Uprising in Libya

[Thanas]

Who is pretty supportive? So far the only ones who even made some kind of noise like that are the French, or am I missing something?

[erik_t]

I don't think it's the number of aircraft that is argued to be the challenge, rather the distances involved. We don't necessarily have the equivalent of Saudi or Turkey. Assuming for the sake of argument that Malta was unwilling to host, it's about 650mi each way from Taranto to Surt. I don't suggest that these are exactly the relevant locations, but we're talking about substantial distances. You're certainly not going to go untanked in a F-16 and have four hours on station.

Doesn't even matter, we already have a carrier and a marine assault ship off offshore as well as several AEGIS warships. Thats more then enough firepower to take out all air defenses and crater runways if we need too. I see zero reason why SPY-1 radar backed up by carrier fighters launched on demand cant shutdown all the air action we need dead. Libya is flying fucking Su-22s on maximum range missions and Hind helicopters.. even Marine Harriers can rape this. Furthermore if we did that and moved an AEGIS warship inshore the worthless Libyan navy might try to fire on it, allowing us to sink the blockade and maybe conduct a few 5in bombardments.

This is the fucking US navy against Libya MINUS its regular military! Give me a break people are going to be fucking mass murdered; and Gaddafi has already shown he knows how to conceal fucking piles of bodies! I see hilary Clinton on TV right now BTW, saying nothing but the UN must tell us and we wont even try. Also she claims they rebels aren't losing so this is becoming purely a matter of lies. The demand to take out all the air defenses alone is already a fucking lie, we never accomplished that in Bosnia or over Iraq. We lost an F-15E even while Saddam was fleeing his capital. Who fucking cares when we are throwing away men and money like crazy trying to win in Afghanistan?

I am not personally suggesting that a no-fly zone is untenable, or that we should not make the attempt.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Fuck, by the time the UN gets off its ass and actually does something, the rebellion will be well and truly finished if their government is to be believed. This is what happens when you dick around

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Fuck, by the time the UN gets off its ass and actually does something, the rebellion will be well and truly finished if their government is to be believed. This is what happens when you dick around :x

Arguably, the rebellion was doomed from the word "Go." If international support was strong early on, more of Libya's regular military had come over to the rebel side, and the rebels were able to push harder and more aggressively than they actually had (or were arguably capable of doing) they could've taken Tripoli and forced Gaddafi into retirement, or off a hangman's scaffold.

But, there was no such international support. In fact, there was probably an awful lot of private "Better the devil we know" talk going on. It gave Gaddafi enough time to catch his breath, solidify his control of Tripoli, purge his air force of unloyal officers, and get his tanks and artillery out of storage and limbered up.

Now the rebels are being left increasingly alone. The foreign journalists who aren't under Gaddafi's supervision are high-tailing it back to Egypt, the Libyan regular military officers that defected to the rebellion early on are quietly disappearing themselves somewhere where they hope to be out of reach of Gaddafi's retribution, and the rebels in Benghazi are all getting ready to die gloriously since they can otherwise expect to be "disappeared" by Gaddafi's state medieval torture security apparatus.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And the rebels are lacking in both firepower and experience, if international assistance arrived when momentum was with the rebels Gaddafi would be finished- once he retakes the major cities, it's effectively over. Any remaining rebels will either flee the country and/or go into hiding

[Sea Skimmer]

Yes, no doubt exists that the lack of international support has cost the rebellion many supporters. They held Ras Lanuf for a long time against some very heavy bombardments waiting for that support, now its just been retreating. Btu this is not surprising Ras Lanuf was a pretty good defensive position as far as they come in the desert. Everything in-between Ras Lanuf and Benghazi city limits is pretty open. But even if a lot of people have left, Benghazi is still a half million people. Only a small fraction fighting may make the battle last a month, depending on how much if any ammunition they have brought in. But I do fear the lack of organization is going to lead to a swift penetration and collapse from inside, followed by months of disappearances and murder. I can only hope now the rebels will be able to hold out against that initialattack that might take them off balance, and fight long and hard enough that the world can't stop ignoring the blood. Gaddafi wont be able to hide the bloodshed nearly as well as he did Zawiyah, and that place held out for two weeks against his very best T-72 equipped forces.

The rebels are lacking firepower, but when you have a city only rifles and RPGs can make life for an armored force hell, as long as the people keep fighting. it doesn't look like many government tanks are being used in the east, just a lot of BM-21 fire to drive the rebels out of any fixed position they defend in the open desert. But, weapons are only as good as the ammo supply. That seems to be why Zawiyah fell.

[Lonestar]

Who is pretty supportive? So far the only ones who even made some kind of noise like that are the French, or am I missing something?

The UK PM was making noise about it a week+ ago.

But like I said, it really is a European problem. Europe DOES have the capability to intervene without significant US help, it just seems as if they(Europe) doesn't want to do anything unless they wring a "we'll take point" response from the US(because otherwise it would shift virtually all of the burden on the Europeans).

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

And the rebels are lacking in both firepower and experience, if international assistance arrived when momentum was with the rebels Gaddafi would be finished- once he retakes the major cities, it's effectively over. Any remaining rebels will either flee the country and/or go into hiding :(

Not quite. It'll just be the end of the "open rebellion" phase, and the start of the "armed insurgency" phase. And Gaddafi's already been preparing for that phase by beating the message "the rebellion is backed/guided/wholly infiltrated and subverted by Islamists and al-Qaeda" into the stable of foreign journalists that he's allowed into Tripoli. Whether or not anyone actually believes him right now is open to debate; but if he keeps producing captured insurgents who wearily say that they're from al-Qaeda and "foreign mercenaries" and "zealous supporters of the Colonel" keep 'accidentally' killing journalists who turn up where they're not supposed to be, he stands a fair chance of dehumanizing the remaining insurgents.

[Thanas]

Who is pretty supportive? So far the only ones who even made some kind of noise like that are the French, or am I missing something?

The UK PM was making noise about it a week+ ago.

But like I said, it really is a European problem. Europe DOES have the capability to intervene without significant US help, it just seems as if they(Europe) doesn't want to do anything unless they wring a "we'll take point" response from the US(because otherwise it would shift virtually all of the burden on the Europeans).

It is not quite that easy. Unless the UN sanctions an invasion, Germany for one is constitutionally prohibited from intervening. And if Germany does not go along or is even legally obligated to block it, then the EU is unable to act as a whole. And France has no intention of going it alone, Britain has not the capability.

[Lonestar]

It is not quite that easy. Unless the UN sanctions an invasion, Germany for one is constitutionally prohibited from intervening. And if Germany does not go along or is even legally obligated to block it, then the EU is unable to act as a whole. And France has no intention of going it alone, Britain has not the capability.

Sounds like quite a pickle then. But for the US it's a SEP.

[Big Orange]

And there's the other, much larger, aspect to this. The regimes of the Middle East are carefully watching what goes on in Libya. So far, Gaddafi is demonstrating that other nations of the world are content to stand by, wring their hands, and mumble mostly-empty threats of action while he claws his way back to power atop a heap of corpses. So now other countries, like Bahrain, are feeling free to be a little more unrestrained about using force to resolve their little disputes. The strongest words of condemnation about Bahrain bringing in Saudi troops to crack down on anti-government protesters have come from . . . are you ready for this . . . Iran (though this is more to do with the traditional Shia/Sunni enmity than any desire on Iran's part to see a flowering of democracy in their back yard.)

Yes, it's a very shitty situation and Quaddafi's in a much more tenable position now in the past week due to the rebellion being a total ragbag that doesn't seem to stand a chance against the regrouped Libyan military; half-competently used 1970s/1980s Soviet hardware is going to comprehensibly curbstomp guys in pick up trucks, with reasonable air and artillery support for a 3rd world military making things truly nightmarish. Heck the clowns we've seen on that highway looked like they could be easily mowed down by machine-gun and mortar fire alone.

But I don't see how the Quaddafi regime is going to carry on in medium to long run after many of the rebels are likely going to get tipped into mass graves, making them martyrs to their surviving family and friends, and making Libya even more of a pariah state (the British corporate/political establishment would especially look bad by having many significant dealings with the drooling lunatic who's demolishing half "his" country). And Quaddafi's not going to be around forever, though in recent years he may actually be little more than a nutty spokesperson for the Libyan dictatorship, with his ruthless and intelligent looking son (Saif al-Islam Gaddafi) perhaps calling the shots on the ground.

[Pu-239]

Noises are being made about authorizing airstrikes.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... o-fly-zone

The United Nations security council is planning to vote later on Thursday on a draft resolution that would not only introduce a no-fly zone over Libya but would authorise the use of air strikes to stop the advance of forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.

The draft, supported by the US, Britain, France and Germany, reflects a shift by Washington, alarmed by the speed at which the uprising is collapsing and concerned at the possibility of a massacre in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

The US until this week had been totally opposed to becoming involved militarily in Libya.

The US ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, told reporters on Wednesday night after a day of intensive negotiation: "We need to be prepared to contemplate steps that include, but perhaps go beyond, a no-fly zone at this point, as the situation on the ground has evolved, and as a no-fly zone has inherent limitations in terms of protection of civilians at immediate risk."

Although a vote has been pencilled in for Thursday afternoon, schedules have a tendency to slip at the UN. Russia and China, which both have a veto on the the 15-member security council, could yet block it.

A UN resolution would pave the way for military action that could involve the US, and other members of Nato such as Britain and France, as well as Arab states. The US remains opposed to putting troops on the ground to create 'safe havens' and instead sees planes being used to stop tanks advancing towards Benghazi or ships loyal to Gaddafi bombarding the city.

[Thanas]

High ranking Air Force General apparently shares Skimmer's opinion:

The Case for a No-Fly Zone

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

“This is a pretty easy problem, for crying out loud.”

For all the hand-wringing in Washington about a no-fly zone over Libya, that’s the verdict of Gen. Merrill McPeak, a former Air Force chief of staff. He flew more than 6,000 hours, half in fighter aircraft, and helped oversee no-fly zones in Iraq and the Adriatic, and he’s currently mystified by what he calls the “wailing and gnashing of teeth” about imposing such a zone on Libya.

I called General McPeak to get his take on a no-fly zone, and he was deliciously blunt:

“I can’t imagine an easier military problem,” he said. “If we can’t impose a no-fly zone over a not even third-rate military power like Libya, then we ought to take a hell of a lot of our military budget and spend it on something usable.”

He continued: “Just flying a few jets across the top of the friendlies would probably be enough to ground the Libyan Air Force, which is the objective.”

General McPeak added that there would be no need to maintain 24/7 coverage over Libya. As long as the Libyan Air Force knew that there was some risk of interception, its pilots would be much less motivated to drop bombs and more inclined to defect.

“If we can’t do this, what can we do?” he asked, adding: “I think it would have a real impact. It might change their calculation of who might come out on top. Just the mere announcement of this might have an impact.”

Along with a no-fly zone, another important step would be to use American military aircraft to jam Libyan state television and radio propaganda and Libyan military communications. General McPeak said such jamming would be “dead easy.”

As he acknowledged, any intervention also has unforeseeable risks, and, frankly, it’s a good thing when a president counts to 10 before taking military action. But I hope that President Obama isn’t counting to a googolplex.

The secretary of defense, Robert Gates, has said that a no-fly zone would be “a big operation in a big country” and would begin with an attack on Libyan air defense systems. But General McPeak said that the no-fly zone would be imposed over those parts of the country that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi doesn’t control. That may remove the need to take out air defense systems pre-emptively, he said. And, in any case, he noted that the United States operated a no-fly zone over Iraq for more than a decade without systematically eradicating all Iraqi air defense systems in that time.

If the Obama administration has exaggerated the risks of a no-fly zone, it seems to have downplayed the risks of continued passivity. There is some risk that this ends up like the abortive uprisings in Hungary in 1956, in Czechoslovakia in 1968, or in southern Iraq in 1991.

The tide in Libya seems to have shifted, with the Qaddafi forces reimposing control over Tripoli and much of western Libya. Now Colonel Qaddafi is systematically using his air power to gain ground even in the east. As the International Institute for Strategic Studies, an arms analysis group in London, noted this week, “The major advantage of the pro-regime forces at the moment is their ability to deploy air power.”

I’m chilled by a conversation I just had by phone with a Libyan friend with military connections who has been candid in the past. In our latest conversation, he sounded as if our conversation was being closely monitored, and he praised Colonel Qaddafi to the skies. I can’t tell whether he believed that or had a gun pointed to his head. Either way, his new tone is an indication that the government has the upper hand now in Tripoli.

Senator John Kerry, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, told me that he tends to favor a no-fly zone — along with the jamming of communications — as soon as is practical. “The last thing you want is a 20-year debate on who lost this moment for the Libyan people,” Mr. Kerry noted.

I was a strong opponent of the Iraq war, but this feels different. We would not have to send any ground troops to Libya, and a no-fly zone would be executed at the request of Libyan rebel forces and at the “demand” of six Arab countries in the gulf. The Arab League may endorse the no-fly zone as well, and, ideally, Egypt and Tunisia would contribute bases and planes or perhaps provide search-and-rescue capabilities.

“I don’t think it's particularly constructive for our long-term strategic interests, as well as for our values, to say Qaddafi has to go,” Senator Kerry told me, “and then allow a delusional, megalomaniacal, out-of-touch leader to use mercenaries to kill his people.”

So let’s remember the risks of inaction — and not psych ourselves out. For crying out loud.

[cosmicalstorm]

Well they will probably fail in their attempt to overthrow him, but at least this ought to wipe that confident smirk of his lips. Now, any time in the future when he tries to sell himself of as the poster-boy for Arab freedom, people will remember the Youtube videos of protesting crowds being machine-gunned.

Quoting myself from a month ago in this thread, I had a feeling it was going to end up this way. Now it seems everyone is going to talk about "possible action" until the whole thing is over, after that I expect the global community to play the blame game until international media drops the Libya matter. Poor people who live there, I guess they are going to be massacred pretty bad. Who can blame Obama and the USA from not wanting to intervene? the political left here in Sweden have spent eight years screaming bloody murder over the Iraq war.

[The Romulan Republic]

What I want to know is, if the worst happens and that murdering fuck holds onto power, what happens when he dies? He's pretty old, isn't he?

[Aaron]

Didn't the Rebels ask for our help though?

Sarevok was totally correct earlier in the thread when Sanchez and I argued that the Libyans needed to do this on their own, we should have intervened as soon as possible. And now Qaddafi is getting away with murder.

So I suppose in a few months will be back to buying Libyan oil like nothing happened. Go us.

[cosmicalstorm]

What I want to know is, if the worst happens and that murdering fuck holds onto power, what happens when he dies? He's pretty old, isn't he?

He is surrounded by people who really run the place, he is a lunatic himself so power over Libya probably does not depend on his person. Maybe there would be civil war between different fractions after he dies.

[Pu-239]

Supposedly the aforementioned UN proposed resolution for NFZ and more importantly possibly airstrikes amd 'other measures' might actually pass since despite Russian and Chinese objections they tend to abstain if it does not directly concern them. Although given that Russia is benefitting from higher oil prices...

[wautd]

I'm afraid that by doing nothing, the west will support genocide. I hope I'll be proven wrong but Qaddafi and his stooges already said there will be no remorse against the rebels.

[MKSheppard]

You only need supercarriers if your fighter pilots are incompetent fools who decide to waste shittons of fuel manouvering like it's TOP GUN the movie.

F-15C Eagle combat radius with 4 x AIM-120 and the CFTs: 840 nautical miles. You take off and fight at 50,000 feet for five minutes at maximum thrust.

The commonly quoted 400 nm combat radius is when you decide to fight over the target area at 10,000 feet and burn enough fuel to generate 144,000 feet of manouver energy.

Source: US Air Force F-15C CFT Standardf Aircraft Characteristics, February 1992.
(It lists AIM-7F, but AIM-120 is an acceptable substitute).

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

What I want to know is, if the worst happens and that murdering fuck holds onto power, what happens when he dies? He's pretty old, isn't he?

He's only . . . what, 68? And he enjoys a wealthy First World standard of care and living. Sure, he'll die of old age, but that won't be for another couple of decades. The only way he'll die before the end of this decade is if someone goes out of their way to inhume him. And even then, his sons and favored relatives are all highly competent statesmen and military leaders in their own right. Gaddafi's machinery of terror can go on just fine without him.

[Zixinus]

What happens if the fucker dies a well-deserved miserable death? Another one takes his place, namely his son. Next question?

[Simon_Jester]

Yeah, Shep.

That ties into something I asked but never got an answer to:

Would we (for a hypothetical 'we' that includes both the US and the EU nations) really need carriers to control the Libyan coast, when we can fly planes out of Sicily or Greece?

[Shroom Man 777]

Being closer would help, and since carriers would come with warships, you'd have more staying power.

[Raj Ahten]

The rebels desperately need a victory at this point otherwise everyone will think Kaddafi is unstoppable. Unfortunately the rebel tactics have been retarded as far as I can tell. They mostly mill about in the open at checkpoints on the highways. This might partly have to do with the fact that many of Libya'[s towns are easily surrounded and then shelled into surrender. As noted earlier hopefully the more broken terrain around Benghazi will give them some defensive advantage. Turning it into an urban fight is also entirely to their advantage; especially if they field fortify structures. Actually even fox holes have been lacking so far in the engagements I've seen online. They need people to dig as well as to shoot. This is where the revolutions lack of organization really hurts. If there was any real authority the enthusiastic revolutionary crowds could be put to good use filling sand bags.