Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

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SpaceMarine93
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Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by SpaceMarine93 »

Alright, how exactly did this happen?

From BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16881848
US President Barack Obama challenged Congress to keep the economic recovery going as new data showed unemployment down to its lowest rate in three years.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, beating analyst forecasts, and was down from 8.5% in December.

Speaking at a fire station in Virginia, the president warned Congress: "Do not slow down the recovery that we're on."

A Department of Labor report showed 243,000 new jobs were created in January, the highest in nine months.

The figures are a political boost for Mr Obama, whose re-election prospects hinge on a sustained economic recovery.

'True recovery'?
"Now, these numbers will go up and down in the coming months, and there's still far too many Americans who need a job, or need a job that pays better than the one they have now," Mr Obama said.

"But the economy is growing stronger. The recovery is speeding up. And we've got to do everything in our power to keep it going."

"Now is not is not the time for self-inflicted wounds to our economy. I want to send a clear message for Congress. Do not slow down the recovery that we are on, don't muck it up."

Mr Obama also urged congressional Republicans to pass legislation extending a payroll tax break for 160 million Americans through to the end of the year.

Leading Republicans acknowledged the improvement in the labour market, while adding that even more could be done to improve the state of the US economy.

"These numbers are encouraging, especially for those millions of Americans out of work, but we should aim even higher. We shouldn't settle, we can do more," House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said.

Meanwhile, Speaker of the House John Boehner said: "Our economy still isn't creating jobs the way it should be and that's why we need a new approach."

On the campaign trail, frontrunning presidential candidate Mitt Romney said: "Unfortunately, these numbers cannot hide the fact that President Obama's policies have prevented a true economic recovery."

Election prospects
Friday's data from the Labor Department showed job growth had been widespread, with large gains in business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing.

The report was also buoyed by revisions to November and December data, which showed 60,000 more jobs created across the two months than previously reported.

The figures add to a range of data pointing to a gradual US economic recovery.

Last week, it was announced that the US economy expanded at a 2.8% annual pace in the October-December quarter, a full percentage point higher than in the previous quarter.

Earlier this week, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that the US manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in seven months in January.

But a report on Wednesday by the US Congressional Budget Office, a federal agency, forecast that unemployment would climb to nearly 9% in the last three months of this year and peak at 9.2% early next year.

Unemployment and economic recovery has been a dominant issue in the campaign for November's US presidential elections.

Although the downward trend in joblessness augurs well for Barack Obama's prospects of a second term, he is still likely to face more voters out of work than any post-war president.

When Ronald Reagan won re-election in a landslide victory in 1984, joblessness in the US stood at 7.5%.

In 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover was voted out of office in a year when unemployment was at 23.6%.

His successor, Franklin Roosevelt, faced joblessness rates of 16.9% in 1936 and 14.6% when he was re-elected four years later, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Analysis from Paul Adams, BBC News Washington:
As always, the numbers are complex. But it's hard not to see this as good news - for the economy and Barack Obama's re-election chances.

The figures don't take account of those who are no longer looking for work. And the Congressional Budget Office has warned that the rate of unemployment may creep back up during 2012, growth will be sluggish and trillion dollar deficits aren't about to disappear.

But you can't argue with a quarter-million new jobs, or with an unemployment rate that is dropping. Right now, it's back where it was when Barack Obama took office three years ago.

How does this translate politically? If this pattern continues, it's hard to see how he isn't heading for a second term. The Republican message, for now, is "the recovery could have been so much swifter without this president". That is a much harder message to sell than what is actually happening.

Obama's challenge now is to turn raw data into a general belief that things are getting better.
Good news, but could this last? Would the rate it is going be enough to win Obama the election? Is the American economy finally recovering or is it just a brief spot of hope before another potential downturn much later?

And, forgive my ignorance, how did this happen exactly?
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by Lost Soal »

The bad news. A sizable proportion wont believe it. This is the same place where raising the military budget every year means he's cut military spending, cutting taxes means he's raised taxes, not even talking about gun rights means he wants to take them away from all true Americans and talking about his Christian beliefs at the National Prayer Breakfast was considered news because did you know hes not a Muslim. Surprising isn't it.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by Starglider »

SpaceMarine93 wrote:Alright, how exactly did this happen?
Since you asked;
Paul Adams wrote:As always, the numbers are complex. The figures don't take account of those who are no longer looking for work.
Image

See that sudden drop at the end there? That's a 1.2 million single-month increase in the 'not looking for work' segment of the population, an all-time record. Since the participation rate for older people is still creeping up (due to constantly rising retirement rate) the situation for younger people is even worse than the above graph suggests;

Image

Data from BLS, see row eight. The surge is from a big reduction in the seasonal adjustment, so this isn't actually lots of people giving up looking for work in the new year, it's the US government giving up on fiddling the statistic. Why? Because discarding this little piece of propaganda enables the much more useful propaganda of reducing the headline unemployment figure.

You may now proceed to explain how this post is 'economic doomerism' and hence should be purged from N&P, as everything is fine, Obama is great, average length of unemployment at all-time highs is non issue, etc etc.

P.S. Of the jobs that were added, an all-time high were part-time rather than full-time;

Image

But that's good right? Work-life balance and all that, much better than high wages and benefits which would only fuel soulless materialism.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by UnderAGreySky »

Of the jobs that were added, an all-time high were part-time rather than full-time
While I won't make excuses for those figures, I must say that even that is a good sign. It means that people don't mind coming back to work. It could be a sign of cautious optimism on the part of those hiring that they've opened temp job positions to deal with a surge in demand. This normally falls in January IIRC because of post-Christmas fall in sales, but it hasn't happened. A month or two more of this and things will have an even greater chance of being better.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by Starglider »

UnderAGreySky wrote:While I won't make excuses for those figures, I must say that even that is a good sign. It means that people don't mind coming back to work. It could be a sign of cautious optimism on the part of those hiring that they've opened temp job positions to deal with a surge in demand.
Temp versus perm is a different issue (legally and socially) to part time vs full time. I don't have any good figures for the US term/perm split; I use the BLS releases as algorithmic input as these announcements are a major market mover, but significant correlates are mostly the headline figures (I'm not currently involved with any long term macro that would probably benefit more from the detailed breakdown; no one I know is trading on those kind of fundamentals).

That said temp and part-time are similar in that they have less pay, job security and benefits than the traditional full-time permenant role, which is generally bad for social equality, consumer spending etc. I am all for private contracting and part-time when employers pay a premium for the flexibility (as they do in finance & IT), but unfortunately at the low end of the job market there is a discount rather than a premium.
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J
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by J »

To expand on Starglider's first post, we need to understand how unemployment is calculated in the US.

After you've watched the above video, we have this.
Thankfully, someone else wrote it up first so that I don't have to.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by Ariphaos »

J wrote:After you've watched the above video, we have this.
Thankfully, someone else wrote it up first so that I don't have to.
The guy makes this claim, seemingly referencing the household data:
Indeed, the total number of employed persons fell. A lot. To put a number on it, the total number of employed persons fell by 737,000 by actual count.
http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

January 2012 Employed: 141,637
December 2011 Employed: 140,790

There are two possible explanations
1) This is outright fraud
2) That there was a recent major statistical analysis of the United States, on a scale much too large to happen on a yearly basis. But such a thing is clearly unprecedented.
Effective with data for January 2012, updated population estimates
which reflect the results of Census 2010 have been used in the
household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are
developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau
updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about
the growth of the population during the decade. The change in
population reflected in the new estimates results from the
introduction of the Census 2010 count as the new population base,
adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics and
other information, and some methodological changes in the estimation
process. The vast majority of the population change, however, is due
to the change in base population from Census 2000 to Census 2010.
For fuck's sake.
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J
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by J »

You're looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers which are revised on an ongoing basis. The blogger is going by the raw unadjusted numbers which can be found by checking the boxes here.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by Ariphaos »

J wrote:You're looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers which are revised on an ongoing basis. The blogger is going by the raw unadjusted numbers which can be found by checking the boxes here.
Let's look at some other Dec->Jan job losses from that data!

2010->2011: 139,159->137,599 - A net loss of over one and a half million!
2009->2010: 137,953->136,809 - 1.1 Million!
2008->2009: 143,350->140,436 - Nearly three million!

Ooh, I know, let's pick a random Bush year:
2004->2005: 140,278->138,682 - One and a half million again!

Gee, all those January numbers have a little (1) beside them, that couldn't mean anything important:
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
I.E. they updated the population count. Because, shock horror, the population of the United States is in fact not constant. According to that the US still added 2.4 million jobs last year, by comparing things appropriately - vertical columns.

tl;dr: Your source is a lying sack of shit.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by TheHammer »

Look, you can say all you like about the statistics being twisted, however the markets showed significant bounce over the employment numbers. So its not all smoke and mirrors on the part of government.

In terms of how this affects Obama's chances, quite frankly most people like Obama. The same can not be said about Romeny or Gingrich, or any other Republican currently running. Obama has proven to be quite adept at foreign policy despite that being his supposed weakness. The one and only hope Republicans have is that the economy still looks weak come election time. Continued signs of improvement will squash that like a bug. Obama gets to point to the improvement and say "We are finally emerging from all the damage the Republicans did that lead to the big bank bailouts and economic troubles. Do you really want to give them back the government now that things are getting better?"

Very big parrallels here to the Clinton presidency that looked doomed to be single term, but who is now regarded as a very good president thanks to a timely improvement of the economy at the end of his first term.
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Re: Good news for Obama - Economy actually getting better

Post by Starglider »

TheHammer wrote:Look, you can say all you like about the statistics being twisted, however the markets showed significant bounce over the employment numbers. So its not all smoke and mirrors on the part of government.
Damn you I now have coke all over my keyboard. Please wait while I stop laughing.

Ok done. You seriously believe that market movements correlating with government statistic releases are due to the economic predictive value of those releases? Or that in the current era of endless constant central bank intervention across nearly all asset classes, intraday price blips in 'markets' are any sort of validation of government policy? What if markets go down sharply next week? Does that mean everyone has digested these figures and determined them to be bullshit? Or does it just mean everyone has moved on to chasing the next trend, or a CB pulled liquidity, or have decided to go risk-off for no reason at all?

Markets bounce because trading bots that scan newswire reports are programmed to bias their estimation of price trends and support levels based on certain statistics and keywords. The government knows this, the traders know this, everyone tries to manipulate the system to their advantage (this is incidentally a big factor in why congressional stock portfolios outperform to a suspicous degree). In fact the market impact of these figures is probably a bigger reason to manipulate them than the direct PR impact on the electorate. It's one of the many, many emporer-has-no-clothes situations that is currently being maintained in global finance.
Very big parrallels here to the Clinton presidency that looked doomed to be single term, but who is now regarded as a very good president thanks to a timely improvement of the economy at the end of his first term.
That's possible, but the main reason it could happen is if the Federal Reserve get an excuse to do a third round of quantitive easing. That would generate a market surge similar to the first half of last year - and if the target is MBS as rumoured then the feed-through into the real economy (specifically more construction and refinancing freeing up disposable income) should be better than QE2. They're actually still trickling out QE even now, but current levels aren't enough to overcome the drag that Europe is likely to generate post Greek bankrupcy (still an issue; the ECB is literally throwing new liquidity at banks now, but ultimately you can't print confidence).
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