric on Iran. Gantz said he did not believe the Iranian leadership was prepared to "go the extra mile" to acquire nuclear weapons because it was "composed of very rational people" who understood the consequences.

In what was seen as a veiled rebuke to the prime minister, Gantz added: "Decisions can and must be made carefully, out of historic responsibility but without hysteria."

The chief of staff later attempted to gloss over suggestions of a breach between the military and political leaderships, telling reporters there was "really no distance" between his view and the prime minister's.

Neither Netanyahu nor Barak have moderated their rhetoric. The prime minister recently said that those who downplayed the threat from a nuclear Iran "have learned nothing from the Holocaust". He added: "The Iranian regime is openly calling for our destruction and working frantically for the development of nuclear weapons as a means to that end."

On Thursday, Barak said the chances of Iran halting its nuclear programme in response to international sanctions appeared low. Iran, he said, was not "rational in the western sense of the word".

Diskin's comments also put him in agreement with the former head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, who has said that attacking Iran was "the stupidest thing I have ever heard" and that the Iranian regime was rational.

What's going on here? Seems to be something in the water!

[eyl]

This isn't really news. There are two known camps, in which the moderate side includes not just Gantz, but also the former head of the Mossad. Whether this really reduces the chances of an attack, I don't think anyone can really say.

What you should probably remember is that them being moderate on the Iranian nuclear question does mean they're also pro pulling back on the whole shadow war between Israel and Iran (say, through Hezbullah, Mossad assasinations, rocket attacks, ship impoundments).

Do you mean doesn't?

Will Bibi try to retaliate against Gantz?

Possibly, but I doubt it'll reach the level of firing him or something, more likely an increase in friction between them (and Barak).