Uprising in Libya

[Zed]

Gaddafi isn't "third rate". He's the most senior head of government in the world, having lead Libya since 1969.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Just saw this in the latest news roundup. Not sure if this counts as actual news, or juicy rumor.

Colonel Gaddafi 'flees' to Venezuela as cities fall to protesters

Credible Western intelligence reports say that Muammar Gaddafi has fled Libya and is on his way to exile in Venezuela, according to William Hague, the foreign secretary.
Libya: Colonel Gaddafi 'flees' to Venezuela as cities fall to protesters
Several media have also reported rumors that Colonel Gaddafi was headed to Venezuela Photo: REUTERS
Bruno Waterfield
By Bruno Waterfield, Brussels 5:38PM GMT 21 Feb 2011

Following an emergency EU meeting of foreign ministers on the situation in Libya, Mr Hague was asked if Britain, or other Western countries, knew if Col. Gaddafi had left Tripoli.

“About whether Col. Gaddafi, is in Venezuela, I have no information that says he is although I have seen some information that suggests he is on his way there,” he said.

British officials stressed that Mr Hague was referring “not to media reports but information from other channels”. “This is credible information,” said a diplomat.

Mr Hague said that the foreign office was offering “every possible assistance” to the 3,500 British nationals currently in Libya.

“There should be restraint instead of violence, dialogue instead of repression in Libya. Human rights should be respected. We are concerned at this stage about our nationals in Libya,” he said.

Governments and companies have scrambled to get people out of Libya after security forces loyal to Col. Gaddafi warned he would “fight to the last bullet”.

As foreign ministers met in Brussels, they heard intelligence reports that the Libyan regime was close to collapse as the city of Benghazi fell to anti-government protesters.

A senior source in the Venezuelan government denied the reports that Col. Gaddafi was travelling to the South American oil-producing nation led by his ally President Hugo Chavez.

An official said the information that the Libyan leader was heading into exile was “unfounded rumours”.

[Edward Yee]

For now juicy rumor, if only because Venezuela's denying it and we have no credible third-party confirmation.

We've already seen rumblings in Iran but sadly I don't know enough about the area to make any other guesses about the existing regimes.

Unfortunately, unless it comes out that the Basij or Revolutionary Guard are degraded (in capability or willingness to suppress), I wouldn't count on it growing any louder than rumblings.

P.S. Egypt-related, but apparently the guy standing behind Omar Suleiman during the "Mubarak resigns" announcement became an Arab Internet meme for being so stern/"angry"-faced... until he turned out to be an Egyptian special forces colonel.

[Korgeta]

I cannot see the current regime in Libya lasting, any nation resorting to bombard their own people and is losing some segments of its own key political figures as well as military units is acting on sheer desperation, I imagine that that for the political and military defectors they know if Gaddafi's forces do crush the revolt then it's likely Libya will receive severe sanctions, just by the current atrocities so far, so I think there is a number (after seeing it happen in egypt) that this won't go away and if the uprising is crushed then libya could be worse off, the only way forward in the protesters agenda must be to see the current regime overthrown.

As for iran, well they had to quell the uproar that was over elections a while back, if the uprising in Libya overcomes the bombings and shootings and gets rid of Gaddafi then there could be a renewed and possibly a even more bloody uprising in iran again.

[MarshalPurnell]

Bombarding their own people worked out spectacularly well for the Ba'athist dictatorships in Syria and Iraq. The memory of Hama almost certainly insure that there will be no protests in Damascus, for example. Dictatorships don't fall because they massacre and brutalize their own people. They fall when the instruments of security (especially the Army) turn out to be not-reliable, usually as a result of the regime displaying weakness by vacillating between concessions and ineffective uses of force. Libya is kind of an outlier in so far that the population as a whole is heavily armed and so could resist the paramilitary forces initially used to crack down on them, while the army fractured along tribal lines. Well, it may bear significantly on Yemen in that regard, but not so much elsewhere.

[Tribun]

Well, seems Gaddafi is still in country, although from where he spoke in television was rather strange, sitting in a car with an open umbrella.

In other news, from all what I hear, he's pretty much lost control of east Libya by now. This can't be good for him once people are no longer frightened by him, it won't be like before.

[Zaune]

Courtesy of the BBC website ([url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12533069]source[/url):


I think he might be going round the twist.

Incidentally, the above link contains an embedded video which including a brief clip from that press statement by Gaddafi's son. Is it just me or does he look and sound like he's been hitting the bottle?

[Lord of the Abyss]

Bombarding their own people worked out spectacularly well for the Ba'athist dictatorships in Syria and Iraq. The memory of Hama almost certainly insure that there will be no protests in Damascus, for example. Dictatorships don't fall because they massacre and brutalize their own people.

Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. In my opinion, this is exactly the sort of situation where a reputation for a willingness to slaughter your own people is going to backblast. There's already too many people committed to the rebellion, they are too widely spread out, and too many of them are heavily armed or even part of the military or government. They aren't some isolated group that can be massacred while the rest of the country keeps their head down; if they lose they can expect some sort of Stalin-style purges and witchhunts all over the country in every level of society and the government. They are also well armed and numerous enough to consider winning a serious possibility. So all a reputation for ruthlessness will do is make them fight that much harder and ignore any offers of compromise, as well as convincing people to fight who might otherwise have chosen to sit out the conflict, out of fear of being caught up in the witch hunt of a resurgent Gaddafi regime.

They simply have a better chance of fighting and winning than they do of surviving if they surrender.

[MKSheppard]

So it appers that some Libyan AF pilots chose to defect with their Mirages to Malta rather than bomb protestors.

[Lonestar]

So it appers that some Libyan AF pilots chose to defect with their Mirages to Malta rather than bomb protestors.

Second page Shep.

[cosmicalstorm]

I love the part about the pilots landing in Malta. I wonder what will happen to those Mirages? I'm still kind of thinking that the uprising won't succeed. But then again I'm fairly uninformed about Libyan politics.

[Eframepilot]

I love the part about the pilots landing in Malta. I wonder what will happen to those Mirages? I'm still kind of thinking that the uprising won't succeed. But then again I'm fairly uninformed about Libyan politics.

I dunno. Libya's governmental structure has already fallen into far more chaos than Egypt's did. Ambassadors around the globe are resigning. Military units and large tribes are defecting. And it's moving so fast. I think it's more likely that he'll be finished in a week.

[StrikaAmaru]

I love the part about the pilots landing in Malta. I wonder what will happen to those Mirages? I'm still kind of thinking that the uprising won't succeed. But then again I'm fairly uninformed about Libyan politics.

I dunno. Libya's governmental structure has already fallen into far more chaos than Egypt's did. Ambassadors around the globe are resigning. Military units and large tribes are defecting. And it's moving so fast. I think it's more likely that he'll be finished in a week.

My opinion in this is definitely biased, but for me, this whole mess is eerily reminiscent of the 1989 21-22 December Romanian revolution.

- Both took place after a stream of other revolutions; the revolutions were "late to the party", and their second batch of leaders (of people who actually know what they're doing) absolutely had to move, without being ready/willing, having had their hand forced by both external precedent and internal localized uprisings.

- Both started with spontaneous popular uprisings: in Romania's case, there was a small protest in Iasi in the beginning of December, another one in Timisoara (14-15 Dec), which ended in a bloodbath; half the casualties were from this one, and finally 'the big one' in Bucharest, which ended in Ceausescu being arrested, and a new govt formed.

- Both had the Army involved, and switching sides. The Romanian Army turned in Bucharest, after being ordered to shoot the protesters; Libyan Army is turning for the exact same reasons.

- Change of leadership: right now I'm not sure this is happening in Libya, but once the Army gets involved in the revolution, it's unrealistic to not put it amongst the leadership. Which led to my above formulation of "second batch of leaders" - the first batch are the original leaders, and the second one will be made up of rebelled state officials, military leaders, and, maybe, a few of the originals; they're likely to be a minority at this point, if at all. Which leads me to my prediction of future events:

The current leaders (if they win) will create a new government, made from people who are currently in the second echelon of leadership. Some details of the country's international and internal behavior will change, but not as many as we'd like, or as they should. Generally, things will improve but not by much. The old govt will end up a scapegoat for all of Libya's ills (but that's to be expected) and for as many of the new govt's faults as they can get away with (but that too is to be expected). The one depressing fact about it is that I see as very likely that new!Libya will go further as CIA hidey hole.

[EDIT:] My opinion is biased because I'm Romanian.

[Edward Yee]

No worry, it's a comparative perspective and I thank you for that StrikaAmaru. (In a weird way, I find the CIA's reputation for operational incompetence almost amusing.)

Incidentally, some updates from Ben Wedeman of CNN on Twitter:

About 9 hours ago:

On Egyptian side of border, saw anti-Qaddafi Bedouin convince Egyptian army to allow Egyptian medical aid into #Libya.

Egyptian doctors with medical supplies had been waiting hours to cross into #Libya. Egyptians very sympathetic to Libyan plight. #Egypt

5 minutes ago:

People in Tobruk threatening to cut off export of oil from Eastern #Libya "if Qaddafi does not stop this massacre."

Half a minute ago:

Saw police station in Tobruk main square. Was torched. Other buildings sacked. Banks other installations untouched. #Libya

[Eframepilot]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/africa/2011/ ... bya-feb-22

10.11pm: Libya's defected interior minister has urged the Libyan army to join the people and respond to their "legitimate demands" echoing the language used by defecting Egyptian military leaders before the fall of president Hosni Mubarak.

Either Gaddafi goes down soon or it's going to be outright civil war; arguably it's civil war already.

[J]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ ... 1b4c7.html

Force Majeure declared on Libyan oil exports. I was wondering why oil prices went whacko today...

Libya unrest propels crude oil price surge
February 23, 2011 - 7:29AM


Oil surged to the highest level in more than two years as intensifying violence in Libya fueled concern that supplies from the holder of Africa's largest crude reserves may be disrupted.

Prices in New York jumped as much as 9.6 per cent from the February 18 settlement as soldiers deserted Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's government and diplomats resigned. Prices pared gains after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said there is "absolutely no shortage of supply" and that OPEC members will be ready to meet a shortfall if one develops.

"The world could deal with the loss of Libyan barrels, but the worry is that it won't stop at Libya," said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St Louis. "We don't know where this is going to end."
Advertisement: Story continues below

Crude for March delivery gained $US5.62, or 6.5 per cent, to $US91.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices touched $US94.49 a barrel, the highest level since October 3, 2008. Futures have risen 15 per cent in the past year. US financial markets were closed yesterday for the Presidents Day holiday.

The March contract expires at the close of floor trading today. The more-active April contract increased $US5.07, or 5.7 per cent, to $US94.78 a barrel after touching $US98.48.

Libya declared force majeure on all oil exports, Reuters reported, citing sources it didn't identify. Force majeure allows producers to miss contractual obligations because of circumstances beyond their control.

[Tribun]

This map was created by someone putting together all the news. He states that you have to be careful with it, but it still gives a good impression how bad things are for Gaddafi.

[cosmicalstorm]

Wow I heard a guy on the radio who called out of Tripoli saying that African mercenaries were patrolling the streets and shooting everyone spotted outside on sight, he claimed his female neighbor was shot when she looked out the window.

[Thanas]

That, and mass rapes have also reported by the mercenaries. Gaddafi's family also tried to flee the country, but was turned back.

[J]

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/23/news/in ... roduction/

Excerpt:

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi was reported to have ordered his security services to sabotage oil facilities, according to Time Magazine Wednesday.

A U.S. official told CNN there is no evidence of that yet.

Let's hope it never happens, we don't need another Kuwait.

[Pelranius]

Apparently some of the pilots don't want to bomb the oil infrastructure.

Reports: Libyan aircraft crashes after troops refuse bombing orders

Tobruk, Libya (CNN) -- Even as Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi called on the military to crack down on anti-government protesters, reports came in Wednesday that a military aircraft had crashed because the crew refused to carry out bombing orders.

An opposition figure told CNN the pilot had been ordered to bomb oil fields southwest of Benghazi but refused and instead ejected from the plane.

The Libyan newspaper Quryna reported that two people were on board, and that both -- the pilot and co-pilot -- parachuted out, allowing the plane to crash into an uninhabited area west of Ajdabiya, 160 kilometers (100 miles) southwest of Benghazi. The newspaper cited military sources.

Quryna itself is a sign of the changes sweeping through Libya. When protests began last week, it carried regime propaganda. But it later reported on the protests and casualty figures.

CNN could not confirm reports for many areas in Libya. The Libyan government maintains tight control on communications and has not responded to repeated requests from CNN for access to the country. CNN has interviewed numerous witnesses by phone.

A Libyan Arab Airlines plane was denied permission to land in Malta on Wednesday, Maltese government sources said. Permission was denied for "clearance reasons," because officials did not know who was on board, the sources said.
rd, the sources said.

Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said Wednesday that the death toll in Libya may be as high as 1,000, a representative for the Italian Foreign Ministry said.

The head of the largest trauma hospital in Benghazi told CNN on Wednesday that 202 people have been confirmed dead in the city since protests began last week. The opposition now controls Benghazi, as it does much of eastern Libya.

On Wednesday, the ninth day of protests, Gadhafi faced more defections from within his regime and new international pressure to halt military actions against demonstrators.

Mystery surrounded the whereabouts of one prominent defector. Abdul Fattah Younis al Abidi, the country's interior minister, told CNN Wednesday that he had resigned two days earlier after hearing that 300 unarmed civilians had been killed in Benghazi. He accused Gadhafi of planning to attack civilians on a wide scale and predicted that protesters will achieve victory in "days or hours."

Hours after al Abidi said he resigned, the Libyan government announced Wednesday that he was kidnapped. State media reported that "gangs" had abducted him in Benghazi. Witnesses told CNN they saw al Abidi on Sunday and Monday in Benghazi, where he was siding with the protesters.

The United States is considering a range of tools to pressure Libya to end the violence and respect the rights of its people, U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday. "That certainly includes sanctions that could be imposed either bilaterally or multilaterally," Crowley said.

Peru and Botswana both announced they were breaking diplomatic ties with Libya. Peruvian President Alan Garcia said his country suspended diplomatic relations after condemning "the repression unleashed by Gadhafi."

Botswana's foreign affairs ministry said in a statement, "In light of the massive and disproportionate force visited upon peaceful protesters by the Libyan security forces, the government of Botswana summoned the Libyan Representative in Gaborone and expressed its revulsion at the Libyan government's response to peaceful protesters and called for restraint in dealing with the situation."

The statement added that Botswana was joining "the international community which is calling for action to be taken against those persons who have committed crimes against humanity in the continuing conflict in Libya and hopes that such persons shall be referred to the International Criminal Court to account for their deeds."

ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo noted that Libya is not a party to the Rome Statute, which set up the court. "Intervention by the ICC on the alleged crimes committed in Libya can occur only if the Libyan authorities accept the jurisdiction of the Court," his statement said. "In the absence of such step, the United Nations Security Council can decide to refer the situation to the Court. The Office of the Prosecutor will act only after either decision is taken."

French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for prompt European Union sanctions against Libya on Wednesday, such as "a ban on access to EU territory and financial monitoring."

Residents in the Libyan capital of Tripoli heard sporadic gunshots overnight, a resident said Wednesday. By daybreak, the main roads in the city had been "cleaned off as if nothing happened," she said.

Several more checkpoints have been set up, especially near the city center, restricting residents' movements, she said. And a food shortage is getting worse, she said. When her family went to get bread Wednesday morning, the shops were closed.

Police cars and downed trees blocked access to many of the roads in the neighborhoods, and security officials were not allowing pictures to be taken. Eyewitnesses saw about 10 civilian cars that had been burned out and bodies lying in the streets. Blood could be seen on many streets, a witness said.

In Tripoli's Dahra neighborhood, people drove around in white vans, clearing away makeshift barricades, a witness said.

Wednesday evening, planes circled overhead and shots were fired, though it wasn't clear whether the shots were coming from the air or the ground, a witness said. The streets were largely deserted, but one man could be heard in the street screaming in Arabic, "There is no God but Allah and Mohammed is his prophet" -- a liturgical slogan often invoked by Muslims in challenging situations, the witness said.

Witnesses said security forces increased their presence after Gadhafi defended his regime in a defiant speech Tuesday. He vowed to die a "martyr" and blamed the unrest on "rats" who are "agents" of foreign intelligence services. He warned that people found to be cooperating with outside forces fomenting discord and those who carry weapons against the country will be executed.

A government spokesman blamed U.S. and Israeli intelligence operatives for the unrest. "We will get rid of them, in collaboration with our people in the eastern province," he said.

Referring to reports that the military had attacked civilians, the spokesman said, "We have reports and evidence they are not using arms unless against those who attacked the barracks."

The government version of events differed markedly from what witnesses reported, including helicopter gunships firing into crowds of protesters.

Among the victims caught up in the violent unrest are asylum seekers and refugees, the U.N. refugee agency said as it urged neighboring countries not to turn them away.

Speaking to reporters in Geneva, Switzerland, the chief spokeswoman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said that the reports she has received have been troubling.

"A journalist has passed information to us from Somalis in Tripoli who say they are being hunted on suspicion of being mercenaries. He says they feel trapped and are frightened to go out, even though there is little or no food at home," Melissa Fleming said.

The U.N. refugee agency also praised Tunisia and Egypt for "positive indications" that they will keep their borders open to people fleeing Libya. The agency's staff is working at the Tunisian border to monitor the situation and identify "vulnerable individuals for whom immediate assistance is needed -- such as children without parents, women with children, and the elderly," the agency said in a statement.

An English-speaking Egyptian fleeing Libya told CNN of systematic destruction of cell phone cards and cell phone memory chips at checkpoints on the road to the border with Tunisia.

He also reported thousands of people gathering at the Tripoli airport, both inside and outside.

Meanwhile, the United Nations terminated Gadhafi's daughter's stint as a goodwill ambassador for the U.N. Development Program. U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky said Aisha Gadhafi was appointed goodwill ambassador for Libya in 2009 to address HIV/AIDS and violence against women in the country. Nesirky said the U.N. agency ended its agreement with her given recent events in Libya.

On Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad urged leaders of regional countries to let people express their opinions, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. The Iranian official news agency also reported that Ahmadinejad wondered how the ruler of a country could kill his own people using guns and tanks.

But after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's regime was toppled following 18 days of protests this month, Iranian protesters took to the streets and were met with force.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/afric ... tml?hpt=T1

[JME2]

Oy, glad I'm not there. It sounds a chaotic, free-for-all going on right now.

[MarshalPurnell]

Is it just me, or are the threats of sanctions coming across as absurd, if not fantastical? Qaddafi has made it clear that he will kill as many people as he needs to kill to stay in power. The violence in Tripoli sounds like another Hama, not a peaceful protest being met with "excessive force." Telling Qaddafi to respect the rights of his people or face economic difficulties is just utterly pointless. That's something he might have to deal with if he stays in power, which he has already faced, and which have little real credibility anyway given Libya's oil reserves. Whereas if he does not continue to keep killing protesters until they give in, he faces at best a long exile in Venezuela or South Africa, and at worst will hang from a lamppost in Green Square. All the talk of future consequences can do is promote an embattled and besieged mindset for the regime, which is not exactly what we want them to have when they are laying into the masses with heavy weapons.

We should either throw up a no-fly zone and push Qaddafi over the edge, or at least express our displeasure in a far more concrete way by withdrawing diplomatic recognition. It's just embarrassingly ineffective hot air to be talking about vague economic sanctions."

[Patrick Degan]

NPR reported this afternoon that a provisional government has formed in Al Bayda. They are assuming administration for the eastern half of the country currently in rebel hands but proclaim that they are dedicated to a united Libya.

[Kon_El]

The Iranian official news agency also reported that Ahmadinejad wondered how the ruler of a country could kill his own people using guns and tanks.

Is he condemning Gaddafi or trying to figure out if the army would go along with it?