March 4 primary discussion and results

[Civil War Man]

I started this thread early to give us a place to discuss, and also cover the results as they come in tomorrow.

A thread like this is also the best place to bring up Obama's rally at URI (University of Rhode Island for those who don't know) on March 1st. Unfortunately, I was travelling, so I wasn't able to attend myself. My mother did go, though. Let's just say that Obama's run is at this point less of a campaign and more of a movement.

They managed to fit 5,000 people inside the gymnasium where it was held, which I believe is its max capacity (maybe a little more). Since it was at max capacity, the next 5,000 people who arrived were left waiting outside in the snow (the thing my mother found amazing was that nobody was complaining about this). By the way, that excess 5,000 does not include the people who showed up, saw the size of the line, and then left. That's at least 10,000 people who went to the event and stayed for a chance to see Barack. There was so much traffic going in that people were parking a couple miles away and walking to the event. When Obama did arrive, he gave a speech specifically to the mass of people waiting outside before he went inside and did the speech he had gone there to do.

By comparison, Hillary's event, which was held at the same venue, didn't fill the gym to capacity. Estimates are 2,500 people attended her rally, which was about the same number that Michelle Obama brought in. Also apparently Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea combined (all three held rallies in Rhode Island at different times recently) didn't bring in as many people as Barack Obama did.

Something tells me that Obama has a decent chance at taking Rhode Island, which is a state everyone assumed would vote Hillary because the Clintons did some major campaigning for state Democrats in years past.

[Xisiqomelir]

Let's lay out predictions. I'm going to follow convention and say:

TX: Obama destroys the caucus portion, slight edge in the primary portion. Sizable delegate lead.
VT: Total slaughter. Let's say a 20 point lead for our guy. Massive delegate lead.
RI: Slight loss in the vote because of Clinton home court advantage. Tied delegates.
OH: Fucks up like it's the championship again. Still, probably tied delegates.

Overall, the score ends up 2 to 2, but Obama comes out ahead in delegates and Hollory is done barring MI/FL shens (which Dean will probably smack down anyway).

[Rogue 9]

Let's just say that Obama's run is at this point less of a campaign and more of a movement.

That's exactly how NPR put it a few days ago on Morning Edition.

And it frightens me to some degree. Not that I see anything particularly wrong with Obama; it just makes me nervous when a politician of any political stripe begins to form a cult of personality like that.

[SirNitram]

It's desperately frightening when people get engaged in politics. What, do they think it effects their lives? No, everyone should ignore politics and decry those who give a shit about them. Anyone who deviates is part of a dangerous cult of personality.

Yes, Rogue, I'm mocking you.

[Stravo]

Let's just say that Obama's run is at this point less of a campaign and more of a movement.

That's exactly how NPR put it a few days ago on Morning Edition.

And it frightens me to some degree. Not that I see anything particularly wrong with Obama; it just makes me nervous when a politician of any political stripe begins to form a cult of personality like that.

I take it as a sign of how hungry America is for some leadership and change. 8 years of hell - most Americans however turned in the second part of this term, but there's no doubt that the last 8 years has cast a pall on everything especially when it comes to political discourse.

What I find most enlightening is that it seems any negative campaigning is met with very harsh rebukes from the people. Obamma has generally been positive throughout but any attempts at negativity from Hillary has been met with little results and in the case of the debate last week, actual boos from the audience. That tells me Americans don't want business as usual. They want this race to be about the issues and also I think they don't want to hear negative things about someone who is promising them a change.

You get the sense that people really believe him and when people push and press on certain points they really can't explain why.

I think it's because of the hunger for something, anything, different than what we've had. I think people are sick of war, sick of fear, sick of the establishment and I would think that midterm elections come next cycle are going to be extremely interesting. If you're an incumbent I think you're at a disadvantage in this current climate.

Voter dissatisfaction is at an all time high with both branches of government and they want a clean sweep. It's a "throw da bums out" kind of electorate right now and they're tired of the rhetoric of fear and the uncertainty that has plagued us since 9/11.

Obamma has tapped into something I haven't seen in my lifetime. I want to see where this goes. Too bad that bitch is trying to muck it all up.

[HemlockGrey]

It's desperately frightening when people get engaged in politics. What, do they think it effects their lives? No, everyone should ignore politics and decry those who give a shit about them. Anyone who deviates is part of a dangerous cult of personality.

Anyway...

I was in Ohio canvassing over the weekend, and the Obama ground campaign is definitely much, much more organized and effective than the Clinton ground game. The campaign has ceded some hardcore Strickland country to Clinton, but the state is definitely in play. Considering that Obama has consistently outperformed his polls in the states he's won- since so many new voters are motivated to vote, it screws with the "likely voter" formula- I'd predict a win at this point. One thing I heard a lot of is Republicans who were planning on voting for Obama in the primary; both because they hated Hillary and because they were genuinely planning on supporting Obama in the fall.

[Vehrec]

Some Obama supporters informed me that it was an open primary and that I would not need to register as a democrat to vote. I say this is awesome, and if true I will exploit it.

[Patrick Degan]

Well, it was reported on NPR this morning that Hillary Clinton intends to press on with her campaign no matter the outcome of the Texas and Ohio votes.

[Stravo]

Well, it was reported on NPR this morning that Hillary Clinton intends to press on with her campaign no matter the outcome of the Texas and Ohio votes.

What is she hoping to gain here. Seriously. Can't be pride, she left that way behind when she put up with Bubba's philandering and public humiliations. If you lose Texas and Ohio what do you have left to make an argument that you're the people's choice?

If she keeps on going someone from the party needs to sit down with her and explain to her that she's damaging the party at this point and if she keeps on going the party will withdraw all kinds of support and she'll be out there on her own.

Why am I not surprised her harpy hold on power doesn't want to let go?

[CaptainChewbacca]

Well, it was reported on NPR this morning that Hillary Clinton intends to press on with her campaign no matter the outcome of the Texas and Ohio votes.

What is she hoping to gain here. Seriously. Can't be pride, she left that way behind when she put up with Bubba's philandering and public humiliations. If you lose Texas and Ohio what do you have left to make an argument that you're the people's choice?

If she keeps on going someone from the party needs to sit down with her and explain to her that she's damaging the party at this point and if she keeps on going the party will withdraw all kinds of support and she'll be out there on her own.

Why am I not surprised her harpy hold on power doesn't want to let go?

To answer your question, she's hoping to manufacture victory.

Clinton Tries to Raise Bar for Obama

WACO, Texas (AP) - Recasting what would keep her campaign alive, Hillary Rodham Clinton's advisers said Friday that if rival Barack Obama loses any of Tuesday's four presidential primaries, it would show Democrats are having second thoughts about him.
In an e-mail and conference call to reporters, Clinton's campaign sought to raise the stakes for the Illinois senator in next week's primaries and also laid the groundwork to keep her campaign alive if the results are disappointing.

Obama heads into Tuesday's primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont riding a streak of 11 consecutive primary and caucus wins and leading the former first lady in the popular vote, committed delegates and fundraising.

In the conference call, senior Clinton strategist Howard Wolfson seized on those facts to reshape expectations about the Democratic contest.

"They are outspending us at least two to one in Ohio and Texas," Wolfson said. "If they are unable to win these states, it sends a very clear signal that Democrats want this campaign to continue. Obama has every advantage going into this election. If Senator Obama is in fact the de facto nominee, he ought to win all four."

A loss for Obama in even one of the four states Tuesday would indicate Democrats have developed a case of "buyer's remorse," Wolfson said. "It would show that Senator Obama is having trouble closing the deal with Democrats."

As recently as Feb. 20, Clinton's husband, former President Clinton, was singing a different tune about what it would take to keep her candidacy afloat beyond Tuesday.

"If she wins in Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee," the former president told a Beaumont, Texas, audience. "If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be."

Bill Clinton's assertion that his wife must win both Texas and Ohio to keep her campaign alive reflects a widely held view among political analysts.

Polls now give her a modest lead in Ohio and show Texas is a toss-up; earlier she had large leads in both states.

So, if Obama doesn't blow her out in all 4 states, it is (according to her) a sign that he's loosing momentum.

[Mr Bean]

Nothing would please me more than to come home from work tomorrow morning(Working till 0100 hah) to find Obama has won 15 strait contests. However I don't think it will happen, I don't hold out hopes for Ohio, I can see him swinging the other three(And dominating in Vermont) but Ohio, oh wretched Ohio does not know any better.

[Stravo]

Nothing would please me more than to come home from work tomorrow morning(Working till 0100 hah) to find Obama has won 15 strait contests. However I don't think it will happen, I don't hold out hopes for Ohio, I cans ee him swinging the other three(And dominating in Vermont) but Ohio, oh wretched Ohio does not know any better.

Ohio turned it for Bush last election as well. Not a big fan of the voting public in Ohio.

[Mr Bean]

Ohio turned it for Bush last election as well. Not a big fan of the voting public in Ohio.

If he had wanted the state he should have spent much more time here in person providing converting the masses with Obama Hope(TM) direct from the source.

As it is, to few rallys, no enough speeches he can't take the state with anything but a narrow win.

[Rogue 9]

It's desperately frightening when people get engaged in politics. What, do they think it effects their lives? No, everyone should ignore politics and decry those who give a shit about them. Anyone who deviates is part of a dangerous cult of personality.

Yes, Rogue, I'm mocking you.

I kind of figured. I'm not even going to dignify such a ridiculous strawman with a response. Let me know if you want to give it another shot without going on about stuff I didn't say.

That's exactly how NPR put it a few days ago on Morning Edition.

And it frightens me to some degree. Not that I see anything particularly wrong with Obama; it just makes me nervous when a politician of any political stripe begins to form a cult of personality like that.

I take it as a sign of how hungry America is for some leadership and change. 8 years of hell - most Americans however turned in the second part of this term, but there's no doubt that the last 8 years has cast a pall on everything especially when it comes to political discourse.

What I find most enlightening is that it seems any negative campaigning is met with very harsh rebukes from the people. Obamma has generally been positive throughout but any attempts at negativity from Hillary has been met with little results and in the case of the debate last week, actual boos from the audience. That tells me Americans don't want business as usual. They want this race to be about the issues and also I think they don't want to hear negative things about someone who is promising them a change.

You get the sense that people really believe him and when people push and press on certain points they really can't explain why.

I think it's because of the hunger for something, anything, different than what we've had. I think people are sick of war, sick of fear, sick of the establishment and I would think that midterm elections come next cycle are going to be extremely interesting. If you're an incumbent I think you're at a disadvantage in this current climate.

Voter dissatisfaction is at an all time high with both branches of government and they want a clean sweep. It's a "throw da bums out" kind of electorate right now and they're tired of the rhetoric of fear and the uncertainty that has plagued us since 9/11.

Obamma has tapped into something I haven't seen in my lifetime. I want to see where this goes. Too bad that bitch is trying to muck it all up.

Now that's better.

For the record, if he is in the general election then, barring unforeseen developments, I will vote for Barack Obama. There are many reasons to do so that don't involve being enamored with him personally, and there's nothing wrong with that. What I was referencing was that when volunteers for his campaign were interviewed for the story in question, they were waxing poetic about how it isn't a campaign anymore; it's the Barack Obama Movement, and it will continue well past the election. Which isn't in itself bad; what was disconcerting (which is a better word for what I mean than frightening; apologies if my word choice wasn't crystal clear) is that they made it quite clear that they weren't really in it for Obama's ideas; they were in it for Obama himself, influenced more by his personal charisma than by the strength of his ideas.

Do I think that Barack Obama will do anything untoward with this hold over his followers? No, I do not. I know better than to fall for the Manchurian Candidate bullshit that the nutjobs are spouting about him. It's just that such zeal for the man himself (and zeal is the right word) has historically proven that it can be highly dangerous when applied to the wrong man, and this is showing once again that people are more prone to follow personal magnetism than ideas on their strength alone.

As for "throw da bums out," you're damned straight, and it's something that's needed to happen for a good long time now. The only question is whether anything will come of it; after all, when everyone else's Congressmen send home federal money it's pork, but when yours does it, it's serving his constituency. Most people would readily vote out someone else's representatives if they got the chance, but they don't, and the ones they get to vote for are their own, who they tend to like.

Speaking of incumbents and the current political climate, I'm going to be old enough to run for the House myself come 2010. Hmmmmmm.

[Shinova]

On a different note, the Clinton vs Obama ad that runs along the bottom has become an Obama vs McCain ad.

[HemlockGrey]

Do I think that Barack Obama will do anything untoward with this hold over his followers? No, I do not. I know better than to fall for the Manchurian Candidate bullshit that the nutjobs are spouting about him. It's just that such zeal for the man himself (and zeal is the right word) has historically proven that it can be highly dangerous when applied to the wrong man, and this is showing once again that people are more prone to follow personal magnetism than ideas on their strength alone.

There is absolutely no doubt that a great deal of his strength comes from personal magnetism; I spoke to a lot of people in Ohio who were going to polls for Obama not because of his policies but because they were motivated by him personally. I agree that can be dangerous, but judging from his past positions and the fact that he's quite liberal I don't think there's much danger of him abusing that sort of mass-belief.

Of course, the average person doesn't do much policy analysis anyway; I hate to keep bringing up anecdotal evidence, but most of the Republicans I talked to were voting for McCain because of "security" and a lot of the Democrats were going for a Democrat because of "healthcare". They couldn't really speak to what about McCain's policies ensured America's security, nor could they speak to any specifics of either of the Dems healthcare plans.

[Haruko]

Well, it was reported on NPR this morning that Hillary Clinton intends to press on with her campaign no matter the outcome of the Texas and Ohio votes.

Yeah, I heard very early this morning that she was "considering" pushing all the way to June.

I've been hearing that she has the strong resolve not to lose because "she's a Clinton", but also that it's seriously doubted she'd be so extreme as to push all the way to June and maybe perform such desperation tactics as trying to get Florida and Michigan qualified for delegates.

I've remained tentative of the serious doubts people have been having, and this doesn't help.

[Pu-239]

Anyone else find Clinton's campaign reminiscent of Baghdad Bob?

[Civil War Man]

So as not to necro a thread, I'll post my thought here.

I just remembered that thread earlier about how some people were claiming McCain shouldn't be allowed to run because he was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Also apparently the people did the same with Barry Goldwater because he was born in Arizona when it was still a territory.

By their logic, I'm not allowed to run for President because I was born in Washington D.C.

[Civil War Man]

So as not to necro a thread, I'll post my thought here.

I just remembered that thread earlier about how some people were claiming McCain shouldn't be allowed to run because he was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Also apparently the people did the same with Barry Goldwater because he was born in Arizona when it was still a territory.

By their logic, I'm not allowed to run for President because I was born in Washington D.C.

Bolded should read "some people"

[TimothyC]

Some Obama supporters informed me that it was an open primary and that I would not need to register as a democrat to vote. I say this is awesome, and if true I will exploit it.

Technically it's Bullshit. Practically it's different.

In Ohio you have to declare a party, however, that declaration is done at the place and time of voting. When doing so you have three choices: Republican (which I have done in every single primary so far), Democrat, or Independent (Issues only - for example the community college is asking for a renewal of funds this time around).

As for me, I'll probably decide who I'll be voting for (I don't like any of my options right now) on the drive to my polling station (as I've said before ABM is my main voting issue, and Obama has made remarks against it in the past).

[Chris OFarrell]

Anyone else find Clinton's campaign reminiscent of Baghdad Bob?

THAT is what they need to do if Clinton goes uber negative as she gets desperate.

Have someone hire Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf and stand him in front of shots of huge Obama rallies in all the states he has won over Clinton again and again with him saying : "No, there is no Obama victory in *insert state here*!"

Of course the Republicans will probably spin THAT into 'Obama is pro Terrorist!' or something and so many US Sheep will believe it....

[CaptainChewbacca]

Anyone else find Clinton's campaign reminiscent of Baghdad Bob?

THAT is what they need to do if Clinton goes uber negative as she gets desperate.

Have someone hire Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf and stand him in front of shots of huge Obama rallies in all the states he has won over Clinton again and again with him saying : "No, there is no Obama victory in *insert state here*!"

Of course the Republicans will probably spin THAT into 'Obama is pro Terrorist!' or something and so many US Sheep will believe it....

I'm pretty sure al-Sahaf was either hanged recently, or is ABOUT to be hanged for his crimes against the Iraqi people.

[TithonusSyndrome]

Anyone else find Clinton's campaign reminiscent of Baghdad Bob?

THAT is what they need to do if Clinton goes uber negative as she gets desperate.

Have someone hire Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf and stand him in front of shots of huge Obama rallies in all the states he has won over Clinton again and again with him saying : "No, there is no Obama victory in *insert state here*!"

Of course the Republicans will probably spin THAT into 'Obama is pro Terrorist!' or something and so many US Sheep will believe it....

I'm pretty sure al-Sahaf was either hanged recently, or is ABOUT to be hanged for his crimes against the Iraqi people.

And what crimes would those be? Saeed's sense of journalistic integrity is surreal at best, but that's not a capital offense. At least not in the UAE where he's living with his family now, seeing as how he was never really in league with Saddam, who is rumored to have never even liked him, consistent with his demotion from Foreign Minister in 2001.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Sorry, guess I got him mixed up with Ali Hassan al-Majid, 'Chemical Ali'. My mistake.