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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Shroom Man 777 »

Also, Russia and Iran aren't the freest greatest super arsenal democracy free world leader of earth though.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by K. A. Pital »

Thanas wrote:What I am getting at is that you are probably quite okay with the US and Israel taking steps to prevent Iran getting the bomb.
Don't go overboard here Thanas, Simon already said he is not okay with "US and Israel" taking such steps. And that he is disturbed by a nuclear Iran, but clearly prefers that to an attack on Iran.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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Stas Bush wrote:
Thanas wrote:What I am getting at is that you are probably quite okay with the US and Israel taking steps to prevent Iran getting the bomb.
Don't go overboard here Thanas, Simon already said he is not okay with "US and Israel" taking such steps. And that he is disturbed by a nuclear Iran, but clearly prefers that to an attack on Iran.
In which case I apologize and concede that part of my post.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Shroom Man 777 »

One thing,
Sephirius wrote:I think the problem lies not in them having nukes, but them having the capability to proliferate that knowledge/expertise to known terror organizations.

Hey Hezbollah, you want a few fuel rods?
What are they going to do with the fuel rods? Shove them up their noses like what Baffalo did?

If you're talking about a dirty bomb, Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons infrastructure to give them a dirty bomb. Dirty bombs don't need fissionable material, just radioactive shit that kills people, which Iran can already give to people with its existing nuclear infrastructure even without the capability to make nuclear bombs, all it needs is the capability to build CAT-scans.

If you're talking about Iran giving them bomb technicians to somehow magically make nuclear weapons in caves with boxes of scraps (and yet nobody is shrieking about this, in regards to that other nuclear-armed nation, whose crib Osama bin Laden crashed in for a jiffy), well, I guess I'll leave that to Baffalo's Mazeltov Mossad Murder Marine Kosher Krieg Korps to handle. :P
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Broomstick »

Thanas wrote:By that standard, America, as an aggressor far worse than any other nation since the 1990s, should not be allowed to have nukes.
Yes, but the US already has nukes, and no one seems inclined to take them away. If the US did not have nukes yet that would be a valid argument to try to prevent that state of affairs. Reality, however, is that the US has them already.
It is blatantly hypocritical to complain about the evil Iranians having nukes when last I checked they have not a single boot on foreign soil.
I haven't complained about it. I recognize that they're doing this out of self-defense and even stated I expect they'll just sit on any nukes they acquire. If I'm not happy about the acquisition it's because I'm not happy about nuclear proliferation for any reason, not because Iran in particular is getting them. The more weapons you have the more likely it is that something will go wrong, and that's true whether you're talking about pocket knives, guns, or bombs.
I don't like Iran myself, but going "they cannot be trusted. They want a war" is hypocritical to the extreme.
Most of us aren't saying that. In fact, I'm trying to find a post in this thread where someone actually takes that position but I'm having a problem finding one. Perhaps you could point one out?
Thanas wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:Did you read Broomstick's post?
Yes. I've snipped out the rest because it was pretty bad rambling without a point.
Sorry about my giving a damn about what the consequences of a nuke strike on a city would be on the actual inhabitants. I keep forgetting that I'm not supposed to have any sort of empathy while posting on SD.net.
My specific response was to her hand-wriging over aggressive nations, which hilariously left out the most aggressive nation of today.
I can always trust YOU to post America's faults, Thanas, so no need for me to mention them. In fact, I try to avoid mentioning the US when you're around because you do so enjoy harping on how awful that nation is. Sometimes, I'm not sure whether it's a genuine bias you can't see or you're trolling to get a reaction to “prove” you're point about how awful Americans are.

So, yes, I deliberately avoided mentioning the US because I knew you would.
Because a large faction of your political establishment is doing exactly the "evil and aggressive" routine. A much larger part is all for helping Israel to bomb Iran. All of which comes off as extremely hypocritical, if only for the reason that a lot of it is "we don't want nukes in the hands of those evil Iranians" because they can't be trusted to have some professionals.
I can acknowledge that my government is full of hypocritical assholes without myself supporting that position. Can you acknowledge that some of the American posters actually do have different opinions than the government they live under? Last I heard, Germany allows freedom of thought, opinion, and speech and has different segments of its population holding different opinions, is it that strange the same state of affairs would prevail in the US?
Thanas wrote:Iran is running very competent security forces after all who cracked down on insurgencies that would have toppled lesser regimes and who are currently running a very efficient counter-espionage program against the US and Israel trying to stop them.
All good points. I may not particularly like the current Iranian regime but they do seem to have firm control at the moment. That's another reason I think if/when they get a nuke they really will use it strictly as a way of warding off US invasion rather than “spend” it on Israel.

The US and USSR spent decades yelling about eliminating each other but managed to co-exist anyhow. The rhetoric can be nerve-wracking but most of us know a lot of it is for domestic consumption more than anything else.

So far, none of the countries that have acquired nukes since 1945 have used them in warfare. I do find that a hopeful sign on a certain level and it keeps from panicking every time someone else gets the technology. Part of the problem, though, is that politicians can and do profit from panicking the common idiots.
In case of a coup, I would guess the people who would be most worried about getting nuked are those on the losing side of the civil war. In any case, nuclear nations have had coups (Russia for one) and guess what, nothing happened.
For which fact everyone is very, very happy. That's Russia, though. The outcome might not be so happy if a coup happens elsewhere.
Oh, and stop the "I am just a bleeding heart american worrying about those poor Iranies, while I am also arguing with a straight face that we cannot trust those bastards to not nuke themselves or anybody else.
It IS possible for an individual American to have empathy for Iranians that might be killed in a war. We have been known to engage in ridiculous hand-wringing after all.

Beyond that, has it occurred to you that the US, the one nation that actually HAS used nuclear weapons in warfare, might not trust others to be so restrained because they themselves violated that taboo in the past, so the thought is, if we could bring ourselves to do it, couldn't someone else?
BTW, Pakistan is a deal more unstable than Iran. How many nukes have they launched during the recent coup?
None. Which makes me quite happy. I hope the trend of nukes not being used in civil wars continues. I don't see where concerns about who might end up with nukes during a civil war or coup is a baseless concern. The possibility is there.
For the record, I would argue that the USA falls pretty much into the middle tier of nations as far as atrocities and selling arms are. Definitely the worst of all democracies though, given it has directly or indirectly killed millions.
That's because we're so damn inventive when it comes to warfare and profits.
Do I really need to explain that I don't think nations getting nukes is a good thing?
Actually, I think most of us here are in agreement about that. Would it be correct to assume you would in fact be in favor or reducing nuclear arsenals world-wide? (Elimination perhaps as an ideal, but unlikely to ever actually occur).
That does not mean bombing the Iranians and spending the better part of the last three years foaming about the evil Iranians is in any way productive here. At the very worst, if Iran decides to go crazy and nuke Israel there will be MAD. At the very worst, the situation will be like it was between the USA and USSR - two nations that hated each other, but could not do anything about it.
I'd say it's more than those two nations chose not to do anything about it. The cost to benefit ratio was not favorable. MAD between Iran and Israel will probably have the same result as MAD between the US and USSR, and between Pakistan and India. I do get concerned that at some point some nation is going to decide that the costs are acceptable and drop an a-bomb on someone else. I don't think the Iran/Israel situation fits that scenario.
Nation states only sell WMDs to other nation states. Not to terrorist organizations.
Question – have nation states ever actually sold WMD's to other nation-states? If so, what and when and between which nations?

And by WMD I'm referring to nuclear/biological/chemical.
I mean, I'd understand your position if it were George Bush you were talking to. But you seem to regard any expression of these opinions by any American as invalid- hypocrisy by association. I live in the same country as them, and my fellow citizens have allowed them to hold power, so I must agree with them. And if I express any opinion that anything else going on in the world is bad, then it becomes an opportunity to unroll the litany of American crimes.
You too allowed them to hold power and you are the one who is sooooo worried about iran getting a bomb.
I realize this was directed at Simon Jester, but I'm not sure how you can claim an individual American “allowed” Bush to hold power. US elections on the Federal level have never been unanimous and are frequently close to 50/50. I'm not sure what, exactly, you are expecting the 49% on the losing side of an election to do – rise up and stage a coup? That sorts of negates the whole concept of democracy, doesn't it?
What I am getting at is that you are probably quite okay with the US and Israel taking steps to prevent Iran getting the bomb.
While you might be true that many in the US are “brainwashed” or whatever, you might want to consider that the Americans posting here are not typical Americans – too many of the SD.net Americans are atheist, gay, liberal (by US standards) or something else to be in the US majority. “Typical” Americans either don't come here, or get booted quickly.

I absolutely defend your right to despise my country for whatever reason (which stance alone makes me atypical for an American), but it would be nice if you consider us as individuals first and Americans second.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by MKSheppard »

Rather than making another thread, here's a news dump:

Link

Jordan is to deploy four Patriot missile batteries to protect itself — and Israel — from possible air attack by Syria, the French newspaper Le Figaro reported on Thursday.

Quoting a European military expert, it said the the missile defense systems would be supplied by Germany, with US support. The US originally sold the systems to Germany 20 years ago.

The paper said Israel also privately supported the move.

The Patriots would be capable of intercepting Scud missiles fired by Syria en route to Israel, the expert reportedly said.

The paper noted that a cousin of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s, businessman Rami Makhlouf, had warned last May that Syria’s ongoing conflict would spread beyond its borders, to Israel, if the regime in Damascus felt threatened. “If there is no stability here, there will be none in Israel,” Makhlouf said.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Sidewinder »

MKSheppard wrote:The paper noted that a cousin of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s, businessman Rami Makhlouf, had warned last May that Syria’s ongoing conflict would spread beyond its borders, to Israel, if the regime in Damascus felt threatened. “If there is no stability here, there will be none in Israel,” Makhlouf said.
I doubt Israel is capable of instigating the civil disorder we're seeing in Syria- how'd they be able to get so many Syrians to protest against the Syrian government? And as for Makhlouf's threat, his nation is on thin ice already- with other ARAB nations. Is this really the best time to encourage the Israeli military, and eventually the US- with the Arab League's support, for once- to intervene, with all the collateral damage and civilian casualties that'll ensue?
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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Sidewinder wrote:Is this really the best time to encourage the Israeli military, and eventually the US- with the Arab League's support, for once- to intervene, with all the collateral damage and civilian casualties that'll ensue?
I don't know if it'd really be that bad. On one hand, any military intervention would cause collateral damage, that's sure, but on the other hand, the Syrian military is already DELIBERATLY targetting civilians, and I doubt no matter how FUBARed things get collateral damage would be as high as the civvie casualties the Syrian military is making. I can say that, as in Kosovo and in Lybia, I'd fully support foreign intervention to stop Assad's troops.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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[edit whoops Syria, not Iran]
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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Link
Obama to Iran and Israel: 'As President of the United States, I Don't Bluff'
By Jeffrey Goldberg
Mar 2 2012, 7:00 AM ET 120

Dismissing a strategy of "containment" as unworkable, the president tells me it's "unacceptable" for the Islamic Republic of Iran to have a nuclear weapon.


At the White House on Monday, President Obama will seek to persuade the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to postpone whatever plans he may have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months. Obama will argue that under his leadership, the United States "has Israel's back," and that he will order the U.S. military to destroy Iran's nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel Tehran to shelve its nuclear ambitions.

In the most extensive interview he has given about the looming Iran crisis, Obama told me earlier this week that both Iran and Israel should take seriously the possibility of American action against Iran's nuclear facilities. "I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don't bluff." He went on, "I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say."

The 45-minute Oval Office conversation took place less than a week before the president was scheduled to address the annual convention of AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobbying group, and then meet, the next day, with Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House. In the interview, Obama stated specifically that "all options are on the table," and that the final option is the "military component." But the president also said that sanctions organized by his administration have put Iran in a "world of hurt," and that economic duress might soon force the regime in Tehran to rethink its efforts to pursue a nuclear-weapons program.

"Without in any way being under an illusion about Iranian intentions, without in any way being naive about the nature of that regime, they are self-interested," Obama said. "It is possible for them to make a strategic calculation that, at minimum, pushes much further to the right whatever potential breakout capacity they may have, and that may turn out to to be the best decision for Israel's security."

The president also said that Tehran's nuclear program would represent a "profound" national-security threat to the United States even if Israel were not a target of Iran's violent rhetoric, and he dismissed the argument that the United States could successfully contain a nuclear Iran.

"You're talking about the most volatile region in the world," he said. "It will not be tolerable to a number of states in that region for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and them not to have a nuclear weapon. Iran is known to sponsor terrorist organizations, so the threat of proliferation becomes that much more severe." He went on to say, "The dangers of an Iran getting nuclear weapons that then leads to a free-for-all in the Middle East is something that I think would be very dangerous for the world."

The president was most animated when talking about the chaotic arms race he fears would break out if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, and he seemed most frustrated when talking about what he sees as a deliberate campaign by Republicans to convince American Jews that he is anti-Israel. "Every single commitment I have made to the state of Israel and its security, I have kept," he told me. "Why is it that despite me never failing to support Israel on every single problem that they've had over the last three years, that there are still questions about that?"

Though he struck a consistently pro-Israel posture during the interview, Obama went to great lengths to caution Israel that a premature strike might inadvertently help Iran: "At a time when there is not a lot of sympathy for Iran and its only real ally, [Syria,] is on the ropes, do we want a distraction in which suddenly Iran can portray itself as a victim?"

He also said he would try to convince Netanyahu that the only way to bring about a permanent end to a country's nuclear program is to convince the country in question that nuclear weapons are not in its best interest. "Our argument is going to be that it is important for us to see if we can solve this thing permanently, as opposed to temporarily," he said, "and the only way historically that a country has ultimately decided not to get nuclear weapons without constant military intervention has been when they themselves take [nuclear weapons] off the table. That's what happened in Libya, that's what happened in South Africa."

And though broadly sympathetic to Netanyahu's often-stated fear that Iran's nuclear program represents a Holocaust-scale threat to the Jewish state, and the Jewish people, Obama suggested strongly that historical fears cannot be the sole basis for precipitous action: "The prime minister is head of a modern state that is mindful of the profound costs of any military action, and in our consultations with the Israeli government, I think they take those costs, and potential unintended consequences, very seriously."

But when I asked the president if he thought Israel could damage its reputation among Americans with an attack on Iran -- an attack that could provoke Iranian retaliation against American targets, and could cause massive economic disruption -- he said, "I think we in the United States instinctively sympathize with Israel." President Obama also shared fascinating insights about his sometimes tension-filled relationship with Netanyahu -- and spoke at length about Syria -- but for that, you'll have to read the entire interview.
Transcript of the entire interview is at the link.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Simon_Jester »

OK, I have to say, the US policy here is as schizophrenic as the Iranian one seems to be.

If the Iranians are keeping up the pretense of having a bomb program (well enough to fool the IAEA) while not actually having one, they're crazy.

When the US is simultaneously telling Israel not to bomb Iran and threatening to bomb Iran, calling for peace while rattling the saber... that's equally crazy. It's unacceptable, but we don't want to fight about it, the CIA isn't sure it exists but we know it's important enough to issue press releases over... gah.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Aaron MkII »

Maybe we'll get lucky and everyone will be to confused to bomb them.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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The way things are going it seems like people might accidentally bomb themselves.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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Simon_Jester wrote:OK, I have to say, the US policy here is as schizophrenic as the Iranian one seems to be.

If the Iranians are keeping up the pretense of having a bomb program (well enough to fool the IAEA) while not actually having one, they're crazy.

When the US is simultaneously telling Israel not to bomb Iran and threatening to bomb Iran, calling for peace while rattling the saber... that's equally crazy. It's unacceptable, but we don't want to fight about it, the CIA isn't sure it exists but we know it's important enough to issue press releases over... gah.
There is nothing contradictory about the U.S. is telling Israel not to bomb Iran just yet. It is simply a call for patience to see if sanctions do end up getting the desired results. Rattling the saber is meant to serve as a warning to Iran, and a promise to Israel and other allies in the region who are opposed to a nuclear armed Iran, that if required Military action will be taken.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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If I were feeling cynical, I would guess that Obama's motivations are in no small part asking Israel "please don't start another war until I'm reelected."
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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Totally - no PotUS wants a potentially unpopular war to break out during the primary season.

Thought with bin Laden to his administration's credit Obama's "I'm not bluffing" a bit more credible than that of some other presidents'.

Strictly speaking, the US is not directly threatening to bomb Iraq, it just hasn't been ruled out. Nothing has been ruled out, which is SOP for the PotUS for some decades now.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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If I was the Israelis, I'd strike on what 5 or 6 March; or basically this coming Monday/Tuesday.

Everyone's been projecting an attack in May/June (early summer), and nobody will expect it to go down with Bibi out of Israel, and certainly not when he's meeting Obama in the White House.

They'll all expect it to go down when he's deep in the Israeli version of RAVEN ROCK, not overseas.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Vehrec »

The commentators on NPR yesterday were arguing that this was actually intedned as a comforting move towards the Isrealis, to reasure them that they are not alone, and that they aren't going to have to attack.

They also said that this interview showed just how intelligent Obama is, and wondered if any of the republican candidates could match him in controling an interview of this kind.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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If there's an Israeli Strike, it'd probably go down the same way that Operation Babylon did in 1981 -- the Israelis would fly across Saudi Arabian airspace (albeit this time with implicit permission) -- remember that the Gulf monarchies are all afraid of the Iranian Bomb, only slightly less than Israel -- and attack Iran from the south.

This leads one to the amusing possibility that EF2000's first air to air kill will be by a Saudi pilot shooting down an Iranian F-4.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

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How is that in any way amusing?
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by MKSheppard »

thejester wrote:How is that in any way amusing?
Because Saudis are supposed to be incompetent rich loons who can't hit the broad side of a barn?
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Pelranius
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by Pelranius »

MKSheppard wrote:If I was the Israelis, I'd strike on what 5 or 6 March; or basically this coming Monday/Tuesday.

Everyone's been projecting an attack in May/June (early summer), and nobody will expect it to go down with Bibi out of Israel, and certainly not when he's meeting Obama in the White House.

They'll all expect it to go down when he's deep in the Israeli version of RAVEN ROCK, not overseas.
Wouldn't that create a lot of communications problems? Unless Bibi is willing to sit out having much of a role in commanding the attack when it comes by signing over a lot of authority to the Defense and Foreign Ministers, and the generals.
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thejester
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by thejester »

MKSheppard wrote:
thejester wrote:How is that in any way amusing?
Because Saudis are supposed to be incompetent rich loons who can't hit the broad side of a barn?
EDIT: Nevermind, thought there was some sort of hidden irony in this but get what you're saying now.
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Re: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making mi

Post by cosmicalstorm »

The latest issue of The Economist covered the options fairly well. Here is a breakdown.

1. Let them have a bomb and make it hurt via sanctions, seemed like the best option.
2. Bomb them and reinforce the regime, make them more dangerous and more motivated to build a new bomb. Even for America, it would be difficult to hit the Fordow installation properly.
3. Bomb them once every couple of years, and the world will hate America more than ever.

My preferred choice:
Let them have it and just be nice, start free trade and peace negotiations or something, make sure the mullahs now there would be a nice RV dropping into their upper class neighborhood in Teheran half an hour after a confirmed Iran bomb exploded somewhere outside of Iran.
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