Iran Elections Thread

[CJvR]

One has to wonder if the regime had started to belive in it's own propaganda...
They sure seem disconnected from reality.

[Straha]

Yes this is true. The regime does seem to be cracking a bit, with the Guardian Council admitting over 100% of votes in many cities, and unconfirmed reports that 40 of the 86 members of the Expediency Council SUPPORT Rafsanjani's proposed replacement of the Leader with a "Supreme Council" of sorts. Also reports that Khamenei will again deliver the Friday Prayer from Tehran, with further reports that Rafsanjani will have a rebuttal of sorts afterwards.

There's a lot more support for a Supreme Council. That was what was originally in the constitution, everyone knew that nobody would have the support of Khomeini, so they decided to make it that when he left the Supreme leadership could be divided between three Ayatollahs of sufficient rank. Something which partially grafts ancient Shia clerical tradition to the idea of the Supreme Leadership (they don't fit together well.)

Except the constitution was rejiggered right before Khomeini died so that you had to have one person in the office and couldn't split it (expressly to hand it over to Khamenei). A lot of papers and people have agitated for a return to the old system as opposed to how it currently stands, but there's never been the necessary political motivation to carry out the change. Now there might be.

Well, then the question is where do the protests against the regime go now that the police and Basiji are out in force? It's clear that we're in a new phase, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

The protesters go back out into the street, or into the workplace by striking (or slowing work), over and over and over again until the government deals with them.

As for where this goes, I don't think anyone knows. That's why Mousavi, Karroubi and Rezai are calling for the election to be annulled, and the regime are saying over and over again that the election, despite some irregularity, is accurate. If there was a clear way forward someone would have picked it. Now we wait and see until the next event changes the playing field.

I also know that a serious split in the ruling elite has taken place, which isn't something you can slap a bandaid on or supress with mere force. If heavier security remains on the streets, and the protests are successfully subdued, then how does that split in religious leadership come into play?

As long as that rift is there the protests can't be subdued. Iran is a very religious country, when everyone goes back to their mosque and hears their village cleric declare that the results of the election are invalid and the government illegitimate the people will keep protesting. The government can't crack down on them because then they lose all legitimacy that they hold dear internally, and it can't let them go on because they question the government's legitimacy. The rift needs to be healed or staunched first, then reconciliation with the people can come about.

That is, unless the regime switches openly from being a Islamic Democracy to being a Military Juntocracy. But that's a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Or has this whole protest movement already reached critical mass (emotionally, number of people involved, and so on) and is impossible to put down on the streets until the regime is eventually forced to back off someway or another?

I think so. Without serious attempts to either return sovereignty to the people, or a closing of the rift at the top (which may be impossible without returning sovereignty to the people), the protesters wont go away without brutal suppression by the government. A government which lacks the political capital or will to pull off such oppression.

[Straha]

More evidence for Fraud. Novel stuff too. I wouldn't have thought to check for that. (Though it does add to my theory that 9/10ths of serious academic innovation is done by drunk grad students.)

[CaptainChewbacca]

More evidence for Fraud. Novel stuff too. I wouldn't have thought to check for that. (Though it does add to my theory that 9/10ths of serious academic innovation is done by drunk grad students.)

I actually remember nonrandom numbers showing up in falsified election results being a plot point on an episode of Numb3rs a few years back. It's interesting to see.

[Aratech]

More evidence for Fraud. Novel stuff too. I wouldn't have thought to check for that. (Though it does add to my theory that 9/10ths of serious academic innovation is done by drunk grad students.)

I actually remember nonrandom numbers showing up in falsified election results being a plot point on an episode of Numb3rs a few years back. It's interesting to see.

Saw that episode myself. That's the last time I say 'won't happen in real life.'

Has anyone heard anything else coming out of the country? I haven't been able to get any new info.

[Straha]

Has anyone heard anything else coming out of the country? I haven't been able to get any new info.

There's going to be a memorial service for Neda on Thursday, a few more Ayatollahs have come out against the results, it appears the commander of the Revolutionary Guard for the Tehran Province has been arrested (but no confirmation, so take it with a grain of salt), people are calling for the releasing of the bodies of the Martyrs from the hospitals by the government, and Karroubi held a rally and speech today with some more to say.

[Aratech]

Has anyone heard anything else coming out of the country? I haven't been able to get any new info.

There's going to be a memorial service for Neda on Thursday, a few more Ayatollahs have come out against the results, it appears the commander of the Revolutionary Guard for the Tehran Province has been arrested (but no confirmation, so take it with a grain of salt), people are calling for the releasing of the bodies of the Martyrs from the hospitals by the government, and Karroubi held a rally and speech today with some more to say.

In other words, for the Supreme Leader, the situation continues to deteriorate?

[MKSheppard]

That is, unless the regime switches openly from being a Islamic Democracy to being a Military Juntocracy. But that's a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Uh what? It's in no way an Islamic Democracy. Not when the Ayotallahs cancel 200+ candidates and only let their 4 hand picked candidates stand for election.

It's essentially a Military Theocracy.

[Knife]

That is, unless the regime switches openly from being a Islamic Democracy to being a Military Juntocracy. But that's a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Uh what? It's in no way an Islamic Democracy. Not when the Ayotallahs cancel 200+ candidates and only let their 4 hand picked candidates stand for election.

It's essentially a Military Theocracy.

Lol, ironically enough, the US only lets two handpicked candidates stand for election. Guess, they're more democratic than us.

[Prannon]

That is, unless the regime switches openly from being a Islamic Democracy to being a Military Juntocracy. But that's a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Uh what? It's in no way an Islamic Democracy. Not when the Ayotallahs cancel 200+ candidates and only let their 4 hand picked candidates stand for election.

It's essentially a Military Theocracy.

Not officially it isn't, and it's official status is what matters in this case. In the past they've allowed reformist candidates to run and win, so as far as the common man was concerned his voice was being heard just enough for him to be satisfied. And that's why it would be a big deal for the government to openly switch to being a military/police state by putting these protests down with violence, because then then the blinders would be removed from the public's eyes on what the state really is. Then there are more protests not only from the public but also from clerics who like the legitimacy of the Islamic system through some popular democracy.

[MKSheppard]

Lol, ironically enough, the US only lets two handpicked candidates stand for election. Guess, they're more democratic than us.

Last I checked, there was a whole bunch of people on the ballot for POTUS in the last couple of elections who didn't have (D) or (R) after their name; and there wasn't a council of Imans, Rabbis, and Bishops deciding who's qualified to run in elections in the US.

Link to NPR

There are about 7,000 candidates running for 290 seats in the parliament. A non-elected council has disqualified nearly 2,000 would-be candidates, most of them reformers.

Iran's leaders say this is democracy. Critics in Iran say it's hardly democratic.


....

The Guardian Council holds the power to qualify or disqualify candidates. The council consists of six high-ranking clerics, and six jurists, appointed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

[erik_t]

Uh what? It's in no way an Islamic Democracy. Not when the Ayotallahs cancel 200+ candidates and only let their 4 hand picked candidates stand for election.

It's essentially a Military Theocracy.

Lol, ironically enough, the US only lets two handpicked candidates stand for election. Guess, they're more democratic than us.

Hand-picked by tens of millions of hands. What are you, retarded?

[CJvR]

Lol, ironically enough, the US only lets two handpicked candidates stand for election. Guess, they're more democratic than us.

Well each of the big parties run one candidate, would be rather stupid to run two and split the vote. Those candidates are also elected in the primaries. There is nothing preventing more candidates from running in the elections though. In Iran you need permission from a dozen of the most narrowminded conservative fundamentalists in the country to even be allowed to run.

[Samuel]

That is, unless the regime switches openly from being a Islamic Democracy to being a Military Juntocracy. But that's a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Uh what? It's in no way an Islamic Democracy. Not when the Ayotallahs cancel 200+ candidates and only let their 4 hand picked candidates stand for election.

It's essentially a Military Theocracy.

Lol, ironically enough, the US only lets two handpicked candidates stand for election. Guess, they're more democratic than us.

I know that the US two party system is a bit frustrating, but
1) That does not make the US any less a democracy.
2) Many of the minor parties are crazier than the Republicans.

Not officially it isn't, and it's official status is what matters in this case. In the past they've allowed reformist candidates to run and win, so as far as the common man was concerned his voice was being heard just enough for him to be satisfied. And that's why it would be a big deal for the government to openly switch to being a military/police state by putting these protests down with violence, because then then the blinders would be removed from the public's eyes on what the state really is. Then there are more protests not only from the public but also from clerics who like the legitimacy of the Islamic system through some popular democracy.

It doesn't really count as a democracy if voting is only allowed as long as the results are what the people in power want and when they get a result they don't like they toss it out.

[Eframepilot]

It doesn't really count as a democracy if voting is only allowed as long as the results are what the people in power want and when they get a result they don't like they toss it out.

While Iran's system certainly isn't a true democracy, the key point is that it was widely perceived as one by the public, who believed that their votes did have an input on the government. Now it has been revealed as a total sham, manipulated by an absolute dictator who staged a national election and completely lied about the results.

[Prannon]

Eframepilot made my point for me, and I should point out that despite the handicaps placed on the opposition in the past, they did get Khatami in office from 1997 to 2005. There is at least the illusion of transparency when the people in charge at least allow the opposition to take office. That's all gone now, and the people aren't happy about it.

[CJvR]

...the key point is that it was widely perceived as one by the public, who believed that their votes did have an input on the government. Now it has been revealed as a total sham, manipulated by an absolute dictator who staged a national election and completely lied about the results.

Yes, that is what is so surprising. Why bother disqualifying 99+% of the candidates and then still cheat? The entire purpose of the system was to make sure the people didn't vote wrong by only giving them candidates that were acceptable to the Ayatollahs.

This reminds me of Dr Strangelove and the secret doomsday device...

[Lord of the Abyss]

...the key point is that it was widely perceived as one by the public, who believed that their votes did have an input on the government. Now it has been revealed as a total sham, manipulated by an absolute dictator who staged a national election and completely lied about the results.

Yes, that is what is so surprising. Why bother disqualifying 99+% of the candidates and then still cheat? The entire purpose of the system was to make sure the people didn't vote wrong by only giving them candidates that were acceptable to the Ayatollahs.

My guess is that the cheating was done for the benefit of Ahmadinejad and whomever supports him, not by "the system" in general. Which is which we are seeing a split among the powerful and not just discontent from below. The system would have done just fine letting Ahmadinejad lose; but Ahmadinejad and whoever is in his faction would not.

[Straha]

That is, unless the regime switches openly from being a Islamic Democracy to being a Military Juntocracy. But that's a lot more trouble than it's worth.

Uh what? It's in no way an Islamic Democracy. Not when the Ayotallahs cancel 200+ candidates and only let their 4 hand picked candidates stand for election.

The Ayatollahs vet the candidates for all national elections, but they let candidates who disagree with them through the net, generally reflecting the people's will. Case in point, in the last election to the Assembly of Experts they let through quite a few candidates who were perceived as opponents of Ahmadinejad and Khameni, and they went to win on every election.

While Iran's system certainly isn't a true democracy, the key point is that it was widely perceived as one by the public, who believed that their votes did have an input on the government. Now it has been revealed as a total sham, manipulated by an absolute dictator who staged a national election and completely lied about the results.

Their votes have had an effect. The Majlis elections in 2000, the election of Khatami, and the recent Assembly of Experts elections have all brought change, in small ways or large, to Iran. The regime is trying to take that away from them, and that's what rankles the people so much. It's taking away their only influence on the government, and they don't want to let the government get away with it without a fight.

It doesn't really count as a democracy if voting is only allowed as long as the results are what the people in power want and when they get a result they don't like they toss it out.

This has never happened before, which is why it's causing such a row now. See above.



In other news:

The Guardian Council says it could overturn the votes, but it won't.

The U.K. is reported as having recalled its ambassador, there's also a list in there at 1:25 PM showing a number of prominent figures (including regime figures) who have been confirmed as arrested.

The Iranian authorities tell the Family of Neda not to mourn or, indeed, hold a funeral.

George Friedman is an idiot, again.

Ahh, the issue on the British diplomats has been clarified:

Reuters reports that Britain is expelling two Iranian diplomats after Iran forced two British diplomats to leave. The tit-for-tat comes after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have repeatedly accused Britain of meddling in Iranian affairs since the disputed election of 12 June, and Khamenei in Friday prayers said Britain is "evil".

And that's it for now. A strike is on, but no reports on how effective it was (yet), and regional protests have been called at local councils for tomorrow.

[Straha]

Iranian football players who wore green have been banned from Iran for life.

Some interesting thoughts from the Bagehot correspondent at the Economist.

[Tribun]

The regime now says that the whole Neda issue is just a big forgery and even denies that they use lethal ammo at all. This is beyond fucked up and also shows that they simply have no idea how to go against the net, which already has circulated the footage around the world.

Even though I think they'll come out of this still in power, things won't be again as they once were.

[wautd]

They sure seem disconnected from reality.

Yeah, I expected more from holocaust denying religious fundamentalists

[CJvR]

Yeah, I expected more from holocaust denying religious fundamentalists

LOL! Yeah good point.

[Straha]

News from the State media indicates that ~30% of people were on strike today. IF they got that many, you can only imagine how many people didn't show up.

Also, all accounts say that it appears Rafsanjani is building a rather large coalition of businessmen, clerics, Artesh and Pasdaran officers, and more and is just waiting for the scales of power to stop swinging about so much before he comes in and settles everything. As he is an inveterate opponents to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad this could only be bad for them.

Yeah, I expected more from holocaust denying religious fundamentalists

Don't castigate all Iranians by Ahmadinejad's insanity. And the Shia Clerics are almost all not fundamentalists. They tend to take a very reasoned, open-minded approach to religion. With a few notable exceptions, like Ayatollah Yazdi. It's not really an apt comparison in the details, but their approach to religion is more like the Catholic Church's as opposed to Sunni Islam's trend towards fundamentalism.

[Aratech]

This Just In.

In a blatant act of defiance, a group of Mullahs took to the streets of Tehran, to protest election results that returned incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power.

Whether these clerics voted for Ahmadinejad or one of the opposition candidates is unknown. What is important here, is the decision to march against the will of Iran's supreme leader who called the results final and declared demonstrations illegal.

In the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mullahs rule supreme. They are the country's conservative clerics; the guardians of the Islamic revolution and its ideologies. They're loyal only to God and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iranian opposition supporters took to the streets in protest of their candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi's loss in the June 12 presidential elections.

They alleged the elections were rigged. Moussavi asked to annul the results and hold new vote. Ayatollah Khamenei rejected the proposal, backed Ahmadinejad and called on people not to demonstrate or else face the consequences.

Why do I have the feeling things are now going to get extremely ugly?